Wunderdog
Utah
David Malinsky
4* UTAH over BOISE STATE
Here is where the marketplace has a major problem with Boise. While the debate lingered all season as to whether or not the Broncos deserved to be in the BCS hunt, it kept their power rating at a premium. As such they now are being called on to get a substantial margin vs. a quality opponent, and the question is the simplest one just where is the evidence of such abilities? Yes, Chris Peterson coaches his team as well as anyone anywhere, and Boise plays with fundamental soundness all over the field. But is the talent really such that this spread is warranted? We do not see it.
Boise had two significant challenges away from the blue turf this season, having to score with 1:07 remaining to get past good, but not great, Virginia Tech 33-30 in Landover to open, and then losing that dramatic O.T. affair vs. Nevada in Reno the day after Thanksgiving. Not only does it bring a dearth of resume points, but also a lack of experience going up against teams of your own class at the line of scrimmage, which is their most dominant area vs. the soft WAC opposition they face. Now the line is calling for a crescendo point based on both their talent and their focus, and neither is a guarantee a trip to rainy Las Vegas has hardly turned into a travel treat, and with only 18 days since their last regular season game, there was not a lot of down time to get physically or mentally refreshed.
Utah was also over-rated early in the season, clearly being out-classed when it became showdown time vs. T.C.U. But the Utes were 4-1 SU in their other five games against bowl teams, and bring a physical toughness and fundamental soundness that makes them difficult to put out of a game. They were #23 in the nation in scoring defense, #20 in total defense and #8 against the run, so they are not going to be pushed around, and they will bring much more confidence than we usually find from an underdog in this price range there is that most impressive streak of nine consecutive bowl wins that they bring, a run that includes such impressive showings as that wire-to-wire 31-17 win over Alabama as +9.5 in the Sugar Bowl two years ago. Even the absence of QB Jordan Wynn is not as big a factor as the markets are making it to be, with SR Terrance Cain bringing plenty of experience, and a 9-1 SU record when in a starting role. Look for the Utes to attack with Matt Asiata between the tackles to start the game, negating some of that Boise speed on defense and forcing the Broncos to have to deal with the rarity of an opponent running right at them, and after that defense allowed 269 rushing yards to Nevada and 250 to Utah State in the last two games, there is a vulnerability that keeps the underdog in the hunt for a long time.
3* BOISE STATE/UTAH UNDER
We are also involved in the Total in this one. They are pricing the game as a track meet despite what will likely be soggy conditions, with several days of rain leading up, including flash flood warnings across Clark County. With two defenses that do not show a weakness anywhere, especially in terms of allowing big plays (Utah gave up two TD's on plays of more than 40 yards; Boise only one), both offenses are forced to work the chains for what they can get, and their fundamental soundness also prevents cheap points from being given away.
Dr. Bob
Boise St. (-17.0) 35 Utah 21 (at Las Vegas Bowl)
Pre-New Year’s Day bowl underdogs of 16 points or more are 7-0 ATS since 1980 and Utah applies to a very strong 51-8-4 ATS big bowl underdog situation that I won with twice last year on Best Bets (Wyoming over Fresno and SMU over Nevada). The question is if the line is fair enough to make the Utes a Best Bet and if Boise State really cares about this game. Let’s start with the math to figure out if the line is fair.
Utah slipped up a bit late in the season, losing 7-47 in their unbeaten showdown with TCU and then losing the next week 3-28 at Notre Dame in a letdown spot. The Utes rebounded with a quality come from behind win at San Diego State and a close call victory over an improved BYU team. While the Utes certainly weren’t good enough to be a top 10 team, as they were rated before losing to TCU, they are a still a good team that is capable of playing with good teams. The Utes averaged a very good 6.3 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) but the offense struggled late in the season against good defensive teams, averaging just 4.1 yppl and 9 points against TCU, Notre Dame, and BYU. Utah did averaged 6.4 yppl against a good Pitt defense in their opener and 7.7 yppl against a better than average San Diego State defense in week 12, but their struggles against the 3 best defensive teams that they faced is a real concern against a Boise State defense that I rate as the best in the nation.
Boise State allowed just 4.1 yppl and 13.6 points per game against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl (which is about average), so their great stats were not a function of an easy schedule. Boise gave up just 4.8 yppl to a Virginia Tech offense that proved to be very good, they gave up just 4.0 yppl to Oregon State, and shut down a potent Hawaii offense (3.4 yppl and 7 points). The Broncos’ worst defensive performance came in their loss to Nevada, as the Wolf Pack averaged 6.1 yppl and scored 31 points in regulation. However, Nevada would average 7.2 yppl and score 40 points at home against an average defensive team, so that was still a good defensive performance. Overall, Boise’s defense actually performed better against the 4 good offensive teams that they faced, as they yielded just 4.8 yppl in those games to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppl against an average defense (1.8 yppl better than average instead of their 1.4 yppl defensive rating when I exclude the stats of their backups).
Utah will be without starting quarterback Jordan Wynn, who hasn’t recovered from shoulder surgery, but senior Terrance Cain is a more than capable replacement that was effective as the starter last season before getting replaced for the final 5 games. Cain’s numbers last season were a bit worse than Wynn’s numbers and Cain’s numbers this season were inflated by having his two starts against bad defensive teams UNLV and New Mexico. Cain averaged 8.3 yards per pass play on 73 pass plays this season while facing teams that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Those numbers are 0.4 yppp worse than Utah’s season passing numbers (7.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp) and I project Utah with 265 yards at 4.3 yppl if Boise State’s great defense plays their normal game (I excluded the stats of Boise’s backups in garbage times since the backups aren’t likely to see the field unless this game is a blowout).
Boise State’s offense ranks as my 4th best unit in the nation (and I still think Boise is the best overall team in the nation) with a good rushing attack (5.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp to an average team) and a quarterback that averaged an incredible 9.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback). The 6.2 yppp that Boise’s opponents would allow to an average quarterback is the national average, so Kellen Moore did not pad his stats by taking advantage of a schedule of bad defensive teams. Utah’s pass defense (6.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp against an average defense) is actually 0.6 yppp worse than what Moore has faced on average this season, which spells trouble for the Utes if Boise is playing at their normal level. Utah is very good defending the run, allowing just 3.8 yprp to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp against an average team, so Boise’s rush attack should be slowed down (my model predicts 4.5 yprp for Boise). Overall Utah is just 0.1 yppl better than average defensively but the Utes were very good in limiting teams scoring (allowed just 19.8 points per game) thanks to their excellent special teams (helping with field position) and a good redzone defense (47% TD’s allowed in the redzone is very good). Teams with a good run defense are generally tougher to score on near the goal line, so they might consider keeping an extra safety back to defend Boise’s big play passing game and take their chances in the redzone. My math model projects 475 yards at 7.6 yppl for the Broncos in this game.
Overall the math model favors Boise State by 21 points with a total of 54 ½ points with Cain at quarterback for Utah instead of Wynn (a 2 point difference). The line is a lower than it should be since the odds makers are well aware of the historical performance of big dogs in bowl games. The 51-8-4 ATS situation has covered by a median of 7 points, which would give me Boise by just 14 points if they suffer the letdown that the angle suggests that they should. I can certainly see the Broncos not being that excited about this game, as they were hoping for a BCS bowl game and got a minor bowl game that is being played before Christmas. However, playing a team like Utah, that was ranked in the top 10 earlier in the season, could get Boise’s attention. I’ll lean with Utah at +16 points or less and I’ll lean with the Under at 59 or higher, which looks like the better play given the likely windy conditions of Vegas in December, which make it tougher to throw the ball.
Chris Jordan
Boise State -17
Billy Coleman
Utah +16.5
Chi -2.5
Utah/Minn Over 208.5
Hou/LAC Under 207.5
Mich St -5.5
Dwayne Bryant
Utah +16.5
RAS
1.5 Units James Madison -3.5
1.5 Units Northern Arizona -7
Princeton -5.5
George Mason +4
Dayton +9
DePaul -2
Portland -3
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Utah
10* Penguins Under
Celtics Under
Helmut
South Florida +9
George Washington -4.5
RAS
1.5 Units Idaho St +1
Teddy Covers
Utah
Philadelphia 76ers
Princeton
Xavier
Bob Valentino
Utah
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Spurs Under
Stephen Nover
Bowl GOY - Boise St.
Fairway Jay
15* Utes/Broncos Under