SAM CLAYTON
2* ILL/IOWA UNDER 131.5
Multiple times this season, I count four, the Illini have played in nationally televised games wherein their opponent's mission statement was right up Illinois' alley --- play fast, run and gun. This worked in favor twice (Ws against UNC and Gonzaga) and against them twice (Ls vs Texas and Mizzou). That said, on the opening night of Big Ten conference play, I expect a straight-up slugfest in Iowa City. Unlike the flash and speed of the ACC and SEC, the key to succeeding in the Big Ten is defense. Lucky for us, we have two teams who have extremely similar goals tonight at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Bruce Weber has been constantly saying that his guys cannot be an elite team until they turn things up a notch on D. There's no better place to start that operative on the road in your conference opener playing outside of your comfort zone. I expect a focused, full fledged Illini effort on both ends of the floor tonight against a woeful shooting Iowa team (.435 FG%, 188th in NCAA) that is still trying to gel offensively under first year head coach Fran McCaffrey. And while the Hawkeyes don't exactly scare in the points department, it's the PACE they prefer that stands out; the Hawkeyes frustrate higher octane teams into a lull.
Iowa basketball, especially in this transition phrase, is UGLY basketball. It's a hard nosed style of play that gets good offenses out of rhythm. Iowa wants absolutely no part of a shootout with the Illini and I would not be surprised to see them waste 20-25 seconds per possession in an attempt to control the tempo. That's the only real chance of keeping this baby from reaching blowout status and that has to be the key gameplan for Iowa tonight. It's the only way. Also, both teams play exceptional perimeter defense, holding their opponents under 30 percent from downtown. The Hawkeyes are surprisingly a long, physical team that loves to bump and face up. They will let the Illini live and die with the three ball, but even those shots will be contested. Illinois holds an advantage in the athleticism department, it's rare that Iowa gets outworked or outhustled.
For as long as I remember, the pace of this series has been taxing, especially in Iowa City. 7 of the last 8 contests at Carver-Hawkeye have gone UNDER the posted total. Ironically, last year's game was eerily similar --- Illinois -4.5 and 132 --- and the Illini won 57-49. Lately, Weber's boys are in a bit of a funk offensively and it's been no secret they aren't practicing well. Iowa isn't exactly a contender in the Big Ten this season, but they simply cannot be overlooked. This is a dangerous game for Illinois. They are going to face a similar pace that UIC brought to the table and we all saw how that game turned out. I have no real lean on the side, think either Illinois wins by 10 or Iowa takes it outright, yet I still am confident that both of those scenarios cater to a nice UNDER play.
BEN BURNS
10* Shocker GOY Arizona
8* Ottawa
8* San Jose
8* Detroit/Dallas Under 5.5
EXECUTIVE
300% Arizona +5
250% E. Carolina +7.5
250% Baylor Pk
Brandon Lang
20 Dime Washington Huskies -3.5
David Malinsky
4* L.A. LAKERS/NEW ORLEANS UNDER 191
On Tuesday we told the tale of how we have been waiting to get in play in settings like this with the Lakers – their terrific early numbers on offense were as much a result of a weak schedule than their own abilities, while the defense will get much better now that Andrew Bynum is in the rotation. So after cashing that easy Under ticket at San Antonio we get in play again.
The Lakers have only played six games all season against teams that currently sport winning records. They scored 112 at Denver in the first of those encounters, which is what can happen at the pace the Nuggets play at. But in the last five outings, two against the Bulls, and also vs. the Jazz, Heat and Spurts, they averaged just 88.0 per game, and those five played Under by a collective 82 points, or 16.4 per outing. The bottom line is that they are not a difficult team to guard when the opposition has a chance to put a game plan together – stopping Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol is not easy, but when you can back off of Ron Artest and Derek Fisher there are opportunities to at least slow the stars down.
New Orleans brings such a defense, and such a focus. The Hornets are #5 on our best defense charts, and are allowing just 89.9 per game on this court. Their focus should absolutely be there, having had Tuesday off to stew over having turned in their worst defensive performance of the season on Monday night at Minnesota, and that turns this into a grinder of an affair that brings a slow pace, and intense defense from two teams that are both off of embarrassing double-figure losses.
KELSO
25 Units Maryland
5 Units Okla St
5 Units Illinois25 Units N. Iowa
15 Units USC +3.5
10 Units Illinois -4
5 Units N Arizona +6
5 Units Rhode Island -1
Underdog
Arizona
3G Sports
10* Illinois
PPP
4% Baylor
3% Oklahoma State
2% Maryland
Scott Spreitzer
10* Illinois / Baylor Over
Fairway Jay
20* Montana St
Matt Fargo
Illinois / Baylor Over
Arizona
ASA
Arizona vs Oklahoma State
Pick: Arizona +6.5
Another “motivation” type situation here. Oklahoma State is not crazy about being in the Alamo Bowl. They hosted Oklahoma in the season finale in what was the biggest home game for OSU in over a decade (probably longer). A win would have sent them to the Big 12 Championship game and a date with Nebraska. A BCS bowl bid was within reach. Instead, they were embarrassed as Oklahoma rocked the Cowboys 47-41 in a game that OSU was in catch up mode throughout. It was a downer day for the Cowboys and this is a downer bowl for them. Arizona is in a different boat. First of all, they lost their bowl game 33-0 last year against Nebraska. That almost always is a strong motivating factor for the following year’s bowl game, should the team make it to the post season. Wildcat head coach Mike Stoops was extremely disappointed in his team that day saying the players didn’t respect the bowl they were in. He will have them ready here. He’ll also get some good advice from his brother Bob Stoops who led his Sooners to a win over OSU to end the season. We’re getting some nice line value here with Arizona even with the move. This spread opened +6 and is down to +5.5 and even +5 at some spots. Many will be on OSU here as they’ll simply see that Arizona struggled down the stretch. This was a team that was given a solid chance to compete for the top spot in the Pac 10 this year. They finished 7-5, however three of their five losses were by 3-points or less. The only two that came by more than that margin were on the road against the two top teams in the league, both who are in BCS bowls (Stanford & Oregon). Both offenses can put points on the board. However, Arizona has the much better stop unit allowing a full 80 YPG less than Oklahoma State. The Cats allow opponents only 4.9 yards per play. While we don’t expect them to shut down the OSU offense, they will slow them some. And remember, Arizona is more than capable of scoring points here against a Cowboy defense that allowed 28 points or more seven times this year. We feel that Arizona is better than their record indicates. They are getting “extra” points here (line should be +3 or less in our opinion) against a team that had bigger bowls on their mind late in the year. We call for the upset as ARIZONA wins this one outright.
Mike Lineback
Grizzlies/Kings Under
Los Angeles Clippers
Crown City Sports
5* Illinois -1.5
5* Arizona +4
5* Los Angeles Kings -118
5* Minnesota Wild +118
5* Carolina Hurricanes +128