The Duke's Sports
Utah (+3) for 1.5 Units
The Mountain West Conference hasn't gotten respect from the oddsmakers this bowl season however, they're 2-0 SU/ATS and should continue their run tonight. Like we did yesterday, we'll grab a bowl team higher ranked than their opponent. Utah, ranked #23, sports a perfect 8-0 SU mark in bowls since 1999. The Utes are good late season finishers and despite its youth in a lot of areas, including QB,they play well together as a team. And defensively have been ball hawking (15 INT) and do some nice things defensively to confuse opposing QBs. The Bears, however, have not played the favorite role well (1-4 ATS) and sport a 3-4 ATS mark vs the MWC under Tedford. The Bears got blasted at Washington in their last game and although they've shown resilience at times, we'll fade them in this spot. Utah is 8-0 ATS as dogs vs an opponent off a double digit SU loss.
Dwayne Bryant
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns
Bet: Phoenix Suns -9
Just a tough spot for the Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City is coming off a hard-fought game last night at Staples Center, losing by just three points to the Lakers as 10-point road dogs. So this marks the second road game in as many nights and now they get to travel to Phoenix to take on a Suns team that will run them up and down the court for a full 48 minutes. No doubt in my mind that tired legs will be a factor for the Thunder in the second half of this game. And with Phoenix coming off their first home loss of the season in embarrassing fashion (109-91) to Cleveland, you can expect the Suns to play with a ton of energy and focus tonight. The Suns are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and the situation dictates more of the same tonight. I see a 15-point win for the Suns, so lay the points with Phoenix as my NBA Game of the Week play.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Calgary -175
St. Louis (16-14-5) moved out of last place in the Western Conference with a 3-1 victory at Vancouver on Sunday, then won 7-2 at Edmonton on Monday. That marked the Blues’ best offensive output since a 7-4 victory over Chicago on Jan. 12, 2004.
St. Louis picked up a rare home win last Tuesday, 4-3 over Calgary, as McDonald and Steen snapped respective goal droughts of 14 and 12 games.
However I'm expecting a "letdown" this evening in a building they've traditionally really struggled in.
It's true that St. Louis is 5-1 its last six on the road, but it always struggles against Calgary; 3-14 its last 17 vs. the Flames.
On the other side of the rink: The Flames (20-11-4) are coming off a 5-3 loss to Nashville at the Saddledome on Saturday, their first regulation defeat there since Nov. 19. Calgary has gone 1-3-1 since winning six of eight; I'm expecting a "bounce-back" this evening.
The Flames had a chance to win Saturday with the score tied at 3 after two periods, but allowed two third-period goals. That has been a common theme lately for Calgary, which was outscored 4-1 in the third during the last three games.
Kiprusoff was not in net against the Blues last week, but went 6-1-0 with a 1.84 goals-against average in his last seven home matchups with them.
Keep in mind though that Calgary is 7-1 its last eight vs. St. Louis at the Saddledome.
Bottom line: So with "revenge" on their minds off last Tuesday's loss, I expect a concerted effort from the Flames on both sides of the ice in front of the hometown crowd; look for CALGARY to improve to 4-1 (+2 units) when playing three or more days of rest and for St. Louis to fall to 1-8 (-9 units) after a win by two goals or more in its previous contest.
7* FLAMES
Tony George
Charlotte +7.5
Charlotte is 9-1 here. They have edges in offense, rebounding, FG %, depth, turnovers, you name it. Getting points here a gift.
Play 1 Unit on Charlotte
Evan Altemus
Houston +8.5
Orlando is a big game looming on Christmas, so the effort will be lacking in this game. Plus head coach Stan Van Gundy will likely rest his starters more tonight even if the Magic get a big lead. This is a great opportunity to get plenty of points in a game featuring one team that plays well on the road against another team that isn’t dominant at home. The Magic are only 7-6 against the spread at home, while the Rockets are 10-6 against the spread on the road. Houston almost plays as well on the road as at home. The Rockets did play last night but they are 4-3 ATS this season in back-to-back games this season, so it shouldn’t have too much of an impact. Houston also had a relatively easy home win last night against the Clippers, and they are well rested heading into their road trip. Look for the Rockets to cover the point spread.
3 UNIT SELECTION ROCKETS
Bob Balfe
California -2.5
California is not getting much love as a favorite. We all remember what Utah did to Alabama last years bowl game, but I do not think this Utes team is nearly as good as the powerhouses in the past. For starters, Utah has a true freshman QB in Jordan Wynn who has only started five games in his career and in his last three completed only 50% of his passes. Utah is going to have a tough time running the ball against a stiff Bears Rush Defense. Cal has been very inconsistent all season, but in this their last game I expect them to play well. Kevin Riley has the experience at QB to manage this game. Jahvid Best not being in the lineup does hurt Cal, but his backup Shane Vereen is pretty good. Cal usually wins when they score a lot of points and usually loses when they don’t score. Cal is a lot bigger on the offensive line and should out muscle the Utes. If the running game goes well it will setup a good day for Riley and the passing game. Take Cal.
Rocketman
3* West Virginia -10.5
West Virginia is 14-1 ATS since 1997 as a home favorite of 9 1/2 to 12 points. West Virginia is allowing only 58 points per game overall and 48 points per game at home this year. Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. We'll play West Virginia for 3 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
San Antonio -8.5
The Blazers could be cursed. After losing former #1 overall DC Greg Oden several weeks ago, his backup Joel Pryzbilla blew out his knee in last night's 85-81 victory over Dallas. This leaves former 10-day contract signee Juwan Howard to start at center tonight and he played 38 minutes last night. Furthermore, the team has been out on the road ever since December 19th and this is their fourth road game in five nights. This is their second of two back to backs during that span. Brandon Roy is currently listed as doubtful. San Antonio is so much better playing with rest. This is their straight home game and they were off last night. San Antonio is our NBA **LATE UPDATE.** Take the Spurs.
POWER PLAY WINS
FRESNO ST / OREGON ST OVER 123.5
FREDDY WILLS
4-Dime POD Old Dominion -7.5
This is one of those games where the public money is flying in on the under dog for no good reason. Sure Charlotte is scoring lots of points and they are winning easily on their way to a 9-1 record. But a close look shows us they are playing lame defenses and although they are #76 in the RPI their competition and strength of schedule is significantly worse than Old Dominion who has faced an opponent with a .591 win% while Charlotte's opponents have a .377 win %. Looking over the defenses they have faced it has not been impressive. The overall strength of schedule is more than 100 point difference.
We looked into it further and we saw a road game last year for Old Dominion (they are home tonight) where they flat out dominated the game +13 rebound margin and held Charlotte to 41.7% shooting. They dominated on the perimeter shooting 50% from three. Overall they only shot 43%, but what made it a 1 point game and win after leading by 1 at half time was turnovers which they committed 18 and FTA they got to the line 6 less times and Charlotte was basically perfect from the charity stripe. Those two factors are going to be different here tonight.
First off Old Dominion a favorite to win their conference got their poor performance play out of the play when they played some top talent teams hence the strength of schedule they have regrouped and should be able to make a push for the conference title. They are #1 in the nation in points allowed, and #50 in FG% defense as well as #18 in 3PT% defense. This is going to be a wake up call for Charlotte who has not faced competition like this except their only loss to Duke by 42 points. At home ODU has a +8.1 rebound margin and that's against strong opponents while they also have a significant FTA advantage as opponents are just getting their 11.4 times. That will really hurt Charlotte's PPG on the road because they rely on 24 attempts. They only shoot 41% on the road and again against a strength of schedule that is poor to say the least. Now they go into Old Dominion where they won't win the rebound margin they most likely will shoot at a lower FG and 3PT% and that turnover battle they won a year ago they will lose here tonight. Old Dominion is +3.8 TO margin at home while Charlotte is -5.5 TO margin on the road and again that's against poor talent. Old Dominion #39 in the RPI is the best team other than Duke that this team has played. Oh also ODU is grabbing 14.4 offensive rebounds at home, when they miss they'll be getting many 2nd chance points.
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* California -3
4* Houston -10.5
3* North Carolina St./Arizona OVER 132
3* San Antonio -8.5
ASA
3* Utah +3.5
Big Al
Roadkill - Boston College
Sportsbetsnow
1 Unit Spurs -11
1 Unit Cal -2.5
O.C. Dooley
2 Units Kings +6
This is a classic “sandwich” spot for Cleveland who snapped the 13-game home winning streak of Phoenix to begin the week. As most of you have seen via the non-stop ESPN promotions, the Cavs will be playing on Christmas Day in a marquee encounter with the Lakers where Kobe Bryant will challenge LeBron James. This evening one would think that Cleveland will have problems concentrating on an opponent who does not garner all that much respect. Even though they had the NBA’s worst record a year ago where they recorded only 17 outright victories in more than six months of action, Sacramento very quietly has been one of the league’s best stories this campaign especially at HOME where the record (10-3) is outstanding. With an upset triumph late tonight the Kings would have a “non” losing record this deep in the season for the first time since 2005-2006 which is the last time this once-proud franchise has qualified for the postseason. Tyreke Evans is one of only 4 players in the entire league that is averaging at least 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists per contest. One of those 4 players to accomplish that feat is on the Cleveland roster, so the Kings actually have a player who has the ability to match King LeBron. In the past eight games Sacramento is also getting solid production from the forward slot as Jason Thompson is averaging near 19 points and 10 rebounds per contest. The big news is that Sacramento is coming off as road game a few nights ago where they pulled off the biggest comeback in 35-YEARS. All Sacramento did was pull out of a 35-point hole midway through the third quarter at Chicago so they certainly come into this contest with confidence