Matt Fargo
Southern Illinois -4
Southern Illinois headed into the season with a lot of confidence despite a down season a year ago. That confidence may have taken a hit with a 22-point loss in its opener at Illinois on Saturday. It was an indication that the Salukis are still a ways off from playing the big boys competitively but Tuesday presents a good bounce back opportunity. This is the home opener and it comes in the newly renovated SIU Arena and with this being a nationally televised game, the environment will be electric despite the early start. The Salukis finished 15-15 overall and 6-12 in the MVC (ninth) last season, losing seven of 18 games decided by eight points or less. It was Southern Illinois's first ninth-place finish in the conference since 1981 so this team has something to prove. The Salukis have won their home opener 12-straight years dating back to 1998 and the Salukis are 45-5 at home against non-conference opponents since Dec. 8, 1999. The team is less experienced than past editions but the home floor makes up for it. While the Salukis are young, Northeastern is extremely young. The Huskies will have the best player on the floor in guard Chase Allen but after that, the team is thin. Allen averaged 13.6 ppg last season and the other seven returning players combined to average 10.7 ppg so where the production is going to come from is going to be an issue. Northeastern won its opener against Boston University by just two points and it was not a good effort as it was outshot 48 percent to 37.9 percent. Southern Illinois falls into a solid situation as well. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by six points or less, with just two starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1997. This is where the experience plays a big role, especially on the road, as team chemistry is going to be lacking. Based on the opening games for both sides, we get a very manageable number to work with Tuesday morning. 9* Southern Illinois Salukis
Virginia Tech +6½
Ben Burns
9* Personal Favorite - Dallas Stars
I'm playing on DALLAS. I successfully played against the Ducks in their last game, a 3-2 loss at Chicago. That snapped a 6-game winning streak for Anaheim. Facing a revenge-minded Dallas team, I expect the Ducks to drop their second straight here. After the loss at Chicago, Anaheim coach Randy Carlyle noted: "We didn't have very much energy tonight, we looked tired. We've played an awful lot of hockey, and we didn't look like we had the crispness..." While the Ducks have had a couple of nights off to recharge their batteries, now they're heading out on the road, where they have just three wins in 10 games. These teams just met on 11/12, at Anaheim. The Ducks were still rolling at the time and they'd had the previous night off. On the other hand, the Stars were off a game at LA the previous night. Now, the Stars come in well-rested and playing at home. The part about playing at home is particularly significant. Just as the Ducks have been much better at Anaheim, the Stars have been much better at Dallas. The Stars just lost all three of their road games. They've won three straight at home though and they're 5-3 here on the season. True, one of those losses did come vs. the Ducks - which makes this a "double-revenge" situation. However, a closer look at that one reveals that the Stars held a 37-26 edge in shots. Also, even including that result, the Stars are still 3-1 the last four times that they hosted the Ducks, going 31-13-2 against the Ducks here, since 1996. Over the years, the Stars have also been an excellent team at bouncing back from a losing streak. They're 37-18 (+19.5) the last 55 times that they'd lost three or more consecutive games. During that stretch, they've also gone a lucrative 150-90 (+52.4!) when coming off a loss of two or more goals. I expect them to bounce back and pad those stats here.
8* Toronto Maple Leafs
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Leafs have been stuck in an extended losing streak. They haven't quit though, as the team continues to fight hard, each and every game. Tonight, should be a good spot to snap their skid. Give the Predators credit for beating Chicago in their last game. That was somewhat of a difficult spot, as they'd been on the road for several games and the game against Chicago was their first home game in November. Now, they're immediately back on the road and don't return home until 11/24. That's noteworthy as they've dropped four of five on the road. Even though the Leafs came up short against the Canucks on Saturday night, they played well. Coach Ron Wilson was quoted as saying: "That's the best third period we¡¦ve played in two or three weeks." The Leafs beat the Predators in last season's lone meeting. Desperate for two points, I look for them to scrap and claw and find a way to do it again here.
8* Montreal/Philadelphia Under
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Montreal to finish UNDER the total. These teams both played high-scoring games against Carolina recently. The Flyers pounded the Hurricanes by a score of 8-1 on 11/11. They followed it up with a 5-2 win over Florida, another team from the Southeastern Division, and a 5-1 win over Ottawa last night. As for the Canadiens, they beat the Canes 7-2 in their last game. However, prior to facing Carolina, both teams had been involved in a stretch of low-scoring games. With this being a "playoff rematch," I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. Prior to the 7-2 win over Carolina on 11/13, the Canadiens had seen the UNDER go 9-1-1 their previous 11 games, incl. a perfect 7-0 their previous seven. Meanwhile, the Flyers had seen the UNDER go 4-0 in their four previous games, prior to the beatdown of Carolina. Both teams have been getting excellent goaltending. The Flyers have allowed just 12 goals in their last eight games. As for the Canadiens, they haven't allowed more than three goals for more than a month and they've only done so once this entire season. Over their last three games, they've allowed only three combined goals. The last time that the Flyers played the second of back to back games, they scored only two goals, a 3-2 loss at Washington. while that one had an O/U line of six, the Flyers have also seen the UNDER go 4-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Canadiens have seen the UNDER go 12-4-1 on the season and they've also seen the UNDER go 14-7-3 the past few seasons, after having won their three previous games. During that stretch, they've also seen the UNDER go 25-13-3 when playing with two day's rest in between games.
Rocketman
3* Detroit U +17.5
3* CS Northridge +16.5
Rocky Sheridan
5* Indiana Pacers +2.5
Ohio State +1.5
Louisville -1
Depaul -7
RAS
Wyoming +7
Arkansas St +8.5
Teddy Covers
NY Knicks
Tulsa
Ben Burns
10* Bulls/Rockets Over 207
I'm playing on Chicago and Houston to finish OVER the total. These teams have both played a few 'unders' recently. That's helped to keep the O/U line a little lower than it could have been otherwise. I feel that its a little too low. Games between Houston and Chicago have been high-scoring for many years. In fact, 19 of the last 26 meetings in the series have finished above the total. That's been particularly true when the Bulls have traveled to Houston. In fact, the OVER is a profitable 11-1 the last 12 meetings between these teams here. While that's all in the past, this season's Bulls are allowing a whopping 108 points on the road. Each of their road games has finished above the number. Overall, the Bulls are averaging 105 points per game on offense. The Rockets have been even better offensively. They're averaging 107.7 points - which happens to be exactly how many they allow. In their last home game, the Rockets scored 120. The fact that the Bulls have played three straight 'unders' needn't be cause for concern. The OVER is 11-4 the past 2+ seasons when they've been in that situation. With a couple of very capable offenses and a couple of inconsistent defenses, I expect those stats to improve here.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* Temple
10* Knicks / Nuggets Under
9* Miami Ohio
Flyers / Canadiens Under
RAS
Wyoming +7
Arkansas St +8.5
Added
Pepperdine +6
Hampton +3
Brandon Lang
Ohio Univ +7.5
ANTHONY REDD
20 Dime Ohio/Temple UNDER
10 Dime Temple Owls
2 MINUTE WARNING
10 Dime Butler Bulldogs
AL DEMARCO
5 Dime Memphis Grizzlies
CHUCK O'BRIEN
20 Dime Milwaukee Bucks
10 Dime Butler Bulldogs
BRETT ATKINS
20 Dime Butler Bulldogs
DEREK MANCINI
20 Dime Indiana Pacers
CRAIG DAVIS
75 Dime TEASER Temple Owls & OVER
25 Dime Milwaukee Bucks
20 Dime Ohio State Buckeyes
JAY MCNEIL
30 Dime Los Angeles Lakers ML
MATT RIVERS
150,000* Temple Owls
50,000* Chicago Bulls
JOEL TYSON
30 Dime Temple Owls
10 Dime New Mexico Lobos
TRACE ADAMS
1500* Temple Owls
500* SMU Mustangs
CHRIS JORDAN
200* Florida Gators
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Ohio +8
Jimmy Boyd
4* LA Lakers -3
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Temple
10 Dime Denver
TEMPLE
How can a team that’s won six games in a row, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven and is one win away from clinching its division and a berth in the MAC championship game be catching more than a touchdown? And more importantly, why would I go against that team? One reason: Two injured quarterbacks.
Ohio senior QB Boo Jackson (1,477 passing yards, 315 rushing yards, 21 total TDs) suffered a concussion in his team’s 34-17 win over Buffalo on Nov. 4 and almost cereainly will not be on the field tonight. And Jackson’s backup, junior Philip Bates – an Iowa State transfer – is questionable with an undisclosed injury (as it is, Bates has thrown just 20 passes for 178 yards, one TD and two INTs this season).
That obviously puts the Bobcats at a huge disadvantage tonight against a Temple squad that’s 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS, with its only losses coming at Northern Illinois (the best team in the MAC, and it was Temple’s third straight road game) and at Penn State (competitive 22-13 defeat). The Owls roll into tonight having won four in a row since the Northern Illinois setback, the last three by a combined score of 100-10. Admittedly, those three victories came against three MAC bottom-feeders – Buffalo, Akron and Kent State – but two were on the road, and the Owls took care of buseiness in a big way in those three wins, averaging 420.3 yards per contest (184.3 rushing) while allowing just 179.3 total ypg (33 rushing).
Both teams control their own destiny in the MAC’s East Division race – Ohio clinches the title with a victory tonight; Temple gets the crown with a win here and next week at Miami (Ohio) – so there’s a lot on the line. And that just makes Ohio’s quarterback injuries that much more critical.
There’s also a situational element in play here. Ohio has played four of its last five games at home (just one road contest since the first weekend of October), while Temple has been on the highway for five of its last seven games dating back to the third week of September. That’s a big advantage for the Owls, especially when you look at the defensive home-road splits (Ohio gives up 24.2 points and 386.8 yards per game as a visitor; Temple yields just 15.4 points and 304 yards per game on its turf).
The Owls have legitinate revenge here (35-17 loss at Ohio last year as a two-point road favorite). And while Ohio has covered the number in six of seven overall and eight of 11 on the road, the Bobcats also didn’t have two QBs hurt in those contests. Meanwhile, the Owls are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 8-1-1 when laying between 3½ and 10 points.
Bottom line: It would’ve been nice if Jackson was healthy and on the field for Ohio, because if that was the case, this would be a highly competitive contest. But with the Bobcats likely down to their third-string quarterback, we’re looking at a double-digit blowout.
NUGGETS
After a decent 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS start to the season, the Knicks have regressed back into the crappy team we’ve come to know quite well over the last decade or so. New York rolls into Denver after five straight losses and five straight non-covers, once again exhibiting absolutely zero effort on the defensive end of the court. To wit: Over the last five games, New York’s opponents are averaging 110.2 points per game, shooting 48 percent from the field and averaging nearly 46 rebounds per contest (including that inexcusable 31-point, 31-rebound effort by Kevin Love in Friday’s game at Minnesota).
Through five road games so far this season, the Knicks are getting outscored by 5.4 ppg (105.8-100.4), outshot by a 46.3 percent to 42.5 percent margin and getting outrebounded by a whopping 8 boards per contest (48-40). And tonight kicks off a four-game, five day Western Conference road swing for Mike D’Antoni’s crew.
Now, I’ll admit that the Nuggets haven’t exactly been dominant this season. After blowing a fourth-quarter lead in Phoenix last night, they’re at 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 ATS. However, at home Denver has been a different team, beating the Jazz (110-88), Clippers (111-104) and handing the Lakers their first defeat of the season (100-94). The only misstep was a 102-101 loss at Dallas (and in that one the Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony had a game-winning shot rim out at the buzzer). In those four home games, Denver is averaging 110 ppg (allowing 101.5) and shooting 47.6 percent overall and 83 percent from the foul line.
The point: Denver’s gonna score and score A LOT tonight. And I seriously doubt that New York, which has been held to 96 points or less in four of its last eight games (all losses) will be able to keep up.
The Nuggets have won four of the last five meetings against the Knicks, and the favorite is on a 14-6 ATS roll in this rivalry. And Denver has been strong as a sizeable home favorite lately, going 41-18-2 ATS in its last 61 games when laying 5 to 10½ points at the Pepsi Center.
Seabass
100* Temple
200* Pacers
50* V Tech
50* Penn St
200* Montreal
100* Dallas