Bryan Leonard
Wake Forest at Syracuse
Play: Wake Forest
To show the lack of enthusiasm for this Orangemen team the Stadium which seats 50,000 is expected to have just 37,000 in attendance for the season opener. After five straight seasons of four wins or less Syracuse managed a solid 8-5 season including a bowl win over Kansas State. While Doug Marrone has done a fine job we expect this club to regress this season. They were very healthy last year and they benefitted in close games going 4-0 in contests decided by 7 points or less. The non-conference slate was much easier last season while they face the likes of USC on the road this campaign. The offense returns eight starters but they only produced 22.2 points last season. The defense was very good last year but only five starters return on that side of the ball. Syracuse has been a far better team the last few years on the road so they don't deserve the traditional home field advantage.
Jim Grobe has done more with less than just about any coach in the country. Coaching at a university which is known for their basketball and not football prowess is a major challenge. That said in his ten year career in Winston-Salem he has posted five winning seasons. Off back to back losing campaigns and with 17 returning starters we expect the Demon Deacons to return to respectability. This is the most experienced team Grobe has had in the last decade, and after a huge 9.5 ppg defensive drop last year we expect Wake to be much better defensively. Grobe is 34-24-2 ATS getting points at Wake Forest and the line here is much higher than we projected.
Mid level squads like Syracuse and Wake Forest tend to have a certain level of play based on history and talent. Syracuse exceeded that level last year while Wake Forest regressed. That gives us plenty of pointspread value to open the year as we grade out Wake Forest as the slightly better team catching a touchdown.
Lines2Win
2* Lions -1.5
2* Packers -3
2* Mississippi St -29
RAS
Florida Int -13.5
Chip Chirimbes
Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +1½
We are coming off using the Lions as our Vegas Insiders play of the Week against New England last Saturday and have no problem coming against them here. Buffalo showed some offense last week scoring 35 points against Jacksonville and racking up 443 yards. I really don't expect the Lions to show anything here as they gear up for their opener against Tampa while the Bills must continue to 'work hard.' T
Chase Diamond
30 Dime Memphis +28
30 Dime N Texas +14
Dr. Bob
Strong Opinion
North Texas 24 FLORIDA INTL. (-14.0) 33
There’s been a change in attitude at North Texas with the arrival of experienced head coach Dan McCarney and a band of assistant coaches that know what they’re doing. The Mean Green haven’t been so mean in recent years under former coach Todd Dodge, who was plucked out of the high school ranks in order to get his hot shot quarterback son to follow him to Denton. That experiment was a disaster, as Dodge’s offense didn’t work and his assistants weren’t good at teaching fundamentals. McCarney and his staff have come in and changed things at North Texas and the players are excited about those changes. There has been much more emphasis on tackling in practice, which should help a defense that allowed 5.4 yards per rushing play (to teams that would combine to average only 4.5 yprp against an average defense) and gave up 6.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would average only 5.5 yppp) despite allowing just 57.0% completions (they missed too many tackles after the catch). North Texas is still probably going to struggle defensively, but they should be much better with 7 returning starters and better tackling. Florida International has a good offense that I rate at slightly better than average on a national scale, so I expect the Panthers to score a good number of points in this game. However, FIU has a horrible defense that has a particularly tough time defending the run (5.7 yprp allowed last season to teams that would average 4.6 yprp and they were 1.3 yprp worse than average the year before that) and I don’t see how that unit will be able to slow down two time 1st Team All-SBC RB Lance Dunbar, who has run for 2931 yards at an incredible 6.2 ypr with 30 rushing touchdowns the last two seasons for the Mean Green. McCarney did retain last season’s offensive coordinator Mike Canales, whose offense started scoring points the last 5 games of the season in 2010 after he took over as the head coach in place of the fired Dodge. The Mean Green averaged 33.8 points over those 5 games when Canales ran things his way while averaging 6.5 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and new quarterback Derek Thompson is an upgrade over last year’s injury riddled quarterbacking group that used 4 different signal callers to get through the season. I actually think North Texas will have an equally bad pass attack this season as they had last year (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average attack) due to the loss of their top two receivers, but Thompson could surprise on the upside and I don’t think the Mean Green will have to throw much with Dunbar breaking off big gains on the ground against a porous FIU run defense. My math model would have only favored FIU by 11 points using last year’s stats and North Texas should be more improved than the Panthers will be. My current ratings favor Florida International by only 7 ½ points and the Panthers haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points since 2008 (1-4 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points the last two years). My only issue is that North Texas coach Dan McCarney’s teams always struggled on the road when he was at Iowa State (10-27 ATS as a road dog of more than 7 points). However, that was a while back and Iowa State wasn’t at the talent level of the rest of the Big 12 during those days. North Texas, meanwhile, is not lacking in talent by Sun Belt Conference standards and McCarney and his staff is certainly a big step up in coaching. I’ll consider North Texas a Strong Opinion at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Strong Opinion
IDAHO (-6.0) 35 Bowling Green 24
Bowling Green went from being 7-6 in coach Dave Clawon’s first season in 2009 to a horrendous 2-10 last season with an inexperienced and young team. The Falcons should be improved on both sides of the ball this season but they’re still a bad team. The Bowling Green offense is led by sophomore quarterback Matt Schilz, who completed 61% of his passes but tended to settle for short completions (9.7 yards per completion) that led to a poor compensated yards per pass play rating (Schilz averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback). Schilz should be much more comfortable in his second season and I expect him to be better in finding receivers open down the field, which should lead to a decent increase in his yards per pass play. The real problem with the offense is a rushing attack that was among the worst in the nation last season, averaging a pathetic 3.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team. The Falcons return 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen (not sure if that’s a good thing), but top back Willie Geter is gone and sophomore Jordan Hopgood averaged only 2.2 ypr on 76 runs last season. Bowling Green should be better than their horrible offensive rating from 2010 (1.4 yards per play worse than average), but I still rate the Falcons’ attack at 0.9 yppl worse than average heading into this season. Idaho’s defense wasn’t good last season (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) and that unit should be just as bad this season, but I still rate the Vandals’ bad defense as a bit better than Bowling Green’s offense.
Idaho has a huge advantage when they have the ball, as I expect senior quarterback Brian Reader to improve upon last year’s sub-par passing numbers. The Vandals had an explosive offense in 2009, but experienced quarterback Nathan Enderle struggled last season (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) after being 1.9 yppp better than average the season before. Reader was actually slightly better than Enderle in 2009, averaging 8.7 yppp on 76 pass plays against the starting defenses of the Division 1A teams he faced (I excluded garbage time and games against 1AA teams), which would have allowed 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Reader also got good experience last season, averaging 6.3 yppp on 68 pass plays against 1A teams that would allow just 5.5 yppp to an average QB. Overall, Reader has been 0.7 yppp better than an average quarterback on his 144 meaningful pass plays the last two seasons and I expect him to be 0.3 yppp better than average this season due to a less experienced receiving corps. Unfortunately, Reader will have to do without his most explosive receiver, Justin Veltung, who is listed as doubtful for this game while dealing with turf toe. Veltung averaged 19.9 yards on his 25 catches with 8 touchdowns and will certainly be missed. Another veteran receiver, Preston Davis, is also out for this game so I’ve lowered my passer rating for Idaho from 0.3 yppp better than average to 0.1 yppp worse than average for this game. Idaho’s rushing attack should also rebound a bit after a down season behind a rebuilt offensive line, but I still rate the Vandals’ rush attack at 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average. Overall, the pass heavy Idaho attack should return to being better than average (I rate that unit at 0.2 yppl better than average) after rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average in 2010. There is some concern about big play WR Justin Veltung missing this game, but numerous receivers have emerged over the last month as pleasant surprises so missing Veltung may not hurt as much as anticipated. Either way, the Vandals should have no trouble moving the ball in this game against a bad Bowling Green defense that was 1.0 yppl worse than average last season (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and which I rate at 0.7 yppl worse than average heading into this season. Bowling Green is likely to be a bit more improved this season than Idaho will be but my math model using last year’s numbers would have favored the Vandals by 16 ½ points in this game and Bowling Green certainly hasn’t made up enough of the difference to justify the relatively low number. I’ll consider Idaho a Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Maddux Sports
Braves Over 7.5
Wake Forrest +7
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play Boston (-200) over New York Yankees (Top Play of the Day)
Jon Lester has won 23 of the last 27 home games when playing as a favorite of -200 or higher and he has also won 23 of the last 28 home games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs. Jon Lester is 8-2 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 3.62 and he is 3-0 over the last three overall starts with an ERA of 1.42.
Play Atlanta (-200) over Washington (Bonus)
Play Milwaukee (-185) over St. Louis (Bonus)
Al DeMarco
15 Dime Boston Red Sox -1.5
Trace Adams
1500* Syracuse Orange -6.5
Mike Handzelek
20* A's / Indians Under
7* Tigers
7* Braves
Paul Leiner
100* Syracuse -6
50* Reds / Phillies Over 8.5
Today's Picks
Pittsburgh Pirates -125
Toronto Blue Jays -120
Dom Chambers
80 Dime Wisconsin
20 Dime UNLV / Wisconsin Over
When looking at this game, just look at the starting quarterback position and that’s all you need to know how this game. The Badgers lost their QB from last season, but they were able to acquire senior quarterback Russell Wilson, a transfer from North Carolina State.
Wilson was successful at NC State and all reports are positive that he will do well for Wisconsin. The Rebels are going with sophomore Caleb Herring. Now compound that with a freshman-dominated offensive line and it’s obvious that the Rebels are going to struggle.
Last season, the Badgers averaged 48 points a game and they are expected to keep up the offensive domination. Wisconsin has some national title hopes, so expect them not let up on the gas in the fourth quarter to try and impress some voters.
The Rebels, under second-year coach Bobby Hauck did not cover a single road game last season. Until they show up on the road, I cannot back this team.
Because of the offensive domination, that is another reason I like this game to go over the total. The Badgers may cover it by themselves. The Rebels may score one or two touchdowns to help the cause.
30 Dime Bowling Green
Idaho lost its quarterback and have only three starters returning. I do not expect them to gel this early in the season. Bowling Green had its troubles last season. I expect them to improve a little as sophomore quarterback Matt Schilz has no where to go but up. I don’t expect either team to run away with this game, but I like getting six points and watch this game come down to a final drive.
Jeff Benton
40 Dime Syracuse Orange
This is a case of programs heading in different directions, as Wake Forest enters on the descending side of the football mountain, while Syracuse enters on the ascending side of the football mountain.
In his third year with the Orange, head coach Doug Marrone has improved the 'Cuse from a four win team in '09, to an eight win team (including a bowl win over Kansas State) last season! That bowl win by Syracuse was their first bowl game since the 2004 season by the way.
As for Wake Forest, Jim Grobe is in his 11th season, and last year's three total wins was their lowest in the Grobe era. He is a coach on the proverbial "hot seat", and it is about to get hot in a hurry on the road in game one of the season.
Wake Forest is 3-10-1 their last 14 games as the road underdog, while Syracuse has covered in seven of their last nine non-conference battles. The Orange have a quarterback in Ryan Nassib who is now a junior and has thrown 22 career TD passes, while getting picked off just 9 times in his tenure.
Wake's quarterback, Tanner Price threw more interceptions than touchdowns a season ago, and playing here on the road in a dome is likely to see a carryover effect against the improving Syracuse defense. Speaking of defense, the Demon Deacons stop unit did allow 36 points per contest a season ago, and they are thinned due to academic issues to start the campaign this year.
This one is all Syracuse tonight at the Carrier Dome. Lay the points and collect the dough!