Ron Raymond
PIT +125 vs PHI
The Penguins got caught looking ahead to tonight’s game against the Flyers, as they lost 3-0 to Phoenix and Fleury is expected to get the start tonight and he’s 15-6 SU vs. the Flyers. Make no mistake about this game, it’s a division game and it’s the Battle of Pennsylvania, emotions will be high, which means tons of power plays for both teams.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 5 Philadelphia 3
Tim Trushel
Regular Cards Under
SEABASS
50* Devils
10* Angels for the series (WS) +500
20* Col OV
20* Bos UN
100* Steam Nebraska
Dave Malinsky
4* BOSTON over ANGELS
Watching the line drop on this one is almost like viewing the October temperatures, with steady Angel action reducing this to where -105 has now become available, and perhaps something even better over the course of the day. With the Red Sox having edges with Jon Lester over John Lackey, and even bigger edges when the bullpens come into play, that makes this impossible to pass up. Lester is an under-valued item here. As impressive as his 15-8/3.41 looks, with the Red Sox going 22-10 in his 32 starts, he brings much more to the table. Of the 101 pitchers that worked at least 125 innings this season his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #14, which makes those base numbers bolder. But even more so is that he opened the season at 3-5/6.07 before getting his mechanics in order. Since then it has been a 12-3/2.31 over the last 22 starts, with the Red Sox going 17-5 in that span, and in 12 of those 22 games he allowed one earned run or none. A legitimate case can be made that there was not a better pitcher in the A.L. in that span. Now he brings some particular matchup advantages against the Angels. He held them without an earned run over 14 innings in the playoffs LY, with more strikeouts than hits allowed, and since the Angels have not faced him since then there is a lack of familiarity from this lineup that puts them on their heels again. And while this offense was third in the A.L. in stolen bases, with the Red Sox extremely weak throwing out base-runners, Lester only allowed 19 steals over 203.1 innings. That takes away a big part of the Angel attack. Meanwhile John Lackey was nothing special this season, working to a 3.83 as the team behind him went just 14-13 over 27 starts. He does not bring any particular form to the table, with an ugly 8.31 over his last three starts that includes an alarming count of 21 hits vs. only eight strikeouts. And he faces difficulties throughout the Boston lineup, particularly Victor Martinez (.476 over 21 at-bats), Dustin Pedroia (.375 over 16), David Ortiz (.333 with two home runs and 10 rbi?s in 33), Kevin Youkilis (.294, but with two home runs and four rbi?s in just 17 at-bats). His presence on the mound also leads to an offensive downgrade for the Angels, with the weaker bat of Jeff Mathis (.211-5-28) replacing the punch of Mike Napoli (.272-20-56) But all the Lester/Lackey matchup does is set the table for where the real edges are here, and that is in the latter stages, where the bullpen mismatch is major. The Red Sox are loaded with both quality and depth, leaving Terry Francona with multiple options from both sides of the mound. For the Angels it is a different story, with a mediocre group of set-up men, and the inconsistency of closer Bryan Fuentes providing season-long issues. It is during those pressure late-game moments that Boston takes this one over, particularly as confidence issues come into play ? the Red Sox are 9-1 against the Angels in the post-season since 2004, having trailed in only 7.5 of the 94 innings. And note that those were games when Mike Scioscia had Francisco Rodriguez available in the bullpen. He just does not have the options to be able to turn that Boston dominance around.
Doc's Sports
NHL
2 Units Anaheim
2 Units Atlanta
Stu Feiner
2500-Dime Nebraska -3.5
5,000-Dime Boston -107
100-Dime Colorado +145
INDIAN COWBOY
4 Unit Play. Take Under between the St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers
Both of these should be a great game. I like the Under between these two teams as Wainwright has a great shot at being the National League MVP. He comes off a rough start in his last effort and prior to that he had continued to be one of the best pitchers in the league. Wainwright has a 2.63 era and nearly posted his 20th win of the year. The last time he faced the Dodgers, Wainwright went seven strong innings and gave up just two runs en route to helping his team win 3-2. Plus, the Cardinals come off a 3-5 loss so that is even more reason why the Cards will be depending on Wainwright to step up today. Clayton Kershaw struggled in his last effort against the Cardinals and I expect him to bounce-back a bit at home today. Joe Torre has obviously shown a great deal of trust in him to start him this evening. The Southpaw has put together a great season as he has a 2.79 era and I suspect he too will have a strong effort after falling a bit short against the Cardinals at home last time out. In short, I expect this game to be a pitcher's duel this evening. The Under is 9-3 when the Cardinals face a lefty of late and the Under is 6-1 in Kershaw's last seven starts overall. The Under is also 4-0 in Kershaw's last four starts against the Cardinals overall as well.
4 Unit Play. Take Boston Redsox -110 over the LA Angels
I understand that the Redsox are facing John Lackey on the road. But, I also understand that Jon Lester has been one of the best if not the best pitcher in the second half of the season in the American League. Lester went 12-3 with a 2.31era in his final 22 starts which is simply remarkable. On top of that, he has not faced the Angels this year which is to his advantage as they have not had a chance to be familiar with his pitches. On the other hand, the Resox have faced Lackey plenty of times and have had success against him as well. Lackey is 3-7 with a 5.25 era in fourteen regular season starts against the Redsox and he is 0-2 with a 3.66era in the playoffs against them as well. Plus, Lackey comes into this game 0-3 with a 4era over his last six starts as well. The Redsox need to pick a game off on the road at some point and I think they will look to strike early with Lackey on the mound today. The Redsox are 4-0 when Lester starts with the current total set at this range and the Angels are 1-10 in their last 11 playoff games.
FRANK PATRON
FIRST EVER 50000 UNIT MUST WIN FOOTBALL LOCK
MISSOURI TIGERS +3.5
Tony Salinas
25* LA Angels (+105) over Redsox
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.
24* Rockies / Phillies UNDER 9 Runs
Mostly sunny. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
24* Cardinals / Dodgers UNDER 7 Runs
Sunny. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
WAYNE ROOT
2009 Football Upset Club
4*Missouri (+3½) over Nebraska
Anthony Redd
20 Dime Nebraska
10 Dime Nebraska 1st half
KBHoops
5* Missouri +3.5 **POD**
5* Phillies -158
5* Angels -103
4* Phillies OVER 8.5 -120
Pitbull
20 units Missouri +3.5
20 units Philadelphia -160
15 units Dodgers Under 7 +110
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy Huskers/Tigers Big 12 BLOOD BATH on Nebraska -3
Nebraska should be 4-0 right now if it wasn't for a miracle pass by Virginia Tech in a 15-16 road loss three weeks ago. The Cornhuskers are the most underrated team in the Big 12 right now, while Missouri is overrated after their 4-0 start and that will show Thursday. Both teams have outstanding offenses, but the advantage goes to Nebraska behind their dominant defense. The Huskers are allowing only 7.0 points/game and 283 total yards/game on the season. Missouri is allowing 15.5 points/game and 352 yards/game, but they really haven't faced a worth opponent yet. Missouri has beaten Illinois, Furman, Bowling Green and Nevada, all teams with losing records. They even needed to come from behind to beat Bowling Green at home 27-20 in a nail biter. Nebraska is favored for a reason tonight, and the odds makers agree that the Huskers are the better team. Nebraska is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992. The Huskers are allowing only 170 passing yards/game and a 50.4% completion percentage as a defense. The Cornhuskers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record. Take Nebraska and lay the points.
Chris Jordan
200♦ Nebraska/Missouri UNDER
50♦ BOSTON RED SOX
Brandon Lang
20 DIMER - MISSOURI TIGERS - This has trap number written all over it.
Nebraska opened a 1-point favorite and Joe Public has steadily moved this number up to 3 1/2 with a few 4's popping up as of this morning.
Now from what I gather, everyone is jumping on Nebraska mainly because of their effort at Virginia Tech, a game they should have won outright except when you settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, you are asking to lose.
Maybe it's just me but I personally think Virginia Tech is overrated and I won't base anything on that game in handicapping this game here.
This is conference play. This is "I know you and you know me" and it is a matter of who is going to do it better.
Both teams off a bye week so both will be ready to roll.
Missouri isn't just going to lay down and hand Nebraska this win. They will fight for their life against a team they have owned the last 2 years.
At home in 2007 Missouri as a 6-point favorite wins 41-6 and last year at Nebraska as a 10-point road favorite wins 52-17.
Now this year the Cornhuskers are all of a sudden a 3 1/2 to 4 point road favorite? As I said at the top, this has trap written all over it.
It wouldn't surpise me in the least to see this game as a field goal game and that put's the value right smack dab on the underdog.
It's easy to pad your defensive stats against the likes of 3 Sun Belt teams, and Virginia Tech. Now they step up and face the best offense Nebraska has seen all year and you are asking them to lay points here? I just don't see it.
I love value on Thursday night and the underdog is barking again tonight. Who is listening to that bark? I AM.
Grab the home dog with Missouri.
FREE SELECTION - BOSTON RED SOX