Northcoast
Marquee - Over
Power Play Wins
Boston Celtics -8
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Rutgers
4 Units New Orleans
4 Units Phoenix
3 Units Atlanta
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Lakers-Kings Over
10 Dime Rutgers
LAKERS / KINGS OVER
Gee, you think the Lakers’ offense is in midseason form or what? Four games into the season and L.A. has yet to tally less than 107 points, and after last night’s 124-105 rout of the Grizzlies, the two-time defending champs are averaging 114.2 points per game, shooting 46.3 percent from the field, 45.6 percent from three-point land and 80 percent from the free-throw line.
Is there some concern that tonight marks the Lakers first back-to-back situation of the season? Yes, I would deem that concern as “mild,” because it’s not like it’s a difficult trip from L.A. to Sacramento. More importantly, because his team raced out to such a huge lead against Memphis last night, Phil Jackson was able to rest all of his starters. Only Lamar Odom (34 minutes) played more than 29 minutes, and Kobe Bryant was on the floor for less than 26 minutes while Derek Fisher barely played 23 minutes.
One more point about the Lakers’ scheduling: After tonight, they head back home for their next three games (meaning of the team’s first eight games, six will be at home and the others will be in Phoenix and Sacramento).
While the Lakers’ offense has been very sharp, the defense has been a little lax. L.A. has given up 110, 106 and 105 points in three of its four games, which has to have the young Kings excited. Sacramento has cracked the century mark in each of its first four games, averaging 108.8 ppg on 46.6 percent shooting. In fact, going back to the end of last season, the Kings have scored in triple digits in eight consecutive games, with all eight soaring over the total.
Problem is, the opponent has scored at least 104 points in each of Sacramento’s last seven contests, for an average of 111.9 ppg! In their four games this year, the Kings’ opponents are putting up 108.5 ppg, shooting 48.3 percent overall and 42 percent from beyond the arc. Honestly, I’ll be shocked, if the Lakers don’t put up 120 points, I’ll be shocked – after all, they’ve averaged 114.8 ppg in the last 16 meetings, with 14 of those 16 meetings (including eight of the last nine) going OVER the total.
Seriously, take a look at the Lakers’ point totals against Sacramento going back to the start of 2005-06 season: 106, 106, 109, 112, 122, 112, 101, 118, 124, 114, 113, 117, 117, 126, 108 and 132. Of course, the Kings have done their own share of scoring against L.A. the last four years, putting up point totals of 100, 99, 108, 103, 104, 103, 113, 108, 101, 92, 114, 105, 106, 103, 116 and 128.
Not only have 14 of the last 16 meetings between these rivals topped the total, 10 of the last 12 at Arco Arena have gone high. Also, check out these OVER trends: 10-4-1 for the Lakers as a favorite, 5-1 for the Lakers as a road favorite, 10-3-1 for the Lakers against the Western Conference, 7-3 for the Lakers against Pacific Division foes, 8-0 for the Kings overall, 4-0 for the Kings at home, 5-0 for the Kings as an underdog.
Bottom line: Both these offenses are humming to start the season, and neither (especially Sacramento) has shown any desire to play defense. Add it all up and we’ve got a shootout on our hands, and I’m looking for this one to easily eclipse 220 points.
RUTGERS
First off, this pointspread is inflated by at least three points, and it has to do with the results of each team’s last game. Two Fridays ago, South Florida went to Cincinnati as a 9½-point underdog and upset the Bearcats 38-30 (despite getting outgained by 212 yards). One day later, Rutgers had a two-game winning streak halted in a 41-21 road loss at Pitt as a 13½-point underdog (getting outgained by 310 yards).
Had those two results gone differently, there’s no WAY South Florida would be laying more than a touchdown (if that) tonight. Here’s why:
Prior to the Cincinnati contest, the Bulls had produced a grand total of five field goals and 15 points in their first two Big East games against Syracuse (13-9 home loss) and West Virginia (20-6 road loss). Throw in a 38-14 loss at Florida, and South Florida had scored a total of 29 points in its first three games against BCS Conference teams.
So if you believe (like I do) that the 38-point effort against Cincinnati was a big aberration, then you’d agree that this is a legitimate question: How can a team that has struggled so much offensively be counted on to cover a 10-point spread in a conference game?
Yeah, I get that Rutgers’ offense hasn’t been any better than South Florida’s this year. The Scarlet Knights haven’t scored more than 27 points against a Division I-A opponent this year, putting up an average of 19.5 ppg in six such contests. However, prior to the debacle at Pitt, Rutgers’ defense was yielding just 15.3 ppg and hadn’t allowed more than 24 points in nine straight games, 17 of 18 and 27 of 30.
The point: I simply do NOT think the Bulls are going to score more than 21 points tonight. Meaning we just need a couple of scores from Rutgers – and those scores could come on defense for all I care – to cover this number.
One last note of interest, and it involves this rivalry. Rutgers has defeated the Bulls four straight times, including a 31-0 shutout win last year in a near pick-em home game and a 49-16 destruction as an eight-point road underdog at South Florida in 2008. Think Scarlet Knights’ coach Greg Schiano might have South Florida’s number? I do. And if Rutgers made it five straight outright wins over the Bulls, you wouldn’t see me falling out of my chair in shock. Take the points.
Derek Mancini
20 Dime Houston Rockets
5 Dime South Florida Bulls
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Rutgers
The Duke's Sports
Rutgers Under (43') for 1.5 Units
South Florida has gone 1-5 O/U in their last 6 home games and we see value with the "under" here. South Florida's defense is giving up just 10.5 ppg at home and face another sluggish offensive team. The Rutgers' offense has not produced on account of a weak offensive line that has not protected their QB (Savage and Dodd) well nor opened holes for its RBs. Rutgers averages a paltry 2.9 ypc on the ground thus making it increasingly difficult to establish any kind of passing game. On the other hand, Rutgers remains solid defensively and should be able to contain B.J. Daniels and company -- that looked good on the road at Cincinnati. But defensive minded Schiano (HC Rutgers) had extra prep time to work an effective strategy to keep turnover prone Daniels from leading the Bulls on long sustainable scoring drives. We'll look for the Rutgers' defense to bend but not give up the big play. We'll take the value with the "under" here.
Maddux Sports
10 Units Phoenix Over 207.5
10 Units Rutgers +10.5
Five Star Sports
3* South Florida
3* Philadelphia
3* Sacramento
Tony George
LA Lakers -5
This line liable to jump. Both teams played last night, LA with a huge win by 21, while the Kings struggled till the final buzzer for a 3 point win over Toronto. Kobe shows no effects from a sore knee, and LA has HUGE advantages down low and in the post here and should own the boards. Better team, more easy points, more rebounds, best player on the floor, and best coach. Laying 5 in this one on the road does not scare me, I have a power rating of 9 points here, even with the road factor figured in. The road team in this series is 13-3 ATS. Play 1 Unit on the LA Lakers
Anthony Redd
50 Dime Rutgers / South Florida Under
20 Dime Pacers
Pro Tech Sports
5* Detroit Over 196
5* Dallas +4
Totals 4 U
Top Play
OVER S. FLOR
Reg Plays
UNDER ORL
OVER HOUS
UNDER DALL
OVER LAL
Platinum Plays
Premier Pick (Top Play)
CELTICS
400K Play
S FLOR
Reg Plays
PHIL
SA
LAL
UNDER S. FLOR
Don Wallace Sports
4* Memphis +3.5