The Duke's Sports
Memphis (+6') for 2 Units
The dog in this series is 20-8 ATS and we won't stop barking here. Memphis, which is on a five game skid - all on the road, should get it together in their comfortable confines tonight. We'll look for the emerging talent of Gay, Mayo, Conley to be more at ease here, and former Blazer Zach Randolph is eager to show Portland that they made a mistake trading him. The Grizzlies have covered 6 of their last 7 home games and should get it done here.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Ohio (+1) over Buffalo
Ohio has won four of the last five games and they have also won 4 consecutive games coming off three or more UNDER the totals. Ohio has won 3 consecutive games coming off a road win and they are only allowing 14 points a game on defense over the last three games.
100* Play Miami (-6.5) over Washington
Washington has lost 15 of the last 18 games against the spread vs. division opponents and they have also lost 13 of the last 17 games against the spread when playing in the month of November. Washington has lost 12 of the last 14 road games against the spread when the total posted is between 185 and 189.5 points.
50* Play Denver (-2) over Chicago
Chicago has lost four of the last five games against the spread and they have also lost 10 of the last 13 games coming off a win by 3 points or less.
Ron Raymond
5* Denver and Chicago Over 205
Craig Davis
25 Dime - THUNDER
10 Dime - Nuggets-Bulls OVER
5 Dime - BUFFALO
THUNDER --- To me, this one is pretty simple. Vegas still doesn't quite believe in this OKC Thunder basketball team, so we're going to get line value every time they play until the odds makers start realizing this team is a LOT better than they were last year... by leaps and bounds. HC Scott Brooks has preached defensive intensity to this team in the off-season, and that alone is the biggest difference you'll see from last year's version of the Thunder and this year's version. We knew last year OKC could score with just about anybody in the NBA, but they also had no business ever being a favorite because they couldn't stop anyone. Keep in mind, though, that Brooks didn't start the year as the head coach and was behind the 8-ball from the beginning. Brooks was hired when PJ Carlisemo got canned and really never had a chance to instill his defensive mind-set into this team.
Things have changed in OKC, though, and now that he's had a full off-season to work with them, you can see they are believing in his style of coaching. Don't believe me? Just look at the numbers. Last season the Thunder allowed well over 100 PPG for the season. This year, only two opponents have surpassed the 100-point plateau against them... and one of them was the Lakers and they needed overtime to get there. In fact, the Thunder opened the season vs. the Kings a few weeks ago and held them to 89 points for the game... and this is a Kings team that has scored over 100 points in each of their last four games.
Also keep in mind, Sacramento will be without their leading scorer, G Kevin Margin who is sidelined with a wrist injury. Martin was a huge factor in that game, scoring 27 points and dishing out 4 assists and I'm not sure they have anyone else on their bench that's capable of posting those type of numbers vs. this defensive-minded OKC Thunder bunch. We're also getting really good line value tonight because the game is on the road, otherwise we'd be asked to lay 7 or more points again... obviously I feel more comfortable laying one or two tonight. The road team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two, and with them having already played once this season, I gotta take my chances with OKC to "steal" a road win from an overmatched Sacramento team tonight.
DENVER/CHICAGO OVER --- You want points? Watch tonight's Denver/Chicago matchup in the windy city. Denver started the season as one of the hottest teams in the NBA but have dropped two straight road games and will be without shot-blocker Kenyon Martin tonight.Denver's offense has kinda been "on hold" during these last two losses, but you can bet George Karl is going to open the flood gates for his Nuggets tonight as they realize the importance of this road win tonight. Denver comes in averaging 109 PPG on the season, but have been limited to just 100 and 88 in their last two road games. I can promise you this.... when you hold this offense to less than 100 points, they take it personally. They don't believe any team in the NBA should be able to keep their offense quiet, and with a few days rest, you can bet they're going to come out with guns-a-blazin' tonight. Yes, I realize Chicago is only scoring about 90 PPG thus far, but they also haven't faced a defense that's giving up 104 PPG on average either. Chicago has more than enough offensive talent to score points with anyone (Deng, Rose, Noah, Salmons), and defense simply won't be an option tonight. If you like offense, you need to plop down in front of your flat-screen tonight and buckle up for what should be a 110-106 type game. The last seven meetings between these two have gone OVER the total... and those totals were higher than tonight's number of 204. I wouldn't be surprised if this score isn't over the total by midway through the fourth quarter. I expect it to be close throughout, so that likely means a lot of free throws down the stretch... easy points for us when the clock is stopped. I'll take my chances with the OVER tonight.
BUFFALO BULLS --- Wasn't it just a week ago today, in this very same spot the Bulls were a small favorite over Bowling Green at home? Didn't the Bulls grab a 29-16 second half lead, but failed to step on the Falcons' throats and let them come all the way back?
Look, I'm not overly excited about this game because the MAC is one of the hardest conferences to figure out. Kent State and Miami Oh. were once a laughing stock but have beaten some teams they shouldn't have beaten. Western Michigan was supposed to be a very explosive offense, but they've struggled to score points at times. Toledo opened like gangbusters, but have fallen completely apart. Temple beats Navy outright at Navy, but comes back home and nearly loses to Miami, Oh. Like I said, tough conference.
But one thing I know... the home team in this series has won 8 of the last 10 meetings, and since we're dealing with such a small point spread, chances are the team that wins, covers. I'm also a guy who likes to buck the trends when it comes to the MAC. I realize it's not a very precise way to handicap a game, and normally I don't do that, but this conference is just weird. It doesn't make sense. Teams that win weren't supposed to win. Teams that lose weren't supposed to lose. And although most of the trends (and overall record) lean towards Ohio, the difference in these two teams is minimal.
Buffalo still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and they'll be getting a few of their injured players back. Both QBs have legitimate weapons to throw the ball to, but they both make plenty of mistakes and have forced a lot of interceptions. The team that limits the mistakes tonight wins... and I believe Buffalo made enough of them last week vs. Bowling Green that they might not have anymore left in them. Ohio hasn't played for two weeks and will come in a little flat. I'll side with the home team minus the very small impost.
Dominic Fazzini
20 Dime - Ohio
The Bobcats are on a roll, having won four of its last five games, in their quest to win the MAC East Division title.
Senior QB Theo Scott has been effective leading Ohio's offensive attack, completing 55 percent of his passes for 1,437 yards and 13 touchdowns, and the team is averaging 24.4 points per game.
The Bobcats, who lead the nation in takeaways with 27, have won four straight MAC road games and are 4-1 SU on the road this season, losing only at Tennessee in September.
Despite losing its last two games to the Bulls, Ohio is 7-4 SU in its last 11 vs. Buffalo. And this is Ohio's only game over a 20-day stretch, so it should be well rested and prepared for the Bulls.
The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog, while Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. Take Ohio to cover the points tonight.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Portland vs. Memphis
Play: Portland -5.5
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors:
With Iverson likely out, Memphis tries to avoid losing its sixth consecutive game when it hosts a Trail Blazers team looking to win its third straight with a new lineup.
Portland (4-3), which is opening a five-game road trip, has won two in a row since switching to a three-guard lineup featuring Brandon Roy, Andre Miller and Steve Blake. The Blazers defeated San Antonio 96-84 on Friday and beat Minnesota 116-93 on Sunday and I expect them to carry that momentum into this evenings game.
Coach Nate McMillan’s new offense looks to continue its production against a Memphis team allowing an average of 120.0 points on 51.6 % shooting during its skid.
Keep in mind that dating back to last season Portland is 12-6 ATS its last 18 and 5-2 ATS its last seven on the road.
On the other side of the court: The Grizzlies, who haven’t won since beating Toronto on Oct. 30, have lost seven straight to the Trail Blazers since a 96-92 victory March 29, 2007.
The Grizzlies are really struggling right now on the court, and will now also have to deal with Allen Iverson's "off-court" antics as he's taken an indefinite leave of absence to deal with "personal matters", and there are now rumors coming out of Memphis that he is planning to retire.
Dating back to last season Memphis is a horrible 3-6-1 ATS in its last ten games overall and is just 8-16 SU its last 24 at home.
Bottom line: No need to over-analyze this one. Look for McMillan to have his guys ready to take advantage of this team in disarray; play on PORTLAND! 9* BLAZERS.
Bob Balfe
Ohio vs. Buffalo
Play: Ohio +1.5
When rating these teams the offense get a tie, but on defense Ohio is a lot better and are a lot healthier. Every defensive back is nursing and injury on Buffalo and to make things worst the suspended their QB for the first quarter of tonight's game and they will be without their top running back for the entire game. Now I give the advantage on offense, defense and special teams to Ohio. The Bobcats are also playing for a MAC Title while Buffalo has to win out just to get bowl eligible. Ohio is a better team playing for bigger cause. Take Ohio.
Evan Altemus
Orlando vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte +3.5
This game is a great match-up and situation for Charlotte. Orlando is a pure jump shooting team with not much defense. They will struggle against good defensive teams on the road until they change their style of play. Charlotte has one of the best defenses in the league, but their offense struggles at times. However, the Bobcats are a very good home team, evident by their dominant home wins over Atlanta and New Jersey over the last week. The Magic are also banged up coming into this game and won’t have Vince Carter, Ryan Anderson, or Rashard Lewis in this game. Lewis is still serving a suspension and won’t return for a few more games.
3 UNIT SELECTION BOBCATS
Tony George
Ohio vs. Buffalo
Play: Buffalo -1.5
The W-L record is deceiving for the Bulls and Turner Gill. They are about 5 or 6 plays away from being a 2 loss ballclub, including last week’s debacle against Bowling Green. Although starting QB Maynard is suspended for the first quarter, I look for the better offense to win game, and since Ohio U is ranked `105th in the NCAA, I like Buffalo at home to get it done. Buffalo has dominated Ohio the past 2 years by double digits.
Play 1 Unit on Buffalo
Rocketman Sports
Orlando vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte +4
Charlotte has cashed five of their first six games ATS this year. Charlotte is a perfect 3-0 SU at home this year. Charlotte is allowing only 83.7 points per game at home this year. Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Bobcats are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS win. Bobcats are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games. Bobcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bobcats are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Southeast. Home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Magic are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Charlotte. We'll play Charlotte for 3 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
20* Southeast Division Total of the Month
Washington / Miami Over 188.5
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Ohio
PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS
1* Portland/Memphis UNDER 203
1* Okl City -1.5
Denver Money
2* Ottawa Senators -160
1* Toronto Maple Leafs -140
1* Minnesota/Toronto UNDER 6 -140
1* San Jose Sharks -1.5 +115
5DimeSports
Vancouver @ St. Louis
4 Dime Play Take Vancouver ML +100
After studying tonight's game, I just can't find a reason for Vancouver to be the underdog here. They lost their last game, but have bounced back the past 4 times they lost and got a win. They do have a couple players doubtful tonight and one being their starting goaltender. The thing is their backup goaltender Andrew Raycroft has been lights out this season with a 4-1 record in his starts, with a 1.61 GAA. Another thing I like is the fact that Vancouver has went over every game coming off 3+ days rest, while St. Louis has gone 0-4 under on their amount of days off. Which means to me that Vancouver will put up points, while St. Louis may strugle. And I am not just saying that, the three games Vancouver went over off 3+ days rest, they scored 3,4, and 3 goals. While St. Louis on their amount of days off have scored 1,0,5, and 1 goals. Roll with the underdog here.
Trends I Like
Canucks are 8-1 in their last 9 Tuesday games.
Canucks are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Canucks are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Canucks are 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Canucks are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Blues are 0-5 in their last 5 overall.