Drew Gordon
200,000♦ Brigham Young
50,000♦ Ohio
1. Brigham Young- The old PAC-10 over Mountain West argument - sorry guys, but you need to take A LOT more into account when 'capping Bowl games. In this case, the one factor that stands out above all the rest is motivation. Is Oregon State going to bring their "A" game tonight, that is the question you should be asking yourself... And the answer is a definative NO. Coach Riley admitted his team was dealing with disappointment, and I don't care who you are, but when you're busy thinking about the "what if," you're not thinking about the "right now," as in playing a VERY motivated BYU squad.
Speaking of BYU, not only do they enjoy an edge at QB with stud Max Hall, but defensively I believe they are a superior team. I know people will argue about the speed of the PAC-10 vs the slower/stronger Mountain West, but to be honest, we're you really that impressed by the PAC-10 this year? Make no mistake, the Cougars offense can play with anyone, especially a Beaver stop-unit allowing a generous 23.5 ppg on the road this season!
One other key factor to consider when 'capping Bowl games is perception. In other words, ask yourself, what does Vegas want the average bettor (aka the average sucker) to do? And the answer to that question is clear: They want bettors to play the Beavers as a short favorite against a supposedly weaker Mountain West team. Setting the line where its at is a perfect trap for those of you out there who swear the Cougars can't possiby cover the Rodgers brothers. Again, Oregon State backers are in for a major disappointment.
Bottom line, considering several factors, including motivation and perception, the play here rests squarely on the Cougars. BYU has been here before, they are not only happy to be in Las Vegas, but actually relish the idea. The crowd will be very much pro-Cougars, and with Oregon State still thinking about the Rose Bowl, I say the Beavers deliver a lackluster performance here, costing their backers in the process.
Take Brigham Young plus the points over Oregon State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Ohio- We're gonna keep this one short and simple, as the betting public is making the mistake of seriously underestimating this Bobcats squad in this spot. Clearly, the Panthers are the better overall team, with superior size, but laying double digits in this match up is simply too much to ask. Read on...
Although there's no doubt anyone would take the Panthers frontline over the Bobcats, fact is both van Kempen and Washingon are playing extremely well of late. They've helped lead this Ohio team to 3 straight wins and 4 covers in their last 5 games! The one issue is foul trouble, with Ohio bench has a couple extra big bodies to throw in their in case of the worst case scenario (6'8 forwards Keely and Baltic).
The backcourt is an interesting match up, because unlike the frontline, Ohio's guard duo of Cooper and Bassett is extremely talented and just as good as the Panthers. Gibbs and Wannamker may get more public love, but if you haven't seen the Bobcats play this season, you'll see just how comparable these backcourts are tonight. As is the case with college basketball, the game is won and lost because of backcourt play, and in this match up, its closer than it appears.
Finally, Pittsburgh-backers have been getting massacred of late overall (and especially at home). Note, Pitt is just 3-10-1 ATS over their L14 games overall AND an equally bad 2-8-1 ATS in their L11 at home. Look guys, in the end, underestimate this Ohio team at your own loss, as Bassett and Cooper carry this team straight to the bank Tuesday night on the road.
Take Ohio plus the points over Pittsburgh in this college hoops match up.
Alex Smart
4 Units BYU +3
Tonight’s game will mark the 5th straight time the Cougars invade Sin City looking to pick up a bowl win. They lost a tough one to an Arizona squad 31-21 as 3-point pups a year ago. FYI: underdogs in the same bowl who lost the previous year are a bankroll bursting 29-19 ATS. BYU has held its own in this bowl series going 2-2 SU & ATS the L/4 years with wins against UCLA & Oregon. With the BYU program used to the bright lights and big city of Las Vegas after paying it a visit each of the L/4 years, distractions will be at a minimum.
I really just don’t see Oregon State being able to see this one through the whole way. If they do, which isn’t entirely out of the question, a tip of the cap will be in order for HC mike Riley who will have done a fabulous coaching job to get his kids up for this. Last we saw the Beavers, they just missed out on a chance to go to the Rose Bowl losing 37-33 as 9.5-point underdogs to Oregon in the Civil War. When teams come so close to going to a major bowl, but just miss out, you usually see a hangover effect occur. Rewind to last season where a proud Alabama team lost the 4th quarter of the SEC Championship Game to Florida and missed out on playing in the BCS championship Game because of it. They then went on to play in the Sugar Bowl against Utah and got trounced 31-17 as 9-point favorites. Lack of interest might be just the ingredient that gets some of these Beavers in trouble in the adult Disneyland otherwise known as Las Vegas.
BYU has defeated 4 of the L/6 Pac10 opponents it’s faced outright. They’ve also been a lucrative investment against P10 foes going 9-4-1 ATS the L/14 times they were installed dogs or chalks of 4-points or less. Oddsmakers expected them to be the victor in this one as they opened the Cougars up as 1.5-point choices before JQB got their hands on the line. I believe they were right, and firmly expect BYU to snap the Beavers bowl winning streak at five in a row.
Smart $$$ Sin City Bowl 4* Side Call: BYU Cougars
Jimmy Boyd
3* SMASH Michigan State +9
The Spartans have had Texas' number, picking up wins against the Horns each of the last 3 seasons. While Texas could finally have its revenge tonight, I can't see this one not being extremely close with the level of experience that Michigan State has and with as well as the Spartans defense. Let's just say that the Spartans have owned the Big 12 Conference over the last few seasons, racking up a 6-0 ATS mark while winning by an average score of 77.8 to 70.2. Michigan State has been chomping at the bit for another opportunity to show the country that it is better than it showed when it lost at UNC. Expect the Spartans to do just that tonight.
Wunderdog
Marshall @ North Carolina
5 Units Under 158.5
The Tar Heels left everything on the floor last time out vs. Texas, so it is hard to see them motivated here in a game they should be able to name the score in. Three of their last four games have been vs. heavyweights, so they will mail this one in and head home for the X-Mas break with a lackluster effort. The Thundering Herd has played UNDER in five of their last six as a dog, including four straight on the road. The Heels have shown a penchant for lesser efforts producing six straight UNDERs after hanging 90+ points in their previous game. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.
Dave Malinsky
4* OKLAHOMA CITY over L.A. LAKERS
It is not often that the weaker team can go out and attack the superior opponent aggressively and be successful. But that is what we have here, as the young and fresh legs of the Thunder have a chance to take this one right to the final possessions. Oklahoma City does not just bring young talent there is also a sense of purpose. With a strong chemistry and work ethic the Thunder are not easy to run out of a game, with a 15-5 ATS mark their last 20 games when taking +8.5 or more on the road. And with two full days to prepare for this double revenge affair, with the confidence of knowing that one of the earlier defeats went to O.T. and was in their hands to win outright, we get their A game. That is not the case with the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a fragile setting for even this class of team. The Lakers are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and have almost no down time from that Eastern swing. Kobe Bryant is most aware of the difficulties it brings - "That first game back is always the toughest, probably because of all the travel and your body still getting acclimated to the time zone. You're trying to get back into a routine, and get a handle on all the stuff that goes on when you're home. That, of course, is magnified even more when Christmas is two days away, especially with that nationally-televised showdown vs. the Cavaliers creating an additional look-ahead on that very day. And Phil Jackson recognizes what the tough schedule grind can also mean in teams of performance - "I thought things sort of eroded a bit for us in certain areas (on the road trip), and that happens when you don't have the practice time and you don't put the proper amount of time in to get your timing and rhythm down." The Lakers are only interested in getting a W here and moving on, with a margin of no interest. Not that they could get it anyway. This one is close to the final buzzer.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Vancouver -150
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home side:
Nashville has been playing great lately, but will be in tough today against a "revenge minded" Canucks team.
Roberto Luongo has a 3.54 goals-against average in losing his last two starts against Nashville.
Nashville may be 6-1 its last seven overall, but its just 2-6 its last eight vs. Vancouver and is a horrible 4-11-1 its last 16 at GM Place.
On the other side of the rink: After posting their biggest victory of the season on Friday by shutting down Washington superstar Alexander Ovechkin and rallying from a first-period deficit, the Canucks played a poor second period en route to a 3-1 loss to St. Louis Sunday, a team that was at the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Vancouver had a chance to move up into a playoff position for the first time all season, but once again failed to walk the talk; expect a "bounce-back" this evening.
Vancouver is 4-2 its last six and always plays tough in front of the hometown crowd; 14-5 its last 19 at home.
Bottom line: The Canucks will look to end their extended home stretch with a concerted effort; look for VANCOUVER to move to 7-4 (+1.7 units) after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game this season and for Nashville to fall to 2-2 when playing with two days of rest.
7* VANCOUVER.
Tony George
Oregon State -2.5
Short and Sweet. Oregon State was a game away from a BCS Bowl game and a PAC 10 championship and lost to rival Oregon. While both QBs will provide some fireworks here, I like a more motivated team in this one. While many say OSU comes in here with their head down, I am not buying that from Mike Riley’s team. They have a stud QB, they rarely turn the ball over, can score 35 ppg with ease and BYU lost to 1 good team they played TCU who blew them out and also another BCS school Florida State who sucks blew them out in Provo. Paper tiger, OSU a solid team who beat Cal and Stanford and is battle tested. Overall team depth and speed favor OSU. A good game, but I go against the popular choice in BYU here and play the better team laying less than a FG.
Play 1 Unit on Oregon State
Evan Altemus
Philadelphia +2
Allen Iverson was a horrible addition to the 76ers, as they were a much better team without him. He was only brought in to sell tickets, and they are playing much better in the two games without him in the line-up. Philadelphia should be able to play well tonight, as Iverson is expected to miss this game as well. The main reason for this selection is the absolutely horrible spot for Washington. They are coming off of a very tiring road trip, and now they have to play one home game before going back out onto the road. In addition, the Wizards are banged up, which makes this spot even worse. Finally, it is very close to Christmas, so the players are probably more focused on taking care of other teams than playing a game against lowly Philadelphia. Washington hasn’t played well at home either this season. Sharp bettors are absolutely hammering this season, so make sure to shop around and get the best line available. I feel that it is still a top play up as long as the 76ers don’t become a favorite.
4 UNIT SELECTION 76ERS
Ron Raymond
BYU / Oregon State Under 58
When ANY NCAAF Team played as Road team as a Underdog - After a conference game - Last 2 years - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off 1 under - Coming off a game scored 24 points or more; the UNDER is 13-6-0 for the Road Dog (BYU) in this role. Take the UNDER.
Bob Balfe
Ohio U +10
Lenny Del Genio
New York -6
It's very rare that we make a play on the Knicks. However, it's even rarer to find an NBA team that blew a 35 POINT LEAD the previous night. Last week, we asked "when Vinny Del Negro was going to be fired?" The answer now appears to be "very soon" after his Bulls pulled a gag job of epic proportions last night vs. the Kings. It was the biggest lead surrendered by any NBA team since a November '96 loss by Denver when they led the Jazz by 36 at halftime. Chicago was outscored 33-10 in the fourth quarter by Sacramento and turned the ball over seven times. They are playing with a seven-man rotation. This is a terrible road team, losing 10 of 12 overall away from the United Center. They have lost seven straight road games with five of them coming by 14 points or greater. After starting the season 1-9, New York has won 9 of its last 17, beating many opponents better than this, and they've held seven straight opponents to 100 points or less. Chicago has not scored more than 101 points all season, doing it only three times this year. New York is our 20* NBA Situational Game of the Month.
Seabass
50* BYU
Brett Atkins
10 Dime College Bowl Book Buster - OREGON STATE
Better conference, better players, high-powered offense and a history of delivering in the postseason. This play is definitely Oregon State tonight. QB Sean Canfield and RB Jacquizz Rodgers have crazy ability and have the Beavers averaging 32.4 points a game and 419.3 yards per contest. They have won five straight bowl games and they're 4-1 ATS. Last year they shut out Pitt and this year they're going to blow out the Cougars. Play the Beavers.
Charley Sutton
150 Unit Oregon State
50 Unit BYU-Oregon State Over
BYU vs. Oregon State
OREGON STATE - After starting the season 0-3 ATS, Oregon State finished strong, going 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU. Now the Beavers face a BYU team that’s gone just 2-4 ATS its last 6 games. Consider, too, Oregon State beat its opponents by about 31 points per game on the road this season (45.4-14.2). The Beavers, who are installed as about a 2 1/2 point favorite, will do it again and cruise to an easy victory tonight.
BYU-Oregon State Total
OVER - The Total for this game is hovering around 58 1/2 points and BYU and Oregon State will go well Over that number in tonight’s Las Vegas Bowl. Coming into this game BYU has gone Over the Total in 7 of its last 11 games, including 4 of its 5 games on the road. The Beavers have gone Over the Total in 2 of their last 3 games and have seen it go 4-3 their last 7 games. Scoring will come in bunches tonight as these two go well Over the Total.
Chuck O'Brien
15 DIME: BYU
NOTE: If the best you can get is +2 1/2 with BYU, buy the half-point and grab +3, which is such a critical number in football, obviously.
10 DIME: THUNDER (plus the points vs. Lakers)
BYU
BREAKDOWN: I can’t see Oregon State being all that excited to be playing in this game. Less than three weeks ago, the Beavers were one quarter away from beating hated rival Oregon, winning the Pac-10 championship and getting a bid to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1964. But Oregon State failed to hold a 30-21 lead on the road and their Rose Bowl dreams went down the toilet. No disrespect to the Las Vegas Bowl folks, but going from the Rose Bowl to the Las Vegas Bowl is a pretty huge come-down. … At the same time, BYU is making its fourth appearance in the Vegas Bowl, and while you think that would have the Cougars bummed, the fact is that Vegas is a home-away-from-home for BYU because of the large Mormon contingent in Sin City. Also, BYU is eager to redeem itself after last year’s Las Vegas Bowl showing (a 31-21 loss to Arizona). … The Cougars are 10-2 on the season (and one of the losses came to undefeated TCU), including 6-0 away from home (and that’s counting a 14-13 upset loss of Oklahoma in Dallas). They have a strong, balanced offense led by a four-year senior quarterback and a sneaky-good defense (only three teams scored more than 23 points against BYU), and they come into this game having won four in a row by the combined score 140-63. … Finally, one of BYU’s road wins came at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas in mid-October – a 59-21 rout of UNLV as a 16 ½-point favorite (and the Cougars outgained UNLV by 274 yards). Oregon State also played at UNLV this year, but it barely pulled out a last-second 23-21 win as a 6½-point favorite (and only outgained the Rebels by 72 yards.
Thunder
BREAKDOWN: There’s no arguing that the Lakers (22-4) are the best team in the NBA and the odds-on favorite to win another championship. But when it comes to covering pointspreads, L.A. is below average (12-14 ATS overall; 9-8 ATS at home). As for the Thunder, they’re a .500 basketball team, but they’re 15-11 ATS, including 7-5 ATS on the road and 7-3 ATS as an underdog of five points or more. But here’s the most impressive pointspread trend with respect to Oklahoma City, which is coming off Saturday’s 95-90 loss at Houston, barely coming up short as a 3½-point underdog: The Thunder haven’t gone two straight games without covering a pointspread all season long! We’re 26 games into the season and Oklahoma City has not so much as had an 0-2 ATS slump. In fact, it is 10-0 ATS when coming off a non-cover! … The Thunder are also 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games when coming off a SU loss and 4-0 AT Sin their last four after two days of rest. They’re also 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games against the Lakers. On top of that, Kevin Durant and the young Thunder took the Lakers to overtime back on Nov. 3, losing 101-98 as a seven-point underdog. … L.A., which is coming off a tough five-game, eight-day road trip, cashed in its last two games at New Jersey and Detroit (two horrible teams). However, it has not had a 3-0 ATS run in 13 games (and only twice this year have the Lakers cashed in three straight contests).