Bob Valentino
30 DIME - UTAH STATE plus the points over Utah
NOTE: As of Thursday afternoon, this number was sitting at 20 1/2. If that number holds, I want you to buy the 1/2-point with Utah State and grab the 21 as insurance. No sense getting beat by the hook when you can get a key number like 21.
Also, as always, shop around to get the best of the number. Never lay more on a favorite than you have to, or take back more on an underdog than you can.
Primetime Sports Advisors
Atlanta -115
Troy
NC State
Trace Adams
1500* - NC State Wolfpack, 500* - Tampa Bay w/Price over Buchholz
The luster has worn off the legend of Steve Spurrier, as his Gamecock career has been a bit streaky at best the last few years.
No issue laying the home lumber with the Wolfpack, as NC State was humiliated last year on opening night in Columbia, 34-0! Do note that starting QB Russell Wilson left that game with an injury, and while I don't think it made a shits worth of difference, it is a fact.
That game came well before head coach Tom O'Brien found his rhythm with his players, and it certainly showed.
The same may be true for South Carolina early this year, as Spurrier has brought in 6 new coaches to help mold this year's team that has already seen a pair of QB's leave for other schools!
NC State begins the campaign with a ton of promise, as Russell Wilson came into his own last season under center, and were it not for an injury in the Wolfpack's bowl game, they very well could have closed the season with 5 wins in a row.
Sure, that was last year, but with 14 starters returning from last year's team, I expect the Pack to howl in their home opener.
Lay the points, as this is a solid TD win for State.
1000♦ - NC State Wolfpack
Lone baseball release this Thursday is to go with Tampa over Boston.
You saw the Red Sox take the 6-5 lead into the bottom of the 8th last night, only to see the pen cough up 3 runs to the Rays in an 8-5 loss.
That makes it a 3-14 regular season mark at the Trop for Boston since last season.
I don't expect that mark to improve, as Tampa starter David Price has been a different hurler at home this year. Price is just 1-4 with a 6.81 road ERA this year, but at home he is 6-2 with a 2.96 ERA! That includes an August 5th win over Boston in which he went 6 innings, and allowed 2 runs to cross.
Nothing against Clay Buchholz, as he has been on the up-and-up for the most part for Tito Francona's club, but if he can't deliver a complete game, then I have my doubts about Boston's bullpen, and I certainly can't go with the Sox in this critical rubber game on the road.
500♦ - Tampa Bay w/Price over Buchholz
Ron Raymond
Seattle / Oakland Under 8.5
South Carolina / N.C. State Under 46
Dr. Guru
10* Was/Jax Over 35
Big Daddy
10* Arz/Den Over 36
HALFBETS
7* Boise St -3 Game
7* Boise St -2 1H
7* Yankees -126
Strike Point Sports
2009 College Football Team Win Totals
4-Unit Play. Take Houston 'Over' 7 Wins
The Cougars come into the year with the clearcut top offense in Conference USA. I forsee them earning seven victories alone in league play. Granted UH doesn't have a cupcake non-conference schedule, but they can get several victories before the conference slate opens up October 3 against UTEP. Overall 2009 will be a nine or ten win season for Houston. With an offensive juggernaut capable of putting up over 40 points per game, they will be a dominant team in C-USA and a main contender for the league crown. Defense still isn't there strong suit, but the majority of there conference games will be won in high scoring fashion. Book a place for the Cougars in the C-USA title game down the road, but during the regular season schedule, they go over their alloted seven victories and turn in a very quality campaign.
5-Unit Play. Take Miami 'Under 7.5 Wins
You can make a strong argument that no team has a tougher four game stretch to begin 2009 than the Miami Hurricanes. Opening up against Florida State, then a bye before three straight weeks against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, I can't see a situation better than a 2-2 start. In fact I just don't see the 'Canes upsetting powerhouse Oklahoma, and its totally possible for a 1-2 start elsewhere in conference. And the biggest issue for Miami will be quarterback play. Robert Marve transferred out, and Jacory Harris doesn't get my nod to carry the load as the full-time starter. And with the ACC being a very strong league as a whole this season, I find it very tough to see Miami findin a groove against quality opponents each week without consistent play under center. After that pressumed 2-2 opening stretch, a pair of mid majors are in the road, but then still on the list is Wake Forest, Clemson and at North Carolina and down in Tampa against USF. Add up the strength of the ACC this fall and the lack of production from Miami behind quarterback Jacory Harris, and I can't see much better than a 6-6 year in Coral Gables. Even bump them up one game better at 7-5 and we still cash this wins total. Play the under with Miami.
4-Unit Play. Take South Carolina 'Under' 6.5 Wins
Again for Steve Spurrier his Gamecocks will be a second rate team in the SEC. Just too much depth and overall talent elsewhere compared to what he has in Columbia. And the biggest issue again like last year was no production from quarterback Steven Garcia. He was on and off benched in '08 and he'll be again the reason why the offense stays behind yet again. Further more SC has to deal with inexperience at the tailback position and the loss of top wide out Kenny McKinley. So basically there are no proven weapons on offense, and when facing the nation's top defensie league, they will find it too tough to consistently put up points against some of the country's top units. They open against North Carolina State and between the hedges at Georgia. Ole Miss is on the schedule, as is a much improved Arkansas team, at Alabama, at Lane Kiffen and UT, as well as dates with Florida and Clemson to wrap up the season. This will be a losing year for Spurrier and company. At best .500, but for South Carolina expect another disappointment this fall.
2009 NFL Team Win Totals
3-Unit Play. Take Green Bay Packers 'Over' 8.5 Wins
My pick to win the NFC North, and I am not sold on the Vikings just yet. I really have taken a strong liking to this Packers offense behind Aaron Rogers. I love his weapons on the outside, and overall this unit is stronger in my mind that what Minnesota has, yes, even with Adrian Peterson. The defense switched to a 3-4, so of course we will see how that goes, but overall I think Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk and company will have a big bounce back year and hold up their end of the bargin. In the end this bet sits on whether I think Green Bay can have a winning season. I think 10 wins is realistic and they are a playoff team this season.
3-Unit Play. Take Seattle Seahawks 'Over' 7 Wins
After a 4-12 season in 2008, things will be looking better in the pacific northwest, thanks in large part to a heathly Matt Hasselback. Playing in arguably the weakest division in the conference, a division title is within reach. Arizona is due for a letdown coming off their Super Bowl appearance, and right now I don't see enough from either St. Louis or San Francisco to garner a legit push from they other two NFC West representatives. As a whole I think last year's mess was a fluke from not having a healthy team on the field for most of the schedule. That won't be the case this year, barring injury, and right now I am high on this team as a sleeper in the NFC.
Paul Leiner
500* Oregon/Boise Over 63.5
50* Braves -125
25* Tigers -140
Sid Paradise
South Carolina vs. North Carolina St -5
NCST will be looking for a bit of revenge after last years season opening beat down at the hands of these same Gamecocks. 5 points is a lot to give an SEC opponent even on the road but picking a side in the one is a bit of a crap shoot. The play to take in this one is UNDER 47. USC plays tough defense and their offense may be sloppy after losing many key skill players to go along with erratic but talented QB Stephen Garcia. NCST should have sound QB play from Russell Wilson. Wilson had 17 TD to 1 INT last season and will look to continue that success. Early season matchups of this kind tend to be more on the low scoring end so the under looks nice for a small play.
Pick- UNDER 47 (-115) 3* play
Utah St vs. Utah -21
This game should be a breeze for Utah. They year after year beat up on their lesser state rival winning 11 straight at this point. Laying the points is a tough thing to do however. Utah isn't sure of their QB situation, which could make for some unforced errors. You can guarantee that Utah St will play from whistle to whistle and could catch back door cover late vs the 2nd stringers. My angle on this one is take the OVER 52. Utah will undoubtedly put up some points and may even score enough to cover the total by themselves as seen last year with their 58-10 stomping. I feel that this one will play out more like 2 years ago, the last time Utah St visited. Utah won by a healthy margin but no where near the expected outcome. Utah went OVER 10 of 12 times last year and they will surely be looking to put points on the board in this rivalry game.
Pick- OVER 52 (-110) 4* play
Oregon vs. Boise St -3.5
Injuries took their toll on the Ducks in last seasons match-up vs. Boise. This years game posses a different threat... Playing on the blue turf of Broncos Stadium! Boise is very tough at home and has won 18 of their last 20 SU (12-6 ATS). Broncos QB, Kellen Moore, should be able to pick apart the Ducks defense despite losing most of his receivers from a year ago. He boasted a 69.4 completion percentage as a freshman throwing mostly short to intermediate routes so the lack of experienced receivers shouldn't be that big of a concern. Boise also returns their entire secondary, which should be able to contain a streaky thrower in Ducks QB JeremiahMasoli. Masoli is also a threat to run but Boise is well coached and should be able to limit the big plays.
Pick- Boise St -3.5 (+105) 5* play
Street Rosenthal
*200 Utah State +21
Take Utah State to cover in this heated rivalary tonight. Most will remember Utah whiping Bama in the Sugar Bowl. That wasn't the Bama seen earlier in the season. Utah St will have their hands full tonight, but will keep it within the 21 needed to cover.
*300 Oregon Ducks +3.5
I am taking Oregon with the points tonight. I have Oregon as 13-1 ATS as an Away Dog in games 1-3. We can tighten that down if Oregon is an Away Dog in games 1-3 and line less than 8 they are 9-0 ATS. I think the Ducks come out fighting tonight to get their first win of the season.
200* Carolina Panthers -3
200* Denver Broncos +3
*300 Tampa Bay Rays -128
I am taking the Rays at Home tonight. I have the Red Sox as 5-19 SU since 2005 as a road dog after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits. I also have the Red Sox as 0-12 SU since 2007 as a road dog after a loss and it is the last game of a series. Finally, I have the Rays as 36-8 SU since 2005 as a home favorite after a win in which they had fewer team left on base than their opponent. Take the Rays for the Win.
Jack Jones
20* No-Brainer on NC State -4.5
The Wolpack are out for revenge against the South Carolina Gamecocks tonight, a team that whipped them 34-0 in last year's opener. some major things have changed since then, the first being South Carolina's defense, which was an excellent squad last year, but who lost 5 key members from that team. SC also lost 6 starters from their offense, which was already one of the worst in the conference a year ago. The big change for NC State has been the emergence of quarterback Russell Wilson, who was stellar as a freshman, throwing for 1,955 yards, 17 TD, and 1 INT, leading the ACC in pass efficiency and total offense. With a year under his belt, things are looking up for the Wolpack, and it starts tonight with a big victory over South Carolina in the Georgia Dome.
15* on Oregon +3
Boise State has been difficult to beat at home in recent years, but they are far from unbeatable. This Oregon team has what it takes offensively to keep up with Boise on the smurf turf. Revenge will be the word of the day for the Ducks, who lost at home to the Broncos 37-32 last season. One thing to keep in mind about that game is that the Ducks were playing their 3rd-string quarterback at the time. This time around they will be well-prepared and should again be able to move the ball against this defense. Most of the money has come in on the Ducks over the past few days, but with good reason. This is a team that could easily win this game outright.
15* on Cincinnati Bengals -3
15* on Cleveland Browns +2.5
15* on Oakland Raiders +3
15* on LA Dodgers -1.5 +101
Take the Dodgers on the run line tonight with Arizona starter Billy Buckner struggling as much as any pitcher in the Majors right now. Over his last three starts, Buckner is 0-3 with a 12.79 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. Offensively the Dodgers already have a huge edge, so when you throw in a struggling starter for Arizona you get a solid run line play for Thursday night in LA.
Power Play Wins
Oregon +3
Indian Cowboy
6 Unit Play. Take NC State -5 over South Carolina
NC State was a team that came a long way at the end of last year. This team started off the season rough by getting spanked to South Carolina 0-34 on August 28th of last year. It was their first game of the season and undoubtedly this team still has sour memories of that contest. NC State has come a long way since the beginning of last season including going 9-1 ATS over their last 10 ten games. Heck, this team took Rutgers to the limit when Rutgers was finishing the season strong and lost 23-29. This team led that game 17-6 at the break before Rutgers had to make a huge comeback just to win the contest. O'Brien has done a great job of coaching this team and I believe this team will pick up right where they left off. O'Brien can coach a little league team to victory as his coaching style is solid and his players have bought into. This team went into UNC last year and won 41-10 covering outright as 11 point underdogs. This team lost to Maryland by just a field goal on the road and once again, closed the year defeating Miami 38-28, UNC 41-10, Wake Forrest 21-17 and Duke 27-17 on the road. With South Carolina still having uncertainties at quarterback, I like NC State to make a quick statement on national television right out of the gates here. Revenge can be sweet especially for a team that was not in sync at the beginning of last year, but came into sync at the end of last year.
1 Unit Play. Baltimore vs. Atlanta Over 38
If you saw Chris Redman close out last week’s game, you would have thought this team had won the Super Bowl as they defeated San Diego 27-24. With a nice mix of young and veteran receivers, the Falcons are doing very well as it relates to the flow of their offense scoring 26 points against Detroit, 20 on the road at St. Louis and most recently 24 points against San Diego. I expect Baltimore to continue their winning ways this preseason as they are 3-0 currently and for them to be an active dog likely sending this game over the posted total. I expect this game to have a regular season type atmosphere similar to the San Diego game which went over near the end of the contest.
1 Unit Play. Oakland vs. Seattle Over 36
Oakland has suprisingly put up some points this offseason. This team put up 31 points against the Cowboys at home, 20 points against San Fran losing by 1 point and come off getting spanked at the hands of the Saints 7-45 at home. I suspect this team will have some pride despite this game being a preseason contest as this team looks to head into the regular season on a positive note. Mora's team has done well early on as he has complete control of the reins this year. This team has won all of its preseason games and certainly with two experienced quarterbacks at his disposal the offense has a nice sync to it. I expect Seattle to put up some points on the porous defense of Oakland and Oakland to keep relative pace as this game likely goes over 40 points.
1 Unit Play. Take Houston Texans +3 against the Tampa Bay Bucs
I cannot believe the Bucs are likely to start the bum known as Byron Leftwich. The guy is a has been and this team actually thinks he has talent. Good luck and good riddance. Houston is extremely well coached and usually and I expect their coaching staff to have this team ready to go as they come off back to back losses to New Orleans and Minnesota. Schaub and Orlovsky have looked this good preseason thus far and with a steady dose of Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels while Steve Slaton and Chris Brown run the ball, I believe the Texans have a likely shot at winning this game outright.
DAVE BUSK
4 Unit Pick Take Boise State (-3) over Oregon
With these lines out for week’s now we have seen some large movements with early betting and this game is one of them. This game opened as high as six in most places and here we are with Boise at a three point favorite at most spots in the market. The money has poured in on this Oregon team that was up ended vs. the Broncos at home 37-32 as a closing (10.5) point favorite. Oregon has been running their mouth who that lost was “Embarrassing” and they owe the Broncos a “ass kicking” but this Oregon team has some serious question marks having to rebuild their offensive line in front of their starting quarterback who was fifth on the depth chart to start last year. Don’t get me wrong Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Mazola has talent but this team is up against a lot tonight with a whole new outlook. Boise State returns eleven starter’s to Oregon nine and one of those starters back is quarterback Kellen Moore who was WAC freshman of the year in 2008 and shredded this Oregon defense for 386 yards and three touchdowns last year. This is the biggest game on Boise schedule and their will be a big crowd tonight, with all said I think in this spot Boise is the better and I want top thank everybody that has allowed me to take them minus (3) here.
1 Unit Pick Take Under (57.5) North Texas at Ball State
The 2008 Ball State Cardinals averaged 36.61 points a game but a lot has changed from last year to this this year. Gone is head coach Brady Hoke, gone is high profile quarterback Nate Davis in fact the Cardinals are only returning four starter’s back from last year. One of those four is standout running back MiQuale Lewis and with the Cardinals welcoming a new quarterback he will be getting a lot of carries tonight. North Texas has a lot of returning starter’s coming back from a 1-11 team in 2008 but they will also be starting a new quarterback. This should be a ugly game as far as offense goes and get us under this total.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take Oregon +3 over Boise State
Revenge is on the minds of the Ducks, looking to payback Boise State with a loss on the smurf turf. Oregon fell to the Broncos at Autzen Stadium last season, so the whole off-season Nike University has been starring at this opener with the idea of avenging that ‘L’. No longer with Ian Johnson, Boise will be a little more pass happy, and overall their offense doesn’t pose that dynamic balanced attack that it was known for the past couple of seasons. Getting the points is nice for the team that we feel is overall stronger, but the Ducks will win this one outright. The backfield of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and tailback LaGarrette Blounte will stagger Boise on the ground and put together enough for a quality road win to begin the season.