5* Sports
4* St Louis
3* Boston
3* Neb Under
BEN BURNS
Thursday Roast
I'm laying the points with NEBRASKA. I've had plenty of success with home underdogs on Thursday nights over the years. However, that doesn't mean that I'm not willing to back the occasional road favorite. In this case, I believe that the road team is offering us plenty of value. Naturally, this is a very big game. These teams are bitter rivals and both are very anxious to kick-off conference play with a victory. The Tigers have been tough at home in recent years. However, I feel that the Huskers are a stronger team and that they come in with a little more to prove. I say that as the Huskers have had little success on the road vs. ranked teams and they'd really like to get that monkey off their back. Additionally, the Tigers have blown out them out in back to back meetings and this is their chance to settle the score. Doing so at Faurot Field on National TV would be a statement that "Nebraska's back" and there would be nothing sweeter to the Huskers. The Tigers do come in with the better record. They're 4-0 while the Huskers are 3-1. However, the Huskers' lone loss came at Virginia Tech (Hokies were ranked #13 at the time) and that loss came by only one point, (16-15) with the Hokies scoring with 21 seconds left to earn the win. While the Tigers have beaten a pair of capable teams in Illinois and Nevada, both those programs have struggled so far. Their other two wins came against the likes of Furman and Bowling Green. The combined record of those four opponents is just 6-12, with Furman (a Football Championship Subdivision team) accounting for three of those victories - those coming against its Southern Conference foes. In other words, Nebraska and Missouri could easily have the same record, if they'd played the same schedule. The loss to V-Tech notwithstanding, the Huskers have been dominating their opponents. In fact, they've outscored Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Lafayette by a combined margin of 142-12. The offense ranks 19th in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 440 yards per game and ninth with 39.3 points per game. The defense has been even better. Indeed, the Huskers are first in FBS in scoring defense, allowing just seven points per game, and their 28 points allowed are their fewest yielded through four games since 1990. Last year was Bo Pellini's first year as coach of Nebraska and last year's game vs. Missouri was his very first within the conference. Not only did the Huskers lose but they were blown out by a score of 52-17. That was their most lopsided defeat at Memorial Stadium since 1955. Its safe to say that Pellini and co. haven't forgotten. While it hasn't been noticable yet, this year's Tigers had the fewest number of returning starters in the Big 12 and were tied (with OSU) for the fewest number of returning lettermen. Look for those personnel losses to finally catch up with them this evening, as the revenge-minded Huskers get some payback, covering the small number along the way. *8 Roast
Mike Lineback
4* Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 -125 (1/2 pt buy)
Strongly believe Nebraska will win the battle in the trenches. Missouri having problems running the ball and defending the run. Nevada racked up 218 yards on the ground vs. Tigers two weeks ago. Plus, first year QB Gabbert hasn't faced the pressure, like he will see from a strong Nebraska defensive front (Pelini style; D much improved this yr). Both teams' coming off bye and haven't played anybody, except for Nebraska who dominated V-Tech on road but lost on last minute blown coverage call. Huskers held the Hokies to 11 first downs, 278 total yds (89 coming on last minute pass), 86 yds rushing on 37 carries which equates to 2.3 yp rushing attempt. Plus, Nebraska ran for 207 yds and lost the turnover battle (0-2) in Blacksburg. Needless, to say Nebraska let one get away. Not tonight!! Weather should be a factor as well. It's been raining all day in Columbia and is forecasted to rain throughout most of game. Low 50's, north wind with gusts should favor the ground game. Another reason why I like the Huskers.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Nebraska vs. Missouri
Play: 9* Nebraska -3
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors: Both sides are coming off a bye; the No. 21 Cornhuskers and 24th-ranked Tigers open their conference schedules at Faurot Field on Thursday night. The last time these teams met, Missouri won 52-17 and that embarrassing loss, no matter what Bo Pelini says, is fresh on the minds of the Huskers. Nebraska pretty much crushed its competition in non-conference play defeating Sun Belt Conference foes Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Lafayette by a combined 142-12. The Huskers only loss came on Sept 19th vs. the Hokies who scored in the final seconds for a 16-15 victory. The biggest improvement to this team is on the defensive side of the ball; Nebraska is ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring defense, after allowing an average of seven points through four games; in total defense, Nebraska is allowing 285.5 yards per game, which ranks No. 21. In their shutout/blowout victory over the Ragin' Cajuns, the offense had another solid performance with Zac Lee passing for 238 yards and a TD in just more than a half of work, while running back Roy Helu scored twice. Dating back to last season, not only is Nebraska 7-1 SU its last eight, its also a perfect 5-0 ATS its last five. On the other side of the field: Blaine Gabbert has been great in replacing Chase Daniel; the sophomore directs an offense that ranks 15th in FBS in points per game (36.8) and 16th in yards per contest (453.0), although he has yet to face a defense as talented as Nebraska’s. Missouri though has issues with its running game this year; and on the other side of the ball are having troubles with the running game themselves as was apparent in their win over Nevada. The combined record of Missouri’s four opponents this season is 6-12, with Football Championship Subdivision team Furman accounting for three of those victories against its Southern Conference foes. Already 0-1 ATS this year at home, Missouri is in fact a poor 5-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd over the last two seasons overall. Bottom line: I look for talented defensive lineman Ndakmukong Suh to get into Missouri's backfield and rattle Gabbert and think first-year starting QB Lee learned some valuable lessons in his first road game vs. Virginia Tech and expect him to be much more settled and prepared for this one; they are playing great overall ball right now and I look for them to exact revenge from last years blowout as the Cornhuskers move to 5-1 ATS their last six on the road!
Doc’s Sports
5-Unit Play Take St. Louis Cardinals -110 over Los Angeles Dodgers
The Cardinals have the best team in the NL. Their lineup has no real weak spots. With Pujols, Holliday and Ludwick in the middle, they have a trio of sluggers. As long as LaRussa doesn’t tinker, (he likes to tinker just to prove that he can tinker) his team should get to the promised land. All he has to do is roll the ball out and let this group play. Wainwright gets the nod on the mound today. He has a 1.20 ERA in two starts vs. LA this season. The Dodgers counter with Kershaw, a 21-year old left-hander. In his last 11 outings his mates have supported him to the tune of just 1.54 runs per game. The Cardinals will take control of this series today.
3-Unit Play Take Los Angeles Angels +110 over Boston Red Sox
We like the Angels in this spot, and price, even though they have a history of folding against the Red Sox in the playoffs. This years version of the Angels’ lineup is deeper than its ever been. They are better equipped to come through in October. We like the fact that they get to face Jon Lester when he is on the road. The angels want it more!
2-Unit Play Take Colorado Rockies +145 over Philadelphia Phillies
Dr. Guru
10* BOS/LAA OVER 8
Dr. Big Daddy
10* Nebraska -3
Trace Adams
1500* Nebraska
Teddy June
Nebraska
Mike Handzelek
Nebraska vs. Missouri
Pick: Nebraska -169
For the last 2 seasons Chase Daniel & Jeremy Maclin have had their way with the Cornhuskers in blowout fashion. Gary Pinkel's terrific tandem have now moved on to better pastures & this is no better time for Bo Pelini & Nebraska to come into Memorial Stadium in Columbia to execute a little revenge. Bo has successfully resurrected a 5-7 team by quickly converting them into a winner finishing the 2008 campaign @ 9-4 with a close out bowl win over Clemson. Nebraska could very easily be 4-0 if they held on @ Virginia Tech 2 weeks ago but got nipped by 1. First year Mizzou' QB Gabbert looks flawless with a 11/0 TD/INT ratio but played 4 soft defenses. The Tigers have covered just 2 of their last 8 @ home and are 4-26 SU in this series. The numbers also show Missouri being an ugly ticket-ripping 3-10 ATS @ home when off a SU & ATS win as a road favorite. Nebraska is looking for that signature win to push them to another level and they're out to prove it tonight. Versus an undefeated conference opponent off a double-digit win, the Huskers' have surely thrived by going 15-3-1 ATS when settled in this situation. Nebraska nearly outgains Missouri by 2 yards per rush and were up against a tougher schedule. Now you know why The Real McCoy Stands Up Here play is to invest $200 on the Nebraska Cornhuskers to pull out a signature win.
BIG AL
25-6 ATS NEBRASKA/MIZZOU ESPN TV WINNER
Nebraska at Missouri
Missouri +4
Analysis: At 9 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers plus the points over Nebraska. I did a double-take when I saw this pointspread, as I certainly didn't expect the Tigers to be installed as a 3.5-point home underdog. Clearly, Nebraska is being strongly rated for its #1-ranked defense (7 ppg), and its ninth-ranked offense (39.3 ppg). Still, the 'Huskers have played three creampuffs (Florida Atlantic, Arkansas St, and La-Lafayette) to go along with its game at then-No. 13 Virginia Tech. But the Huskers lost that game to the Hokies, 16-15, and QB Zac Lee's numbers were less-than-mediocre vs. Virginia Tech (11-for-30 passing; 136 yards; 2 Interceptions). Last year, Missouri drilled Nebraska 52-17, and the Tigers have opened up this 2009 season with a 4-0 record, including a blowout 37-9 win over Illinois. Granted, Mizzou had Heisman Trophy contender Chase Daniel at quarterback last season, but sophomore Blaine Gabbert (who once had committed to Nebraska, before going to Missouri) has taken over the reins this season, with nary a drop-off. Gabbert is leading an offense that's 15th in points scored (36.8 ppg) and 16th in yards (453 ypg). Overall this season, he's passed for over 1100 yards, 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Tigers also have played great at home at Faurot Field, winning 23 of their last 27 games, including three straight over Nebraska. And although not as good as Nebraska's defense, this 2009 Tigers squad is playing much better 'D' under first-year coordinator Dave Steckel. Unlike Matt Eberflus, who co-ordinated the defense last season, Steckel prefers to keep his blitz packages in check, and instead play a lot of zone. The result is that Missouri is giving up a lot of "dink-and-dunk" yards, but not big plays (only three plays have gone for 20+ yards vs. Missouri this season). The 'Huskers have also only won once in their previous 15 road games vs. ranked opponents, and they're a dreadful 6-25 ATS away from home off a double-digit home win. Finally, Missouri falls into 35-12, 37-13, and 111-47 ATS systems of mine that each play on certain rested home dogs off a straight-up win. Take the points with the home dog.
Savannah Sports
3* Missouri +3.5
Eric Degarde
4* LA Angels Over 8.5
3* Boston -103
Executive
250 Missouri
Tony George
Nebraska vs. Missouri
Play: Nebraska -3
52-17. That score has been in Nebraskas stadium scoreboard all week for practice, I know because I was there on Monday in person. Mizzou has crushed the Huskers 92-23 the past 2 years.....NU has not won in Columbia in 3 trips the last 6 years and Mizzou has owned this series recently. Nebraska shut down Virginia Tech on the road for all but 1 series and lost by 1 point in a very hostile environment in a game they dominated, and VT is better than Mizzou by a longshot. NU's RB Hulu is one of the better backs in the USA, and revenge is a HUGE factor in this game. NU will run it and play physical and they have the defense (7 ppg allowed all year) to contain Mizzous spread attack and shut down QB Gabbert, who once committed to NU and then went to Mizzou, and that has been a point of contention as well. Mizzou embarrassed NU last year on national TV in Lincoln, and head coach Bo Pellini has made it a point to have this game circled for 365 days...NU will be the better team here. Remember Bowling Green has a 14 point fourth quarter lead in Columbia 3 weeks ago, Mizzou is beatable at home. Play 1 Unit on Nebraska.
Executive
250 Missouri
200 LA Angels
LT Profits
Neb