Bobby Maxwell
300-Unit College Thursday E-Z Play - UCLA
The top team in the country has lost each of the last two weeks with Alabama falling to South Carolina two weeks ago and then Ohio State losing to Wisconsin last weekend. Tonight, Oregon comes in as the No. 1-rated team and the Ducks are laying way too many points against a tough UCLA team. I’ll happily grab all these points and play the Bruins.
It’s the first time in the school’s history that Oregon is on top of the college football standings, and carrying that into a game can be somewhat intimidating.
UCLA has been off since October 9, giving the coaches plenty of time to gameplan for the Ducks. The Bruins had a three-game winning streak snapped by Cal on October 9, with two of those three wins coming against ranked team in Houston and then-No. 7 Texas. Coach Rick Nueheisel knows how to develop a plan, as he showed in Texas when the Bruins completely dominated the Longhorns.
UCLA sophomore Johnathan Franklin is second in the Pac-10 with 113.2 yards rushing per game. The Bruins are committed to the running game and the Ducks have allowed an average of 159.3 yards rushing over their last three games.
Last time these two teams squared off in Oregon was 2008 when the Ducks scored a 31-24 win and came nowhere near covering the 19-point spread, UCLA has cashed in two of the last three years and two of the last three times they’ve met in Oregon.
The road team, and the underdog, is on a 6-2 ATS run in this series and the Bruins come in on further streaks of 23-10 after a straight-up loss and 8-2 the last 10 times they’ve been ‘dogs of 10 ½ points or more. Oregon is on a couple of ugly ATS slides, including 1-4 in Pac-10 action and 0-5 in Thursday night contests.
UCLA needs to play a strong defensive game like they did against the ranked Cougars and Longhorns. Look for them to be in this one through three quarters but let it slip away in the final period. But it won’t slip past a cover. Grab the points and go with the Bruins.
Larry Ness
9* UCLA +24
Anthony Redd
20 Dime - Oregon
10 Dime - Oregon 1st Half
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play San Francisco (+105) over Philadelphia
San Francisco has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also won 9 of the last 12 games vs. Philadelphia at home. Tim Lincecum has won 5 of the last 6 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.57.
NHL Hockey
25* Play Philadelphia (-200) over Anaheim
Jeff Benton
20 DIME UCLA
As much as I love Oregon, as much as I think Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest stadiums for visiting teams, and as much as UCLA has been wildly inconsietent this year, I just cannot lay this incredibly inflated price with the newly-minted top-ranked Ducks. How inflated is this line? Back in June, Oregon was a 10-point favorite in this game. When the numbers came out this week, Oregon was laying 21. And by Wednesday evening, the line had crossed 24 and hit 25 in some spots
Translation: There is absolutely no value in laying the chalk with the home team, even if that team is 6-0 with six double-digit wins and has scored at least 42 points in every game (as the Ducks have). After all, since blowing through its three non-conference games – wins over New Mexico, Tennessee and Portland State by a combined tally of 189-13 – Oregon has found the going much tougher. The Ducks rallied to win 42-31 at Arizona State (failing to cover as an 11½-point road favorite); they fell behind Stanford 21-0 and rallied to win 52-31; and they even got behind crappy Washington State, coming back to post a comfortable 43-23 win but failing to cover as a 36½-point road chalk.
So while Oregon’s first three Pac-10 games have all resulted in sizeable victories, not one was by more than 21 points
Meanwhile, UCLA started the season with ugly losses to Kansas State (31-22 on the road) and Stanford (35-0 at home) and looked hedaded for another long season. But the Bruins rallied to beat nationally ranked Houston (31-13), nationally ranked Texas (34-12) and Washington State (42-28), putting up gaudy rushing numbers in the process. Then, just as it looked like UCLA was hitting its stride, it went to Cal two Saturdays ago and got clobbered 35-7 as a 7½-point underdog (the same Cal that followed up the UCLA win with a 48-7 loss at USC on Saturday).
So why take a shot with the Bruins tonight? More than anything they have a one-dimensional offense – all they do is run the football, averaging 223 yards per game (5.2 yards per game). That pales in comparison to Oregon’s rushing attack (321.2 yards per game, 6.6 yards per carry), but it means that UCLA should be able to control the football (and thus the clock) and shorten the game (the Ducks’ defense is giving up 159.3 rushing ypg in Pac-10 play).
Two more positives for the Bruins: They’ve been very competitive against Oregon recently, losing three of the last four meetings but those three losses were by 14, 7 and 10 points. And its last three trips to Autzen have resulned in two losses (31-24 and 30-20) and a victory (34-26 as an 8½-point underdog). Also, the road team and underdog are both on a 6-2 ATS roll in this series.
Oregon wins, and wins comfortably again, but not by as big a margin as the oddsmakers suggest – look for something along the lines of 37-21.
Teddy Covers
Phillies
Jim Feist
Highroller - Oregon Ducks
Rocketman
4* San Jose Sharks -120
Sean Higgs
10* NLCS GOY Phi/SF 5.5 Under
Ben Burns
Best Bet - UCLA / Oregon Under
Roast - Phoenix Coyotes
Main Event - Phillies
Jimmy Boyd
UCLA at Oregon
Pick: UCLA +26.5
With Alabama and Ohio State going down each of the last two weeks, Oregon now inherits the curse of being No. 1. In games preceding and following a big win over Stanford, the Ducks were challenged by inferior Arizona State and Washington State teams. With a big game at USC up next, I don’t believe UCLA will get Oregon’s full attention. UCLA knows a thing or two about sneaking up on teams in look ahead spots. When Texas was looking ahead to Oklahoma, the Bruins came into Austin and handed the Horns a 34-12 beatdown. I don't expect UCLA to come away with a win tonight, but I do expect it to keep this one within this generous number. UCLA has consistently played Oregon tough, and it will benefit from having a bye week to prepare. Going back to 1992, the most Oregon has defeated the Bruins by is 19 points. Coach Neuheisel is one of the best. In fact, his teams are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games versus incredible offensive teams scoring 37 or more points per game. It is also worth noting that the Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this matchup. Take the points.
Brandon Lang
UCLA/Oregon Over 61
Seabass
50* Phillies
The Duke's Sports
Philadelphia (-120) for 1.5 Units
Questionable decision making by Manuel possibly played a part in the Phillies loss in Game 4. Tonight, however, Manuel should be limited in having to match strategic wits with Bochy; after all, by having the game's best workhorse -- Halladay, who routinely goes deep into the innings of games, he can let the game develop on its own merit. We do realize that Halladay has not had success vs SF (6.66 ERA in 4 starts); however, based on his poise, history, and work ethic, we'll look for Halladay to find a way to cool off Cody Ross and company. The Phillies' lineup is dangerous enough to erupt at any given time and after having seen Lincecum breeze by them on the 16th, we're going to look for this to be the time to do so.
Bob Balfe
Oregon -26
UCLA is ranked 118th in the nation in passing and will be without Kevin Prince at QB tonight. The Bruins also have a few injuries at wide receiver, so I am going out on a limb and saying they will not be able to pass the ball at all tonight. Oregon, well aware of this fact, will throw more guys in the box to stop the run. The Ducks have 3 seniors and a junior on their defensive line and their secondary is very solid as well. Oregon is at their highest ranking ever and will want to show the nation that they are now the team to beat. This is a very good team at home. Although this spread is high, UCLA cannot pass to get back in the game and we are going to see a lot of turnovers and punts. Once Oregon gets ahead, I just do not see this Bruins offense having a chance with Brehaut at quarterback tonight. Oregon’s offensive line has so much more experience then the Bruins defensive line that I expect RB James to have a huge night. The Ducks have too many weapons for the Bruins to handle tonight. This is a game in which, over the course of 60 minutes, should be a blowout. Take Oregon.