Sam Clayton
BUTLER AT NORTHWESTERN
Great spot for the Bulldogs, who come off a less-than-impressive opening night performance against Davidson. There was no doubt in my mind that Butler would have the jitters on opening night what with the highest pre-season ranking in team history aligned with their ball club. Still, even though they struggled miserably out of the gate, Brad Stevens' team showed no signs off panic. The Bulldogs steamrolled on a 19-4 run through halftime and then sealed the envelope with a huge 12-0 run in the game's closing minutes. Butler's ability to 'turn it on' came centerfold and when the 'Dogs had their foot on the gas, there was no looking back.
Butler returns every single player from last year's memorable season and all five starters know each others' games extremely well. The Bulldogs are way ahead as far as chemistry is concerned and with their unselfish style of play, this team is poised for a deep March Madness run. Junior forward Matt Howard (6-8, 230) anchors the low post for Butler and he forms the quintessential inside-outside combo with Gordon Hayward. Hayward burst onto the scene last year averaging 13 points and 7 rebounds as a freshman and his combination of size, sweet stroke and sheer athleticism (you should see him cut to the rim) makes him one of the best young players in the entire nation.
I usually like Northwestern playing at home, but not under these circumstances. Their superstar leader Kevin Coble is out with a season-ending foot injury and sweet-shooting Craig Moore is no longer in the purple and white thanks to last spring's graduation. These two departures have crippled Northwestern's once-promising chances to reach the NCAAs for the first time in school history and they've left Bill Carmody's offense without a true shining star. Jeremy Nash scored 20 points and Luka Mirkovic had 10 in NU's opener against Northern Illinois, but half of those points came from the charity stripe. Butler is no slouch defensively and they will not give up free points. Hayward, Howard and Willie Veasley are all long, tremendous defenders that have the length and athleticism to defend the three-ball (the NU trademark), and they will make Nash and Michael Thompson make plays off the dribble.
We've got great value with a Top 10 squad playing on the road against a weakened Northwestern team that's lost their heart and soul (Coble) and doesn't have the depth to keep up. Butler is so versatile, so well-rounded, and they are able to beat you in every single way. Run and gun, half court sets, three balls -- you name it, they can do it. I just don't think a frustrated Jeremy Nash can piece together a good game on both sides of the ball (God help him should he have to guard Hayward) and there are some serious matchup problems for the slower, less talented Wildcats.
PICK: Butler -4 - 20 dimes
David Banks
Clev/Wash Over
Kyle Bales
Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) Redhawks
We played against this Buffalo team their last game (15* Ohio Bobcats +3.5 and 10* ML +110), WR Naaman Roosevelt, their leading receiver, had 165 yards in the game and scored three touchdowns. He will be out for the Bulls tonight and I don't see this offense going anywhere. The Miami (OH) Redhawks are ranked 90 on offense, averaging 339.7 yards per game, 68.3 yards rushing and 271.5 yards passing so far this season. Redhawks QB Zac Dysert simply had a bad game last week. Dysert turned the ball over four times in the game, including three interceptions. However Dysert was coming off a great three-game stretch. In his previous game, he passed for 426 yards in a loss Nov. 5 at Temple. The only player at Miami to throw for more yards in a game was Ben Roethlisberger, who did it three times. Dysert threw for 1,118 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception in his three previous games coming into the Bowling Green contest. Against Temple, he led Miami from an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter to take a lead before the Owls rallied to win. Miami’s defensive in the loss last week was credible despite the lopsided score. The RedHawks held the Falcons to 349 yards of total offense and recovered two fumbles. Bowling Green’s offense came into the game averaging almost 400 yards a game. Don't get me wrong, both of these teams are bad. But with Buffalo's main weapon out, I love the Redhawks at home tonight!
Prediciton:
Buffalo - 17
Miami (OH) - 24
Play:
15* Miami (OH) +3.5
10* Miami ML +160
Honorable Mention:
Ball St. +14.5
Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - BALL STATE CARDINALS
10 DIMER - NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
20 DIMER - BALL STATE CARDINALS
No doubt Dan LeFevour and his Central Michigan mates are going to win this game, but this one will be closer than expected as a couple of factors play into backing Ball State as the double-digit home dog.
For one thing, Ball State gave a very solid Northern Illinois team all they could last week on the road in a 26-20 loss, but cover as the double-digit dog. The Cards have gone 5-2 this season against the spread as the underdog, and I see no reason they won't improve to 6-2 with the points tonight.
Speaking of Northern Illinois, that is who the Chippewas have up next at home, and that could very well decide the MAC West Division crown, so as you can see, the Chipps could be looking ahead just a bit.
This is Central's 4th road game in the last 5 weeks, and I don't care what you say, that has got to take its toll eventually.
Finally, Central Michigan was 0-3-1 against the spread last season as a road favorite, and while they are 2-1 in that role this season, tonight's win will NOT be by the required impost.
Take the points.
10 DIMER - NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Deja Vu?
Last November these schools played at Butler, with the Bulldogs winning it 57-53 as the 4-point favorite.
Similar price tonight, but this time the game is being played in Evanston, and Bill Carmoody's Wildcats are a better team this go'round.
Both schools opened their seasons with wins, but I am highly impressed with the 'Cats 77-55 thumping of Northern Illinois. Remember, this is a Northwestern team that did upset both Michigan State, and Purdue last season in conference play!
Early "signature" win acoming for the Wildcats tonight. Take the points!
Wayne Root
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Saint Louis Billikens
UNLV Rebels
RAS
2 UNITS Loyola Marymount -2.5
1 UNIT Central Michigan -1 1.00
1 UNIT Missouri State +5.5
Bryan Leonard
NCAA Hoops Steamroller
Cornell at Massachusetts
The Minutemen are a young squad with just one senior and three juniors on the roster. They were very impatient in their opening season loss at Central Florida and we can see a repeat here. Only one player over 6'4" saw significant minutes against the Golden Knights and that could be a problem here against a veteran Cornell squad with a 7 footer in the middle.
The Big Red return all 5 starters from a very good team from a year ago. They just beat Alabama on the road for their first win over an SEC squad in 40 years. They will not be intimidated by the Mullins Center crowd tonight. As opposed to the Minutemen Cornell has just three underclassmen on the roster. Four players average 14 points or more so you can't focus on just one scorer defensively.
We'll gladly back the better team who has shown the ability to win on the road as opposed to a young team trying to find themselves.
PLAY CORNELL
David Malinsky
4* Oklahoma City +12.5
Wunderdog
Florida at Buffalo
3 units Buffalo -210
The Sabres are out of the gate fast and have caught fire as they have raced to three straight wins, and have won seven of their last nine at home. They have been playing great defense, and getting superb net play as the Sabres have allowed two goals or less in 12 of their 17 games thus far. The Panthers have played three straight shootouts, losing the most recent one, and already own a 5-2 setback at home to the Sabres this season, which runs the losing skid against Buffalo to four straight. Overall, they have just one win to show for their last seven trips to Buffalo. The Sabres have it going, and this foe has not proved to be on their level of late. Buffalo gets the call here.
Dallas at Detroit
3 units Dallas +150
3 units UNDER 5.5
The Red Wings are no easy out at home as they stand at 71-1 for the season, with the only loss a game that was deemed a home game in Sweden. The Stars however, seem to find a way of staying in the game against everyone, with five games already ending via the shootout and three others decided in OT. Lately that has been ringing even more true with each of the last five being decided by a single goal. The games have all been tight, not allowing more than three in any of them, or scoring more than three. What the Stars have going for them is that they have been a thorn in Detroit's side as Dallas has won five of the last seven meetings between these two, so they will come here with confidence. They have played good, crisp hockey of late with all five of their last five games going UNDER. Detroit is 19-9-4 to the UNDER off of three or more days rest in their last 32. I like Dallas and the UNDER here.
Dallas at Detroit
5 units Dallas +1.5
The Dallas Stars have been playing tight games all season long, and even more so lately with all five of their most recent games decided by a single goal. They have also done as well as anyone against Detroit as they have won five of the last seven meetings outright, and that includes all three played between these clubs last year. Getting the plus side of the puckline in this situation carries some value, so the Stars get the call on the puckline.
Phoenix at Minnesota
3 units Minnesota -140
The Minnesota Wild certainly need to get themselves straightened out on the road where they are a disappointing 2-9-2. They take on a completely different look at home where they stand at 5-2. The scoring has been awful on the road where they have averaged just over two goals per game, but at home they have elevated that by just about a full goal scoring three per contest. The Coyotes started very fast, but their recent play has not been on the same level. This is a team that has gone from outscoring their first 13 opponents by 10 goals, to one that has been outscored by eight in their last seven. That is almost a two-goal change in team performance. The Wild has been a bear at home as their last 12 on home ice as a favorite has produced 10 wins, so I'll go with Minnesota here.
Colorado at Edmonton
3 units Edmonton -130
The Avalanche has been the early surprise in the NHL. After finishing dead last in the Western Conference with 69 points a year ago, they opened this season with a bang, but have decidedly slipped back to '08-09 form recently. The Avalanche has now dropped three of four for the first time all season, and has allowed 18 goals in the process. When they were playing with the hot-hand, they handed Edmonton a 3-0 loss on the road, but the start of the slide began with a loss at home to Edmonton 5-3. The Avalanche certainly hasn't taken advantage of playing a team with a losing record at just 9-22 in their last 31. The Oilers meanwhile, are taking the money as a favorite from -110 to -150 to a 27-10 mark in their last 37. Edmonton gets the call.
Philadelphia at Los Angeles
3 units Philadelphia -120
5 units UNDER 5.5
The Flyers went flat for awhile after opening the season with three wins, but are surging now having dropped just a 3-2 decision to Buffalo in their last seven games. The three goals allowed to Buffalo represent the only team able to wiggle more than two pucks through the net during the seven-game stretch. The Kings have had to fight for everything they have gotten lately with a pair of shootout wins in their last two outings, but this is a team that has lost by two goals or more in three of their last six. The offense has been flat producing just 13 in the six games, or just about two per night. This is the Kings fourth game in six days, and they have played UNDER in four of the last five in that situation, and four of the last five in this series have as well. One team is getting great net play, the other is struggling to score. I'll go with Philadelphia and the UNDER.
Dwayne Bryant
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Under 199
Just like last night's total winner with the Clippers and Hornets going Over, the sharps have pounded the UNDER here. This line opened at 202 and then the smart money nailed it. I admittedly bet this at the wrong time and got a worse number than you will get because I didn't wait for the public to drive this number back up. The Clippers just played last night and this is their third road game in four nights, so fatigue could very well be a factor for LA. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Clippers' last 5 games playing without rest. Memphis has gone UNDER in three of their four home games this season, with the average total points scored being just 187. My numbers have this game at 194, so I'll follow the sharps and take the UNDER.
BRANDON LANG
20 Dime - Central Michigan
5 Dime - Atlanta
20 DIME - CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS - (if line is 14 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and only lay 14.) - Going to ride the Chippewas again tonight.
First of all, love the line move here as this line opened CMU -17, and has moved all the way down to 14. My guess is the public is jumping on Ball State because of their impressive effort last week versus Northern Illinois.
Trust me folks, NIU is not to be confused with Central Michigan.
NIU is one dimensional. The rely on the run, and are not known for putting up big points and forcing you to open up your offense. Fact of the matter is, Ball State matched up really well with NIU.
They don't match up at all with CMU.
Last week after falling behind Toledo 14-7 on the opening play of the 2nd quarter on National TV, Central Michigan exploded for 49 unanswered points for a 56-28 rout.
I am talking about a Toledo team that has the 22nd overall offense in the country coming in and they couldn't keep up with this CMU offense.
So my question tonight is this. How is Ball State going to match points with the 109th ranked offense because trust me folks they are not going to shut down CMU.
CMU is smart enough to force Ball State to throw to beat them and for my dollar I don't think Tanner Justice is up for the task tonight.
Ball State was thrilled with his 11 of 19 performance for 139 yards last week at Northern Illinois, but that isn't going to be enough to get it done here.
I really feel people are missing this game because they feel Northern Illinois and Central Michigan are about even since they will be playing next week for the MAC West title, but quite frankly that is like comparing apples to oranges.
Unlike Northern Illinois, CMU is an offensive juggernaut right now, peaking at just the right time playing their best football of the entire year.
CMU has covered every game this year with exception to their 20-13 road win at Buffalo laying 9 1/2 and at Boston College as a 5 1/2 point dog losing 31-10.
This is the class of the entire MAC conference playing an inferior opponent who has one win this year against Eastern Michigan. For the life of me I can't see Ball State staying within 21 points of Central Michigan tonight.
I have a Central Michigan offense that has put up over 400 yards total offense in all 6 of their MAC games this year and in 3 of those they put up over 500 yards total offense against Akron, Eastern Michigan and Toledo.
The bottom line is Ball State will not be able to hold up defensively for 60 minutes in this game against CMU and they are going to have to match points and they don't have the offense to do that against a pretty darn good CMU stop unit.
CMU is ranked 33rd stopping the run, 21st in scoring defense and that does not bode well for a average at best Ball State offense.
I will jump all over CMU tonight, go against the line move and look for a 3 touchdown win for Central tonight.
5 DIME - ATLANTA HAWKS - I said on Monday, you don't start rolling into Boston as a double-digit road dog, and beat the Celtics by double digits unless you are playing your best basketball of the year.
I jumped on the Hawks against the Blazers on Monday night and they got it done for me in OT, and I will come right back with them here against the Heat.
I said going into Monday that Atlanta was on a tear since their double digit loss at Charlotte, a game I had the Bobcats as a 5 dime winner.
With exception of that no show by Atlanta, they have now covered every single game this year. Think about that folks.
Atlanta has won their 4 home games this year by 11 over the Pacers, 11 over the Wizards, 25 over Denver, 23 over the Hornets and covering the 3 1/2 over the Blazers.
Now they catch the Heat off a home loss to the Thunder and playing only their 3rd road game of the year, the fewest among any NBA team this year.
Perfect set up for the Hawks as they roll to a double digit win.
5 DIME - UTAH STATE AGGIES - Ok, so let me get this straight...
Idaho goes into Utah as a 10 point underdog and beats the Utes outright 94-87 and now Utah is laying 3 1/2 to the best team in the WAC in Utah State?
Utah lost their starting center in Nevill along with their other 3 top scorers, so as you can see, not an easy task losing your top 4 scorers from a year ago as you can see from their outright loss to Idaho.
Just like the Vandals, Utah State returns 4 starters from last years squad that combined for 186 starts and 239 games played as a group in their Utah State careers.
Plus they get back 6' 8" sophmore Nate Bendall, who played for the Aggies his freshman year, went on a mission and now comes back home.
He spent a year at Salt Lake Community College where he led them to the NJCAA National championship. The kid can flat out play.
The leader of this crew is senior point guard Jared Quayle, who scored in double digits in 24 of their final 28 games last year and along with Tyler Newbold won't miss a beat in the backcourt.
In their season opener they rolled into Weber State as a 3 point road favorite and delivered a 66-60 win and now off that tune up game get a crack at their in-state rival Utah.
There is no doubt in my mind that for one of the few times Utah State is flat out the better team and I fully expect them to do just as Idaho did, deliver the outright win.
FREE SELECTION - BUFFALO-MIAMI-OHIO OVER
ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
3 on Ball St +15.5
3 on the over 52 Buf/mia gm
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: BALL STATE
Don’t be fooled by Ball State’s 1-9 record. The Cardinals have been playing much better football since the start of October. They were competitive in losses to Toledo (37-30 at home), Temple (24-19 on the road), Ohio (20-17 at home) and Northern Illinois (26-20 on the road), covering the pointspread in the latter three. Keep in mind that Temple (8-2 overall, 6-0 in the MAC) and Ohio (7-3, 5-1 in the MAC) are the top two teams in the MAC’s East Division, while Northern Illinois (7-3, 5-1 in the MAC) is second to Central Michigan in the West Division. So Ball State lost to three of the league’s top four teams by a total of 14 points, and two of those games were on the road … and tonight, the Cardinals are catching that exact number (two touchdowns) at home against the MAC’s best team, Central Michigan.
Now, ordinarily, I’d still have tough time going against Central Michigan even at this price, simply because the Chippewas are very clearly the class of the MAC. But this is a very unique situation, and here’s why: Next week, Central Michigan hosts Northern Illinois, and no matter happens in this game tonight, the Chippewas at the very least will be playing for the division title next week. And if Northern Illinois loses at Ohio on Saturday – a very distinct possibility – then a simple victory tonight gives Central Michigan the division crown.
The point: There’s a very, very good chance that the Chippewas sleepwalk through this game tonight – or at the very least, play things close to the vest and make sure they leave Ball State healthy just in case next week’s game against Northern Illinois does have meaning. At the same time, is there any reason to think the Cardinals won’t come to play? Just like they came to play against Temple, Northern Illinois and Ohio? Of course they’ll come to play. After all, it’s Ball State’s final home game … it’s on national TV … it’s against the league’s best team … and it is, basically, the Cardinals’ bowl game. You better believe they’re showing up fully focused, fully motivated and with a throw-caution-to-the-wind game plan.
One more to factor to consider: Central Michigan is hitting the road for the fourth time in its last five games, fifth time in its last seven games and the seventh time in 11 games this season. In those six previous road outings, the Chippewas have four wins and two losses. The two losses were double-digit defeats, while the four victories came by 2, 7, 11 and 14 points. Doesn’t seem all that far-fetched that Ball State can stay within two touchdowns, now does it?
Throw in the fact that the Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when catching 10½ points or more and 4-0 ATS in their last four as a home underdog in that price range, and this pointspread becomes even more enticing.
Bottom line: I know the records suggest otherwise, but because of the unique circumstances – a meaningless game for Central Michigan; a fired-up Ball State team playing its final home game on national TV – I have little doubt this is going to be a competitive ball game from start to finish. And while I do believe Central Michigan will pull away late walk off with a win, I’m also certain Ball State will stay within this spread the entire way. Take the points.
ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
3 Units Ball St +15.5
3 Units Buf/Mia Over 52
Kevin Rogers
Thunder at Magic
Pick: Over 189.5
The Magic were thoroughly embarrassed by the Thunder the last time these two teams met in Oklahoma City on November 8th, as Orlando lost by 28. To cut the Magic some slack, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Ryan Anderson all were out for Orlando in that debacle. All three of those players are back for the Magic tonight, but the team is without point guard Jameer Nelson, who is out with a torn meniscus in his left knee. The Thunder, meanwhile, are coming off a 100-83 victory at Miami last night, as OKC fits into a nice OVER play tonight. Oklahoma City is 13-4 to the OVER since the start of last season playing on the road with no rest, and with this being a fourth game in five nights, don't expect much defense from the Thunder. The Magic will have plenty of rage tonight after the horrific loss at the Ford Center, and while the side may be a bit much, I'll take the OVER tonight.