KELSO
10 UNITS NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES -11
5 UNITS NEW ORLEANS HORNETS -8.5
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Northern Illinois
I love these kinds of college football games, when the oddsmakers have set such an obvious trap number begging for money on Toledo. The funny thing is it always works – you watch, Vegas will clean up on this game tonight as the public will look at the fact that A) Toledo is 6-3 (winning its last three in a row); B) Toledo, like Northern Illinois, is a perfect 5-0 in conference play; and C) Toledo has taken three of four from Northern Illinois and is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings (9-2-1 ATS in the last 12), and they’ll jump on the Rockets plus the double digits.
Well, I wasn’t born to the handiaapping world yesterday, and we aren’t falling for this trap. The simple truth is Northern Illinois is the class of the Mid-American Conference and Toledo is a fraud. Both points will be proven by the fourth quarter tonight.
Start with the home team. While Toledo has won three in a row, Northern Illinois has ripped off six straight wins. The first five were double-digit blowouts over Big Ten member Minnesota (34-23) and MAC foes Akron (50-14), Temple (31-17), Buffalo (45-14) and Central Michigan (33-7). Then in their most recent contest on Oct. 30, the Huskies went to Western Michigan and won 28-21 as a seven-point road favorite.
Throw in a competitive 28-22 loss at Illinois as a seven-point road underdog, and Northern Illinois is on a 6-0-1 ATS run. And in their three MAC home games – two of them against quality squads Temple and Central Michigan – the Huskies have put up 109 points and allowed just 38. What’s more, they’ve outgained every single one of their conference opponents, including four by more than 100 yards. Overall, NIU is out-yarding league foes by an average of 445-298, and if you throw in the Minnesota win, the Huskies have outrushed their last six opponents by a total of 889 yards!
So what about Toledo? OK, since getting destroyed 57-14 at Boise State on Oct. 9 – which came a week after a 20-15 home loss to Wyoming, which is terrible this season – the Rockets have run off three wins in a row while putting up 34, 31 and 42 points per game. But here’s the rub: The three vicltims were Kent State (home), Ball State (home) and Eastern Michigan (road). Not one of those teams is above .500, and that trio has a combined record of 8-20 overall and 6-11 in conference. Also, Eastern Michigan has given up the most points in college football this season 43.8 ppg), while Ball State isn’t far behind (30.3 ppg).
Also of importance here: Toledo will be without starting quarterback Austin Dantin (injury). Now, I’m sure Toledo supporters will point to that as no big deal, as Dantin (1,254 passing yards, 7 TDs, 8 INTs) has been mediocre at best (true), while his backup – Terrance Owens – passed for 234 yards with four TDs and no picks in relief of Dantin two weeks ago (also true). But Owens was facing Eastern Michigan, which has surrendered 24 TD passes and notched just two interceptions in nine games this season. Northern Illinois allows just 215.8 passing ypg with nine TD passes against 14 INTs. Big difference, huh?
As noted above, the Huskies run the football as well as any team in the country, averaging 243 ypg on the ground and 5.6 yards per carry. Well, the three best rushing teams Toledo has faced this season – Boise State, Purdue and Arizona – racked up 207, 220 and 105 yards, respectively, against the Rockets, averaging a tick under 5 yards per carry. Also, NIU’s ground attack has helped quarterback Chandler Harnish become very efficient; he’s corpleting 66 percent of his passes for 1,439 yards with 12 TDs vs. just four INTs.
As for the series history, yes, Toledo has won three of the last four and 11 of the last 13 and is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 clashes. But the last time the Rockets went to Northern Illinois was in 2008, when the Huskies were as good as they are this season. Result: NIU rolled 38-7 as an eight-point favorite.
Bottom line: As long as Northern Illinois (6-2 ATS last eight at home, all as a chalk) protects the football offense and continues to take it away on defense (18 forced turnovers), it will crush Toledo (1-4 ATS last five as a double-digit underdog) by at least three touchdowns.
Crown City Sports Consultant
5* Toledo +11.5
5* Rangers +125
Fairway Jay
20* GOM Indiana Pacers
Utah Jazz
John Fina
3 Units Toledo +11.5
Craig Davis
50 Dimes Miami Heat
Blowout city tonight as I believe the Utah Jazz, who have struggled on the road, are completely overmatched and have very little shot of winning tonight's game, let alone keeping this thing within nine points. Though they had some chemistry issues early on, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh have finally started to figure each other out and have, for the most part, dominated their opponents. Granted, they are human and have slipped up twice, in Boston and in New Orleans, but this team is loaded with talent and I really respect how they pride themselves in their defensive effort... something Utah could care less about. And think about the Heat's two losses this year... Boston and New Orleans... those two teams are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA and are the only type of team to give Miami fits. Not Utah.
Miami, as a franchise, shoots for its eighth straight home win over Utah tonight and 9th in 11 tries overall, including a run of 11 ATS covers in the last 12 meetings. So if Miami has had this type of dominance over the Jazz in the past, once can only wonder how ugly it's going to get tonight down in South Florida. This Miami offense hit a major milestone over the weekend as all three superstars scored at least 20 points for the first time this year. Wade had 29, James ended with 23 and Bosh added 21. Balance, finally.
Miami opened this six-game homestand against the Nets, winning 101-89, which dropped their average margin of victory (at home) to 23.4 over their first three home wins. 23.4 PPG is what they're beating teams by in three tries... impressive. And, as previously mentioned, the Heat has enjoyed a lot of success vs. the Jazz in the past, having last lost at home to Utah on March 10th of 2003. And although he wasn't playing with Miami at the time, LeBron James is averaging 33.3 points per game against Utah since 2007-08 while Dwayne Wade averages 32.3 PPG at home in his six seasons with the Heat.
But I'll say it again, this team prides itself in defense first, feeding its offense from the transition game off turnovers. The Heat are limiting teams to 40.4% shooting while holding all seven opponents to fewer than 100 points this year. The trick tonight will be keeping Utah quiet from behind the arc. In their victories this year, the Jazz are averaging 118 PPG and hitting 45% of their three-pointers. In their three losses they are shooting just 22% from downtown and scoring just 87 PPG.
Utah is the type of team Miami should have no problem "getting up" for and I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of a 105-88 Miami win.
Derek Mancini
10 Dimes Milwaukee Bucks
There's no question who the oddsmakers want you to play here - the Knicks. Which is funny, because we know from public perception 101, that bettors were going to play New York in this match up regardless, believing them to be the much better team here. So then, why would the guys in Vegas (and offshore) install the Bucks as a solid favorite here? Because the Bucks are going to deliver a strong performance tonight at home, that's why.
Look no further than the history between these two teams, as Milwaukee has won three straight (two of those outright). They've done it with defense, which is their calling card once again this season, allowing 93 ppg on 43% shooting thus far. True, the Bucks offense has looked awful in the early going, but they get just what the doctor ordered tonight - a match up against a terrible Knicks defense.
New York allows 103 ppg on nearly 46% shooting on the road - in limited action of course - but the proof is in the pudding. Knicks were already bad on defense last season, but the addition of the defensively inept Stoudemire is only going to make them worse. He'll put up points, but he'll also get torched on the other end. Jennings and Bogut have yet to really put up big numbers, but I expect at least one (if not both) to go off in this contest.
I know its tempting to back the Knicks getting all those points, but if you think oddsmakers are that stupid, then you're in for a long NBA season. Bucks have had issues, but they are a disciplined team that plays excellent defense, and that combination has and will spell trouble for New York tonite. Take the Bucks over the NY Knicks Tuesday.
Jay McNeil
100 Dime Teaser Northern Illinois & Over
I'll admit, I'm a little worried to lay the 10.5 with the Huskies, even though on paper they look like they pull away in the second half for an easy win and cover.
After all, not one Northern Illinois opponent has scored more than a touchdown in the second half this season. The Huskies outscored Temple, Buffalo and Central Michigan 62-0 in the second half, and over their last five games they've outscored opponents 98-14 after halftime.
However, this game has plenty of meaning, with both sitting at 5-0 in conference play. The winner of this game is in the driver's seat for the MAC West title. And even though the Huskies ride in on a six-game winning streak, Toledo leads the all-time series 29-8, including wins in 14 of the last 16 games.
I'm confident the oddsmakers have posted the right total on this game, as I have it landing around 50 or 51 points, so going over the number I have no problem doing. But since the Huskies have won 10 of their last 11, and seven straight league home games, I'm going to tease the favorite in this one
2-Minute Warning
10 Dime Northern Illinois
Al DeMarco
5 Dimes Indiana Pacers
Denver is 1-1 on its current road trip, opening with a 103-92 at Dallas before dropping a 94-92 decision at Chicago last night. You would think closing the journey at Indianapolis would be a good thing since the Nuggets have prevailed in five of their past six visits to Conseco Fielddhouse and 10 of the last 12 meetings in the series overall. The concern here, however, is Denver getting caught looking ahead to Thursday's home visit from the defending champion Lakers.
Another factor in backing Indiana is the Pacers poor play offensively in its last two games, losses against Philadelphia and Milwaukee in which they averaged just 82.5 points and shot 34.8%. For a team thrives in transition and excels at scoring, the recent two-game shooting slump is just an aberration. Indy averaged 104 points and shot 46.3% during a season-starting 2-1 run.
Difficult back-to-back situation for any road team, but especially the Nuggets, who were 6-15 ATS in such scenario's last season, including 4-11 on the road (1-0 this year).
Brett Atkins
15 Dime Indianapolis Pacers
The second night of a back-to-back here for the Nuggets and they had a tough one in Chicago on Monday night, blowing the lead and falling 94-92. Now they get no rest and have to go up against the young legs of the Pacers who like to get after it defensively at home. I’ll play Indiana tonight. Look for the young legs of PG Darren Collison, Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy and now much-improved big-man Roy Hibbert deliver some key scoring and defense today. If they can keep Carmelo under 30 points, I don’t see where the Nuggets can get enough scoring to win this game. The Pacers give up just 90 points a game at home this season and limit the opposition to 41 percent shooting from the floor. Denver isn’t cashing many tickets of late, going 3-10-2 on the road, 4-19-3 against losing teams and the big one that shows they are just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games on the second night of the back-to-back. Indiana is on ATS streaks of 10-4-1 at home and 7-3 against winning teams. I’m loving the Pacers in this matchup as they will throw some defense at the tired Nuggets’ legs.
Chuck O'Brien
25 Dime Miami Heat
We all know how great the Heat are, so no need to waste much time discussing them. Just know these two facts: 1) Miami has won five of six since opening the season with a loss in Boston, and that includes a 3-for-3 start at home in which it posted victories by margins of 26, 32 and 12 points (going 2-1 ATS); and 2) the Heat have not allowed an opponent to crack 97 points all season (and those 97 points were scored by Minnesota in a 32-point loss!). For the season, Miami is surrendering just 86.4 ppg. By comparison, the Jazz are yielding 103.2 ppg. … Utah has played just two solid games all season – a 120-99 win at Oklahoma City, followed by a 125-108 home win over a poor Raptors squad. In their last two outings, the Jazz fell at Golden State 85-78 and needed two overtimes to beat the Clippers in Salt Lake City (L.A. had a 55-39 halftime lead).
The Jazz have not fared well against the Heat in recent years, losing 11 of the last 13 meetings while going just 2-11 ATS. That includes six straight losses in South Beach, failing to cover in each of the last five. And obviously LeBron James and Chris Bosh weren’t wearing Heat uniforms in any of those games. However, All-Star forward Carlos Boozer was in a Jazz uniform for many of those losses, but now he’s in Chicago.
So to summarize, the Heat are on an 11-2 SU and ATS roll against Utah, and Miami has added two of the league’s best players at their respective positions since last year while the Jazz have lost one of the best players at his position. Beyond that, the best player on Utah’s roster right now – point guard Derron Williams – has a nagging back injury (Williams is expected to play tonight, but back injuries are extremely unpredictable). … Yes, I’m concerned a little bit about the fact the Heat have a huge revenge game on deck (they host Boston on Thursday). However, this is a squad still trying to figure out how to play together, and since they know they’ll have a bull’s-eye on their chest every night, I expect nothing but focus from LeBron, Bosh and Wade every time they take the court. … One final note about Utah: It is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog and 6-17-1 ATS in its last 24 as a road ‘dog of five to 10½ points.
Antony Dinero
Toledo at N. Illinois
Pick: Over 49.5
Back NIU on senior night to roll all over fellow MAC unbeaten Toledo in a Tuesday night conference clash. The Rockets have overachieved this season, but are missing QB Austin Dantin, forced to ride a freshman in Terrance Owens in the toughest road game they've had since hitting the blue turf in Boise and getting torn apart. NIU has a veteran QB in Chandler Harnish that can beat you with his arm and his legs, setting the bar too high for Owens to follow suit. Look for the kid to make mistakes, leading to to short fields and points being handed over to a team that doesn't need the help.
The Duke's Sports
Northern Illinois (-11) for 1.5 Units
The Huskies, which lost by a point at Toledo last year, have been suspect in the favorite role with revenge at 1-6 ATS; on the other hand, the Rockets have burned money on the road vs an opponent with revenge at 2-12 ATS. We'll opt for the home team with a the strong defense and productive run game. NI defense does a bang up job at limiting points at 19 per game, and on offense controls the clock with 1000 yard rusher Chad Spann. Moreover, Huskies' QB Harnish has versatility as a runner and accurate passer (66% w/ 12 TD / 4 INT) that gives NI the edge. Toledo, on the other hand, must rely on backup QB Terrance Owens after Dantin went down with a shoulder injury last week. And although Owens did a solid job in garbage time at Boise State and vs lightweight E. Michigan, he'll be sorely tested against a veteran NI defense at this strong venue. The Huskies have covered 6 of their last 8 home games and should deliver in their home finale here. Toledo, coming off a blowout of conference bottom feeder -- Eastern Michigan, has a tendency to take their foot off the gas after big wins as their 3-8 ATS mark following a SU win of 20+ indicates.
Lenny Del Genio
20* Pistons / Blazers Over 188.5
Detroit has typically not been a team that goes Under in BB games, as evidenced by a fact that they are 26-15 Over after going Under in their previous game. They have not gone Under in BB games this season. Over Detroit/Portland is our 20* NBA Totals Winner.