Jimmy Boyd
4* Major NLCS Smart Money Smash
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -135
Hamels has not been on his game the way he was in the postseason a year ago. The Phillies have dropped each of his last 4 starts and five of his last six road starts. Over his last 3 starts, his ERA is 7.98. Kershaw has been running much hotter for the Dodgers. The Dodgers have won each of his last 2 starts and they were big ones, a division clincher against Colorado and a NLDS win against St. Louis. He has a ridiculous ERA of just 1.89 in home starts this season. Home field, revenge, and a better bullpen are three more factors in LA's favor. The Dodgers fell behind 0-2 in Philly in last year's NLCS and ended up losing the series in 5 games. With home field on their side, they'll be looking to get off to a good start and to pay the Phillies back. Dodgers have a big edge in the pen as well with an ERA of just 2.71 in home games this season. Take the Dodgers in Game 1.
5* Wednesday Night NCAAF GOTY
Cincinnati at S. Florida
Play: S. Florida +3
Just like with last night's Boise State/Tulsa game, the value lies with the home dog. This matchup pits Cincy's high-powered offense against USF's brick wall defense and I give the edge to the defense tonight. The Bulls are only allowing 9.4 points per game and only 263 total yards per contest. They have been particularly strong against the pass, which is what Cincy likes to do, allowing only two passing scores all season and being a very opportunistic unit. The Bulls rank third in the nation in forced turnovers with 16. Cincy's defense hasn't been as dominant and is spending way too much time on the field. Bearcats opponents have held the ball for a nation-leading 36:08 per contest. Part of that is because Cincy has a quick strike offense but part of it falls on the defense too. Bearcats coach Brian Kelly said, "We've got to get off the field on third down.” That will be a difficult task with as well as quarterback B.J. Daniels has been playing. Lastly, there's the revenge factor. After 3 straight losses to Cincy, the Bulls would like nothing more than to knock them off their high horse tonight. The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week, and 8-3 ATS at home against Big East competition the last three years. The Bearcats are just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a road favorite. South Florida pulls off the upset at home tonight.
Iceman
5* Montreal
Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - CINCINNATI
10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA
Don't get sucked into backing the Bulls here, as I know the points look tempting, but there is a reason South Florida is catching a few here, and the main reason they are is that their QB Daniels is going to be a deer-in-the-headlights in this spot tonight.
Cincy senior QB Tony Pike is clearly the better of the 2 signal-callers on the field this evening, and I expect Pike to show his wares on a nationally televised stage.
The Bearcats have won the last 3 against the Bulls, and they have covered the last 5 against the Bulls.
I have watched enough of both teams to know that Cincinnati has played the tougher of the 2 schedules, and a closer look at South Florida's 5-0 mark shows early season wins over Wofford, Western Kentucky, and Charleston Southern. Not exactly a "powerhouse" trio of schools!
Highlly-impressed with Cincy's wins at Rutgers and Oregon State, and they did record double-digits in sacks last week against Miami-Ohio in a 24-point win, but non-cover as the 29-point favorite.
This is an impost the Bearcats can handle.
10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
I just don't get the lack of respect the Phillies are getting in this game, but rather than question it, I will gladly take the plus-money on the defending World Series champs.
Philly easily dispatched the Dodgers in 5 games last October on this stage, and Cole Hamels has handled LA every step of the way. 2-0 regular season since 2008 in 4 starts, and 2-0 last October in the postseason with 14 innings of 1 run ball allowed.
Clayton Kershaw sports a sparkling ERA, but the Phillies haven't been bothered by him, as he is 0-3 the last 3 times he has faced them, 12 runs allowed in 16 innings of work.
Take the Phils!
The Prez
5* Phillies
Dr Bob
S. FLORIDA 26 / Cincinnati (-2.0) 25
Over/Under Total: 48.5
Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the nation so far this season, as the Bearcats have been very good on both sides of the ball while out-gaining their 4 Division 1A opponents 7.5 yards per play to 4.4 yppl. Those stats were posted against a decent schedule of teams that would combine to both average 5.3 yppl and allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. As good as the Bearcats have been this game figures to be a battle against a good South Florida team with a better than average offense and a very good defense. South Florida is not as good offensively as their 6.9 yppl average would indicate, as the 5 teams that they've faced would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team. Dynamic freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels has been fantastic in 2 starts since taking over for injured senior veteran Matt Grothe, as Daniels has led the offense to 6.4 yppl in games against Florida State and Syracuse, who would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Cincinnati's defense appears to have an advantage, but running quarterbacks like Daniels, who has 321 yards on 44 rushing plays, can create problems for even the best defensive teams.
If South Florida is to win this game it will be All-American DE George Selvie and the defense that will have to win the battle against Tony Pike and the potent Cincinnati attack. South Florida hasn't faced an offense as good as Cincy's, but the Bulls did limit a very good Florida State attack to just 4.5 yppl in a 17-7 road win a couple of weeks ago and the Bulls are in a very good situation tonight.
Cincinnati applies to a negative 34-85-2 ATS road letdown situation and 5-0 teams are just 94-151-2 ATS in their 6th game as a favorite of 2 points or more (1-2 last week with Auburn, Iowa, and Alabama). USF, meanwhile, applies to an 80-31-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. The situations give South Florida a solid 55% chance of covering at a fair line and my math model says that the line is close to fair (it favors Cincy by 3 points). I will resist making USF a Strong Opinion here because Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly has a tendency to win competitive games. In fact, Kelly is 12-1 ATS in his coaching career in regular season games when the line is less than 7 points (dog or favorite), including wins this season at Rutgers and Oregon State. I would still rather have the home dog here.
Jim Feist
4* Dodgers Over
3* Dodgers
4* S Fla Under