Billy Coleman
4* Atl Hawks -2
4* Butler +1
3* Florida -1.5
Lenny Del Genio
20* MAC Game of Month - Temple Owls
10* Oddsmakers Mismatch - Butler Bulldogs
Jimmy Boyd
5* Temple Owls -7.5
4* LA Lakers -3.5
3* Michigan State -15.5
Dr B0B
3* TOLEDO (-10.0) 33 Bowling Green 12
Toledo is coming off a horrible 30-65 loss at Northern Illinois, but the Rockets have a long history of bouncing back at home, where they are 18-3 ATS after a loss – including 4-0 ATS under coach Dave Clawson. Toledo also applies to a 108-53-3 ATS humiliation bounce-back situation and a 99-30-2 ATS statistical match up indicator. In addition to the favorable technical analysis, my math model gives the Rockets a 60.7% chance of covering at -10 points based solely on the math. Toledo is a pretty decent team by MAC standards, averaging 5.3 yards per play and allowing 5.6 yppl while rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively after accounting for strength of schedule. A team that is just a bit below average from the line of scrimmage should have no trouble beating Bowling Green by a comfortable margin. The Falcons’ offense is horrible, as that unit is among the worst running teams in the nation (84 yards per game at 3.1 yards per rushing play, against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) while quarterback Matt Schilz has averaged just 4.9 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppp to an average team. Bowling Green is 1.7 yards per play worse than average offensively, giving Toledo a huge 1.5 yppl advantage when the Falcons have the ball.
Bowling Green is terrible defensively too, allowing 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so Toledo’s offense (0.3 yppl worse than average) has a 0.5 yppl advantage. Toledo’s starting quarterback Austin Dantin is out, but backup Terrance Owens has performed better so far and his 7 touchdown passes to just 1 interception (on 79 pass attempts) is better than Dantin’s 7 TD’s and 8 picks. In addition to being much better from the line of scrimmage Toledo is less likely to turn the ball over and they’re only slightly worse in special teams. My math model projects a 424 total yards to 258 total yards advantage for Toledo in this game and that should be more than enough to win by double-digits on a field where they generally do very well when motived by a loss. I’ll take Toledo in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars as a favorite of more than 11 points.
Strong Opinion
TEMPLE (-7.5) 32 Ohio 19
Temple’s offense has improved significantly with the insertion of big play quarterback Mike Gerardi against in week 7. Gerardi has completed 67% of his passes with plenty of big plays and he’s averaged 9.9 yards on his 85 pass plays (against teams that would combine to allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback). That’s a huge improvement over former starter Chester Stewart, who completed just 53% of his passes and was 1.4 yppp worse than an average quarterback. Temple’s offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a bad Ohio defense that’s given up 5.4 yppl in 7 games since losing top defensive player LB Noah Keller. Giving up 5.4 yppl doesn’t sound back until you consider that the Bobcats have faced a collection of mostly horrible offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.2 yppl against an average defensive team.
Ohio’s offense has picked up the pace with the defense not being as good, as the Bobcats have scored 30 points or more in 6 consecutive games. Starting quarterback Boo Jackson is out for this game, but I actually think the Bobcats’ attack will be better with running quarterback Phil Bates at the helm. Bates isn’t very accurate as a passer, but he is an exciting runner that has averaged 7.3 yards per run on 58 carries so far this season while being used as a wildcat quarterback. With Temple so concerned about the run Bates may also be able to hit on a couple of big pass plays, so I don’t think there will be any downgrade in Ohio’s yards per pass numbers even with Bates being less accurate. Temple defends the run well, allowing just 4.1 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team), but my math still forecasts Ohio with 237 rushing yards at 5.0 yprp and 327 total yards at 5.3 yards per play. Those are decent numbers, but probably won’t be good enough to keep up with what their defense gives up to an improved Temple attack. My math model gives Temple a solid 55% chance of covering and the Owls apply to a 44-10-2 ATS last home game situation and a 178-87-2 ATS late season angle. I’ll consider Temple a Strong Opinion at -9 ½ points or less and I’d take Temple in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Miami-Ohio (-10½) 31 AKRON 16
Akron is winless on the season and the Zips are just 2-9 ATS at home and 2-10 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .500 or higher since last season. My math model gives the Redhawks a profitable 54.8% chance of covering at -10 ½ points and I’d consider Miami-Ohio a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less.
Don Wallace
3* Milwaukee +4
3* Chicago +1.5
Northcoast
Marquee - Temple -8
Teddy Covers
NY Knicks
Tulsa
Added
VA Commonwealth
Young Guns
4* Toronto/Washington Over
4* Indiana
3* Portland
KELSO
15 UNITS TEMPLE OWLS -7.5
25 UNITS TCU HORNED FROGS -8
5 UNITS AKRON ZIPS +11
3 UNITS CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -2
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Temple
The Duke's Sports
Temple (-7') for 2 Units
Temple's defense has been outstanding this season and a main reason why we like the Owls here. The Owls are averaging just 15.4 ppg at home and especially stingy against the run (allow 95.6 ypg) ; consequently, we'll look for the Owls to load the box and force the one-dimensional Bobcats to do what they're not comfortable doing going to the air. And the more accurate passing QB and better runner QB Boo Jackson (concussion) will have to give way to backup Philip Bates, who has completed less than 50% of his passes. We'll look for Temple to take control of this game with their stellar defensive play and potent run game with the two headed monster backfield of Pierce and Brown. Temple is a solid 3-1-1 ATS as a home favorite in this spread range and playing to avenge last year's 35-17 loss. Temple the call.
Dave Cokin
Arizona State vs New Mexico
Pick: Arizona State +3.5
New Mexico unveils their refurbished "Pit" tonight with Arizona State providing the opposition. This should be a terrific duel between two solid teams that I have playing in the Big Dance come March Madness. But I feel the Sun Devils are a little ahead of the Lobos right now. With Paul McDonald injured to start the year, New Mexico has only two returning starters, and this looks to me to be a team that will be better later than they are right now. ASU has to replace a solid point guard, but they do have three starters back and might be ahead of their hosts right now. Nip and tuck battle is likely here, and with the number where it is, there's enough room to grab a cover with the Sun Devils even if they fall short on the outright win. I'll grab the points with Arizona State to come away with the cash tonight.
Bobby Maxwell
300-Unit MAC Must Play - TEMPLE OWLS
This is a complete revenge game and I’m definitely going to lay the points with Temple as the Owls have had this game circled since the schedules were announced.
Ohio beat Temple 35-17 last season and cost the Owls the MAC East Division title. Now, the Owls have tweaked things a bit and come into this matchup rolling, both offensively and defensively. It used to be that Temple’s defense got all the headlines – and well it should, having not allowed an offensive touchdown in any of the last three games. But now the offense is getting some attention behind redshirt sophomore QB Mike Gerardi.
Since being inserted into the starting lineup, Gerardi has thrown for 54-of-81, for 871 yards and eight TDs and just four INTs. That success has had an effect on the entire team as the offense is on the field more and the defense gets to rest.
Ohio’s offense is very good, but senior Boo Jackson, one of the two-headed monster at QB along with junior Phil Bates, is listed as doubtful tonight after suffering a concussion. Bates is the rushing portion of the two-headed monster, so without Jackson in the lineup, this team becomes a one-trick pony without much of a running game.
Temple leads the MAC in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game and that defense is going to come after the Bobcats tonight. Temple is on ATS surges of 6-2 overall, 6-2-1 after a bye, 4-1 as a favorite and 5-1 after a straight-up win.
I have no worries in going with the Owls tonight as they will win this one by two TDs. Play Temple.
100-Unit NBA Smart Play - HOUSTON ROCKETS
The Rockets got off to a terrible start, losing five straight, but these guys have a talented roster and might be figuring things out now. They have won three of their last four and covered the number in four of their last five. I’ll play Houston at home tonight as they should get the best of the Bulls with their newfound defensive intensity.
The Rockets gave up 107 points or more in their first five games, and over the last four have not allowed more than 99. Sunday, Houston went into New York and scored a 104-96 victory as 2 ½-point road ‘dogs, getting the job done on the boards, while led to easier baskets.
Chicago has also won three in a row overall, but they have lost its only two road games this season, at Oklahoma City and at Boston. The Bulls average five points less and give up eight points more on the road than they do overall.
The home team is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams, and the favorite is 4-1-1 in the last six.
Houston matches up very well with the Bulls when it comes to team speed and battling on the boards. I’ll play the suddenly red-hot Rockets at home in this one.
Pro Tech Sports
5* Portland Trail Blazers +1
5* Florida -3
Wunderdog
76ers
Raptors
Boston Under 139.5
Western Carolina Under 151
Gonzaga
Wash St
Dallas