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Colorado/WV Over
Jimmy Boyd
3* Thursday Night SMASH on West Virginia -16.5
This is the same Colorado team which allowed 54 points at Toledo a few weeks back. If Toledo can put up 54, so can the Mountaineers. West Virginia has been scoring big points against much better competition, 35 on E. Carolina and 30 on Auburn. They likely score even more if it wasn't for a bundle of turnovers. You can be rest assured that WVU will do a much better job of taking care of the football tonight. Bottom line, this is a revenge game. WVU went down by 3 in OT at Boulder last season and now the Mountaineers return the favor in a big way. Colorado's defense is awful and the offense has been no better. The Buffaloes are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog. WVU is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 at home facing non-conference foes. WVU by 3 touchdowns. Lay the points.
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5* Colorado +17 **POD**
3* UAB +10.5
3* UAB UNDER 59
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15 units Colorado +17
10 units UAB +10.5
10 units Oakland A's -119
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
Colorado Buffalos @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Selection: 3* West Virginia Mountaineers
The Colorado Buffalos make a trip to Morgantown for a Thursday night game versus the host West Virginia Mountaineers. Both teams were idle last week and they are coming off different outcomes in their last game with the Buffalos finally getting a win albeit against lowly Wyoming while the Mountaineers suffered a tough road loss at Auburn a game in which they led 14 to 0 early before turnovers finally cost them the game.
The Buffalos head coach Dan Hawkins is riding on a hot seat even with the win over Wyoming. In the win over the Cowboys they rushed for 151 yards and only managed 175 through the air. They will have to improve dramatically on that performance if they hope to get a win versus the Mountaineers.
Prior to facing Wyoming the Buffalos defense allowed 305 yards rushing and 319 yards passing to Toledo in a 54 to 38 road loss. Colorado has shown little improvement from that performance and they can expect a similar outcome on Thursday night.
This situation favors the host for several reasons one being we know that teams coming off rest playing game four of the season and installed as a favorite have won the money at a rate of 94-68 ATS. If they are facing a team coming off a SU win in their last game the record improves to 53-24 ATS and if they are facing a non-conference opponent the record is a blistering 22-3 ATS.
Another key element is non-conference underdogs playing away from home with rest and coming off a non-conference favorite win, they have been over-valued and over-confident as evidenced by this CFB System that says From Game 3 on, play AGAINST a non-conference road/neutral site underdog of 3½-18½ points with 11+ days rest off a non-conference favorite SU win vs. an opponent with less than 13 days rest. These road teams are 0-18 ATS and fail to cover the number by 13.2 points per game.
West Virginia’s problem in their last game can easily be corrected by simply hanging onto the football; if they had done that against Auburn they would have come out of there with a win. They rushed for 207 yards and passed for another 302 in the loss while their “D” held Auburn’s high powered attack to only 100 yards rushing and 300 through the air. Six turnovers spell defeat in most cases no matter whom you are playing and they were a huge factor in the loss to Auburn. We expect the Mountaineers to have a much better outing against the Buffalos.
The West Virginia offense is solid even without Pat White scoring ninety-eight points in three games and ranked 12th in the nation in total offense. WV RB Devine is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and will face a Buffs “D” that has trouble stopping the run. When the Buffs are on offense they have struggled rushing the ball ranking 109th in the nation in that department so taking time off the clock with a ball control scheme seems very unlikely for Colorado in this game.
Colorado is 2-10 ATS on the road off a SU win against a non-conference opponent, 5-13 ATS when facing a non-conference opponent and 4-15 ATS as a road underdog. West Virginia is 12-2 both straight up and against the spread during the regular season when both teams have rest and their winning percentage is below .750. The Mountaineers are 20-11 ATS off a bye and 7-1 ATS as a non-conference host.
West Virginia is playing with legitimate revenge here for a 17 to 14 overtime loss last season in Boulder. They have Syracuse on deck while Colorado has a big meeting with Big 12 rival Texas next on their schedule. We will back the host here as West Virginia rolls past the Buffs on Thursday night in Morgantown.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 3* West Virginia 41 Colorado 17
Ben Burns
I'm playing on CALGARY. I often pass on opening night of the NHL season but I like the Flames in this sport. These teams faced each other on opening night of the NHL season last year (not incl. the games that were played overseas) with the Canucks earning a 6-0 victory. The Canucks were playing with a lot of emotion in that game as one of their teammates had passed away tragically over the summer and they were playing in his memory. Playing on home ice, they came out with a lot more passion than the Flames. The Canucks went on to win the second game of that home and home series, 5-4 at Calgary. The Flames know how important those four points would have been to them down the stretch and they're determined to get off to a better start this season. Now, they've got a new coach and some new talent, namely defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. Add him to the likes of Dion Phaneuf, Cory Sarich and Robyn Regehr and the Flames have an excellent defense corps. Throw in the addition of Brent Sutter behind the bench and this should be an improved defensive team.
I'm taking the points with UAB. I respect the Golden Eagles. They're a solid and very experienced team. However, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying double-digits. Last week, the Golden Eagles traveled to Kansas and went toe-to-toe with a Top 25 opponent. They played hard and covered the spread but lost the game outright. That snapped a lengthy winning streak, which dated back to last season. For a team which had dreams of finishing with an undefeated season, that can be difficult to bounce back from - even if those dreams were a bit unrealistic. Here, they'll be playing the middle of three road games and they've got another BCS school, former CUSA rival Louisville (now in the Big East) on deck. In other words, they could easily overlook lowly UAB. It should also be noted that the Golden Eagles are expected to be without both RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown, both of whom are very important to this offense.
On the other hand, the Blazers should be fully focused on the task at hand. For starters, this is a rare home game. They've got a brutal schedule, as they've just played two on the road and their next three games, following a bye, will also be on the road. That means that they should know they need to make the most of their opportunity here at home. Additionally, the Blazers have had this game circled as the Golden Eagles completely destroyed them last season, winning by a score of 70-14.
The Blazers haven't forgotten that game as they returned 18 starters from last year's team, including dual-threat quarterback Joe Webb. In addition to throwing for 612 yards and five touchdowns, Webb also has 432 yards and four TD's on the ground. While I won't go as far as calling them as talented as their guests, I do feel that this is the best UAB team which Neil Callaway has had.
The Blazers have split their two games here. The victory came in blowout fashion (44-24 over Rice) and the loss was by only two points, 35-33 vs. SMU. Looking back further and we find that the Blazers are 3-3 SU their last six home games but that all three losses came by four points or less. I expect this one to also come down to the wire as the revenge-minded Blazers, who are 4-0 ATS their last four against teams with a winning record, prove to be the 'hungrier' team and come away with at least the cover. *8 Roast
Mike Neri
4* West Virginia
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15* Late Night MLB Bailout
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Oakland vs. Seattle
Play: Oakland -120
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Money ball has never made A’s owner Billy Beane a World Series Champion, but it has made Oakland a team to consistently wager on and his young rotation has been very solid again this season. The team is 6-4, +$495 over the last 10 days (despite a 3-game losing streak) and has been fantastic in road night games all season long, up $1490. Seattle, on the other hand, has been lousy in home night games vs. lefties this season, down $555. The A’s have been a great bounce back team as well this year, posting a 10-4 record when coming off a loss by six or more runs. The two starting pitchers in this game could not be headed in more opposite directions w/ Oakland’s Anderson 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA his last three starts while Seattle’s Fister is 0-3 with a 8.80 ERA during the same span. Even worse, the Mariners have lost those three games by a combined score of 22-3. While it is true that the Athletics have struggled at Safeco Field this year (1-7), it is also true that Anderson has allowed just five earned runs in his last 18 IP vs. Seattle. Oakland is our 15* Late Night MLB Bailout.
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West Virginia
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Colorado vs. West Virginia
Play: Over 54
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For a number of different reasons I believe this game is going to be a "shootout" and believe the sharp money is on the "over": Both teams come into this game well-rested off of their bye-weeks. Colorado blanked Wyoming 24-0 its last time out for its first win of the season and West Virginia lost to Auburn 41-30. Colorado RB Rodney Stewart will try to duplicate his 166 yard performance from a year ago when the Buffaloes upset the Mountaineers 17-14. After missing most of the first two games of the season, Stewart rebounded in a big way his last time out, rushing for 127 yards in the Buffaloes 24-0 spanking of Wyoming. Stewart recently commented on the his teams demeanor after securing their first win of the season; “It turned things around a lot and let us know we had confidence as a team,” Stewart said. “We just want to build on that for our next game.” Despite the shut-out they posted last week, Colorado has been atrocious on the defensive side thus far; Colorado has been allowing 38.5 points and 500 yards on average, and I'm not reading too much into the results from their last game as teams ran very effectively against the Buffaloes in their first two games. On the other side of the field: In their 41-30 loss to Auburn, the Mountaineers turned the ball over six times, and have turned it over ten times in their last two games. QB Jarrett Brown has thrown for more than 300 yards in those games, but was intercepted four times and lost a fumble. Suffice to say, WVU remains explosive on offense with Brown’s passing to Jock Sanders, who comes off a school-record 12 catches against Auburn, and RB Noel Devine, who rushed for three TDs at Auburn, including a 71-yard burst. However, the WVU defense gave up 300 yards passing at Auburn, and will once again be in tough this Thursday against a pass-happy Colorado team. Bottom line: Both teams come into this matchup looking for a win and meet on Thursday night with their offenses in top form. West Virginia is prone to the turnover and I look for the total to go over the number in all three of West Virginia's non-conference games this season; when coupled with the rest of the above facts, I have to recommend a play on the Over!
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Colorado vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -17
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The number does not matter, Colorado’s defense will get shredded in this one. This is the same Colorado defense that let Colorado St score 37 and Toledo score 54 on them, both on national TV. Cody Hawkins at QB is deplorable and the Mountaineers at home love to roll, and I watched them run up and down the field on Auburn in a game they had and lost with a huge turnover. Colorado’s offense will have issues against an unconventional style defense. REVENGE is on WV here as they lost in OT last year at Boulder on ESPN. West Virginia has had 10 turnovers in 2 games, I assure you they will not have near as many here, if they did, doubt Colorado could do anything with them. Buffs 3-8 ATS last 11 and 2-6 ATS against a team with a winning record.
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Colorado vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -17.5
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When Colorado team played as a Road team - Last 4 years - Coming off a Home win; the Buffaloes are 1-10-0 ATS in this role the L4Y.
Dr. Bob
4* West Virginia -17 or less