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50 Dime - NUGGETS
Was so glad to see the Nuggets struggle with the Bulls in Chicago last night, and if not for a micro-second worth of time, the Nuggets would find themselves in the middle of a three-game losing streak. Lucky for them the NBA has instant replay, and they walk out of Chicago with a 90-89 win. Another sloppy performance offensively for Denver, but you absolutely know this can't continue. We all know what the Nuggets are capable of doing on offense, and it's only going to be a matter of time before they bust out for one of those 110+ point performances. Well, I believe that night is tonight.
Other than maybe the center position, the Nuggets are clearly better at every other position on the floor and should win this thing by at least 10 points tonight, if not more. Yes, I'm aware that the Bucks are 3-2 overall and 2-0 at home at the Bradley Center, but a closer look at their competition finds rather soft opponents, for the most part. Three of the five teams Milwaukee has played so far are under .500 and two of them are 1-7 (Minnesota and New York) for a combined opponents' record of 12-25. Denver, on the other hand, has played 8 games already and the combined record of their opponents is 23-25... and although it's not great, it's a lot better than 12-25... especially if you consider their last three opponents have a combined record of 15-6.
The last time these two hooked up in Milwaukee was February 22 of 2009. Milwaukee won that game 120-117, but this was their lineup back then... Charlie Villanueva, Richard Jefferson, Ramon Sessions, Joe Alexander and Francisco Elson. Those five alone poured in 94 of the Bucks' 120 points that night. Tonight's lineup will look nothing like that. Villanueva is in Detroit. Jefferson is in San Antonio. Alexander is hurt and won't play. Sessions is in Minnesota and Elson is currently on the inactive list. So the lineup Denver sees tonight will be completely different, and a LOT less experienced than last year's. Let's take a look.
First off we have C Andrew Bogut. He's the only proven player on this squad... a player who can score and eat up space in the middle, grabbing boards and blocking shots. He's a true difference maker and cannot be taken lightly by this Nuggets squad. After that, however, is where it gets dicey for HC Scott Skiles and his Milwaukee Bucks. Here were your five starters from Milwaukee's last two games... and please try not to laugh. Charlie Bell, Brandon Jennings, Carlos Delfino, Hakim Warrick, and Andrew Bogut. So, other than Bogut, how many of those names do you even recognize? Seriously, this starting lineup pales in comparison to Denver's... and it's not even close.
Denver will trot out their usual suspects... Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Nene Hilario, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith... not to mention reserves Anthony Carter, Aaron Afflalo, Ty Lawson, Renaldo Balkman. Folks, this team is freaking loaded, and this is just the type of matchup Denver has been needing since coming on this road trip. After games with Chicago, Miami and Atlanta, it's going to be very nice for them to visit a team like Milwaukee... a team that is clearly rebuilding. It's going to take nothing short of a miracle for Milwaukee to keep this game within 10 points tonight... they just don't have the horses to keep up.
And for those of you telling me that Denver is going to come in "tired", having played five straight games away from home... give me a break. Who cares? It's not like this is April. This is November... these guys are fresh. Shoot, they could probably handle it just fine even if it was April, but just knowing this is the start of the season makes me know that this argument doesn't hold any water. Denver's bench is deep and they're starting to get everyone back from injury and suspension. This could be the best lineup they've thrown at a team all season --- poor Milwaukee. I really do feel sorry for them today.
Despite being held under 100 points in two of their last three games, the Nuggets still average 107 PPG as compared to Milwaukee's 90 points per game. Denver also shoots better from the field and better from the line, not to mention the fact they don't turn the ball over as much as Milwaukee does. Denver is one of the best in the NBA in converting turnovers into points, and if this games goes how I think it will, Denver could end up with around 30-35 points off Milwaukee turnovers.
Denver has covered 13 times in the last 17 games with Milwaukee and has covered 17 of the last 24 overall, dating back to last year. Coming off of a few ugly performances, you know they want to end this road trip in style... with a concnving win. They should have no problem doing. Forget the football tonight... the money is to be made on the hardwood tonight, a I'm the only capper you should trust. Top play of the month in the NBA on the Denver Nuggets.
DB Sports Consultants
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