Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday September 10,2009

Street Rosenthal
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*200 Clemson Tigers +6 -120 (bought up to 6)
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Coach Paul Johnson was hardly pleased to watch as GT fumbled five times, drop several passes and fail to come up with more interceptions. "We have a little problem with killer instinct and our intensity levels and playing hard," Johnson said. "That is something we have to work on." For Clemson, C.J. Spiller, who opened the game with a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown, did not play the second half because of injury in Clemson 's 37-14 win over Middle Tennessee on Saturday. Jacoby Ford picked up where Spiller left off, striking for a 61-yard punt return score. Ford also added a 43-yard touchdown catch. Don't make the mistake that many will make on Thursday. There is a huge talent difference between Middle Tennessee State and Jacksonville State. MTSU is fielding their best squad in 4 years.
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GT 4-8-1 on Thursday games as Home favorites and Clemson isn't much better at 3-8 ATS on Thursday nights. The trends get better for Clemson is 5-0 ATS vs Ga tech as the away dog. Clemson is 8-1 ATS as a Dog both home or away and we know that GT might as well be a home game for the Clemson fans. Clemson is 9-1 ATS in games 1-3 as Dog and line<10 vs ACC teams. However, GT is 0-8 ATS in games 1-3 as Favorite and line between -4 and -13 since 1991. GT is 1-6-1 ATS on Thursday as Favorite in games early in the season (1-7).
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There is parody in the ACC this year. However, it doesn't mean that any of these teams are high caliber. Based of the trends and potential for having fewer turnovers I will safely take the Clemson Tigers as the live road dog on Thursday. Since +5.5 is virtually a dead number, I suggest waiting and letting the public drive this number to 6. If you can get 6 it is icing on the cake, If not then buy it up to 6.

Joe Wiz

Pay after you win service

Early NCAAF bonus Georgia Tech

KIKI SPORTS
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3* Steelers

RatedPicks
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3 Units Clemson +5.5

HALFBETS
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8* Jays +129 Best Bet
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3* Titans +3.5 1H
7* Titans +6 Game
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7* Clemson/Georgia Tech Under 43

Sid Paradise
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Clemson @ Georgia Tech
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Both teams cruised to victory in their openers but Georgia Tech didn't play anyone worth mentioning. The Yellow Jackets won this contest last year late in the game on a big play. I see it being another close one this year. Clemson should be able to control the line of scrimmage all game with better offensive and defensive lines. The Tech running game is tough to stop but Clemson has play makers in the 2nd and 3rd layers to prevent big plays. Clemson running back CJ Spiller got a little dinged up last week but if he can run effectively in this one the Tigers should be able to pull off the upset. If not, it could come down to the wire as his backups are a little less explosive but regardless I like the Tigers to get the job done and cover. Clemson is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Georgia Tech so we will go with the underdog in this one.
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Pick 6* Clemson +5.5

Kelso

15 Units La Angels (-1½ Runs, +110) over Mariners
Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

Sixth Sense
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Opinion
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PITTSBURGH –5 Tennessee 35
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Steelers won it with their defense last year, although it took a last second drive from their offense to win the SB. Pittsburgh was just average on offense last year, averaging 4.9yppl against teams allowing 5.1yppl. On defense they were spectacular. They allowed just 3.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.3yps against 5.9yps and 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Tennessee was built from the same mold, being just average on offense, at 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they allowed just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. Pittsburgh qualifies in a couple of week one situations, which are 57-19-3 and 66-22-3. It should also be noted SB champs in week one are 7-0-1 ats the last eight years. In 2005, the NFL began playing the first game of the year on Thursday nights with the defending champ in that game. Those teams have gone 4-0 ats winning by 10, 11, 31 and 9 points. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by five points before considering the situations they qualify in. They also predict about 34 points. In the Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh is now 25-0 SU during the regular season when they are favored by five points or more at home. Twenty of those twenty five games produced wins of nine points or more. They are 18-6-1 ATS during that span. In other words, when they are supposed to win, they do so in convincing fashion. They are 8-2 ats against teams at .500 or better during that span so they are not just favored against bad teams. Pittsburgh won their last five home games last year by seven or more points. Jeff Fisher is 24-12 ats as road dogs of less than five points but just 17-18 ats as road dogs of five or more. His teams are also 12-6 ats as a road dog of three or less against .500 or better teams. But, they are just 16-17 ats as road dogs of more than three against .500 or better teams. While Fisher is very good as a road dog, it would appear he is not as good when made a larger dog. Tennessee lost only one game all year last year by more than three points (not counting the season finale at Indy, which was a meaningless game). Baltimore is the closest team to resemble Tennessee that Pittsburgh faced at home last year. They lost at Tennessee 31-14 with four turnovers in a game I played Tennessee. Against Baltimore, at home last year, Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore by three points in OT and then by nine points in the AFC Championship game. I trust the systems and there is value on Pittsburgh but this is a tough dog to lay points against even though the history suggests Fisher’s team struggle in this role. I’ll just lean to Pittsburgh and wait for better opportunities.
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PITTSBURGH 23 TENNESSEE 13

Brandon Lang
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15 Dime Titans
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Free - Clemson

Hi Blade,

Been away for awhile. What happen to Bio-Trends? What do you guys think of Win Sports Now as a service?

Chance

Trace Adams

1500* - Georgia Tech,
500* - Pittsburgh Steelers
500* - Atlanta w/Lowe over Oswalt

Just too many question marks surrounding the road Tigers tonight as they invade Atlanta for this Thursday night special. For one thing, Clemson RB C.J. Spiller sat out the 2nd half in last Saturday's win, and for another this is a short prectice week, and a road game to boot.

Paul Johnson is now in his 2nd season at the helm of the Yellow Jackets, and I expect the Jackets to be that much more diverse in their play-calling, and formations under Johnson's tutelage.

Last year when these schools met, it was Dabo Swinney's 1st game as head coach amid the Tommy Bowden resignation, and Tech still prevailed 21-17 with a late TD to seal the win, and cover as the 2 1/2-point favorite.

Tech has won 4 of the last 5 series meetings, covering the last pair, and pointspread-guru Paul Johnson went 8-3 against the spread last season with the Rambling Wreck, and is now 44-24 ATS his last 68 lined affairs dating back to his Naval Academy days.

Tech's lone Thursday nighter last year was a piss-job on Miami-Florida, 41-23 in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score.

Take Tech again here minus the points.

1500♦ - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

NFL action, and while the impost is starting to get close to a full score, I am still backing the host Steelers to come out and cover this sucker.

I had read a bunch of tip-sheets touting the Titans road mark, and their underdog mark, but what I am wondering is if they honestly think that Kerry Collins is going to resprise the season he has last year?

I certainly don't, and I know that Vince Young is not the answer either.

Pittsburgh does return 9 starters on the defensive side of the ball, and they are quite eager to atone for last season's 31-14 beating they absorbed in Nashville towards the end of the season.

Does the loss of Albert Haynesworth make that much of a difference on the Tennessee "D"? I think it will tonight.

Lay the wood with the defending Super Bowl champs.

500♦ - Pittsburgh Steelers

Talk about a tough loss last night, the Braves gave up a 1-out, 2-run single to the Astros last night to lose 2-1 in the bottom of the 9th. Ouch!

Still, I see value in the underdog tonight, as Derek Lowe has been pitching well down the stretch, and the Bravos are 8-3 over his last 11 starts.

No knocking Roy Oswalt, but at 8-5 with a 3.77 ERA, he isn't exactly invincible these days.

Lowe beat Houston on May 1st, working 7 innings, while allowing 2 runs to score.

I like him to beat them again tonight in the dog role.

Take Atlanta to bounce-back with the win.

500♦ - Atlanta w/Lowe over Oswalt

Tony Salinas

23* Royals (+150) over Tigers
Mostly sunny. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

25* Phillies /Nationals UNDER 9½ Runs
Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from center field at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.

24* Marlins {/Ny Mets UNDER 9½ Runs
Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from left field at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take L.A. Angels (-1.5, +110) over Seattle
I actually really, really, really like this play more than this rating suggests. But John Lackey is coming off a complete game and that actually fits him into one of my fade systems. But I’m ignoring that system and just riding the talent. And the fact that the Angels are an auto play against a lefty starter. The Angels are 37-18 against a southpaw and 8-2 in their last 10 at home against a lefty. The Angels are 7-1 in Lackey’s last eight starts against the Mariners and they are 22-9 at home against Seattle.

1-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-155) over Kansas City
Lenny DiNardo is making his first start of the year and I’m right there to jump on the fade train. Jarrod Washburn got absolutely rocked by Tampa Bay in his last start – eight runs in about six innings – but the last time he faced the Royals he went eight innings and gave up no runs. Washburn has been pretty terrible since coming to the Tigers. But he is still 4-2 in those six games so we’ll shrug and go with the wins over the ERA.

Today's Totals

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Cincinnati at Colorado

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Detroit at Kansas City

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Atlanta at Houston

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Florida at N.Y. Mets

Adam Meyer

5 Units Tennessee Titans +6.5

3 Units Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -1.5, +115

6 Units Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Over 9