Chris Jordan
100♦ VIRGINIA TECH
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
San Antonio vs. Chicago
Play: Over 193
For a number of different reasons I feel we're getting excellent value on the "over" in this matchup: Derrick Rose will be in the lineup tonight for Chicago; the Bulls star point guard sat out the last three weeks but has been cleared to play tonight. Rose averaged 6.3 assists and 16.8 points per game.
Other than Ben Gordon, who left to the Pistons, the core of the Bulls remains much the same as last season with Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, John Salmons and Luol Deng all returning.
Salmons, acquired from Sacramento, started 21 games for the Bulls, averaging 18.3 points last year. He averaged 26.5 on 65.4 % shooting in two games against the Spurs last season.
Deng averaged 17.0 points and 6.3 rebounds for Chicago in 2007-08, but missed the final 22 games last season plus the playoffs with injury and finished with his lowest scoring average (14.1) since his 2004-05 rookie season; Deng should continue to improve and will also be leaned on to pick up the offensive slack with Gordon's absence.
On the other side of the court: I was on the Spurs yesterday and they laid down a 113-96 beating on the visiting Hornets. Tony Parker finished with team highs of 17 points and six assists in 26 minutes before leaving the game after having the wind knocked out of him.
Richard Jefferson's San Antonio debut was unspectacular; five points on 1-of-7 shooting; I expect him to play more relaxed and have a much better game this evening.
Bottom line: The Spurs displayed the type of balanced scoring that figures to be a trademark for this team as they poured in 57 halftime points vs. New Orleans. Six players finished in double-figures and three more had nine points each. San Antonio has an opportunity to start its season strong and to put some ground between it and perennial opponent, Dallas. They play six of their first 10 at home, with one win already under their belts. Meanwhile, Dallas, which lost its home opener, plays seven of its next 10 on the road; to accomplish this San Antonio is going to have continue to concentrate on the offensive side of the ball.
The Bulls are an up-tempo team that loves to play the run-and-gun; expect this contest to be a high-scoring affair; play on the OVER! 7*
Bob Balfe
Phillies/Yankees Over 9
Mike Lineback
SA Spurs
Rocketman
New Jersey vs. Boston
Play: Boston -145
Boston hasn't played since October 24th and New Jersey had to play last night so the Bruins are well rested while the Devils aren't. Bruins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Atlantic. Bruins are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bruins are 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bruins are 53-22 in their last 75 vs. Eastern Conference. Bruins are 36-15 in their last 51 home games. Bruins are 36-15 in their last 51 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Bruins are 40-19 in their last 59 games following a win. We'll play Boston for 3 units tonight!
Tony George
Philadelphia vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9
Both pitchers have a ton a pressure, Pedro for his remarks to the media, and Burnett who has not pitched well, and been lit up in key spots. The Yanks bullpen show weakness in Game 1 and while the Phillies did not use their bullpen, I think the Yanks heat up the bats tonight this one scores some runs. The Phillies scored 6 runs against a better starter and a stifled bullpen last night, I think this one is more of shootout.
Play 1 Unit Over
Ron Raymond
Denver vs. Portland
Play: Over 199
When ANY NBA Team played as a +6.5 to +9 Road Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - Last 5 years - Coming off 1 over - Scored 110 or more points FOR in their last game; the OVER is 26-15-1 for the Road Underdog in this role the last 5 years. Take the Over.
Evan Altemus
San Antonio vs. Chicago
The Spurs looked like they are poised to be one of the best teams in the Western Conference this season after destroying New Orleans last night. The Spurs made terrific off-season acquisitions with the additions of Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson, as well as drafting DeJuan Blair. However, the biggest difference this season is that the Spurs now have a healthy Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker. Meanwhile, Chicago does not have Ben Gordon this season, as he went to Detroit in the off-season. I think his absence will have an impact early on for the Bulls while they try to get in-sync with a new starting line-up. Derrick Rose is also banged up heading into this game, even though he is expected to start. San Antonio was able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter last night, so the back-to-back games won’t affect them at all, especially since it’s only the second game of the season. San Antonio has also been a good road team over the last few years. I feel that there is a significant difference between the better teams in the Western Conference and the mid-level teams in the Eastern Conference. Look for the Spurs to get a dominant road win tonight.
4 UNIT SELECTION SPURS
Lenny Del Genio
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -16.5
Although the spread is sizable, we certainly do not like UNC QB Yates against the Hokies superb defense. The Tar Heels are averaging just 289.3 YPG on the offensive side of the ball and have lost three straight conference games. Yates has a lousy TD:INT ratio of 7:8, which is pretty unacceptable at this level. Since allowing Alabama to run wild in the opener, the VA Tech defense has been dominant, allowing just 317 yards and 19 points per game. Their one weakness is against the run, but note that the Tar Heels have rushed for 39 yards or less as a team in three different games this season. The Carolina defense has also been good, but they absolutely collapsed last Thursday at home vs. Florida State and who knows how they will respond from such a crushing loss? Plus, the Virginia Tech rushing attack of QB Taylor and RB Williams will be the toughest they've faced all season. Since joining the ACC, the Hokies have won all five meetings with the Tar Heels, so they seem to have their number. North Carolina has failed to score more than 17 points in each of the last four meetings. VA Tech has had a couple extra days to prepare (last played on 10/17), is coming off a loss, and is 12-6 ATS coming off a bye. They are also an excellent 14-3 ATS in Thursday night games (9-2 ATS at home) and have won 12 straight home games overall. UNC is just 1-13 SU in ACC road games outside of the Tar Heel State and in their last 16 road games against ranked opponents, the average loss has come by 22.6 PPG. Virginia Tech is our CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Halfbets/SSG
Phillies/Yankees over 9 (9*) BBD
Phillies ML +175 (4*)
Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - NORTH CAROLINA
10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA-NY YANKEES OVER
The Gobblers have had a little extra time to stew about their 28-23 loss at Georgia Tech, and while I don't see them losing this game outright, I do think this impost is a little "too tall for the call".
North Carolina is the classic example of a team that can't handle being the favorite - 1-3 this season against the spread - but thrives in the underdog role - 7-3 against the spread under Butch Davis.
The Tar Heels have twice come close to knocking off the Hokies under Butch Davis, losing 17-10 at Blacksburg 2 years ago, and losing 20-17 at home last year as the slight favorite.
Virginia Tech is just 3-8 against the spread their last 11 games when favored, and while they have had a few blowouts this year, North Carolina's defense is staunch enough to hold the Hokies within earshot.
North Carolina entered the season with very high expectations, this is their chance to erase last Thursday's flop versus Florida State, and gain back some respectabilty.
I like the Tar Heels plus the points.
10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA-NY YANKEES OVER (Martinez vs. Burnett)
Last night's UNDER - just barely! - made it a 14-3 UNDER run over the last 17 World Series games played.
I don't think that trend is moving to 15-3, as the New York bats will be quite happy to see their old friend Pedro "Who's your Daddy?" Martinez on the mound for this one, as they were totally dominated by southpaw Cliff Lee last night.
The Yankees will be able to hit Pedro this evening, and conversely we have seen AJ Burnett and his bouts with wildness this October, and tonight should be nothing new against the patient bats of Philadelphia.
Philadelphia has still be OVER the total in 8 of their last 10 road games, and I expect this one to go OVER as well.
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on North Carolina +16.5
The Tar Heels and Hokies have played some intense battles the last couple years, and expect the 2009 meeting to be another close one as well. VA Tech beat UNC 17-10 at home in 2007 as an 18.5-point favorite and 20-17 on the road in 2008 as a 3.5-point underdog. The Hokies outscored the Tar Heels 10-0 in the fourth quarter last season to get the win, so you know UNC has a sour taste in their mouth stemming back the past 2 seasons. This is revenge time for UNC who have had a couple disappointing losses this season, most notably their 27-30 loss to Florida State last week where they led 24-6 at one point. This is going to be one of the most hungry teams in Week 9 and they are worth a shot here playing motivated football as a big underdog to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Tar Heels are also 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units)in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. UNC can keep this one close because of their defense as they allow just 16.4 points/game and 266 total yards/game. Virginia Tech is actually giving up 19.1 points/game and 317 totals yards/game in comparison. Take UNC and the points.
ATS LOCK
3 Units UNC +16.5
3 Units Phillies / Yankees Over
Football Financial
3 Units UNC / VTech Over
Savannah Sports
2* Virginia Tech -15.5
Eric Degarde
2* NY Yankees Under 9
Any ATS LOCK CLUB BASKETBALL