The Duke's Sports
Nebraska Over (48) for 2 Units
We see a few points of value here for an "over". Nebraska's offense is potent this year with plenty of speed at the skill positions, including QB Taylor Martinez who is a major threat in their spread option attack. They'll be attacking the K State' run-stop-unit which has given up nearly 200 ypg thus far. And despite the extra time to prepare, the K-State' scout offense is unable to simulate the Nebraska offensive speed and rhythm that is exhibited in the game; consequently, the K-State' defense, which has been shoddy vs less productive offensive opponents this season should allow Nebraska to frequent the end zone. As for the extra prep time, both of these teams are a combined 8-1 O/U with extra rest. We do realize Nebraska has a rock solid defense but not impenetrable. K-State has a seasoned offensive line, a pretty good decision making QB in Coffman, and a major NFL prospect RB in Daniel Thomas. We'll look for them to mount scoring drives vs a Nebraska defense that is thin at LB with Compton (foot) and Fisher (leg) out. K-State is 6-2 O/U as a home dog and 6-1 O/U in their last 7 conference tilts. This series has gone 10-2 O/U in its last 12 meetings. "Over" the call.
Lenny Del Genio
Kansas St +11.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* SF Giants -153
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Derek Lowe gets the nod for the visitors; Lowe has been hot coming into this game; he's enjoyed success against the Giants as well, however keep in mind that the achilles heel of this team this year has been its play on the road; a money burning 35-46 (-16.7 units) away from friendly confines.
In the other dugout: Tim Lincecum heads to the hill for the home side; Lincecum has been up and down this year but finished 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA; he's also coming off an 11 strike out over seven inning victory on Wednesday over the D-Backs; coming into today's game he's won 5 of his last 6.
Important to note: San Francisco has crushed right-handed pitching; 68-51 (+12.2 units) vs. right-handed starters; also 49-32 (+5.9 units) in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: San Francisco is extremely tough at home which does not bode well for a team thats struggled on the road all year; when taking into account the rest of the above situational factors;
O.C. Dooley
Atlanta Braves +150
Both of these teams literally “backed” into this position with each actually losing 2 of 3 games in front of the home fans during the final weekend of the regular season. Both of these sides also had “playoff like” contests throughout most of September and both are almost dead-even in the WIN column. Due to the similarities an “underdog” wager late this evening has a very high percentage of cashing a winning ticket, especially since the underdog in this particular case has the “hotter” starting pitcher along with a retiring manager who has won the “fourth most” combined games than any skipper in postseason history. Despite becoming one of a selected few managers to reach the 2,500-victory plateau, Atlanta’s Bobby Cox will always be looked at as an ultimate “loser” since he has only ONE World Series title to his credit. The odds of Cox winning only one Fall Classic despite capturing an unprecedented 14 consecutive divisional titles would appear to be slim, especially since the oddsmakers cast the Braves as favorites for most of the way. The bottom line is that it has always been beneficial to place a wager on Bobby Cox was he is an UNDERDOG in the postseason and the banged up Braves certainly are that late this evening. Not only has Atlanta struggled on the road this season, there most consistent hitter Martin Prado was recently lost for the year due to a major INJURY that also has sidelined long time star infielder Chipper Jones. As the schedule has turned out, these two teams have had an “extra day” to prepare which is highly beneficial for the Braves who are banged up. Not only is this the final playoff run for Atlanta’s long time manager who has WON at every step in his major league career, this is also the swansong for star closer Billy Wagner who will soon be retiring to a farm far away from civilization in the Virginia mountains. Simply put Wagner statistically has been dominant this season and will be a key figure in the late innings of this National League Divisional series. Even though Tim Lincecum is a two-time Cy Young award winner, one could argue that the HOTTER starter this evening is Atlanta veteran Derek Lowe who has vast playoff experience not only with the Dodgers, but also with the Red Sox. Lowe is one of many veterans in the late stages of their career who Atlanta signed in an effort to make one last run of glory with Cox as their manager. Since their winning record just like the Giants is predicated on outstanding pitching, it should come as no shock that Atlanta is a money-making “22-10” the past two years when the posted total ( 7-or-less runs) has been extremely low