Unlocked Sports
4* Vancouver/Minnesota UNDER 5
BEN BURNS
I'm playing on Virginia Tech and East Carolina to finish OVER the total. Having cashed quite a few 'under' tickets on them over the past couple of seasons, including last week, I'm well aware that Hokies have been a profitable 'under' team on Thursday nights. This is an entirely different matchup though, one which I expect will prove quite a lot more high-scoring than many are expecting. I won with the Pirates when they defeated Memphis 38-19 in their last game. I wasn't that surprised that they managed 38 points. After all, they'd scored 49 the previous week. However, a closer look shows that the Pirates were actually somewhat fortunate to only allow 19 points. That's because they allowed nearly 400 (397) total yards, including a whopping 313 through the air. That makes it six of seven opponents that have thrown for more than 260 yards against them. I expect the revenge-minded Hokies, who average greater than 30 points per game, to have plenty of success moving the ball, both on the ground and through the air. Two of the last three meetings between these teams have finished above the total. Including those results, the Pirates have seen the OVER go 5-2 their last seven against teams from the ACC. Note that they combined with North Carolina, a very strong defensive team with a mediocre offense, for 48 points. Facing a stronger offense, they combined with WVU for 55 the previous week. Including those results, the Pirates have seen the OVER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were listed as underdogs. As for the Hokies, including their earlier 52-10 victory over Marshall they've seen the OVER go 4-1 their last five against teams from Conference USA. Including their 34-26 win at Duke, the Hokies have seen the OVER go 3-1 the last four times that they were listed as road favorites and 6-3 the last nine times that they were favored by greater than eight points. Overall, they've seen the OVER go 11-6 their last 17 road games. More of the same here. *10 Top Thurs Total
I'm taking the points with MIAMI OHIO. The majority of the betting public would prefer to back the stronger team. They'll generally only take points with an underdog if that underdog is at home and/or is perceived to be a 'good' team. That's not the case here. Not only is Miami Ohio on the road but the RedHawks also come in with an ugly 1-8 record. Therefore, its not that surprising to see the line on favored Temple climb significantly from its opening number. I believe that has given us excellent value with the visiting underdogs. Yes, the Red Hawks have just one victory. However, that victory game in their last game(31-24 vs. Toledo) so they've got some positive momentum for this game. Additionally, despite the record, they've been quite competitive for six straight games now. They went 4-2 ATS over those games. Only one loss came by three touchdowns (lost by 24) and that was at Cincinnati, vs. a very powerful Bearcats team. Three of their last five losses have come by 10 points or less. Prior to the victory over Toledo, Miami Ohio lost by only five points vs. Northern Illinois. Bringing an impressive six game winning streak to the table, the Owls are to be respected. However, they just became bowl eligible with a big win over Navy last time out and I feel that they may start to get a little over-confident here, particularly when facing the "lowly RedHawks." As impressive as their season has been, the Owls haven't been blowing out teams. In fact, none of their last five victories has come by more than 16 points. For all the RedHawks problems, they're still 6-2 ATS their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 22-13 ATS their last 35 lined games against winning teams. The last meeting between these teams here was decided by a touchdown and I look for this one to also be closer than many are expecting. *9 Thurs GOW
I'm taking the points with EASTERN MICHIGAN. I believe that last week's results have helped to provide us with terrific line value here. The Eagles were blown out while the Huskies won by 17. However, the Eagles blowout loss came vs. an SEC team(Arkansas) and the Huskies' win (vs. Akron) was actually close the entire way. Off that victory, the Huskies are now being asked to win by three touchdowns. Yet, they've only beaten one 1-A team (Western Mich.) by more than 17 points all season. The Huskies do have a powerful running attack. However, they've got problems at the QB position and their passing attack isn't very good. That doesn't tend to lead to many huge blowouts. Prior to the win over Akron, their previous two games were decided by just six combined points. Despite their winless record, the Eagles have played some competitive games. Prior to the blowout loss vs. Arkansas, they lost by just two points vs. Ball State. While that was at home, earlier in the season, they went on the road and lost by only three at Northwestern. Note that they were 22 point underdogs in that one. Having been embarrassed 37-0 at home by the Huskies last season, the Eagles should bring some added motivation into tonight's game. Note that they won outright the last time that they played here at Northern Illinois. Additionally, note that the Eagles brought back 17 starters (most in the MAC) from last year's team while the Huskies brought back 11. Those 17 returning starters haven't forgotten last season. The Eagles are 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the 14.5 to 21 point range. They've scored 27 points in back to back games and I look for them to score enough to hang within the number this evening. *7 Roast
I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz have gotten off to a slow start. However, they're a very talented team and they've been very tough at home in recent seasons. I expect them to rise to the occasion and get on track this evening. The Spurs have won both home games. However, they lost their only road contest, a 92-85 setback at Chicago. Including that result, they're just 5-8 SU/ATS the past few seasons, when listed as road favorites of three points or less. During the same stretch, the Jazz have gone a profitable 4-1 SU/ATS as home underdogs of three points or less. Over that period, the Jazz have gone a very impressive 76-16 SU (including this season's 1-1 mark) at home, going a profitable 54-36-2 against the number. (San Antonio was 41-52-1 ATS on the road) The Spurs have had several days off since their blowout win on Halloween vs. Sacramento. That's not necessarily that big a positive though. They're a mediocre 7-6 SU/ATS the last 13 times that they played with three or more day's off between games. Additionally, over the same stretch, they're only 27-35-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory. While they've really struggled at San Antonio and have lost four straight overall in the series, the Jazz are still a solid 5-2 the last seven times that they hosted the Spurs. This is a big game for them and I expect them to respond with a big effort, bouncing back and moving to 4-0 ATS the last four times that they scored 85 points or less in their previous game. *7 TNT GOW
Wunderdog
San Jose at Detroit
5 units Detroit -140
3 units UNDER 5.5
The Detroit Red Wings have yet to lose a true home game this season. They are off a 2008-09 season where they lost just nine times at home, so they are definitely a good team that is very difficult to take down on home ice. The Sharks are streaking as they haven't in their past six games, so this one will get the Red Wings’ full attention. Both of these teams have been getting superb goaltending, and a low-scoring Detroit win would follow suit with what has been happening in Detroit between these clubs. The Red Wings have owned the Sharks here as they are now 18-4-1 in the last 23 meetings in Detroit. Also, the UNDER has prevailed to a 13-5-1 mark over the last 19 games. The Sharks are also 16-5-1 when playing in the second of consecutive nights. The Wings are perfect as a favorite of -110 to -150 recording seven straight wins and five straight UNDERS in the same moneyline range. I'll go with Detroit and the UNDER here.
Chicago at Phoenix
3 units Chicago -130
The Chicago Blackhawks are off to a good start and have played .500 on the road, but losing to Detroit isn't a surprise as they have lost nine games there since last season. The Blackhawks’ goalie combo of Niemi and Huet have come up big night after night, and have not allowed more than two goals in each of the past four games and on the road, they have surrendered just six in their four road contests. That will present a Coyotes team with a lot of problems as they have pushed just nine through the net in their last four games, at just 2.25 per contest. The Blackhawks are cashing lots of tickets as a favorite, collecting the money in 53 of their last 79 and are 7-1 in their last eight vs. the Pacific. Phoenix is struggling in the second of back-to-back nights at just 7-19, and Blackhawks are a perfect 6-0 in their last six vs. the Coyotes. I will back Chicago in this one.
New York Rangers at Edmonton
3 units New York Rangers -120
Edmonton was off to a surprisingly fast start, but has fallen hard and fast as they have recorded just one win in their last six games. The Rangers have not been playing well either, and have dropped their last four on the road. When you have two struggling teams, the better team is the way to go and that is the Rangers. The Rangers have been a money team all year rewarding bettors to the No. 1 team in the NHL with the highest plus. The Rangers have done well killing off penalties at 86.7% and rank No. 4 in the NHL while they are tied for the No. 7 most power play goals in the league with 14. That will be the difference maker here and I'll go with the Rangers who are also 6-2 playing an opponent that is scoring two or fewer goals in their last game.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
CHICAGO BULLS +11
For a number of different reasons I believe we’re getting excellent value on the Bulls:
Chicago is coming off an impressive 83-81-comeback win over Milwaukee on Tuesday; the Bulls trailed by 18 in the third quarter before rallying behind Derrick Rose and Luol Deng.
Rose scored 10 of his 16 points in the fourth quarter while Deng finished with 24 and a career-high 20 rebounds; both are playing with a lot of confidence right now and will not be intimidated by the Cavaliers.
On the other side of the court: After a slow start the Cavs are starting to win and seem to be playing better together with the new faces on the team.
Although Shaq has played better in the last couple games, let’s not be too hasty to read too much into it; Shaq has been inconsistent at best over the last few years and I expect him to follow this pattern until he finally decides to throw in the towel.
Bottom line: Chicago has been outscored by an average of 18.0 points in losing both road games this season and is 13-30 away from the United Center since the start of last season, and although the outright win is most likely out the question in this one, I do believe the BULLS will build off of their last victory and play a full four quarters and do just enough to sneak away with an ATS victory with the large spread they are being afforded and for Cleveland to fall to 1-3 ATS in home games this year! *8* BULLS.
Lenny Del Genio
EAST CAROLINA +13.5
Oddsmakers are banking on the public knowing all about Virginia Tech's history of Thursday success and figuring they'll bounce back after losing outright to North Carolina at home last week, but we're not falling for it. Not putting much stock into the fact that the Hokies were once ranked in the top five either as they could easily be 4-4 this season if not for a late TD at home vs. Nebraska. Remember that they only mustered 155 yards of total offense vs. Alabama in the opener and the last two weeks have seen their once vaunted defense allow nearly 500 yards rushing. The offense is having problems scoring TD's in the red zone and tonight's opponent, East Carolina, ranks 16th in the country in red zone defense. So those problems aren't likely to stop here. The Pirates have also rushed for over 600 yards in their last three games, so the troubles for the Hokies defense are likely to continue as well. Last year, ECU ran wild for 158 yards on them, is coming off a season high 275 yards vs. Memphis last week and is averaging 149.4 YPG overland this year. Remember if you can run the ball effectively, you can bleed the clock, which is very important if you're the underdog. The revenge angle for Va Tech's 27-22 loss last year is overplayed as well. Sure, ECU blocked a punt for the win, but they also outgained the Hokies 369-243. Considering that these teams appear to be pretty even and the fact that this game is in Greenville, this line is off significantly. Who cares if Virginia Tech hasn't lost three games in a row since 2000? The Pirates are a perfect 3-0 ATS the past three seasons as a double-digit dog of three touchdowns or less. East Carolina is our Thursday Night CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Rocketman
DETROIT RED WINGS -135
Detroit is 4-1 at home this year. Detroit is 21-5-1 SU at home vs San Jose since 1996. Sharks are 6-22 in their last 28 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sharks are 1-6 in their last 7 Thursday games. Red Wings are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Red Wings are 21-7-1 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Red Wings are 38-13 in their last 51 games as a home favorite. Red Wings are 48-17 in their last 65 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Red Wings are 38-14 in their last 52 home games. Red Wings are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Red Wings are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Red Wings are 95-41 in their last 136 games following a win. Red Wings are 216-100 in their last 316 games as a favorite. Red Wings are 80-38-5 in their last 123 Thursday games. Red Wings are 35-17 in their last 52 vs. Pacific. Favorite is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings. Home team is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings. Sharks are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings. Sharks are 4-18-1 in the last 23 meetings in Detroit. We'll play Detroit for 4 units tonight!
Teddy Covers
Maimi Ohio/Temple Over
Sammy Jankus Reverse Barometer
I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
3* UTAH (+1)
This ain’t your daddy’s Utah team. No, the once-feared Jazz led by Karl Malone and John Stockton have slowly given way to a ragtag gang of misfits that can barely tie their own shoelaces. Usually solid gold in the ATS department when playing at EnergySolutions Arena, the Jazz got flattened Monday night by Houston as 8-point chalk, losing outright 113-96. Utah then had Dallas on the ropes the next evening in Big D – only to execute a monumental 4th quarter collapse where they were outscored 44-18, blowing the game and the cover. No way I want this gutless bunch against a solid Spurs team that’s getting contributions from a half-dozen players besides Tim Duncan! I think San Antonio wins this by double digits – so your play (and I feel bad doing this to you) is on UTAH.
NorthCoast
Marquee - E Car
Evan Altemus
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -2
Utah is now 1-3 on the season, with all of their losses coming against good teams in the Western Conference, such as Dallas, Houston, and Denver. San Antonio has had four days off to prepare for this game, so I am sure they will be fully prepared. The Spurs have played very well against the Jazz over the last few years, and they won and covered in all three games against them last year. I feel that the difference in this game will be defense. The Jazz defense has given up 113 points to Houston, 114 points to Denver, and they allowed Dallas to score 44 points enroute to a comeback win a few days ago. San Antonio plays much overall team defense, and I look for a focused effort from them in this game. I also expect Utah to come out sluggish after the demoralizing loss in their last game. Look for the Spurs to get the win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION SPURS.
INDIAN COWBOY
4 Unit Play. Take Over 201.5 between the San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz
The last four times these two teams have met, the contest has gone over. Obviously, this stretches back to last year when the Spurs did not have Richard Jefferson as an added scoring option. Now, with him, this team is even more potent on offense. Heck, Jefferson comes off his first big game as a Spur with 22 points in the big win over the Kings at home as the Spurs covered the -16.5 spread. The Spurs did not play well against the Bulls in their last road contest scoring just 85 points. I don't forsee that today. I see the Spurs playing very well as they are getting more used to Jefferson in the lineup and have pop with Manu leading the charge from the bench. Utah comes off an ugly game against Dallas where they fell short 85-96 and they come off a home loss to Houston as well. The Houston game was totaled at roughly the same and the game finished at 209 points. I look for the Jazz to play much better offensively at home coming off back to back losses, the Spurs to continue to play well offensively with Jefferson in the lineup as this game likely goes over the posted total. There was a quick uptick in the total when it was released and with the public on the under by a 2:1 margin, indeed I think the over is the play as the Over is 6-1 when the Spurs are favored lately and the Over is 10-3 when the Jazz play a team with a straight up winning record.
Royal Sports
9* E Michigan
Ron Raymond
EDMONTON OILERS +100
Keys to selection: I’m not sure what is wrong with the Rangers, but they’ve stop scoring goals and you can’t average 1.33 goals per game in your last 3 outings and expect positive results. Plus, to make matters worst, here’s an NHL BETTING system that works against the Rangers tonight. Any road Eastern Conference team playing against a Northwest Division opponent this season; 0-8 SU on the year!
ATS ANGLE When NY RANGERS played as a road team - During Last 2 Years - Lost Last Game by 3 Goals or More; the Rangers are 3-8 SU in this situation the L2Y.
ATS Ratings Prediction: Edmonton by 0.08 goals.
Ron’s Prediction: Edmonton 4 NY Rangers 2
Tony George
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -1
DEFENSE is the big key. If you are a team that allows 105 ppg on defense and the only win you have is the Clippers under your belt, while losing 3 games to 3 good teams, the Spurs will eat you up. Good matchup up top here with Williams and Parker, but the frontcourt scoring and REBOUNDING will favor the Spurs here big time, who are well rested and focused here after not playing since Saturday. Jazz are 6-15 ATS their last 21 lined regular season games. Depth also favors the Spurs here.
Play 1 Unit on San Antonio.
Mean Green Profit
Eastern Michigan
Rangers
Kings