Red Zone Sports
3* Florida St -3.5
Bobby Maxwell
600-Unit World Series Absolute Lock - SF Giants
Major surprise in Game 1 of the World Series as the Giants brought their bats with them and pounded out an 11-7 victory, banging out 14 hits against Texas ace Cliff Lee. Tonight, I’m looking for them to make it two in a row with right-hander Matt Cain (14-11, 2.96 ERA) on the mound.
Cain was outstanding in both of his playoff starts, going seven innings against the Phillies without allowing a run in a 3-0 victory and allowing one unearned run in a 5-4 loss to the Braves in the NLDS. The guy was as good as anyone down the stretch this season, giving up just two runs in 22 innings from mid to late September in winning three games.
Cain has made one career start against the Rangers, dominating them back in June 2009 when he allowed one run in eight innings and struck out eight in a 2-1 Giants win in San Francisco.
Lefty C.J. Wilson (16-9, 3.40 ERA) is on the mound for Texas and he did not look so good against the Yankees, losing both starts and giving up nine runs (eight earned) in 12 innings of work. He has allowed three runs or more in five of his last nine starts and the Rangers are just 4-5 in those nine games.
I know the distance between series is big, but San Francisco has now beaten the Rangers eight straight times, 12 of the last 13 clashes and 10 straight times in California.
With Cain on the mound, the Giants have been very good, including 23-9 with him at home, 8-2 overall, 5-2 against winning teams and 4-1 against the A.L. West. Texas is on slides of 4-14 against the N.L. West, 8-24 in National League stadiums and 0-5 when Wilson is off for 7 or more days.
I’ll go with the home-standing Giants and look for a gem from Matt Cain. Play San Francisco to take a 2-0 lead before heading out to Texas.
Derek Mancini
15 Dime - NC State
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Texas (+110) over San Francisco
Texas pitcher, CJ Wilson has won 6 of the last 8 games as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and he has also won 18 of the last 23 night games. CJ Wilson has won 4 consecutive road games when the total posted is between 7 and 7.5 runs and he has also won 14 of the last 20 games coming off a loss.
NHL Hockey
25* Play Detroit (-215) over Phoenix
25* Play Boston (-175) over Toronto
Bob Donahue
Florida State at NC State
Pick: NC State +4
In a game that should mimic last years 45-42 contest, look for both of these teams to go up and down the field in a high scoring contest. I also believe the injury to Ponder is a bit more than its being made out to be, as he has missed some practice during the week with his bursur sac problem.
Tim Trushel
Florida State
Teddy Covers
SF Giants
Florida St.
Sean Murphy
Florida St./NC St. Over 57
Jeff Benton
20 Dime - Florida St
Nite Owl Sports
3 Units Florida St / NC St Over 58
After looking at what both of these teams have done TY, especially their offensive capabilities and results, it’s hard to make a strong case for either team in this match-up, certainly not enough of one to pick either side, at least as an official pick for our subscribers. So we look to the total, and despite a fairly high totals line of 58, we do not believe that one needs to be either a brain surgeon, a rocket scientist, or an award-victorious sports handicapper to realize that the Over is clearly the best betting option in this match-up. Unfortunately, for the same reason, compounded by the fact that this is a nationally televised ESPN game, the “betting public” also seems to like the Over, and has driven the line up from an opening 57.5 to 59 this AM, and we would not be surprised to see it hit 60 by kick-off tonite. So if you agree with us and like the Over, we strongly suggest that you get in your bet(s) sooner rather than later. So why, you might ask, is our pick at 58, when the consensus line is now at 59? The answer is very simple – as soon as we determined that we liked the Over, we looked at the consensus lines at > 10 major sports books, both in Vegas and off-shore, and saw that it was starting to move upward, with a few 58s left but more 58.5s, so we decided it was time to “pounce,” which we did, and released this pick to our subscribers yesterday, at 58. That’s part of what we regularly do for our subscribers.
But let’s now focus on why we like the Over in this game. First, both teams have very good, well seasoned QBs in FSU’s Chris Ponder and NC State’s Russell Wilson, have shown some strong OVER trends which are applicable to this game, such as Fla State being 15-5 in their last 20 October games, and 7-3 to the Over in their L 10 road games, while NC State is 7-1 Over in October, and a ridiculous 13-3 Over in their last 16 conference games. TY, the first for Jimbo Fisher as head coach at FSU, although he was OC there prior to TY and basically ran the offense for “figure head” coach Bobby Bowden LY, the Noles are 2-1 to the Over in their 3 roadies, with an average of 58 total points, with the under coming against punchless Virginia, a game in which FSU scored 34 points. And in their four games prior to LW’s mental “no show” against a crappy Boston college team, in which they were favored by 22 points but scored just 24, obviously thinking about both this game tonite and their huge blowout (45-17) victory the week before at Miami (a 15 unit “trifecta” for us in our biggest CFB play so far this season, hitting with FSU ATS, on the 1H line and on the ML), they averaged 36 ppg on offense. And their well balanced offense (410 TYPG, consisting of 216 YR on 5.5 YPC and 195 YP) matches up well against a NC State defense that cannot defend very well against either the run (160 YRPG and 5.5 YPC allowed) or the pass (220 YPPG allowed). And just LW in their OT upset loss at East Carolina, the Pack coughed up 376 YP to ECU’s Domenique Davis, a BC castoff. So we expect Noles to do some serious business tonite on offense. Let’s also look at the NC State offense, which not only gains more than twice as much yardage passing (306 YPG) than running (138 YPG), but also runs an average of 80 plays per game and passes ten times more per game than runs (45-35), all of which is good for the Over. And Pack has not surprisingly averaged 66 total ppg in their last four, with a 2-1 Over log at home TY and an average of 60.5 total ppg in those 3, and easily going over in their last two HGs, with 71 total points vs Va Tech and 61 against BC, with the offense scoring 30 and 44 points in those two games. And NC State 3Y QB Russell Wilson, despite his great #s LY (> 3000 YP with a TD/INT ratio of 31/11) and so far TY (> 2100 YP on 58% completions and 18 TDPs), has also had 9 INTs already TY, including 3 in LW’s upset loss at East Carolina. That helps keep us off of NC State in this game, but is also potentially good for the Over.
Finally, let’s look at the game LY between these two at Fla State, an 87 point wire to wire score fest, in which 42 points had already been scored by HT. And in that game, both teams also combined for 51 first downs and > 1,100 total yards. So while we’re not predicting another 87 point barn burner tonite, it doesn’t have to be in order to eclipse this high but beatable totals line, whether it’s 58 or even 59. But officially, it’s 3 units on the Over 58.
Stan Lisowski
3* Phoenix +6.5
The Jazz looked awful last evening in a game where they did very little right, losing by 22, committing a ton of fouls while having 22 turnovers. The Suns are rested and come into this off of a beat of their own, a situation where they were 21-12 ATS in last year. Utah is just a 30% spread proposition at home off of a game the prior night the past 2 seasons.
Wayne Root
Millionaire - NC St
Brandon Lang
NC State +3.5
BIG AL
Rangers / Giants Under
Utah Jazz
ATS Lock Club
4 Units SF Giants -115
3 Units Florida State -3.5