Marc Lawrence
3 Units California
When we last saw the Berkeley bunch they held one-point first-half lead last Thursday at Eugene as 24-points dogs. However, Oregon had Cal ducking for non-cover in a 29-0 second-half blitz. Despite the disappointing performance, we'll give Jeff Tedford's Jekyll and Hyde Bears another chance. While Lane Kiffin has USC off to a 4-1 start, his defense has been lit up for 84 points by the state of Arizona over the past two games. Add Kiffin's inability to duplicate big offensive numbers (1-7 ATS after scoring 48 or more points), along with Tedford's 18-6 SU and 16-5 ATS mark at home in games in which his team's win percentage is .600 or less on the season, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS when hosting a foe that scored 48 or more points in its last game in this role, and it makes it easy to understand why we're not about to kick these wounded Bears. We recommend a 3-unit play on California.
Bryan Leonard
San Diego State +7
The Aztecs have held their own defensively this season holding every opponent to 28 points or less and that includes the talented offenses of Washington State and Michigan. After facing two primarily running teams the last two games with the Wolverines and the Horned Frogs the Aztecs should be well prepared for the Air Force option, especially considering they had a bye just two weeks ago. Rocky Long has been a tremendous conference road dog dating back to 2000 while at New Mexico, his teams have cashed 17 of 27 in that role. Even the last two years under Brady Hoke the Aztecs were at their best catching points on the conference road with a 4-1 spread mark. After facing the defenses of Michigan and TCU, San Diego State should have a breakout offensive game against an Air Force squad that has been a sieve defensively. Keep in mind this team put up 49, 23 and 42 points the first three games of the season.
Air Force has played three FBS squads this season allowing 35, 34 and 59 points. That's not the type of numbers you want from a touchdown favorite. This is also a sandwich game for the Falcons who are off Navy and Notre Dame with Boise State on deck. While it's doubtful the Cadets will look past a nationally televised conference affair, it's obvious that this game surrounds more important contests. Air Force is on a 1-6 spread run as a home favorite including non-covering wins over FCS entrants South Dakota and Tennessee State. After winning 9,8,8 and 9 games the previous four seasons it's obvious that the Falcons are a bit down this year. They own just one FBS victory and that game was settled in overtime against Navy. Overall 6 of the last 10 meetings in this series have been outright upsets, not sure we won't see another here.
Ben Burns
10* Cal
10* USC / Cal Under
9* Ottawa
Sean Murphy
Canadiens
Kings
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play Texas (+145) over Detroit (Top MLB Play)
CJ Wilson has won 15 of the last 21 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has also won 3 of the last 4 road games as an underdog of +125 to +150. CJ Wilson has won 10 of the last 15 games vs. AL Central Division Opponents and he has an ERA of 2.23 in road games this season.
Play Milwaukee (+125) over St. Louis (Bonus MLB Play)
NHL Hockey Thursday
Play LA Kings (-115) over New Jersey (Top NHL Play)
Info Plays
7* Brewers / Cardinals Over 8½
JOHN CHANG
10 DIMES USC -3
Zach Maynard is one of my least favorite signal callers. I wouldn't trust this kid to throw a temper tantrum, much less a football. While he's got a great receiver in Keenan Allen, the Cal offense simply doesn't have the capability to keep up with the more talented USC passing attack. Matt Barkley is a solid game manager with better numbers and more experience against tough opponents. Plus, he's got an outstanding receiving corps featuring quite possibly the best receiver in the land. If Cal's starting corner Marc Anthony stays out with a shoulder injury, which is the prediction now, then look for Barkley to attack Anthony's likely replacement, freshman Stefan McClure. The Golden Bears have dropped seven in a row to USC, and I see too much in favor of the Trojans to go against them here. Take the road chalk.
5 DIMES ST LOUIS CARDINALS -135
BIG AL
4* Detroit Tigers
Like the Brewers over in the National League, this is pretty much a must-win game for Detroit, and today will be the chance for Tigers ace Justin Verlander to show that he really is not only one of the best pitchers in the game, but also one of the most valuable players in all of baseball. Verlander hasn't exactly shown that so far in the 2011 post-season, as he had a 5.00 ERA in two ALDS starts against the Yankees, and in his only start in this series, the veteran righthander only lasted four innings while taking the loss in game one in Texas. But now Verlander is back home and once again his opposing starter will be southpaw CJ Wilson of the Rangers and like Verlander, Wilson hasn't pitched that well in this post-season although the Rangers managed to win Wilson's last start in the opening game of this series. But a problem for the Rangers may be the fact that Wilson has never really liked pitching in Detroit's ballpark as he is just 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in five appearances (one start) there in his career. Verlander pitched well this season no matter where he took the mound, but he did have a slightly better ERA at home than on the road and he obviously loves pitching in front of his hometown fans, as Detroit is 38-11 his last 49 home starts! The Tigers are also 17-2 behind their ace when he's priced -125 to -175. Take Detroit.
3* Brewers / Cardinals Over
It's time for the #4 starters on these respective teams to take the stage in the NLCS in a game which is much more important for the Brewers than it seems to be for the Cardinals, as the Red Birds took a 2-1 series lead on Wednesday night behind their ace Chris Carpenter. Now it's righthander Kyle Lohse's turn and unfortunately for St. Louis, Lohse's post-season numbers do not inspire confidence as the 32-year-old veteran is 0-3 with a 4.82 ERA in seven post-season appearances (two starts) heading into this critical game. Those numbers include a disastrous outing in game one against the Phillies in which Lohse gave up six runs (five earned) in 5 1/3 innings as the Phils bombed the Cards 11-6 at Citizens Bank Park. The only good news for him tonight is that as bad as Lohse has been in the playoffs, he's no worse than his opposing starter, lefthander Randy Wolf. In three posts-season starts, the veteran southpaw is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA, including a very poor outing against the D-Backs in game 4 in which Wolf surrendered seven runs on eight hits in just three innings. Oddly, the score of that game was almost exactly the same as that in Lohse's game one against the Phils as the Brewers were man-handled by the D-Backs 10-6. The over is 9-2-2 in Milwaukee's last 13 games, and 8-2-1 in St. Louis' last 11 games. Take the 'over.'
3* California
When we last saw Jeff Tedford's men, they were getting blasted in the 2nd half by Oregon, and lost 43-15 to the Ducks as 24-point underdogs. That loss dropped Cal to 3-2 on the season, and now they'll try to snap a 7-game losing streak to the Trojans. According to my database, Cal should do just that tonight, as winning teams rebound off 21-point losses to conference foes, when they're matched up against another conference opponent, if they're playing with revenge against that opponent. Since 1980, our 'play-on' teams (here, Cal) are a super 146-99 ATS! And, if our 'play-against' team (here, USC) comes into the game off a SU win, then our 146-99 system improves to 96-55 (64%). This will be USC's 2nd road game of the season, and the Trojans were routed by Arizona State, 43-22, in their first road game. And that continued a USC trend, as the Trojans are a miserable 6-11 ATS their last 17 road games. Even worse, USC is 0-7 ATS its last seven after scoring more than 35 points. With the Trojans off a 48-41 win over Arizona, they fall into this negative 0-7 ATS team situation. Take the points with California.
3* Lightning / Islanders Under
The Lightning made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, but so far the team from Central Florida has gotten off to a slow start in their follow-up to their surprising run of 2010-2011. Tampa only managed to score one goal in against Boston last Saturday, and then they put five in the net against the Washington Capitals in their third game, but they were facing a very nervous Tomas Vokoun in net for his Caps debut in front of the crowd in DC so don't be surprised if the Tampa offense regresses back to the form it had in its previous contest. The Islanders have also had scoring issues so far, tallying a total of just two goals in their first two games, but this is not surprising for a team that only won 30 games last season. But the Isles may be tough to score on as well this season, as they have the services of defenseman Mark Streit back from injury (Streit missed all of the 2010-2011 season) and when healthy, Streit is one of the top defenders in the game. The Islanders also feature a very good goalie tandem of Rick DiPietro, Al Montoya, and Evgeni Nabokov, which could keep this team in a lot more games this season. This series has seen 19 of 30 go 'under' the total. Take the 'under.'
Lance Blankenship
San Diego St. at Air Force
Pick: Over 58.5
Both Air Force and San Diego State score a lot of points and give up a lot of points which is what leads us to believe the game will go over. Both of these defenses are giving up over 400 yards per game and Air Force is allowing teams to score over 30 points per game. Enough said.
Maddux Sports
10 Units Cal
10 Units Tigers
Tom Freese
15* Tigers
15* Cardinals
10* Senators
10* Predators
Iceman
4* Blues -115
John Ryan
15* Texas Rangers
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. So much of this line is based on Verlander throwing extremely well against very strong Texas lineup. Texas has a commanding, almost insurmountable lead in this series and Detroit’s lineup is looking more like a MASH unit. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-18 making 32.8 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on road teams having won 12 or more of their last 15 games in October games. This system is 3-1 this season. Verlander is arguably the best starter in the Al and will in the Cy Young. However, the Texas lineup that has not holes has done well against strong control type starters like Verlander. They are a solid 37-13 (+24.4 Units) against the money line facing an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season. Moreover, Texas is 28-13 (+10.7 Units) against the money line on a good fielding streak posting 10 straight games with one or less errors this season; 22-9 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season; 35-18 (+11.5 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. Take Texas to advance to the World Series.
Frank Patron
USC
THE CONSENSUS PICK
Southern California/California Under 58.5