Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 between the LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals
Padilla comes off a shaky effort with his new ballclub his last time out. I expect him to have a better effort today as he looks to rebound from giving up four runs to the Giants at home as the Dodgers went on to lose the game 4-8. I guess it was a bit expected as Padilla had back to back quality starts giving up just 2 runs in San Fran and Arizona and obviously, San Fran had the revenge angle given that they faced Vincente. As Vincete faces Washington who has not really seen him, I expect him to pitch well. Martin is the second best pitcher on the Nationals staff as he is putting together a string of quality starts and given that the Dodgers don't have a great deal of experience against him - and the fact that 75% of the public favors the Dodgers here and the line is about -150, I expect the Nats hurler to have a quality and competitive start today. The Under is 9-3-1 in Dodger's games when the total is set at this mark and the Under is 4-1 in Martin's last five starts as an Underdog.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 8 between the Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants
Penny had a disappointing effort his last time out for this new ballclub in the Giants. He gave up seven runs in less than 3 innings at LA. Of course, that came off him dominating the Dodgers at home in San Fran as the Giants went on to win that game 7-2. He had only defeated the Padres in the start prior to that 9-4 giving up just two runs in seven innings. I expect Penny to bounce-back today and the Giants to have a strong chance of winning given they are just four games back of the Rockies. Having said that, I can't go against Ryan Dempster who pitched brilliantly in his last start but fell short 1-2 as he picked up a no-decision. It was a shame as he pitched 8 innings of 1 run ball. Rino usually has a non-quality start after two quality starts and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants to also take the side here given the playoff implications that exist. But, given the strong reverse movement on the line here as the Giants opened up at -130, it makes me a bit weary of the side. Rather, let's take the under today. The Under is 5-1 when Dempster faces a winning team on the road and the Under is 13-5-1 when the Giants are favored by this margin at home.
Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (-110) over Chicago Cubs
0.5-Unit Play. Take L.A. Dodgers (-145) over Washington
0.5-Unit Play. Take Texas (-105) over Oakland
Today's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.0 Chicago at San Francisco
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.5 L.A. Dodgers at Washington
Scott Rickenbach
Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo) -125 over PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Morton)
We don’t play big favorites in baseball and we rarely even step into the “moderate” price range that the Reds are listed at today. However, this is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions right now and – along with the pitching advantage that Bronson Arroyo gives us here – we have no qualms about laying the 130+ price on Cincinnati. The Reds have defeated the Pirates seven straight times. Cincy’s two wins in this series have come by a combined score of 22-6. The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine home games and we look for them to struggle once again at PNC Park this afternoon. Pittsburgh is an ugly 5-24 in their last 29 games. As for the Reds, they are 20-10 in their last 30 games. It seems apparent that Cincinnati is already trying to build momentum for next season while the Pirates are simply “playing out the string” and just can’t wait for this season to come to a close. Charlie Morton gets the start for Pittsburgh this afternoon and he’s 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA against the Reds this season. Morton has pitched better since mid-August but still has nearly as many walks as strikeouts over his last five starts. Also, the right-hander has allowed 32 hits in his last 30.1 innings so he certainly hasn’t been dominant. He just got rocked at Cincinnati in his first start this month as Morton gave up six earned runs on 9 hits and 4 walks in just five innings of work. He struck out just one Red in what was a very rough performance for him. Morton is coming off of a strong start in his most recent outing but it came against a Padres club that has one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Morton will be no match for Arroyo here. The Reds right-hander began his career with the Pirates and he shut them down on just four hits in eight shutout innings back on May 1st. Arroyo has been a “machine” of late as he’s lasted at least seven innings in each of his last ten starts. This dates back to August 1st and Arroyo’s ERA is a solid 2.06 since then! Opponents are hitting just .219 against Arroyo in August and September combined and he stays red-hot hear against a Pirates team that can’t wait for this season’s misery to end. Play Cincinnati on the money line as a 6* Regular Play selection.
Jack Clayton
5-Star Baseball Terrible Total of the Month
Dodgers/ Nationals Under the total.
Even with 3 errors, last night's game slipped under the total. The Washington offense has really cooled off of late, getting only 5 hits last night. This park is huge, a haven for those on the mound. The Nationals are on an 8-2 run under the total. Vicente Padilla of the Dodgers is having a good year, and coming to the NL has been a big plus, which is common. He is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA his last three starts. J.D. Martin has been very good for Washington, with a 2-0 record and a 3.18 ERA his last three starts, and LA has never seen him. Play the Dodgers/Nationals Under the total.
John Fina
Ole Miss
Maddux Sports
3 units on South Carolina +4
Adam Meyer
4* Reds -120
3* A's -110
5* Miss -4
Doc's Sports
2-Unit Play Take Texas Rangers -110 over Oakland A’s
LARRY NESS
15* Ole Miss
Error Texas
Lenny Del Genio
15* SEC Game of the Week
Ole Miss
C Jordan
200 Dimer Mississippi
100 Dimer Mississippi/South Carolina Under
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
Mississippi Rebels @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Selection: 3* South Carolina Gamecocks +4
Columbia South Carolina will be the site of ESPN’s featured College Football Thursday Game of the Week with the South Carolina Gamecocks hosting SEC rival Mississippi Rebels. Ole Miss enters tonight’s contest 2-0 SU and 1-0 ATS while the Gamecocks are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS to start the season.
The Rebels rolled over Memphis in their season-opener, and after a week off, they returned to the field last weekend to post a 52-6 victory over Southeastern Louisiana. With both wins for Ole Miss coming against sub-par competition this will be their first true test of the season.
Ole Miss is averaging 48.5 points per game and holding their opponents to a mere 10.0 points per game and a total of 293.0 yards of offense. This all coming against inferior opponents and tonight’s challenge should prove to be much tougher. Not only are the Gamecocks more talented than either of their pervious opponents this is their first SEC contest of the season while the Gamecocks have already faced Georgia on the road and lost a close one to the Dawgs 41 to 37 between the hedges.
The strength of this Gamecocks team is their defense which is yielding 20.0 points per game and only 249.3 yards of offense. They are extremely strong against the run allowing a mere 87.3 yards per game on 2.8 yards per rushing attempt. Their pass “D” should not be overlooked they are only allowing 162.0 yards passing and 5.6 yards per catch. They have also been making big plays on the defensive side of the ball with ten sacks and seven turnovers in three outings this season.
Ole Miss is coming off a win versus SE Louisiana last week but in that game they allowed them to rack up 302 yards of total offense although they only gave up 6 points tonight’s opponent will be more capable of putting points on the board using a balanced attack.
Through three games, South Carolina has averaged scoring 27.3 points per game while gaining 399.7 total yards. USC QB Stephen Garcia has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 683 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. With running backs Jarvis Giles and Brian Maddox carrying the load they hope to establish their rushing attack against Ole Miss tonight. When they go to the air Garcia will be looking for Weslye Saunders who is tops among receivers with 13 catches and Tori Gurley who leads the way with 180 receiving yards.
These teams do not meet every season but they did meet last year in Oxford and Ole Miss was coming off their huge upset of the Florida Gators in the Swamp the previous week and South Carolina pulled off the upset 31 to 24 as a two-point road underdog. In fact the underdog has cashed the last three meetings between the two clubs. Ole Miss is 3-0 ATS on the road in this series but that is where the good news ends for them. The Rebels have lost their SEC opener SU the last five seasons and they are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 SEC openers. Mississippi is 1-11-2 ATS in their last 14 games when installed as a favorite of three points or fewer.
A check of the database gives us four powerful systems that are active for tonight’s contest with two play ON and two play AGAINST systems. Play AGAINST a non-Saturday road team with less than 11 days rest off a non-conference game against a Sun Belt Conference or 1-AA team. These road teams have posted a record of 1-14 ATS failing to cover the number by 11.4 points per game since 2005. In Games 3-11, play AGAINST a team with less than 5 days rest off 2 games with 9+ days rest each vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 13+ points. These teams are 0-12 ATS and average losing to the spread by 12.2 points per game. Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog off a SU win of 19+ points vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win. These home underdogs are 11-0 ATS and average covering the spread by a whopping 15.8 points per game. Play ON a home team with less than 13 days rest off a home game against Florida Atlantic. These home teams are 11-0 ATS and average covering the spread by a remarkable 16.5 points per game.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Gamecocks win by 1.4 points in tonight’s contest. The Math Model has Ole Miss with a 2.0 point advantage but with our PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index that number falls to 1.1 points for Ole Miss so the South Carolina Gamecocks should not only cover the spread they could in fact upset the #5 ranked team in the country in Columbia on Thursday night.
Take the points with the “ole ball coach” as his Gamecocks surprise the Ole Miss Rebels and end their current winning streak of 8 straight which is the most for the Rebs since 1972 and it ends tonight.
Graded Selection: 3* South Carolina Gamecocks 28 Mississippi Rebels 27
Winning Angle Sports
Play Mississippi (-4) over South Carolina*
(NCAA Top Guaranteed Winner)
Mississippi has won 8 of the last 10 games as a favorite and they have also won 4 consecutive road games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 points. Mississippi is averaging 48 points a game on offense this season and they are only allowing 10 points a game on defense in those same games.
Winning Angle Baseball
Play Boston (-200) over Kansas City* (Top Play)
Play Detroit (-210) over Cleveland* (Bonus)
Allen Eastmen
2 Units Ole Miss
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take Mississippi (-4) over S. Carolina (NCAA Power Play)
Mississippi
• 6-1 ATS coming off a home win over the last 3 seasons
• 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
• 5-1 ATS coming off a home win by 17 points or more
10* Take Colorado (-210) over San Diego (Power Play)
Bonus Plays:
5* Take Seattle (-150) over Toronto