Maddux Sports
Kansas State -2.5
South Florida +10.5
Dr Bob
2* Kansas State (-2 ½) 29 KANSAS 19
I pegged Kansas as overrated heading into their game at Baylor 2 weeks ago and the Jayhawks lost that game 7-55 for a Best Bet win. I’ll go against the Jayhawks again tonight, as they are worse than Kansas State on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Kansas may still be getting too much credit for beating Georgia Tech in week 2, but the Jayhawks were out-gained in that contest 322 yards at 4.7 yards per play to 408 yards at 6.2 yppl and were not close to being the better team. Kansas’ only other victory was a 42-16 win over a horrendous New Mexico State team and out-gaining the Aggies at home 7.1 yppl to 5.0 yppl is actually a bad game too given that New Mexico State would be out-gained 7.1 yppl to 4.0 yppl on the road by an average Division 1A team. Aside from their phony win over Georgia Tech the only other two decent teams that Kansas faced resulted in that 7-55 loss at Baylor and a 16-31 loss at Southern Miss in which the Jayhawks were out-gained 3.9 yppl to 6.1 yppl by a worse than average Eagles squad. Oh, and Kansas also lost 3-6 at home to North Dakota State – although that was a game that they actually should have won. For the season, Kansas is horrible offensively, averaging just 4.9 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. Kansas State was pretty solid defensively until giving up 587 yards at 11.3 yppl last week to Nebraska, but the Wildcats’ defensive numbers (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) are still 0.7 yppl better than the Jayhawks’ offense.
Kansas State’s offense is 0.4 yppl better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and the Wildcats should move the ball well against a Kansas defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average in allowing 6.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. In addition to being significantly better on both sides of the ball, the Wildcats are also better on special teams and my math model gives Kansas State a very profitable 57.6% chance of covering at -2 ½ point. I’ll take Kansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Bobby Maxwell
400-Unit College Primetime Pushover - Kansas State
Other than playing at home, there is absolutely no redeeming quality to the Kansas Jayhawks this season. They don’t play good offense, they can’t stop anybody and they haven’t even been good in front of the home fans. This play is all about Kansas State tonight marching in to Lawrence and delivering a beating to their in-state rivals.
Kansas has lost 12 straight Big 12 games and they were demolished by Baylor on Oct. 2, losing 55-7 as nine-point underdogs. This team opened the season at home with an embarrassing loss to North Dakota State at home, 6-3 as 27 ½-point favorites. They have been outgained in three of their last four contests, including against Baylor when they were outgained by 408 yards.
Kansas State opened the season with four straight wins (all at home) before losing last week to Nebraska 48-13 as 11-point underdogs. The Wildcats own some solid wins, already beating the likes of Central Florida, Iowa State and UCLA.
The Wildcats have a breakaway threat at RB in Daniel Thomas who was second in the nation after two games, only to be held to 80 or less in his last two contests. He is now averaging 138.2 yards per game and while talk of a Heisman run has stopped, he can thrust himself back into the discussion with a dominating game here tonight.
Last year, Kansas State beat their in-state rivals 17-10 at home, cashing in as 1 ½-point ‘dogs. That snapped a three-year losing streak in this rivalry. The Wildcats have cashed in 11 of the last 15 meetings against the Jayhawks and the favorite is 12-3 in the last 15 years of battles.
Kansas has been ugly at the betting window, on ATS slides of 3-11 overall, 2-7 against winning teams, 3-9 as an underdog, 1-8 in Big 12 games and 0-6 in October contests. Conversely, Kansas State is on ATS streaks of 27-12 against losing teams, 6-2 in Big 12 battles, 4-0 after a straight-up loss and 4-1 after a non-cover.
There’s not much good on the Kansas side of the ball. I’ll lay the points on the road in a rivalry game, something I normally would never do, and load up on the Wildcats as Kansas State wins this one going away.
BIG AL
Kansas State -3
Wayne Root
Millionaire - South Florida Bulls
Bonus Game - Kansas Jayhawks
Scott Spreitzer
Kansas State
Jennifer Barry
30* S. Fla +10
Anthony Redd
60 Dime WVU / S Florida Over
Northcoast
Marquee - South Florida
Christian Alexander
Kansas State at Kansas
Pick: Kansas State -3
Tricky game to call but I just find Kansas impossible to back. The only thing the Jayhawks have done all season is beat Georgia Tech but outside of that, it has been really ugly. How ugly? They lost to North Dakota State at home by a score of 6-3 to start the year.
Not thrilled going with a Kansas State team which will be making its first trip away from home and who has a pretty one-sided offense but the fact remains this team has quality wins over UCLA, Iowa State, and Central Florida. Ok, so maybe "quality" is pushing it but compared to North Dakota State, those are QUALITY teams.
Look for Kansas State to hang around and steal this one in the 4th quarter.
Wunderdog
5 Units Lightning/Flyers Under 5.5
The Flyers are very tough defensively, particularly at home. In their last 13 home games last season, the Flyers allowed just 2 goals per game on average. Through three games this season, no one has penetrated the net more than twice against them. Dating back to last season, they are 29-18 UNDER at home when coming off an OVER as they are here. I like the UNDER in this one.
Jeff Benton
15 DIME South Florida
What a ridiculous overreaction by oddsmakers and bettors alike. Just because South Florida is coming off a disappointing home loss to Syracuse and West Virginia is coming off a 39-point home blowout over UNLV – easily one of the five worst teams in Division I-A – the line in this game has crossed double digits. Crazy for a number of reasons.
First, West Virginia hasn’t defeated a quality opponent all year. The Mountaineers’ four wins have come over Coastal Carolina, Marshall (in overtime!), Maryland and UNLV. The one time West Virginia stepped up in class, it lost 20-14 at LSU. No, I’m not saying South Florida is the equal to LSU – but the Bulls BY FAR are the second-best opponent West Virginia has seen this year. And it’s not like USF has to win this game anyway – the Bulls just have to not get blown out. And they won’t because of their defiense.
South Florida is allowing just 16 points and 301 yards per contest, and if you eliminate two bad quarters at Florida in Week 2 – the Bulls surrendered 31 second-half points in a 38-14 loss in Gainesville – South Florida has given up just 49 points in 4½ games, or 10.9 ppg. This defense knows how to contain West Virginia, too. In the lat four meetings, USF has held the Mountaineers to 19, 13, 13 and 19 points. In those four games, South Florida went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS … all as an underdog!
The Mountaineers have failed to cover in nine of their last 11 home games when laying 3 ½ to 10 points, while the Bulls are on a 6-2 ATS run when getting that kind of take back. Furthermore, West Virginia is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 as a favorite of any price and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a blowout win over more than 20 points.
I’m telling you guys, this line is inflated by more than a field goal, and given the fact that the last four meetings were decided by an average of 7.5 ppg – and again, South Florida won three of those outright! – I’m taking the value with the road ‘dog!
Rich Green
Kansas Jayhawks + 3
Paul Leiner
50* Kansas State -3
Rocky Sheridan
7* Dallas Stars +115
5* South Florida Bulls +10.5