Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* Bowling Green
Dr Bob
3* TOLEDO (-10.0) 33 Bowling Green 12
Toledo is coming off a horrible 30-65 loss at Northern Illinois, but the Rockets have a long history of bouncing back at home, where they are 18-3 ATS after a loss – including 4-0 ATS under coach Dave Clawson. Toledo also applies to a 108-53-3 ATS humiliation bounce-back situation and a 99-30-2 ATS statistical match up indicator. In addition to the favorable technical analysis, my math model gives the Rockets a 60.7% chance of covering at -10 points based solely on the math. Toledo is a pretty decent team by MAC standards, averaging 5.3 yards per play and allowing 5.6 yppl while rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively after accounting for strength of schedule. A team that is just a bit below average from the line of scrimmage should have no trouble beating Bowling Green by a comfortable margin. The Falcons’ offense is horrible, as that unit is among the worst running teams in the nation (84 yards per game at 3.1 yards per rushing play, against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) while quarterback Matt Schilz has averaged just 4.9 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppp to an average team. Bowling Green is 1.7 yards per play worse than average offensively, giving Toledo a huge 1.5 yppl advantage when the Falcons have the ball.
Bowling Green is terrible defensively too, allowing 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so Toledo’s offense (0.3 yppl worse than average) has a 0.5 yppl advantage. Toledo’s starting quarterback Austin Dantin is out, but backup Terrance Owens has performed better so far and his 7 touchdown passes to just 1 interception (on 79 pass attempts) is better than Dantin’s 7 TD’s and 8 picks. In addition to being much better from the line of scrimmage Toledo is less likely to turn the ball over and they’re only slightly worse in special teams. My math model projects a 424 total yards to 258 total yards advantage for Toledo in this game and that should be more than enough to win by double-digits on a field where they generally do very well when motived by a loss. I’ll take Toledo in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars as a favorite of more than 11 points.
Opinion
Miami-Ohio (-10½) 31 AKRON 16
Akron is winless on the season and the Zips are just 2-9 ATS at home and 2-10 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .500 or higher since last season. My math model gives the Redhawks a profitable 54.8% chance of covering at -10 ½ points and I’d consider Miami-Ohio a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less.
Bobby Maxwell
500-Unit NBA Early Season Slam Dunk - New Orleans Hornets
New Orleans gets an immediate shot at revenge when the Mavericks visit the Hornets for the second game of this home-and-home series. I’ll lay the points and play the Hornets tonight as they will finish the job they should have finished on Monday.
The Hornets suffered their first loss of the season on Monday when Dallas scored a 98-95 win, using a 21-8 run down the stretch to overcome a 10-point deficit and with their fourth straight game. Jason Kidd had three 3-pointers and Dirk Nowitzki had eight points down the stretch to give the Mavs the win.
New Orleans has won six straight against Dallas in the Big Easy and they are anxious to get another shot at the Mavericks. At home against Dallas, the Hornets have shot 50.8 percent and average 108.5 points per game in the last six contests, winning the last four by double-digits. Chris Paul usually has a monster game when the Mavs come calling, averaging 28.7 points and 10.8 assists in the six home contests.
In this series, the home team is on a 5-1-2 ATS streak and the Hornets are 4-0 ATS in New Orleans. The Hornets come in on ATS surges of 10-0-1 overall, 7-0-1 against the Western Conference, 6-0 at home and 3-0-1 after a day off.
Let’s go ahead and lay the points and look for New Orleans to shoot the ball well and pull away for a 10-point win at least.
James Patrick Sports
5* LA Lakers
Rocky Sheridan
5* Phoenix Suns +9
5* San Antonio Spurs -7.5
Rocketman
5* Delaware +4.5
4* Pennsylvania -4
3* Tennessee State +10.5
4* San Jose Sharks -125
3* New York Rangers -115
3* Pittsburgh Penguins -120
3* Buffalo +165
401kSports
3* MIAMI(OH) -9.5 over Akron
The zips are 0-10 and they are dead last in total offense. They have only scored 20+ points in three games this season. Those three games are the only games where they have totaled over 300+ yards of offense. They are also #107 versus the pass and #113 in total defense. The Redskins are 6-4 on the year and their four losses are against some pretty good competition losing to Florida, Missouri, Cincinnati and Ohio. They are ranked #40 on defense and they are in the top 40 in passing offense. The only negative is that this is their fifth road game in the last six weeks, but the Zips are a very limited team on offense so Miami should have no problem here tonight. Also Miami still has a shot to win the MAC title with a little help. Lets back them here tonight. Miami 27 Akron 10
Jimmy Boyd
5* Pistons +8
Brandon Lang
Bowling Green +10.5
RAS
Mississippi -5
Loyola Marymount +7
Marist +14
Brett Atkins
15 Dime Hornets
5 Dime Bulls
Craig Davis
40 Dime Teaser Miami Oh & Bowling Green
15 Dime Miami Heat
10 Dime Wisconsin Milwaukie
10 Dime USC
Jay McNeil
10 Dime Bowling Green/Toledo Over
Joel Tyson
20 Dime Bowling Green
Trace Adams
1000♦ Bowling Green
500♦ San Antonio
Rocky Sheridan
5* Phoenix Suns +9
5* San Antonio Spurs -7.5
5* Cornell -4.5
5* Utah State +7
5* Murray State +5
Bob Balfe
Miami Ohio / Akron Under 48
Bowling Green / Toledo Under 54
Detroit +8
Middle Tenn Under 136.5
Chuck O'Brien
20 Dime Miami Ohio
Anthony Redd
30 Dime Akron
20 Dime Akron 1st Half