Billy Coleman
5* GOM MISSISSIPPI
Great Lakes Sports
4* Cal
4* Mississippi
3* Old Dominion
3* Ariz
4* New Jersey
3* Mil.
3* Pho
Winning Points
Utah Utes
Rated Picks
Milwaukee Bucks: -7.5 2 units
San Antonio Spurs: -11 2 units
Phoenix Suns: -9 2 units
Northern Iowa: -15.5 2 units
Houston: -10.5 2 units
Fresno State: +5.5 2 units
Don Wallace Sports
Houston +8
Portland +11
Atlanta +3.5
Oklahoma City +9
California -3
Score
300% Utah
Scott Rickenbach
10* (TOP PLAY) Fresno State Bulldogs (+) @ Oregon State
Fresno State is 8-1 (89%) ATS the last three years when they scored 60 points or less in their prior game. That was a low-scoring defensive battle the Bulldogs just lost at Montana but their strong defense leads the way to a bounce back here against a struggling Oregon State team. The Beavers are just 7-16 ATS the last three seasons when they are facing a team that is allowing an average of 64 points or less per game. As you can see, we’ve now got a combined 24-8 (75%) ATS trend (over a 3 year period) that is working in our favor here. Getting away from the numbers and focusing on the match-up edges here also will show why we see considerable line value here with the Bulldogs grabbing a handful of points in this one.
The Beavers will struggle just to win this game let alone get any kind of a margin. Other than wins against weak opposition like South Dakota, Cal State Bakersfield, and Mississippi Valley State, not much has gone right for Oregon State this season. The Beavers are just 2-5 in their other 7 games and the two wins came by an average margin of victory of just six points. Lapses continue to cost this team as the Beavers like to play a methodical game where precision execution is the key to getting good scoring chances. Oregon State has a problem with lapses in both physical and mental effort though and good teams are making them pay. We consider the Bulldogs, off of a loss, and playing with revenge from a loss to the Beavers last season, to definitely have the qualities necessary to upset Oregon State. Fresno State has seen 6’10 250 lb freshman center Greg Smith perform well above expectations. At the same time, sophomore forward Paul George is off to a fantastic start this season. These two combine to give the Bulldogs a very formidable frontcourt.
The Fresno State guards can take advantage of an Oregon State team that is struggling with turnovers and that is also struggling to knock down outside shots. The Beavers have particularly struggled from outside the arc and if their backcourt win this battle, which we don’t believe they can, Oregon State is in big trouble. That’s because the athleticism of the Bulldogs frontcourt causes a definite match-up problem for the Beavers. Fresno State is relishing this opportunity to get an upset win over a Pac Ten team that truly has struggled early this season. That said, with the methodical pace that the Beavers like to play at, even if they do pull out this win, it’s likely to be by a very, very short margin which is why we see such good value here with the talented Bulldogs hungry and getting a handful of points. Play Fresno State plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.
9* (TOP PLAY) Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) @ Tampa Bay
This line originally opened up with the Flyers available as high as a +115 underdog. However, the action on them has been so significant that they’re actually now favored in a few books. In any event, this play is offering exceptional line value for a play on Philly. We are well aware of the fact that the Flyers have struggled and fallen well short of expectations so far this season. However, the Lightning are certainly on powerhouse either. Before back to back wins at St Louis and New York (the Islanders), Tampa Bay had lost 9 of their last 10 games. One of those losses came after regulation so the Lighting at least earned a point. However, the other eight defeats came by a combined score of 30-9. That’s an average loss of 4-1. It shows you that the Lightning aren’t just losing games they’re getting crushed and we feel Philly is in the perfect spot here to get a huge road win.
When a team is struggling, as the Flyers certainly have been, a long road trip is often the best opportunity for a team to gel and refocus. That said, this is the beginning of six straight games away from home and what we’re hearing from the Flyers players is certainly indicative of how important they feel this first game is. They are still a very, very talented team and there has been a few changes to defensive pairings as well as the lines on offense and we feel this is going to help trigger a huge effort from the Flyers on Wednesday night. Philadelphia was booed off the ice after every period of their 4-1 home loss to Florida on Monday. They also could get a boost from Michael Leighton getting a shot between the pipes tonight. Ray Emery is still out with an injury and Brian Boucher hurt a finger in Monday’s game. When a team has struggled, a goalie change can bring a much-needed spark and Leighton has hungered for this opportunity. Although this season has not gone well so far for Philadelphia, they came into this season having gone 26-16 the last 42 times when coming off of a loss by a margin of at least two goals. After getting clobbered 4-1 Monday and getting booed of their own ice, the Flyers will respond here. Look for them to send the Lightning to a defeat and drop Tampa Bay to 2-9 this season when coming off of a game where they scored four goals or more. After a 4-2 win on Long Island Monday, look for the Lightning to drop to 1-4 in their last 5 home games! Play Philadelphia on the money line as a 9* Top Play selection.
10* (TOP PLAY) OVER the total in Sacramento vs Cleveland
This is definitely a “sandwich spot” for the Cavaliers and that is helping to drive the value here with this play on the over. Note that Cleveland is off of a big upset win at Phoenix on Monday. That Cavs victory handed the Suns their first home loss of the season. On deck for the Cavaliers is a game on Christmas Day in Los Angeles where LeBron James and Company will match-up with Kobe Bryant and Company. That makes this definitely stand out as a “trap game” for the Cavaliers. However, the reason that has us going to the over here rather than playing Sacramento is because – as solid as the Kings offense has been their defense is equally as weak! The Kings just can’t stop anybody and their especially weak on the interior which is where the Cavaliers will likely be able to exploit some match-up edges. As for the Kings offense, they flexed their muscles once again in a huge come from behind win on Monday at Chicago. That was the biggest come from behind win in the NBA in 13 years and Ime Udoka and Tyreke Evans led the way.
As you would anticipate – coming off of a huge come from behind home win and now hosting King James and Company – the Kings are fired up for this game. Sacramento is a solid 10-3 at home this season. However, even if Sacramento jumps out in front early in this game and rides a wave of emotion on their home floor, we’ve seen how James tends to put the Cavaliers on his back and lead them to victory. That is why we see this game simply turning into a high-scoring back and forth affair. The Kings won’t be able to stop a red-hot Cavaliers offense but the Kings will also continue to execute and they could catch the Cavs defense on their heels a bit as the Cavaliers are still celebrating the big win in Phoenix and have such a big game on deck with the Lakers up next on Christmas Day! Note that the Cavs upset win at Phoenix was their third outright win as an underdog this season. In each of the first two cases, their very next game flew over the total.
Note that the Kings are 11-4 to the over when they are a home underdog ranging from 3.5 to 6 points. It’s a role that Sacramento relishes and they tend to bring their best effort in these games and try to run teams right out of Arco Arena. Again, the issue here is that, while the run and gun may work fine for the Kings offense it will also play right into the hands of the Cavaliers offense. The Cavs field goal shooting percentage ranks 4th in the league while the Kings are not far behind in the #7 spot. Only one of the Kings last six home games has stayed under the total and the Kings have scored at least 100 points in 13 of their last 17 games. The Cavs have scored at least 100 points in 15 of their last 23 games and we know they will take advantage of one of the worst defenses in the league tonight! Play OVER the total in Sacramento as a 10* Top Play selection.
Executive
400 Cal
400 Ari
250 Ore St
250 Mizzou
Northcoast
Marquee Over
Kelso
50 Units UNLV -6
Street Rosenthal
*200 Utah +3
*200 Miami Heat -1
*200 Washington Wizards +7
Trey Scott
*200 Massachusetts +12.5
*200 Mississippi +12
*200 Fresno State +6
Seabass
50* Cal
50* Under
The BooooJ
25 Units California (-2.5) over Utah