The King Maker
10* Auburn -1.5
Sam Clayton
2* MIN +6 vs NOR
Are you ready for some football? Better yet, if you're the Vikings, are you ready to watch the Saints celebrate and raise their championship banner at the same venue as last season's heartbreaking NFC Championship Game?! Yes, the game that saw Minnesota outgain their newly annointed rivals by 200+ yards, yet turn the ball over FIVE times. If those bitter memories combined with a wild, sold out Superdome cheering on the defending champs doesn't spell MOTIVATION, nothing will. So many emotions will erupt from both teams on Thursday night, a mere eight months after last season's greatest game. However, on top of motivation, I'm siding with REVENGE and HUNGER, two attributes I believe the Vikings possess much more of heading into the season opener.
In no way, shape or form am I saying that the Saints aren't going to show up. Not even in the slightest bit. What I am pressing though is that the agony of defeat has lingered in the Vikings' minds all offseason and they've been given an opportunity for revenge against the same team on the same field with more or less the same players. If you're of the mindset that this is going to be a cakewalk for New Orleans, THINK AGAIN. Not only does Minnesota get to play the HUNTER -- they're squaring off against the HUNTED. That's right, for the first time in the history of the National Football League, the Saints have the bullseye on their chest. I'm anxious to see the added pressure on the shoulders of Drew Brees and Co. tonight and how it may affect them.
Matchup wise, if Minnesota makes a carbon copy of January's gameplan, they will be GOLDEN. Don't forget it was the Vikings who won the trench wars . . . who ran 27 more plays and 10 more minutes of clock . . . who were 7-of-12 on third down efficiency and drew five more penalties. Granted, three fumbles and two Brett Favre interceptions (along with a costly 12 men on the field penalty) changed EVERYTHING in that ballgame, yet the Vikes still only lost by a field goal. So now you're telling me I can grab six points with the team that for all intents and purposes DOMINATED the last meeting AND there's a REVENGE ANGLE? Shiiiit. It must be Christmas.
As far as No. 4 is concerned, I learned my lesson a looong time ago going against Favre. He continuously took my money and Chicago pride seemingly every time he took the field against my Bears. You see, that's the kicker with this spread. If Brett Favre is under center, not only will the game be competitive, but there's always a great possibility of an outright win. And for all the talk about New Orleans' high powered offense, it was Favre and Co. that totaled 475 yards in the last meeting. Subtract Saints' safety Darren Sharper (OUT) and combine that with a banged up Jonathan Vilma and Tracy Porter and it seems the New Orleans 'D' might be more the more vulnerable one Thursday night. Back to the well-rested Favre real quick, the man has historically been EXCELLENT in season openers, especially the past three years. Makes you wonder if he's gotten better/smarter with age:
* 2009: 34-20 (W)
* 2008: 20-14 (W)
* 2007: 16-13 (W)
* 2006: 26-0 (L)
* 2005: 17-3 (L)
* 2004: 24-14 (W)
* 2003: 30-25 (L)
* 2002: 37-34 (W)
* 2001: 28-6 (W)
Looking at the line, this is such an EASY scenario for the betting public to see the high-octane, defending champion Saints laying 5 to 6 points at home and think, "coooome on, Saints'll win by a touchdown no problem." In fact, I'm seeing about 75 percent of the 42,000+ bets on New Orleans and I think it's safe to say the sharp action -- and late money -- will be all over the Vikes. Given the fact that this baby is below 7 points and I've got the key numbers of 3, 4 and 6 (w/ Bodog) covered, I'm happier than a pig in a garbage dump. Also, you have to believe that the total dropping three points should correlate with Minnesota.
Re-match games are always more difficult for the team on top, or the one waving the red cape if you're a rodeo fan. Let's not forget, the Vikings are still a very DANGEROUS team with a HOF quarterback under center, great playmakers (A. Peterson, Harvin, Shiancoe) and one of the league's stingiest defensive units. Add in the revenge factor and motivational angle AND you get six points?! I'm sold.
Teddy Covers
Saints
KIKI SPORTS
3 Units Minny/NO Over 48.5
1 Unit Minnesota +5.5
The DOME will be rocking, the Saints will be ready, and the points will be put up in bunches, but when all is said and done, old man Favre, and AP will move the ball and keep this one close in a good old fashioned barn burner.. A great opening night game for the country to watch..
NO 34 MINNY 31
1 Unit Auburn -2
Sixth Sense
Opinion
NEW ORLEANS -5 Minnesota 48.5
Not a lot of changes for the Vikings when compared to the 2009 version that won the NFC North and lost in the NFC Championship game to these same Saints. Minnesota lost RB Chester Taylor to the Bears. They also haven’t added much but did add CB Chris Cook in the draft to shore up their secondary along with signing CB Lito Sheppard. But Cook hurt himself in preseason and will miss at least this game and maybe more time. CB Cedric Griffin is also recovering from a knee injury suffered in last years Championship game and is likely to miss this game as well. That doesn’t leave a lot of depth in the secondary against a team that can spread you out with all of their receiving options. On offense they lose their best receiving threat in Sidney Rice, who will probably be out for at least the first half of the season. C John Sullivan also may not start to open the season and Brett Favre comes off ankle surgery and figures to be less mobile than he already was. The Vikings do get E.J. Henderson back at LB after missing the last 6+ games last year.
For the Saints, they picked up DE’s Alex Brown from the Bears and Jimmy Wilkerson from TB. Gone are LB Scott Fujita and S Darren Sharper will begin the season on the PUP list.
Minnesota averaged 6.9yps last year against teams allowing just 6.3yps. They were just average running the ball, averaging 4.1ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr. Overall on offense, they gained 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. Their defense allowed just 3.9ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. But, the pass defense allowed 6.1yps against teams averaging just 5.8yps. Overall, they allowed 5.2yppl against teams averaging 5.1yppl. The Vikings offense was above average and just below average on defense due to their inability to defend the pass.
The Saints averaged 4.6ypr against teams allowing just 4.3ypr and passed for 7.9yps against teams allowing just 6.3yps. Overall, the Saints averaged 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense, NO allowed 4.5ypr against teams averaging 4.3ypr and allowed 6.2yps against teams averaging just 6.0yps. Overall, they allowed 5.5yppl against teams averaging just 5.2yppl. Clearly, they were outstanding on offense and slightly below average on defense. Part of the issue for the Saints on defense last year was their starters missed over 20 games due to injuries, not counting the last regular season game where they sat starters.
It will be very hard for Minnesota to stay in this game, IMO. The Vikings dominated the game last year here but lost because of five turnovers. NO held Minnesota to an average game on offense but it was the Vikings defense that really stymied the Saints offense, holding them to just 4.8yppl. While the yardage numbers greatly favored Minnesota, it was really a factor of them controlling the clock and having the ball for about 27 more plays. Minnesota, for all of their dominance last year, had only one sack on Drew Brees. They certainly disrupted him but they couldn’t sack him. Without much help in the secondary, it will be up to the Vikings front four to win this game and I don’t see that happening with short drops from Brees. For Minnesota, again, they were about what was to be expected on offense last year but that was with Sidney Rice healthy. While Rice only accounted for four catches, he is one less worry for the Saints defense. Favre has looked rusty so far and with his ankle still trying to recover, I don’t see him moving around much in the pocket. Any kind of pass rush from the Saints will cause problems.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Numbers, using last years stats, predict a Saints win by six and a total of 54 points. Minnesota will probably want to control the clock again by running the ball, which could lead to a lower scoring game. The Saints, will no doubt, want to jump ahead and then apply pressure to Favre, who is a sitting duck back there if they can get to him. That’s easier said than done, of course.
Minnesota played four road games last year against good passing teams and allowed 27, 26, 30 and 31 points. The Saints played five home games against good passing teams and allowed 27, 17, 24, 14 and 28 points. That’s an average o 28f about points allowed by Minnesota and an average of about 22 allowed by the Saints. The Vikings averaged about 28 points on the road against similar type defenses like the Saints. NO averaged about 30 points at home against similar type defenses of the Vikings. Add those numbers up and you get about 29-25 in favor of NO.
I’ll lean the way of the Saints in this game and really feel they could make this much worse on the Vikings but I’ll respect what the Vikings did to the Saints last year enough to stay off this game as a Best Bet. NEW ORLEANS 30 MINNESOTA 24
BIG AL
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over the New Orleans Saints. In one of the all-time great playoff games, the Saints outlasted Minnesota last January, and won 31-28 on a Garrett Hartley field goal on the opening possession of the overtime session. That dramatic win was set up by a careless Brett Favre turnover in the game's waning seconds. Here, I look for Minnesota to avenge that defeat with an upset win. The Saints went on to defeat the Colts in the Super Bowl, and finished with a 16-3 record on the season. And that is key, as NFL teams off 16-win seasons generally stumble out of the game, as they've covered just 22.7% of the time in Game 1 the following season since 1980. Super Bowl champs are also over-valued the following season, as evidenced by their poor ATS record (192-223-11 ATS), including an awful 22-41 ATS in the first four games of the season when matched up against a foe that's not off a SU loss! Moreover, the Saints have always been an unreliable home favorite of -2 points or more, including a dreadful 25-59 ATS when their opponent is not off a SU/ATS win! Take the Vikings
Paul Leiner
50* Mississippi State +1.5
25* Giants +100
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Colorado (-125) over Cincinnati
Colorado has won 16 of the last 17 home games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have also won 16 of the last 19 games vs. Cincinnati . Jason Hammel has won 14 of the last 16 games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he is 7-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 3.43.
50* Play Atlanta (+105) over St. Louis
Atlanta has won 13 of the last 16 home games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and they have also won 9 of the last 11 home games when the total posted is 7 runs or less. Jair Jurrjens has won 17 of the last 28 games as an underdog of +100 to +150 and he is 6-0 in home games this season with an ERA of 2.15.
Power Play Wins
Saints -5
Auburn -1.5
LA Dodgers
Anton Wins
2 Units Minnesota +5.5
Chip Chirimbes
Vikings at Saints
Pick: Vikings +6
A rematch of last years' NFC Championship game won by the Saints of course 31-28 while laying 4 1/2 points. Thursday night same number and same cast of characters. Minnesota of course has Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson and New Orleans has Drew Brees and a Super Bowl ring. The Vikings are 6-2 in their last eight openers and I believe that they get the money here...always tough to repeat.
SEABASS
50* Cincinnati Reds
50* LA Dodgers Under
50* SF Giants
BEN BURNS
10* CINCINNATI -1.5
MATT FARGO
10* Minnesota Vikings
Teddy Covers
White Sox/ Tigers Under