Mike Lineback
4* Bulls
4* Rockets
DAVID BANKS
BOISE ST
OVER 57
OKLAHOMA CITY
UTAH
TEXAS
ILLINOIS
DAVID BANKS
BOISE ST
OVER 57
OKLAHOMA CITY
UTAH
TEXAS
ILLINOIS
Ben Burns
Utah
Boise St/Utah Under
New Orleans
Redwings
Dr Bob
3* Rider +2½
2* Houston +1
2* Seton Hall -7½
College Opinion
OHIO (+9) over Temple
Ohio has one of the strongest home advantages in basketball, as the Bobcats are 82-43-1 ATS at home going back many years, including 30-5 ATS in games when not favored by more than 3 points. The Bobcats are even 10-4 straight up (12-2 ATS) as a home underdog. This year’s Ohio team hasn’t performed well against better teams and they did lose at home to the only good team that they’ve faced this season (Oakland-Michigan), so I’ll just lean with the Bobcats tonight.
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
3* Utah
Special K
7* Florida Atlantic + 3
Kyle Hunter
3* Colorado St -3½
The Colorado State Rams are a much improved basketball team. The Rams are 3-2 ATS this year, and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Rams are very efficient on the offensive end and they get to the line often. Appalachian State is a team that has talent, but I don't think they'll win much outside of their conference. I saw this team play against Georgetown and they didn't impress me at all. I think Colorado State will take advantage of the Mountaineers porous defense and I don't believe App. State will have enough weapons to keep up. Sims is a good player, but the Rams have many more options on the offensive end. I think the Rams will win this one by a comfortable margin .
3* Dayton +9½
The Dayton Flyers haven't played that well this year, but they are a dangerous team. They lost a = couple players, but they return most of their team from last year. Last year's team won the NIT. Looking back you'll find that Dayton has lost only one game by more than 9 points in the last 50 games. That's a pretty amazing number, especially when you consider that they played top teams like Villanova, Georgia Tech, and New Mexico all on the road last year. The Flyers have plenty of athleticism and they get after it on the defensive end. Seton Hall is without their star player, Jeremy Hazell, and they just aren't the same without him. Seton Hall is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games, and they are only 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games overall. Dayton is 5-1 ATS= in their last 6 road games. I think getting 9.5 points is a GREAT value on this impressive road underdog.
3* Portland -4
The Portland Pilots play solid team basketball, which makes them difficult to beat, especially at home. Boise State has some talent, but they had a meltdown at Utah last week and they were beaten on the road by a terrible Drake team. The only wins they have on the road are at lowly San Diego, UC Davis, and Northern Illinois . Portland is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and that one loss was against Kentucky at the beginning of the season. The Pilots are third best in the nation at knocking down the three ball, and Boise State has struggled all year defending beyond the arc. The Broncos have played one of the weak= est schedules in the nation this year, while Portland has played a fairly tough schedule. I like the Pilots to cover this short number on their home court.
RAS
Kansas/California Over 138
MTi Sports
4* Bulls
4* Nuggets
4* Nets Under
PPP
5% Utah
Northcoast
4* Utah
Jeff Benton
20 Dime Utah
This pointspread took a big plunge on Tuesday, dropping from a high 18 in some spots all the way down to 15 in some spots. The main reason? It’s been raining cats and dogs here in Vegas since early Monday and the forecast is for the precipitation to continue all day today. Throw in some wind, and it’s easy to understand why so much sharp money has come in on Utah over the past 48 hours.
But there’s more at play here than just the weather. This pointspread was inflated to begin with – for Boise State, a team disappointed to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl pre-Christmas when they had the Broncos had their sights set on the BCS championship game (or at least a BCS Bowl game) all season, to join Oklahoma (vs. UConn) as the biggest favorites of the entire bowl season? Against a Utah squad that went 10-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS and has won nine straight bowl games (the longest active streak in college football)? It never made any sense to me.
Sure, I’m aware that Utah is without starting quarterback Jordan Wynn (the sophomore is out with a shoulder injury). But it’s not as though his backup is some freshman slouch. Terrance Cain is a senior who’s been with the Utes the last two years. Last year in limited action, he completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,624 yards, 11 TDs and 5 INTs while adding 318 rushing yards and two additional scores. This year, he appeared in a handful of games and went 51-for-72 for 610 yards with six TDs and two picks.
True, Cain’s numbers pale in comparison to Boise State junior Kellen Morrow (3,506 passing yards, 33 TDs, 5 INTs). And Cain and the Utes will be facing one of the best defenses in college football (Boise State allowed 13.6 points and 264.1 total yards per game, including 155.8 passing yards per game, in the regular season). But Utah’s defense isn’t exactly a joke. The Utes yield just 19.8 points and 319.7 total yards per game, and their rushing defense (104.2 ypg) is better than Boise’s (108.3 ypg).
And while Utah gave up 34 points to San Diego State and 47 points to TCU (the two best teams the Utes faced), Boise’s defense was exposed against its three toughest opponents: Virginia Tech put up 30 (in a neutral-site season-opener); Oregon State scored 24 (at Boise); and Nevada put up 34 (in Reno, handing the Broncos their only loss of the season). Well, Utah’s offense scored 27 points or more in nine of 12 games (winning all nine).
Now, I know most people supporting Boise State will point to one game to support their argument: Utah’s 47-7 home loss to TCU back on Nov. 6, a defeat that ended the Utes’ perfect season. I was on TCU with a 40 Dime play that day, and it was one of the easiest winners I had all year in college football. Is Boise State as good as TCU? Probably. So what makes me think the Broncos won’t have similar success against Utah? Because the Utes have had three full weeks to prepare for this game, and you know they don’t want to get embarrassed on a national stage again.
Back to Utah’s bowl winning streak: It’s not like the Utes have been beating up on patsies from the Sun Belt conference or something. Look at some of the victims: Fresno State and USC (in the 1999 and 2001 Las Vegas Bowls); Pittsburgh and Alabama (in BCS bowls); and Georgia Tech, Navy and California. The Utes have averaged 33.5 ppg in the last six bowl wins (scoring 30-plus points in five of the games), and they’ve held seven of their nine bowl victims to 17 points or less, including Fresno State (16), USC (6), Pitt (7), Georgia Tech (10), Tulsa (13) and Alabama (17).
Utah has cashed in seven of its last eight bowls, going 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog. The Utes are also 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 as an underdog overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points.
Throw in the fact that you have seriously question Boise State’s motivation tonight – again, this was a team that as recently as three weeks ago was undefeated and talking national championship – and the only way to roll in this game is with the underdog (and by the way, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six Las Vegas Bowls).
KELSO
25 Units Boise St -17
25 Units Northern Arizona -8.5
15 Units LA Clippers-1
10 Units New Mexico -5
3 Units George Mason +4
3 Units Gonzaga -5
Seabass
100* Redwings
50* Syracuse
50* Xavier
200* Steam Utah Utes