igz1 sports
4* Detroit +155
Fantasy Sports Gametime
50* Play Minnesota (-165) over Detroit
Minnesota has won 19 of the last 25 games when playing on a Tuesday and the have also won 26 of the last 36 games when playing with a day off. Minnesota has won 16 of the last 20 overall games and Scott Baker has won 24 of the last 31 games as a favorite of -125 to -175.
WAYNE ROOT
Football Upset Club
3* Troy (-6½) over Middle Tennessee
Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. Take the Detroit Tigers +150 over the Minnesota Twins
Dave Malinsky
Top of the Ticket
4* MINNESOTA/DETROIT Over
This will be the 19th game played between the Twins and Tigers this season, and only three of the previous 18 have finished below the ?8? that we see posted for this Total. Of the 18 previous posted Totals, an ?8? was only used three times, all games involving Justin Verlander. Which takes us to the obvious question ? do Rick Porcello and Scott Baker merit this range, even with fresh bullpens? Our answer is no. Neither of these starters bring overpowering stuff, relying more on finesse than throwing the ball past hitters. That is an issue because there is a high degree of familiarity for both lineups ? each starter has made two of his last three starts against this opponent, which means that the bag of tricks has been played through. And it is not as though they have been dominating in those past encounters; if anything Baker has been downright weak, while Porcello has particularly struggled in the Metrodome. This is the fifth time around for Baker against the Tigers this season, and in the first four they got to him for 15 runs on 29 hits over 20 innings, a hefty 6.75 allowance. He has had particular long-term issues with the red-hot Magglio Ordonez (.462 with two home runs over 39 at-bats), as well as Carlos Guillen (.407 over 27 at-bats) and Curtis Granderson (four home runs in 45 at-bats). Meanwhile this will be Porcello?s third outing from this mound, where he has allowed nine runs (seven earned) in 10 innings, on 15 hits and a pair of home runs. And Porcello brings an added issue here ? while keeping his pitch counts low was a big part of why he maintained his physical levels through his rookie season, he worked a career-high 111 pitches against the Twins in his last outing. Baker can bring a similar issue ? his 194 innings is by far a career high, and those five innings that he worked against the Tigers on Thursday required 105 pitches, his highest PPI since the All Star break, and tied for his third high of the season. He was not sharp, but got away with it.
Robert Ferringo
4-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 Detroit at Minnesota
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-165) over Detroit
0.5-Unit Play. FIVE-INNING LINE: Take 'Under' 4.5 Detroit at Minnesota
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Middle-Tennessee at Troy
Pick: Troy -6.5
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Troy's athletic defense should be able to hang with Middle Tennessee dual-threat QB Dwight Dasher, who is basically the whole show on offense. If the Trojans can contain playmakers well enough to consistently spy on Dasher and limit his ability to escape downfield for long gains, they should be able to control this game and set the pace early. Troy QB Levi Brown has his full arsenal of playmakers available to him with talented freshman Shawn Southward back, giving the home side an explosive attack with which to drop the Blue Raiders. Lay the points.
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Middle Tennessee State (+7) for 1.5 Units
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MTS is a veteran team that demonstrated strength on the road with a win at MD and at North Texas. The Blue Raiders, which are 12-3 ATS in October, are looking to avenge last year's 31-17 home loss and should fare well here; after all, MTS sports a 5-1 ATS mark with revenge off a double-digit ATS win. MTS has a veteran offense that can move the football well under former Troy OC Tony Franklin. Troy has struggled defensively and we don't like laying wood with struggling defenses. We'll look for MTS to trade points effectively and cover.
Wayne Root
Vegas Legend - Troy
Millionaire - Minnesota
Tim Trushel
Troy
ALATEX
20* SUPERPLAY MINNESOTA UNDER 8.5
Tony Salinas
26* Twins (-175) over Tigers
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy MTSU/Troy Sun Belt Side SLAUGHTER on Middle Tennessee State +7
The Blue Raiders are ready to stand up to the Troy Trojans in the Sun Belt conference this season. MTSU is already 3-1 this season, beating Memphis, Maryland and North Texas. They have an explosive offense that is putting up 28.5 points/game, 407.2 yards/game and 274.8 passing yards/game. In fact, seven different receivers have caught touchdown passes from QB Dwight Dasher through just four games. This team has the balance that it takes to knock off the bully in the Sun Belt, which is the Trojans. Troy has won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 against MTSU, so you know that Blue Raiders will be hungry for some revenge tonight. The Trojans are 2-2 this season, with their only wins against 1-3 Arkansas State and 2-3 UAB. Troy is only putting up 19.2 points/game on offense this season, so they are lacking the explosiveness it takes to cover a touchdown spread at home tonight against an improved MTSU team. The Blue Raiders have 16 starters back this season compared to Troy's 12, including 10 on offense. The Blue Raiders are 12-3 (80%) ATS in their last 15 games in October. The Blue Raiders are 5-1 (83%) ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. MTSU has the balanced offense it takes to give the Trojans' defense fits tonight, likely pulling off the upset. Take Middle Tennessee State and the points.
Ben Burns
Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE YEAR! **8-1 YTD**
Analysis: I'm playing on Middle Tennessee State and Troy to finish OVER the total. These teams have seen the 'under' go 4-0 the last four seasons. However, I expect that trend to come to an end this evening. The last two meetings have both come very close to going over the total. Last year's game had an o/u line of 49.5 and finished with 48 combined points. The previous season, the teams combined for 52 points in a game which had an o/u line in the high 50s. In both cases, the Tro†jans did their part. In 2007, Troy finished with 45 points and last year the Trojans tallied 31. However, the Blue Raiders averaged only 12 points, scoring seven in 2007 and 17 last season. I expect the Trojans to again top the 30 mark tonight. Only this time, I also expect the Blue Raiders to chip in enough to help the game finish above the number.
Playing on the road and facing a tough Clemson defense, the Blue Raiders managed only 14 points in their opener. However, since then, they've topped the 30 point mark in all three of their games. In fact, they've been scoring progressively more points every time that they've taken the field. They followed up their 14 point effort at Clemson by scoring 31 vs. Memphis. That was followed by an impressive 32-31 victory at Maryland. Last time out, they scored a whopping 37 at North Texas. Not surprisingly, three of their four games have eclipsed the total.
Off three straight victories, it should also be noted that the Blue Raiders have now seen the OVER go a profitable 5-1 the last 2+ seasons, when coming off two or more consecutive wins. Here, QB Dwight Dasher will face a Troy defense which is giving up more than 260 passing yards per game. Note that Dasher has already thrown for more than 1000 yards (with seven TDs) while adding 250+ rushing yards and three rushing TD's.
As for the Trojans, they're still the class of the conference. After a disappointing loss at Bowling Green in their opener, they got blown out at The Swamp by the Gators. Throw that one out the window as the Gators would do the same to nearly every team in the country. They've since responded with back to back SU/ATS victories, scoring 27 two weeks ago and 30 vs. Arkansas State last week. Back home and with the national spotlight on them, I expect a big effort from the offense. Note that the Trojans have seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times that they faced a team with a winning record.
Both these teams returned significantly more players on offense than they did on defense this year. I expect that to be evident here with tonight's game proving to be the highest series meeting since these teams started having o/u lines in their games against each other. *9 Top Sun Belt Total
Sam Clayton
30 dime - DET/MIN Under 8.5
While several people are calling for a offensive barrage today in the Terrordome on national television, I'm thinking otherwise given the drastic one-game playoff atmosphere, one that has historically sailed under the posted total. 'Twas the same case last season as the Twins and White Sox squared off -- the media hyped the over drastically, said we'd be in for a slugfest -- and Chicago prevailed 1-0 at Comiskey Park. Now, I know the teams and the site have changed, but I expect much of the same tonight in the Twin Cities.
In fact, since 1998, there have been four one-game playoffs and three went under the posted total. The lone over was posted in 2007 when Colorado beat San Diego 9-8 in 13 innings at Coors Field, where the ball just so happens to fly out of that park like a meteorite. Given the make-ups of these two teams and the pitching they'll be going up against, I love a low-scoring contest. Sinkerballer Rick Porcello faces a Minnesota lineup (sans Justin Morneau and Joe Crede) that doesn't have much power and Twins' righty Scott Baker squares off against a heavy right-handed hitting Detroit lineup. Not to mention, Detroit's best hitters are struggling, including Miguel Cabrera (1 for his last 15), whose love affair with booze and beating his wife have taken over his ability down the home stretch. Besides, as we've learned in years' past, the pressure has seemed to be on the hitters in sudden death games. I'm sure we'll see many timid swings and anxious approaches at the dish today just like we saw last season with Minnesota and Chicago.
Contrary to popular belief, Porcello has actually turned things up a notch down the stretch. The 20-year-old rookie is 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA his last two starts and against Minnesota this year, he's 1-2 with a solid 3.09 ERA. How's this for an important intangible: Porcello has started four times against the Twinkies this year and the under has cashed every single time. Baker on the other hand has been lights out since the All-Star break, compiling a 8-2 record with a 3.21 ERA over that span. If he mixes his breaking ball and change like I know he can, he'll have a great outing.
I really believe these two young pitchers will rise to the occasion tonight and keep runs off the board. I've capped this one out as a 4-2, 4-3 ballgame and I'd be really surprised to see anything different. This season, in the eight games in Minnesota between these two clubs, the under cashed five times. The 'Dome will be absolutely insane (just like it was last night for Monday Night Football) and I think it'll rattle many of the hitters. And if the ball gets to Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan, we shouldn't have to sweat it out. It might not be the popular pick, but it's the right one.
Play the UNDER