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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, October 15,2009

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Alex Smart

Cincinnati

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 1:04 pm
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Eric Degarde

3* LA Dodgers -137

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 1:23 pm
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Chris Jordan

100♦ L.A. DODGERS

50♦ CINCINNATI

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 1:31 pm
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Black Widow

6* Widow Wiseguy Big East "STEAL" OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -2.5

The Bearcats are an absolute steal Thursday as just a small favorite to beat South Florida. The Bulls don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Cincinnati in this one, though both defenses are pretty evenly matched. Cincinnati is scoring 42.0 points/game and it's not like they have done it against easy opponents. The Bearcats are 5-0 with wins over the likes of Rutgers, Oregon State and Fresno State. South Florida's only good win this season came at Florida State, but the Seminoles are now 2-4 so how good of a win was that really? Cincinnati has won 3 straight over the Bulls and the Bearcats are 5-1 ATS against South Florida in their last 6 meetings. Cincinnati's defense is giving up just 13.8 points/game this season, including just 2.7 yards/carry on the ground. That is important because South Florida runs the ball 40 times/game, and that accounts for roughly 65% of their offense. No matter what anyone says, backup QB P.J. Daniels is not nearly the same caliber of player as starting QB Matt Grothe, who is out for the season with an injury. Daniels is completing just 57% of his passes while Grothe completed 73% of his attempts, and both have seen equal playing time to this point. Tony Pike is in the Heisman race by completing 67% of his passes for 1,492 yards and 13 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. The Bulls have yet to see an offense anywhere near the caliber of this Cincinnati offensive unit. The Bearcats are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cincy is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The Bearcats remain unbeaten as they prove they are the superior team Thursday. Take Cincinnati and lay the points.

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 1:34 pm
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NorthCoast

Marquee GOM

S FLORIDA

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 1:35 pm
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Anthony Redd

10 Dime Phillies - Dodgers Under

5 Dime Cincinnati

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 1:53 pm
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Scott Spreitzer

NHL THURS NIGHT **POWER PLAY!** (4-0, 100% L12 Days)

I'm laying the price with the Canadiens

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:15 pm
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BEN BURNS

Big East GOY - South Florida

Roast - LA Dodgers

#1 GOW Montreal

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:15 pm
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Ron Raymond

Colorado vs. Montreal

Montreal is an undersized hockey club and they are very slow on defense. The Habs are coming off 4 days rest and going back to 1996, when a Montreal team is playing at home after coming off 4 days rest, they are 3-7 SU in this position. The Avs are playing good hockey right now, they seem pretty solid with Anderson in nets and Montreal could be sluggish tonight from lack of playing the last week and when you play in the NHL and you haven’t played in more than 4 days, you’re timing will be off.

Prediction: Colorado 4 Montreal 2

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:20 pm
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Bob Balfe

Cincinnati vs. South Florida

USF lost their 4 year starting QB for the season, but are 2-0 without him. The real key in this game is how bad the Bearcat Defense is. U. of Cincinnati has converted Wide Receivers to play cornerback on a unit that only returns one starter from last year's defense. South Florida should have no problem moving the ball tonight. Cincinnati has a great offense and Tony Pike in my opinion is the best QB in the nation. The South Florida Defense is no pushover however they have not been tested by an offense this good this season. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings and there is no doubt they will get their points. A lot of USF players have yet to win against Cincy and they will be extra motivated tonight to knock the Bearcats from the rankings and spoil any BCS dreams. Both teams are going to move the ball and score a lot. Take the Over.

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:21 pm
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Mike Lineback

Philadelphia vs. Dodgers

Hamels has pitched well vs. LA in his career (last start vs. in June) but has not been on his game recently. The lefty, has lost 4 straight starts (21.2 innings, 17 runs allowed), including his home playoff start vs. Colorado one week ago. Meanwhile, Dodgers start Kershaw has won his L2 starts, vs. St. Louis, and a Divisional clinching performance vs. Colorado on 10/3 (12.2 innings, 14 strikeouts L2; 10 vs. Colorado). Key for Kershaw, is his walks are way down last 6 starts. Both starts can be dominating but will give slight edge to Kershaw, giving recent results. Home field is huge tonight. Plus, have to give edge to Dodgers bullpen, where this game may be won tonight. Take the Dodgers.

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:21 pm
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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Cincinnati vs. South Florida

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the "over": Tony Pike looks to lead the eighth-ranked Bearcats to a fourth straight win over the 21st-ranked Bulls in a matchup of undefeated Big East teams Thursday night. Cincinnati had little trouble moving the ball against South Florida in last years matchup as Pike completed 20 of 28 passes for 281 yards and two TDs. Pike and the Bearcats are rolling offensively this season as he's thrown for 1,493 yards and 13 TDs while getting picked off just three times. He’s six TDs shy of his total from 12 games last year! Cincinnati ranks third in the country in scoring with 43.2 points per game; however one area of concern for the Bearcats is on the defensive side of the ball; Bearcats opponents have held the ball for a nation-leading 36:08 per contest! Cincinnati has already seen the total go "over" the posted number in its only conference game this season and I expect that trend to continue in this one; it should also be pointed out that the total has gone over the posted number in five of the Bearcats last seven on the road.

On the other side of the field: South Florida ranks third in the nation in forced turnovers (16), fifth in scoring defense (9.4) and I expect the Bulls to once again make the most of their opportunities on Thursday night. Offensively, South Florida is led by freshman QB B.J. Daniels, who has started two games since senior Matt Grothe suffered a season-ending knee injury. Daniels has made an appearance in all five of South Florida’s games, passing for six TDs while getting picked off twice. In all, the Bulls are third in the league in total offense in averaging 413.6 yards a game and are second in rushing (190.8). South Florida has also seen the total go over the posted number in its only conference game this season; expect that trend to continue as well. It's also important to point out that over the last two seasons the Bulls have seen the total go over the number in six of their last ten home games.

Bottom line: South Florida has lost three in a row in the series with the Bearcats after winning two of the first three meetings. Cincinnati is the highest-scoring team in the conference; the Bulls are the stingiest on defense. However, the Bearcats have given up only three sacks, a league low, in five games and I expect Pike to continue to receive awesome protection and to get the Bulls defenders on their heels. Over the last three seasons the Bearcats have seen the total go over the posted number in 10 of 15 road games and this powerful O/U trend continues tonight; when taking into account all of the above facts/stats, the sharp money is on the OVER! 9*

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:23 pm
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Tony George

Philadelphia vs. Dodgers

Going against the grain here, but I have faith in Cole Hamels, a solid lefty who blazed through the post season last year with less than a 2 ERA. He has struggled somewhat this year but the Dodgers in their last 10 games have only hit southpaws at .197 as a team, and overall Philly as a team has a better batting average as of late, and Philly hits lefties far better and Kershaw is hittable with this rotation. Hamels numbers recently have not been good, call it a hunch, but I think he shows up big tonight, I am counting on it. Both bullpens are about even here so I will take a road dog here who are defending world champs to pull out a win.

Play 1 Unit on Philly

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:24 pm
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Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati vs. South Florida

When South Florida hosts Cincinnati in a battle of unbeatens at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa they will do so knowing that Game Six matchups of 5-0 teams finds the underdog 11-5 ATS since 1980, including 7-1 ATS if the favored opponent is of a win of 24 or more points. In addition, our powerful database reminds us that any undefeated college home dog from Game Six out is 18-7-2 ATS when facing a greater than .850 opponent, including 5-0 ATS when playing with rest. With USF 9-1 SU at home with a win percentage of more than .750 this decade and the Bearcats just 2-17 SU away versus undefeated opposition this decade, look for the Bulls to win the battle of unbeatens here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on South Florida.

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:24 pm
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Rocketman

San Jose vs. Washington

Washington is 27-16 the past 3 years at home when the total is 6 or more. Washington has lost 4 games in a row by 1 goal after winning their first two games of the season. I expect them to get back on track tonight as the public will be all over San Jose as an underdog tonight. Sharks are 6-20 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sharks are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games. Sharks are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Sharks are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games. Capitals are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Capitals are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 11-5 in their last 16 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Capitals are 42-20 in their last 62 home games. We'll play Washington for 4 units tonight!

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 2:25 pm
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