WUNDERDOG
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North Texas at Ball State
4 units Ball State -17 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
3 units Game Total UNDER 59.5 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
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The Ball State Cardinals put themselves on the map last season winning 12 games and a national ranking. The Cards lost a lot on offense and have just four starters returning. But, that includes RB MiQuale Lewis who ran for 1,736 yards last year and 22 TDs, and WR Briggs Orsbon who caught 68 balls a year ago. The Cardinals will be breaking in a new QB, so I'd look for the offense to be dominated by Lewis running a lot here, especially against a poor North Texas defense. The strength of the Cardinals may be on the defensive front line as they have all four starters from a good unit coming back. North Texas has gone just 3-21 over their last three years and went 1-11 a year ago. In the early going last season, they were especially bad, losing each of their first five games by 30 points or more. Even with a lot of returnees, there is just such a mountain to climb here. Despite the losses, Ball State is still light years ahead of this North Texas team and I like them to run away with this one. I also like the UNDER here. The Mean Green will also be breaking in a new QB in this one, so both teams could be pounding the ball and passing short. With two brand new QB's I expect a conservative approach in the opener, and a lot of running. I have a system that features early-season games with inexperienced QBs that has gone UNDER to the tune of 33-16 the past five years. I like this one to come in under 60 points.
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Utah State at Utah
4 units Utah -20.5 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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Utah was a perfect 13-0 a year ago. Despite losing a lot of talent to graduation, this is a team with a lot of depth and excellent recruiting every year. So the drop is not a huge one. They have to replace the best QB in school history but there are three viable candidates, and the offense returns many talented skill players at RB and WR. The defense is good and loaded with talent, especially at linebacker. It will be the defense that carries the team this time around. We go from one of the Mountain West's annual powers, to one of the WAC's annual losers, and the weak sister in the state. The Aggies finished just 3-9 a year ago and have a lot of returning players, but the problem is that the talent level here vs. the Utes is a very wide gap. That disparity is quite big as evidenced by the fact that the last five years these teams have met, the scores add up to 219-41 for Utah, or an average win of 34 points per game. There have been three games decided by 40+ points in the last five years. Utah is the choice in this one.
BIG AL
Thursday Night Game of the Year
At 10:15 pm, our Thursday Night Game of the Year is on the 16th-ranked Oregon Ducks plus the points over 14th-ranked Boise State, as Oregon falls into two revenge systems of mine that are 38-13 and 57-24 ATS since 1980. And our 57-24 ATS system is on a 12-0 ATS run since September 5, 2004! Last year, Boise went into Eugene as 10-point underdogs and upset the Ducks 37-32. But you know what they say about "paybacks!" In last year's game, Oregon was forced to use three quarterbacks due to injuries sustained against Boise State. That, however, shouldn't be a problem on Thursday. And, speaking of quarterbacks, Oregon has a great one, in junior Jeremiah Masoli, who fits new coach Chip Kelly's spread system perfectly. Indeed, Masoli might just be the best QB in the Pac-10. Also, no conference performs better as underdogs than the Pac-10, as its teams are a solid 188-135 as underdogs vs. non-conference foes since 1980, including an eye-popping 79-39 ATS when our Pac-10 team is NOT a losing team, and it's a competitive game where the pointspread is less than 7 points. Oregon, itself, is 23-12 ATS its last 35 as underdogs, including 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Take the points. Thursday Night Game of the Year on the Oregon Ducks.
RAS
Ball St. UNDER 59.5 1 Unit
igz1 sports
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4* Washington +5
4* Under 34 Pittsburgh vs Carolina
4* Miami +3.5
3* Tennessee -3.5
3* Pittsburgh +3.5
3* Over 38 Philadelphia vs NY Jets
BEN BURNS
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Dolphins Under
Panthers
Raiders
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Oregon Under
Utah St
Bryan Leonard
NCAA Opening Night Gridiron Gold
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North Texas at Ball State
A popular theory in handicapping the first week of the college football season is to back teams with a significant edge in returning starters. Our old friend Mike Lee who has since passed was the originator of this theory. Despite it's common thought process in these days the theory continues to make sense and money, especially if you jump on it early. While this game opened higher it's still a value at plus 17 or more as we expect this line to close in the 15 range.
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North Texas returns 16 starters from a football team that won just once a season ago. But now coach Todd Dodge is in his key third year in the program and his son who also happens to be the signal caller has a firm grasp on it's intricacies. Riley Dodge grew up under his dad's tutelage as his father was a coaching legend in the high school ranks. Leading rusher Cam Montgomery from a season ago really came on at the end of the year to give this team a terrific run/pass combination.
Ball State had a breakout season a year ago under coach Brady Hoke but the losses are huge. Three year starting quarterback Nate Davis was drafted, four starting offensive linemen have departed as well as the top four receivers including Darius Hill who was outstanding. This team brings back just 11 starters and a completely new coaching staff as Hoke took advantage of the career year to go to San Diego State. His parallel move tells us all we need to know about this Cardinal program. Hoke knew the writing was on the wall as this Ball State team is in for a terrible fall this season. This now becomes a young team without any proven leaders. Not only must they win this game but they must do so by close to a three touchdown margin. The differences from the MAC and the Sun Belt are not nearly that large as we take advantage of new coach Stan Parrish and his young overrated squad in the season opener.
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PLAY NORTH TEXAS
MR EAST
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THURSDAY 5 UNIT BOMB
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CLEVELAND INDIANS @ DETROIT TIGERS
PLAY: OVER 9.5 FOR 5 UNITS
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The Cleveland Indians have been a terror against lefthand pitching, and the Tigers Nate Robertson is ripe to be had. The Indians are scoring 5.8 runs a game against lefthanders, while their starting pitcher, Fausto Carmona is struggling in a big way himself, entering here with an ERA of 6.20 on the season. To top that off, Cleveland is 36-14 to the over as a road dog, that is 72% to the over. They are also 10-1 to the over when Carmona starts with a total of 9-10.5, and 23-7 in his last 30 starts with the same posted total range, and 30 of his last 42 starts overall have resulted in games going over the total. Nate Robertson has pitched to the over to an 11-1 mark in his last 12 starts vs the AL Central. This one goes over the total.
Jimmy Boyd
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5* NFLX Blowout of the Year Titans -3
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Green Bay (3-0) has nothing left to prove this preseason and because of that Aaron Rodgers is only expected to play one series. Backup QB Matt Flynn is not 100% and that means Brian Brohm, who has looked horrible, should see most of the snaps. The Titans are coming of back-to-back losses on the road and I expect them to bounce back at home here to build some momentum for the regular season. Tennessee has the superior QB depth with Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey. Green Bay's defense gave up 37 points on the road last week and cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson may not even make the trip, and certainly won't play much, if at all, if they do. Lay the points.
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3* 2009 NCAAF Season Opener N.C. State -5
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This one has revenge written all over it for the Wolfpack after getting thumped 34-0 at South Carolina last season. I expect 1st-Team All-ACC QB Russell Wilson to be the difference maker. The Pack return plenty of fire power with wide receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams as well. This core group of guys gives NC State the edge against an S.C. team that lost a lot on both sides of the football. SC's defense carried the team last season and I don't expect it to be as good. While QB Stephen Garcia should be better, he has less to work with. Last season we saw the offense put up the worst numbers in the Spurrier era; 20.9 points per game, 94.1 rushing yards per game, 27 interceptions, and it could be worse this season. The Wolfpack are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games while the Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Lay the points.
Insider Sports Report
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4* Oregon/Boise St. UNDER 64
4* N. Texas +17 over Ball St.
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3* Arizona Cardinals-3.5 over Denver Broncos
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3* Atlanta Braves -125 over Florida Marlins
ALATEX
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20* Superplay: Kansas City -1
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Philadelphia +3
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Cleveland +3
Dr Bob
Free Analysis
South Carolina at No Carolina St.
Favorite: No Carolina St. -5.0
Total: 47.0
South Carolina has been nothing special in 4 seasons under legendary coach Steve Spurrier, losing either 5 or 6 games each season while rating between 2 to 10 points better than an average team. This year's team falls into that range as well. The offense was horrible last season, averaging just 4.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while the quarterbacks combined for 27 interceptions, but that unit should be about average this season with sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia having more experience and with high regarded freshman back Jarvis Giles ready to uplift the ground assault. Garcia completed only 53% of his passes last season and averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but Garcia is likely to be more accurate while throwing fewer interceptions this year. The receiving corps is still a question mark, but I'll call for average passing results for the Gamecocks this season while the rushing attack continues to be sub-par even with Giles. South Carolina was 0.7 yards per rushing play worse than average last season and I'll call for a -0.4 yprp rating until I see what Giles can do). It's certainly possible that Garcia can be a better than average quarterback (last year was the first year under Spurrier that the pass attack was worse than 0.3 yppp better than average, but I'll take a wait and see approach.
The Gamecocks' defense carried the team last season with a dominating performance, allowing just 4.8 yppl against a schedule that would have averaged 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. There are only 6 returning starters on the defense this year (5 with DT Ajiboye suspended for a couple of games), compared to 9 last season, but LB Eric Norwood is an All-American candidate (1st team SEC the last 2 years) and the safeties are good enough to make up for the young pair of cornerbacks. South Carolina didn't really lose any impact players from last year's defense and I think they'll be close to as good this season (especially later in the season).
NC State was a pretty good team last season when DT Alan-Michael Cash and LB Nate Irving were both in the lineup on defense and when freshman quarterback Russell Wilson was behind center and they should be solid this year even without Irving, who is out for the season after a car accident left him with a broken leg. The defense was good with Irving, but will probably be mediocre at best without him (even with Cash back) now that projected starters CB Ellis and FS Simmons have left team. NC State actually was 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season in 2008, so even a mediocre performance will be an upgrade.
The Wolfpack will be a better than average team because of quarterback Wilson, who enters this season with a streak of 249 passes without an interception. Wilson is likely to throw more than the 1 pick he threw all of last season, but he's also likely to improve upon his solid yards per pass play numbers (6.0 yppp last year against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB). Wilson is also an adept runner who logged 548 yards at 91 rushing plays last season (6.0 yprp) and he'll help out a mediocre stable of running backs (4.4 ypr last year) to produce a better than average ground attack.
This game pits NC State's better than average offense against the Gamecocks' stingy defense while mediocrity meets mediocrity when South Carolina has the ball. My ratings favor NC State by 3 1/2 points with a total of 47 1/2 points and I can see this game going either way.
Tony Bruno Wins
20x NC State
ALATEX
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Superplay: St. Louis Under 9
CAROLINA SPORTS
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3* Detroit +3
3* NY Giants -3
3* Cinci -3.5
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3* Troy -7
Opinion: Boise State -3
Doc's Sports
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3-Unit Play Take New York Yankees -125 over Toronto Blue Jays
Tony Salinas
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26* NY Yankees (-125) over Bluejays
Mostly clear. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
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25* Mariners (+125) over Athletics
Clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
Charlie
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Oregon/Boise St Under 64', North Texas/Ball St Over 58 & Boise St -3. (500* triple play).
NC St -5 (30*)
Utah @ Utah St Over 52 (20*)
Troy -7 (20*)
Ball St -16' (10*)
Utah -20' (10*) free play
ATS Lock Club
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4 Units Utah St
3 Units Boise St
3 Units Bears
Robert Ferringo
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1.5-Unit Play. Take Colorado (-1.5, -125) over N.Y. Mets
1-Unit Play. Take L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, -120) over Arizona
1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-1.5, +115) over Milwaukee
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Today’s Totals
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 10.0 N.Y. Mets at Colorado
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0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 San Francisco at Philadelphia
Tim Trushel
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20* TB Rays Under
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Regular Eagles
KBHoops
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5* White Sox +1.5 -135 *POD*
Pointwise NFLX Phone
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2* Philadelphia
2* New England
2* Miami
2* Denver
2* Oakland
KELSO
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15 Units Devilrays (-120) over Redsox
Street Rosenthal
*200 St. Louis Cardinals -180
I am taking the Cardinals for another win today. I have a nice starter trend on Cardinals Starter John Smoltz that is 14-0 SU and several starter trends against Manny Para that total 3-20 SU for his team when he starts. I also have the Brewers as 3-23 SU since 2004 as a road 170+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Finally, I have the Cardinals as 25-4 SU since 2004 as a home favorite after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series. Take the Cardinals for the Win.
DAVE MALINSKY
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4* South Carolina
Chris Jordan
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100♦ TROY TROJANS - The Trojans are picked to win the Sun Belt Conference, they’ve got eight starters back on a dangerous offensive unit and continue to sport one of the nation’s most underrated defenses. Sure, there are some holes to fill with this team, but there is so much talent, I don’t see how it won’t run away with the conference title.
The offensive firepower will be led by quarterback Levi Brown, running back DeJuan Harris, receivers Jerrel Jernigan and Cornelius Williams as well as three returning starters on the offensive line. Quite frankly, that’s plenty for an offense that ranked 26th in the nation in scoring and 27th overall on offense. All we’re talking about with the O is to replace a pair of tackles, and it’s not as if coach Larry Blakeney is plugging the holes with freshmen … two upper classmen will be in those spots.
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Defensively, only five starters are back, I know this, but linebacker Boris Lee is an all-conference performer who has been the Trojan’s top tackler the past two years. He'll get plenty of help from standout ends Brandon Lang (NO! Not the goof you’re thinking of) and Cameron Sheffield. There’s plenty of experience in the secondary, as the Trojans have plenty of upper classmen to join senior Jorrick Calvin, the team’s lone returner in the defensive backfield.
So what about Bowling Green you’re asking? The Falcons are in off a 6-6 season and will be led by new head coach Dave Clawson, who served as Tennessee's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach last season. And while I’d assume his focus will be on offense, I don’t see the defense that returns a mere three starters challenging the aforementioned high-potent offense.
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Lay the road chalk tonight with Troy.
IndianCowboy
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4 Unit Play. Take Under 10 NY Mets @ Colorado Rockies
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Misch has been solid in his starts this season but the Mets just haven't been able to get him a victory. Despite giving up just 1 run in his last 11 innings and having a mid 3 era, Misch is one of just two pitchers in baseball history to go through twelve starts without picking up a win. I like the fact he is continuing to search for his first win. Heck, he went four innings against the Phillies without yielding a run and did very well against the Cubs. Tack that on with the fact Maquis is on a bounce-back today as he yielded five runs in San Fran as he comes off a loss and I look for him to be sharp as well. The last time he yielded five runs, he came back to pitch brilliantly and gave up just one run in seven innings to the Pirates. But, with Misch pitching very well right now, I would rather take the Under here rather than the run-line, although I do think the Rockies likely hit the run-line. I like the double-digit number here and I look for this game to likely dip under.
Dave Busk
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4 Unit Pick Take Atlanta (-1.20) over Florida
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Big game tonight down in South Florida with the Braves four games of Colorado for the wild card and the Marlins right behind them with five games of the mark. I said a couple of weeks ago that I thought the Braves could make a move here and they have taken two of the first three in this series and almost came back from a four run deficit tying the game in the ninth before a Florida walk off homerun. Tonight we get won of Atlanta’s best with Tommy Hanson to the hill off a tough luck lose at Philadelphia where he gave up one run before his start was cut short by rain. We get to benefit from that start where he only threw twenty nine pitches, so he should be nice and fresh with a long outing against a lineup he already beat on August 22nd seven innings giving up three runs while striking out seven. The Marlins send Ricky Nolasco to the bump and he has a little history vs. the Braves and it hasn’t been good with a 1-4 record and a 5.29 era in nine career start’s vs. the Braves, give me Atlanta tonight.
Seabass
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20* Clev/Det Over
20* Pitt
20* SF
20* TB
20* FL
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NCAA FB
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20* South Carolina
20* Oregon
I WILL UPDATE AGAIN AT 6:00 EST