Matt Fargo
10* Nebraska -11.5
Jeff Hochman
10* SF Giants -150
Bobby Maxwell
400-Unit College FB Book Buster - Nebraska
It’s the Big 12 opener for Nebraska, who is looking to open the season 5-0 for the first time in seven years when the Huskers visit Manhattan to take on Kansas State. I love the way QB Taylor Martinez has handled himself this season for Nebraska and I’m looking for them to get the win and cover on the road.
The Huskers had an ugly 17-3 win over South Dakota State back on Sept. 25 and they’ve had two weeks to think about that one. Martinez, a redshirt freshman had rushed for more than 100 yards in his first three games and then he was held to 75 yards rushing and threw two interceptions against South Dakota State. So he’s come back to Earth and has been focused on Kansas State for the last two weeks.
Kansas State has opened 4-0 but the Wildcats give up 195.5 yards rushing per game. So they will have trouble stopping the Nebraska rushing attack that averages 309.2 yards rushing per game this season. In their lone road game – a 56-21 win at Washington – the Huskers rushed for 383 yards with Martinez accounting for 137 yards and three TDs.
Defensively, Nebraska gives up just 12.8 points a game and just 126.3 passing yards per contest. They have allowed 139 yards rushing per game and will put all attention on Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas who had 150 all-purpose yards against them last season.
Nebraska got the win over Kansas State last year 17-3 and came up short as a 15 ½-point favorite. But the Huskers won and covered the previous three games, including 56-28 blowout as six-point favorites the last time they visited Manhattan in 2008.
Nebraska leads the all-time series 77-15-2 and the Huskers come in on several ATS streaks, including 6-2 on the road, 9-4 against winning teams, 5-1 on Thursday and 6-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. Kansas State is on ATS skids of 0-5 at home against teams with winning road records and 2-5 as a home underdog.
In this series, the road team has covered the number four of the last five meetings. I’m looking for Nebraska to put on a show tonight and crush Kansas State by 21. Look for something in the range of 35-14. Lay the points and play Nebraska.
David Banks
Kansas State
Kansas State Under
Tampa -120
SF Giants -150
Jeff Benton
30 DIME - NEBRASKA
I admit that in most instances, I’d be all over the points with the double-digit home underdog in a nationally televised Thursday night conferance showdown – especially since the big road chalk has a huge home game on deck (Nebraska hosts Texas a week from Saturday). However, I’m siding with the Cornhuskers here for two main reasons:
1) Nebraska’s Bo Pelini is a no-nonsense coach who doesn’t put up with lackluster performances, and his team was extremely lethargic in its most recent contest on Sept. 25, getting past Division I-AA South Dakota State 17-3 at home (although it was a non-lined game in most places, if you searched you could Nebraska as a 41½-point favorite). One week after rolling up 553 yards in a 56-21 road rout of Washington, the Huskers managed just 345 yards and committed three turnovers against South Dakota State.
You better believe the last 10 days were hell for Nebraska’s players, as Pelini reminded his troops that such an effort won’t be tolerated. So I expect a much more poliished performance from the Huskers tonight in Manhattan.
2) There is a clear-cut fundamental mismatch in this game, and it comes in the form of Nebraska’s rushing offense vs. Kansas State’s rushing defense. The Huskers are gashing opponents for 309.2 ypg on the ground, averaging a whopping 7 yards per carry; K-State is allowing opponents to run for 195.5 ypg (4.6 per carry). In their 17-13 win over Central Florida on Sept. 25, the Wildcats got outgained 344-272, including 252-83 on the ground.
And check this out: Nebraska has won five straight meetings against Nebraska, and the last four have been blowouts by scores of 21-3 (at K-State), 73-31, 56-28 (at K-State) and 17-3. In those four games, the Huskers piled up 814 rushing yards (203.5 ypg) and the Wildcats have rushed for 329 yards (82.3 ypg).
On the other side of the ball, Pelini’s defense has been absolutely unbelievable, limiting 11 straight opponents to 21 points or less (average of 11.5 ppg), with eight of those 11 held to 13 points or less. In 17 games since the start of last season, only Texas Tech (31-10 win) has topped 21 points against the Huskers (the other 16 foes averaged 10.4 ppg). And in eight games away from Lincoln, Nebraska has given up the following point totals: 21 (the blowout win at Washington last month), 0, 13 (vs. Texas in the Big 12 champilnship game), 20, 17, 10, 12 and 16. That’s an average of 13.6 ppg allowed.
Finally, Nebraska has been very comfortable in this role of big road favorite, going 8-1 ATS in its last nine as a double-digit road chalk. Overall, the Huskers have cashed in six of eight on the road, and they’re on a 5-1 ATS roll in these marquee Thursday contests
SEABASS
50* Braves
50* Twins
200* Steam Texas
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play San Francisco (-150) over Atlanta
Atlanta has lost 9 of the last 12 games when playing on a Thursday and they have also lost 6 of the last 7 games when playing in the month of October. San Francisco pitcher, Tim Lincecum is 6-2 vs. Atlanta over his career with an ERA of 2.89 and he has an ERA of 1.80 over the last three overall starts.
50* Play Texas (+110) over Tampa Bay
James Shields has lost 12 of the last 17 games coming off a loss and he has also lost 11 of the last 16 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. James Shields has lost 4 of the last 5 games at home when the line is between -100 to -125 and he is 0-3 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 8.82.
50* Play Minnesota (+105) over New York
Minnesota has won 44 of the last 68 games after having lost five or six of the last seven games and Carl Pavano has won 4 of the last 5 games coming off two or more losses. Carl Pavano has an ERA of 3.58 vs. New York over his career and he has an ERA of 3.71 in home games this season.
NHL
25* Play Chicago (-125) over Colorado
25* Play Edmonton (-110) over Calgary
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Atlanta +145
1 Unit Texas/Tampa Over 8
1 Unit Kansas St +11
Teddy Covers
Yankees/Twins Over
BIG AL
Rangers / Rays Over
Mike Lineback
4* NY Yankees
Tony George
Kansas St. +12
Derek Mancini
20 Dime - Texas
5 Dime - Nebraska
JR O'Donnell
Nebraska -11
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Nebraska Cornhuskers -10.5
4 Units Minnesota Twins +105
3 Units Texas Rangers +110