Freddy Willis
*4.5 Dime NCAAF POD: Oregon State -2.5
My initial thought on the game was PAC-10 over MWC, but it's never that easy as BYU has played well in this bowl game. After looking at the match up further it was confirmed that I will be going with Oregon State here. There is just too much talent on the field for Oregon State with the Rodgers brothers and lefty QB Sean Canfield may surprise some as being the better QB on the field as he has completed more than 70% of his passes which is quite impressive. James Rodgers will take back kicks and punts and give Oregon State great field position all day long. I really like what I saw from Oregon State in the Civil War game. I was on Oregon in that game but the Beavers played a great game and I'm not worried about a let down. Ya this team lost that game and won't go to the Rose Bowl, but this is an opportunity to be recognized next year as a Top 25 team in the pre season polls as they will return 18 of their 22 starters. Oregon State also has a considerable advantage in the field goal game as Justin Kahut is 22 of 27 and 15 of 16 from inside 47 yards while Mitch Payne does not kick many and is just 9 for 13 on the year. Oregon State takes a 5 game winning streak in bowl games into this game and under Mike Riley they are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS. Oregon State is more battle tested and although they will have periods of struggle in their pass defense they will rebound with the balanced offense that BYU won't be able to stop.
BYU's QB Max Hall is one of the better QB's to come through the University. However, in his three year starting career he has just 13 games where he did not throw an interception. He often forces the ball and tries to make too much happen. Sometimes that is a good thing and it's worked well for him against inferior defenses and opponents. However, against a PAC-10 talent like Oregon State that played significantly better down the stretch against the pass, I don't see him having one of those games. Yes, he'll have time as Oregon State had just 15 sacks in the regular season, but in the end BYU won't get the stops on defense. Against the two strong opponents this year Florida State and TCU they lost by a combined score of 92-35. While I'm not calling for a blow out I really can see Oregon State putting up 40 points on this defense. They are very similar to Florida States offensive ranks that featured a strong passing game and mid running game. Florida State put up 54 points on BYU and they are significantly worse defensively than Oregon State. Overall BYU has had a weaker schedule and has played 5 defenses that ranked outside the Top 100 of 120 in FBS total defense ranks. Oregon State on the other hand faced only two. I just do not believe BYU will have the answers on defense or special teams to stop Oregon State. In the end if you watch this game you will remember Quizz Rodgers and James Rodgers as potential Heisman Trophy candidates next year and Sean Canfield as an under rated Sr. who can play at the next level if given a chance.
Finally BYU 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, and Oregon State 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MWC. Why this line may look to good to be true? Well BYU had periods of good play against Oklahoma and they did crush UNLV while Oregon State just got by 23-21. Well Oklahoma seems like years ago and that was when Sam Bradford was injured. Bottom line the weakness of Oregon State is the pass defense, but they have improved throughout the season and I believe Mike Riley will have his team ready in this one.
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaire - BYU
Should be
Billionaire - BYU (Bowl Play)
Vegas Legend - Texas
Millionaire - Texas Tech
Freddy Willis
Take UAB -1 4-Dime NCAAB POD
I really like UAB here. Butler is off two really close wins and now they have to travel down to Birmingham to get another one and I don't think they have it in them against a UAB team that continues to fly under the radar despite huge wins at home against Georgia by 16 and a good Cincinnati team out of the Big East. They have gotten it done with defense something that lacked last year in this match up where they led by 11 at half time @ Butler and Butler started to hit threes and outscored UAB 45-30 in the 2nd half for a 4 point win. Butler shot 50% from the perimeter, but with some new faces UAB is playing some solid basketball and are giving up 28.6% from three this year. At home they are even better defending 24.6% from three at home. I mentioned they had two big wins at home to Cincinnati and Georgia. While they are not ranked as high in the RPI's as Butler they are still pretty close. UAB has played much better defense than a year ago and it's probably because of the new faces. I believe Gordan Hayword who has been carrying this Butler team and giving them some balance gets shut down here like he did a year ago when he had just 8 points. Look for Elijah Milsap from UAB to have a big game and possibly his 4th straight double double. Last year UAB was also rebounded and Milsap has been doing a great job crashing the boards with 15 rebound in each of his last 3 games. Add in that and the fact that UAB is getting to the FT line more than its opponents something they did not do in this game last year I believe we have UAB as a strong play.
A Redd
40 Dime BYU
Northcoast
3* BYU
GOLDESHEET
1* Ore St
ROCKETMAN
Michigan State @ Texas
Play: 3* Michigan State +8.5
Michigan State is 6-0 SU and ATS vs Big 12 opponents the past 3 years. Michigan State is scoring 82.5 points per game overall and 82.7 points per game on the road this year. Spartans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big 12. Spartans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss. Spartans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Spartans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. We'll play Michigan State for 3 units tonight!
Marshall @ North Carolina
Play: 3* North Carolina -14
North Carolina is 31-13 ATS last 3 years against non-conference opponents. North Carolina is 73-45 ATS since 1997 and 18-7 ATS last 3 years against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less. North Carolina is scoring 90 points per game at home this year. Thundering Herd are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Thundering Herd are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Tar Heels are 27-6-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a SU loss. Tar Heels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Tar Heels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Tar Heels are 42-15 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games. Tar Heels are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Tar Heels are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. We'll play North Carolina for 3 units tonight!
St Peter's @ Rutgers
Play: 3* Rutgers -11.5
Rutgers beat St Peter's by 21 points in last years match up. Rutgers is currently a very nice 7-1 SU at home this year and are 5-0 SU their last 5 games overall. Rutgers is allowing only 64.1 points per game overall and 61.6 points per game at home this season. We'll play Rutgers for 3 units tonight!
Missouri State @ Arkansas
Play: 4* Arkansas Pick
Missouri State is 11-24 ATS since 1997 and 9-22 ATS last 3 years as an underdog. Arkansas is scoring 84.6 points per game at home this year. Bears are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bears are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 road games. Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Southeastern. Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Cleveland State @ Ohio State
Play: 4* Cleveland State +15
Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or greater. Vikings are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll play Cleveland State for 4 units tonight!
UC Davis @ Air Force
Play: 4* UC Davis +2
Air Force is 1-7 ATS last 3 years in a home game when the total is between 120 and 129 1/2. Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Aggies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Aggies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Aggies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Falcons are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU loss. Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. Falcons are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Falcons are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Falcons are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games. We'll play UC Davis for 4 units tonight!
LSU @ Washington State
Play: 3* LSU +5.5
LSU comes in with an 8-2 overall record on the season while Washington State is sitting at 9-2 this year. LSU is allowing only 62 points per game overall this year. Cougars are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. LSU is 5-0 SU their last 5 games overall while Washington State is 3-2 SU their last 5 games overall. We'll play LSU for 3 units tonight!
Colorado State @ UCLA
Play: 3* UCLA -9
UCLA is 15-5 ATS since 1997 at home when the total is between 130 and 134 1/2. Rams are 19-41 ATS in their last 60 games following a ATS loss. Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Rams are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Bruins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Bruins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll play UCLA for 3 units tonight!
Texas A&M @ Washington
Play: 3* Washington -7
Washington is scoring 84.3 points per game overall and 85.9 points per game at home this season. Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. Huskies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. I'm expecting the Huskies to roll in this one tonight. We'll play Washington for 3 units tonight!
The Duke's Sports
BYU (+3) for 1.5 Units
At first glance, Oregon State would be the likely call for example, they've covered 6 of 7 bowl games, 5-2 ATS vs the MWC, and do have the two best athletes (Rodgers brothers) on the field. However, after a closer look, we think this line has been artificially driven up and the higher ranked Cougars are being sold short. Max Hall has been outstanding running the high powered BYU offense and should exploit a very thin Beavers' secondary, which got thinner after Tim Clark went down with a broken ankle in the final game of the season at Oregon. The Beavers surrendered a generous 20 TD passes during the regular season; part of the reason was on account of their inability to pressure WBs (only 15 sacks - 2nd lowest in the conference). BYU has been competitive vs the PAC 10 under Mendenhall (5-4 SU/ATS) and we'll take the points
Executive
250 BYU Football
250 Stanford
250 Butler
300 GW
Great Lakes Sports
4* B Y U
4* Kansas
3* Wash St
3* UNLV
4* Wash
3* Bos
3* Hou
Al Demarco
5 Dime Oregon St.
SPORTS UNLIMITED
4* BYU
SPORTS BANK
400* BYU OVER
RAS
Weber St Un 141
S Miss Ov 133.5
SMU Under 138