Northcoast
Marquee - Toledo Over
Freddy Wills
Bowling Green +10.5
Scott Delaney
100 Dime Miami Ohio
Thank Ohio University for this play right here. The Bobcats went into Philadelphia and dismantled Temple last night. Like it was nothing. And by doing so, Miami-Ohio's motivation went up a notch, knowing it will meet the Bobcats next week, quite possibly for the MAC East Division title. Miami-Ohio might not boast a high-scoring offense - it ranks 103rd in the nation - but it does have the 32nd-best passing game in the nation, and could very well look like Hawaii, the nation's leader, against Akron's 113th-ranked pass defense, and overall worst scoring defense. Now, there are some who believe Akron has motivation also, that would be to not be the only team in the country to finish win-less this season. Easier said than done, though, as Akron just might be the worst team in the nation overall. Yes, even worse than New Mexico and UNLV. No pun intended, but Akron has no zip this year, ranking near the bottom of every major statistical category in Division I FBS football. And at 0-10, the Zips are losing by an average margin of 23.7 points. Akron is arguably the worst offensive team in the nation, ranking in the bottom 20 in the nation in rushing yards, passing yards, total offense (last) and scoring offense. The Zips have a combined 17 rushing/passing touchdowns. They came close to earning their first win, but lost in double overtime to Ball State on Nov. 6, 37-30. They've given no less than 30 points their last four times out and in eight of their 10 games this season. Checking the betting trends, Miami-O is on winning runs of 5-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in conference play, 5-2 on the highway and 16-5 when the visit teams with a losing home record. On the flip-side, the Zips are on ATS slides of 2-8 against winning teams, 3-13 on turf, 1-5 when catching points in this range at home, 0-6 at home and 0-5 after an ATS cover. The favorite has also covered five of the last six meetings. Lay the chalk, and don't forget to buy the half point down under 10 points.
Trace Adams
1000♦ Bowling Green
500♦ San Antonio
Yes Toledo has the better record by far, but the majority of the Rockets wins were acaumualted by starting QB Austin Dantin who is now sidelined with a cracked collarbone. In his place Terrance Owens is just untrustworthy to back laying double-digits (Toledo -10 as I type this).
Bowling Green has been the play in this series, winning and coverring the last 3 series meetings. The Falcons are also a solid 20-7-1 against the spread their last 28 lined road games.
The Falcons may be just 2-8 straight up this season, but 4 of those losses have come by 3-points or less. That fact tells me taking the points is definitily the way to go in this MAC battle.
Close one tonight at the Glass Bowl, take BG plus the points.
NBA winner on the rested Spurs to pull away from the hot Bulls.
Chicago increased their winning streak to 4 in a row with a win last night in Houston. That is the Bulls first road win of the year in 3 tries, and I have a feeling Chicago may be a little slow-footed come the end of this game in Alamo Town.
San Antonio has been off a couple of days since their 7th straight win at Oklahoma City, and the Spurs are well aware that Chicago has won and covered the last pair of series meetings versus the Spurs.
Prior to the Bulls 2-game "uprising", San Antone had won and covered the previous 4 series meetings.
Looks to me like Coach Pop's team is out of the blocks strong early this season, and with the Bulls bound to be a little fatigued come the later stages of this one, I will lay the wood with the host to cover.
Joel Tyson
20 Dime Bowling Green
I know the Falcons are just 2-8 straight up this year, but this is a team that usually hangs around, as 4 of their losses have come by a field goal or less. With Toledo having secured enough wins to be bowl-eligible, and with starting QB Dantin sidelined with a broken collarbone, I will look for the Falcons to once again be close to the winner's circle. Rockets get the win, Falcons get the cover!
10 Dime Columbia
Steve Lavin's first home game as Redstorm coach, and normally I would be all over the Johnnies in this situation, but a few factors negate any "emotion" here, as the Redstorm just played Monday night at 2am eastern at St. Marys in California!!!! This line is also a little inflated due to the high-profile of Lavin as head coach. Columbia already has 2 games under their belt on the east coast, and of course this is an in-city rivalry that has seen the Lions cover the last time the schools met in 2006, in a similarly priced contest. The Lions are just getting too many points against a Johnnies team that HAS TO BE TIRED from the long flight back east!
Jay McNeil
10 Dime Bowling Green/Toledo Over
A pair of horrendous defensive units are going to be null and void tonight, as I see one of those wacky MAC football games taking place, and the score getting run up.
Toledo is in after getting pummeled by Northern Illinois, 65-30, so something tells me it will be out to avenge that by doing the same to what has been a disappointing Bowling Green team this season.
Toledo is 6-4 overall and 5-1 in conference play. It closes out the season at home, so looking for trip to the MAC title game is likely still rumbling in the Rockets' locker room. Thus, I know they'll be dictating a fast pace tonight.
For Bowling Green, all it does is pass the ball, since it has the worst rushing game in the nation. So to keep pace in this one, it's going to need put some points up by turning the game into a vertical shootout.
Play this one high.
Craig Davis
40 Dime Teaser Miami Ohio & Bowling Green
15 Dime Miami Heat
10 Dime Wisconsin Milwaukee
10 Dime Southern Cal
2-team/7-point TEASER MIAMI, OH AND BOWLING GREEN
Well, it's back to the MAC for another night of college football, and aside from last night's disappointment on Temple (what a joke they are), I've actually been quite good in this conference. And tonight I think the smart play is to tease the Redhawks and Falcons because both of these lines are around 10 and I think they're both pretty accurate. I don't see any way the Redhawks lose to Akron, no matter where the game is played, and I don't care one bit that QB Zack Dysert is listed as questionable. I learned that lesson last night. I jumped up the value of my teaser last night because I was absolutely convinced, based on those I talked to and everything I read, that Ohio QB Boo Jackson wasn't going to play. Big mistake. The college injury report is a joke because when does a player who's listed as "doubtful" still play?? Well, I fell for it. Not tonight. I handicapped this game with or without Dysert and I still came out with the Redhawks still winning by seven. You realize Akron hasn't won a game this year, right? You realize the closest game they've played all season (aside from Gardner Webb) was 37-30 last week against Ball State. Akron is probably the worst offensive team in the country as it ranks in the bottom 20 in the nation in rushing yards, passing yards, total offense (where they are dead last), and scoring offense (as well as scoring defense). The Zips have a combined 17 offensive touchdowns in 10 games, and keep in mind they scored 37 points against FCS Gardner Webb. Yikes. Miami has won six of the last seven meetings with Akron, and with the Zips struggling to do anything right, I see absolutely no way they don't win this game by at least seven tonight.
As for Bowling Green, well, this is a backyard brawl between two schools separated by about 30 miles. I know, I grew up there. I actually contemplated going to these colleges for a while. I've been to several of these games, and I barely remember a time where the Falcons were blown out. For whatever reason the Rockets have more trouble with the Falcons than vice versa. In fact, the last time the Rockets really had their way with Bowling Green was 10 years ago when UT rushed for over 400 yards in a 51-17 rout. Since then either the Falcons dominate the Toledo or it's a close game. Tonight will be no different. I realize, according to record, Toledo should win this game handily. The Rockets are Bowl eligible, having won six games already while the Falcons have struggled to win just two games this season. But when these two rivals hook up, you can throw records and stats out the window. It doesn't matter what the weather is or what the records of both teams are... it matters who wants it more. By adding seven points to this line we are getting the Falcons at a healthy 17 1/2 points on the PLUS side. In Toledo's 10 games so far this year, only once have they beaten a team by more than that many points... against a bad Kent State team. In a rivalry like this, I wouldn't feel safe picking a winner on either side, but I can tell you right now there is now way the Rockets have it in themselves to beat the Falcons by more than two touchdowns and a field goal. Second part of the teaser on the Bowling Green Falcons.
MIAMI HEAT
Yep, I'm going to take another chance with the Miami Heat laying around 8 or 9 points. They bit me in the butt the last time I released them as a 9-point favorite against Utah. The Heat held a 22-point lead in the 3rd quarter and an 8-point lead with :27 seconds remaining in the game, and somehow managed to not only blow those big leads but ultimately lose the game. I'm still shocked to this day. What I believe happened was that the Heat kinda got bored. Really, I think they did. They were absolutely dominating in the first half and the first few minutes of the 3rd quarter. But once the starters were brought back in from an extended break, that's when the wheels came off. Trust me... those guys (who are very fresh from not having played in a while) have learned their lesson and will absolutely step on their throats if they have them down early.
As for Phoenix, they are the type of team that can shoot themselves right out of a game in a hurry. I would much rather lay this many points against a team like Phoenix that doesn't play a lick of defense rather than a defensive-minded team that works the shot clock and makes the most out of every possession. And remember, the Suns are coming off a 121-116 win over the Lakers by shooting over 50% from three-point land, including a franchise-high 22 makes. So tell me, don't you think the Suns are going to come out firing early? They feel like they can walk on water right now, but long range shooting is low-percentage shooting and, like I said, that's the best way to get yourself out of a game. Miami also wants to sure up some defensive issues they had in that Utah game, and this is the perfect opportunity to use them. Lay the wood with Miami as I see a 15-point blowout coming.
WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE
I'm not here to tell you that I believe the Panthers are a great team or I believe they will come out and dominate. I don't have any insider information that tells me the Panthers have a "secret weapon" and have been waiting to unleash it tonight on the Purple Eagles. What I do know is that despite their 1-2 record, UWM has already played three games this season and has gotten better with each game... and this is a team that returns three starters from a squad that won four of its last five games to close out the 2009-2010 season. Compare that with a Niagara team getting ready to welcome in four new faces and looking forward to its first game of the 2010 campaign. I will not sit here and try to convince you how good Milwaukee is, but I will try to convince you Niagara is young, rusty and likely looking for a floor leader to replace the unbelievably talented Tyrone Lewis.
Lewis was a four-year starter at Niagara and finished his career as the third all-time leading scorer in school history with 1,849 points, including 17.1 points per game during his senior season last year. He will turn over the reigns of this team to the only senior left on the squad... Anthony Nelson. Nelson, the team's point guard, led the team with five assists per game and nearly 10 points and has been selected to the Pre-Season All-MAAC Third Team for his first-ever pre-season honor. Along with Lewis in the starting five, the Eagles must replace Bilal Benn, Demetrius Williamson and Rob Garrison... and those four accounted for over 50 points per game last season. You tell me... how are they going to make up for that right away? I just don't see it. So, my release of Wisconsin-Milwaukee has more to do against Niagara and their youth and inexperience than it does praise and adoration for the Panthers. It might be a close one, but in the end I'll back the team that's already got three games under their belt.
SOUTHERN CAL
Complete mismatch tonight in college hoops and I'm going to jump all over it before the line goes up. USC is clearly superior to Rider in so many ways, but ultimately it's the pure athleticism that the Trojans have that's going to be the difference. USC is 2-0 to start the season for just the second time in 10 seasons (also in 2009). USC last began a season 3-0 when they won the first eight games of the 2000-01 season. The Rider Broncs, on the other hand, are 1-1 having lost their opener, 77-67, at UMass before returning home to defeat Lafayette, 80-73. Rider returns a pretty strong corps from a year ago, with eight returning lettermen and four starters, but the team went 16-15 last year and the local media isn't very confident this team will improve from a year ago.
USC, on the other hand, is much younger than their counterparts, but the talent they brought in is supposed to be some of the top talent in the country. Freshman Maurice Jones scored 29 points and dished out five assists to lead USC to a 86-73 win vs. Santa Clara on Nov. 15. Junior Nikola Vucevic had his second straight double-double to start the season, scoring a career-high 22 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. Admittedly, the Trojans aren't as deep as Rider, but their starting five is head-and-shoulders better than Rider's and unless USC goes to their bench earlier than I expect, they should win this game easily... something in the neighborhood of 88-70.
Chuck O'Brien
20 Dime Miami Ohio
Motivation is everything at this point in the college football season, and in this MAC contest you’ve got one team supremely motivated (Miami needs to win out to keep its hopes alive for a MAC East division title) facing an opponent that cannot wait for the final whistle to blow on the 2010 season (Akron is 0-10 and is arguably THE single worst team in all of college football). Miami, which has already become bowl-eligible after going 1-11 last season, needs to win its final two games and hope Ohio loses to Kent State next week to clinch the East Division. It enters tonight 5-1 in MAC play (only loss to Ohio), and that includes three straight road victories in league play at Central Michigan, Buffalo and Bowling Green – three below-average teams, yes, but three teams that are miles better than Akron.
Not only are the Zips winless this season, but they’re just 3-7 ATS. All but two of the defeats were by double digits, including seven losses by 15 points or more and six losses by 26 points or more. Akron averages 15.1 points and 257.8 yards per game offensively and gives up 38.8 points and 437.6 yards per game defensively. Out of 120 teams in major college football, those figures rank 117th, 120th, 115th and 107th in the nation. … You know what those stats tell me? Even if Akron gets emotionally fired up for this nationally televised home game and plays its most inspired football of the season, it’s not going to matter because the Zips can’t move the ball or stop others from doing so.
Miami has won six of the last seven meetings with Akron, going 4-1 ATS as a favorite. The only non-cover came last year, when the Redhawks beat Akron 7-0 for their only win of the season but just missed cashing as a 7½-point favorite. Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games, 4-1 ATS in its last five MAC contests and 5-1 ATS in its last six against losing teams. Akron is in ATS slumps of 3-10 overall, 0-6 at home, 3-8 as an underdog and 0-4 as a home underdog.
Bob Balfe
Akron/Miami-Ohio Under 48
Miami Ohio QB Zac Dysert is out for the rest of the regular season with a spleen injury. Dysert will go down as one of the most accurate passers in MAC history. Taking a weapon away like Dysert in this conference is a huge loss. The MAC has always been a pass-happy division and now Miami Ohio will be counting on a freshman for the rest of the year. The good news is that Akron is winless. I do give the Zips a little bit of credit because they have played a tough schedule, but 0-10 is 0-10. I think Miami is good enough on defense to get passed the Zips tonight, but they will have to play solid defense. Neither team scores points in bunches and, on the road, Miami only scores about 16 pts per game. Look for Miami to try to get their ground game some more touches. This is one area that they are really not good at and Akron has experience on the defensive line to slow them down again. This should be a pretty boring football game. Miami might indeed get the victory, however I cannot take them to cover and Akron is just not good enough to take the points with. The best bet is the Under.
Toledo/Bowling Green Under 54
Just like Miami-Ohio, the Rockets of Toledo are in the same situation with a new quarterback, however the freshman Terrance Owens is going to be a pretty good player. I just do not think he has enough experience to be a double-digit favorite tonight. Bowling Green has shuffled their offensive line due to injuries and their center is banged up for tonight’s game. Toledo had a horrible game last week against Northern Illinois, but the truth is that NIU team is one of the best MAC teams in the history of the conference. Toledo has played great defense against the teams that are average or below average this year and have forced a ton of turnovers. With timing being a problem tonight for a shuffled and hurt Falcons offensive line, they could force a ton of turnovers. I really do not see Bowling Green scoring much. The Toledo offense has been so inconsistent all season that it's foolish to take them as a double- digit favorite. Bowling Green does a good job of forcing their own turnovers. Neither team has great field goal kickers and, in a cold night game, points will be hard to come by. Take the Under.
Detroit Pistons +8
The Lakers are a veteran team who started out hot but now, as the season has kicked in, you are going to start to see some tired legs. Last night, the Lakers got a big road win and will have to play back to back against a Detroit team that has a night off from their 4 game road trip. The Pistons started out slow, but are starting to pick up the pace. Los Angeles might sneak by tonight, but this spread has a lot of value. Take the Pistons as the big home dog.
Middle Tennessee State/UAB Under 136.5
Last year, UAB won by a point in what was one of the better Sun Belt games of the year. Both teams lost a ton of scorers from last year's team. Tonight, the winner will be decided by willpower and who plays better defense. Last season's game was all defense and, tonight with not a lot of proven scorers, I do not see much scoring at all in this game. Take the Under.
Derek Mancini
10 Dime Akron
Prime lookahead spot for a much improved Miami-Ohio team, that comes into this game off a big win at Bowling Green, and has Temple on deck in a huge season finale showodwn. Stuck right in the middle of Bowling Green and Temple is this 0-10 Akron team... And you're telling me the Redhawks are going to be "amped" for this match up? Unlikely at best, especially considering they'll be without their leader, QB Zac Dysert, who lacerated his spleen versus Bowling Green.
Besides losing Dysert, the Redhawks are catching this Akron team in the worst possible spot: coming off what amounts to a bye week (although technically its not, but its 3 extra days) that was preceded by their best effort of their dismal season. Despite the SU loss (they covered) against Ball State, the Zips really layed it out there, scoring 30 points, including 4 TDs from QB Patrick Nicely, which is key here. By far his best game this season, and that was coupled with senior RB Alex Allen having his best game of the season as well, with 165 rushing yards.
The reason that is so key is the Miami-Ohio defense is far from good, allowing 30 ppg on the road this season. Of course, the Zips defense is worse, but given the generous spread, the extra prep time, the confidence-boosting effort vs. Ball State, AND the Dysert injury, there's no question the play here is on the Zips. Lookahead factor also plays a big role, as this Maimi-Ohio team isn't "used to" winning, and these kind of teams are unlikely to be prepared for a sandwich game, against a bad team that's suddenly playing decent football. Redhawks may pull out the win, but it won't be nearly as easy as most bettors are anticipating. Take Akron plus the points (remember to buy the insurance as instructed above) over Miami-Ohio Wednesday.
2 Minute Warning
10 Dime San Antonio Spurs
Al DeMarco
5 Dime Minnesota Timberwoives
Not kidding above about the Clippers being injury-riddled; starting center Chris Kaman, starting poing guard Baron Davis and back-up guard Randy Foye are all out leaving 21-year-old Eric Gordon as the most experianced starter for LA's kiddie corps tonight.
The Clippers lug losing streaks of nine in a row on the road and six straight overall into the Target Center tonight to battle a Minnesota team that's actually played much better ball the past two weeks. After opening a road trip with a 26-point loss at Houston they lost by 5 to the Lakers in LA and then upset the Kings in Sacramernto by nine catching +10. Proving the victory wasn't a fluke they returned home and stunned the Knicks (-3'), 112-103. Losses at Atlanta (111-105) and Charlotte (113-110) followed, but the fact remains they've been competitive, in the position to win, in five straight games, four of which have been on the road.
Key to Minnesota's recent success has been the play of Michael Beasley, who is averaging 32.5 points the past four games, and Kevin Love (31 points, 31 rebounds agaiist the Knicks; 23 points, 24 rebounds against the Lakers), who combine to give the Wolves one of the best young pair of forwards in the league. They're unfortunately flanking perpetual underachieving center Darko Milicic but you can't have everything, right?
Bonus for the T'Wolves tonight is the expected return to action by point guard Luke Ridnour, who has missed five straight games with a hamstring pull. He lends a steady, veteran hand on the floor, especially in Minnesota's young backcourt.
Lenny Del Genio
Columbia +18.5
This is a terrible spot for the Johnnies, who played a 2 AM ET tipoff yesterday on the West Coast and lost to St. Mary's 76-71 as 3.5-point dogs in the debut for first year HC Steve Lavin - the former ESPN analyst. Now, they are being asked to lay nearly 20 points less than 48 hours later against an unfamiliar opponent. Columbia is 29-15 ATS on the non-conference road, including a cover in the opener at LaSalle where they made 24 field goals. They were even better against much weaker-foe MD-Eastern Shore, making 38 field goals in a 108-74 cakewalk. Compare that to St.John's, who made only 22 field goals vs. St. Mary's, only six of them assisted. Then there is the obvious travel advantage for Columbia here as they make a 45 minute bus ride to Queens while the Red Storm had to take an all-day flight home from the West Coast yesterday. Columbia is our CBB Underdog of the Week.
The Duke's Sports
Miami Ohio Under (47') for 2 Units
Defensively, the Zips have been horrendous; however, because Miami OH starting QB Dysert (spleen) is out, Akron should have a good opportunity to slow the Redhawks down. The Redhawks' offense struggles on the ground (72 ypg / 2.4 ypc) and with a redshirt freshman QB Austin Boucher, who's thrown a couple handful of passes in garbage time this season, the Zips can load the box and force him to pass. On the other hand, the Zips, which are inept offensively, are averaging 15 ppg this season and will have to go back to their other QB Nicely ( 48.7% pass completions / 7 TD / 12 INT) while the more effective backup QB - Matt Rodgers - recovers from a concussion. The Zips' passing game sorely lacks a vertical game as Nicely averages just 5 yards per attempt on his passes. Miami OH is on an 0-5 O/U run and 2-7 O/U as a road favorite. "Under" the call.
Matt Rivers
150,000♦ MIAMI (OH)
Take Miami as the road chalk over Akron.
Akron stinks.
I could really end my analysis right there and be justified in telling you that’s why you should lay it with Miami.
The Zips are 0-10 on the year and they’ve come by that record honestly. They rank 119th in the nation in total offense and 106th in total defense.
You would think that returning home would fire Akron up here, but they were blown out by Western Michigan in their last home game on Oct. 23, 56-10.
Western Michigan is a middle of the pack team in the MAC.
Miami is challenging for the MAC East title so there won’t be any letup by them.
Lay the wood as Miami steamrolls the Zips.
50,000♦ MAVERICKS
Take the points with the Mavs tonight on the road over the Hornets.
Quick turnaround from Monday’s battle in Dallas.
The Mavs seem to always give good value as a road dog and that’s why I like them here.
New Orleans has gotten off to a great start, but with these two just playing Monday night I like the experienced dog in what’s sure to be a close game.
Dallas was 26-15 ATS away from home last year and is off to a 3-0 SUATS start this year. The Mavs are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 roadies and have won four straight overall.
Take the points with the Mavs as they stay within the number.