Ben Burns
CUSA GOM - Marshall
Matt Fargo
Marshall
Dr. Bob
Central Florida (-5½) 30 MARSHALL 12
Central Florida is a very good defensive team this season (4.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), and the Golden Knights should have no trouble limiting a sub-par Marshall attack that is 0.3 yppl worse than average and averaging just 19 points per game. Central Florida has only allowed more than 17 points in one game (28 points to NC State) and that was a fluke given that the Knights only allowed NC State 244 yards at 3.6 yppl in that game. UCF is also 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively, but they’ve been better with Jeffrey Godfrey at quarterback (6.7 yards per pass play and 309 yards on 47 running plays) and Marshall’s defense has given up 5.8 yppl and 35.4 points per game this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl and 29 points against an average defensive team. My math model gives UCF a 59.4% chance of covering at -5½ points and the Knights are already 3-0 ATS against bad teams this season, beating South Dakota 38-7 (-26½), at Buffalo 24-10 (-7½), and UAB last Wednesday 42-7 (-12). I’ll take Central Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 points.
Maddux Sports
Central Florida -5.5
Jimmy Boyd
3* NCAAF Primetime Total UCF/Marshall Under 45
Last season, these two teams combined for just 41 points, and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this time around. UCF has put up some big offensive numbers at home, but it is averaging just 18.5 ppg in two road games this season. It is worth noting that both of those games went under the number by double digits. While Marshall has been blown out on the road, it has been very competitive at home against a pair of quality opponents (WVU, Ohio). We only saw 45 points scored when W. Virginia came to town, and 3 of those points were tacked on in OT. Having had a bye week to prepare for this one, I expect a solid defensive effort from the Thundering Herd. I also expect a strong defensive performance from UCF, which has held all 3 of its non-BCS opponents to 10 or fewer points. In fact, UCF ranks in the top 10 in both scoring and total defense for the season. There are plenty of numbers in our favor as well. The under is 4-0 in the Thundering Herd's last 4 games following a bye week, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Under is also 4-1 in the Knights' last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Power Play Wins
Marshall +5.5
Rich Green
3* C Florida/Marshall Under 45
Brandon Lang
10 Dime Central Florida -6
Anthony Redd
40 Dime UCF/Marshall Under 44
The Duke's Sports
Central Florida (-5') for 2 Units
At first glance, we lean towards Marshall on account of their strong home field and demonstrated ability to cover as a home dog throughout three different coaching staffs, including 1-0 ATS in that role under Holliday this season vs West Virginia. However, that was only the second game of the season and WV had little time to diagnose the 'Herds' schemes and personnel. CF, on the other hand, had adequate time to scout and prep their division counterpart and should deliver. CF has covered 9 of their last 10 on the road and sport a 4-0 ATS mark in their last 4 visits to Huntington. The 'Knights' defense is what distinguishes the strength of them over Marshall. CF ranks 8th nationally in points allowed (14 per game). Marshall doesn't pose a meaningful threat on the ground at just 101 yards per game and 3.8 ypc. Furthermore, the 'Herds' QB Anderson is not that mobile. Marshall does have a vertical threat but CF has a fierce pass rush and a fast and well disciplined secondary to limit big plays. On the other hand, CF has a strong run game and QB Godfrey is a duel threat on the ground and through the air. Marshall is a mere 1-3-1 ATS following a bye week, 1-4 ATS off a SU loss of 20+, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The road team has taken 6 of the last 8 in this series and we'll jump on CF.
Wayne Root
Millionaire - C. Fla
Jeff Benton
10 DIME CENTRAL FLORIDA
You know me: I’m not a big fan of laying points with road teams in these nationally televised weekday games between conference rivals. But there’s just no way you can recommend Marshall right now.
Since blowing a 21-6 mid fourth-quarter lead and losing 24-21 in overtime to instate rival West Virginia a month ago, the Thundering Herd simply have not recovered. They got blown out on the road at Bowling Green (44-28) and Southern Miss (41-16), and in between was a narrow 24-23 home win over Ohio (Ohio scored on the final play of the game and elected to go for two instead of kicking the extra-point and taking its chances in overtime).
Central Florida, meanwhile, is coming off last Wednesday’s 42-7 destruction of UAB as an 11½-point home favorite, and although the Golden Knights are just 3-2 on the season, they’ve cashed in three straight games and their two losses were by a combined 11 points to opponents (N.C. State and Kansas State) that are far more talented than Marshall.
When you look inside the numbers, you’ll see that Central Florida has outgained four of its five opponents, while Marshall has done so just once in its five games. What’s more, three times this season the Thundering Herd have been out-yarded by more than 100 yards; in the 41-16 loss at Southern Miss on Oct. 2, Marshall had just 170 total yards (including 45 rushing) to 369 for Southern Miss (205 rushing).
Essentially what this play comes down to is the fact that Central Florida’s offensive strength – the Golden Knights average nearly 193 rushing ypg – matches up great against Marshall’s defensive weakness (the Herd yield 173.8 rushing ypg). In fact, the overall defensive numbers show Marshall allowing 35.4 points and 418.2 total yards per outing, while UCF surrenders just 13.8 points and 265.2 total ypg.
Granted, the Thundering Herd have faced two Top 25 teams (Ohio State and West Virginia), while UCF has yet to defeat a quality foe. However, Marshall doesn’t qualify as quality anyway. Besides, the Golden Knights have owned this rivalry, winning five straight meetings and going 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Finally, USC has been a money-making machine lately, be it overall (8-2 ATS run), on the road (9-1 ATS), against Conference USA foes (4-0 ATS) or as a favorite (4-1 ATS). The Herd, meanwhile, have failed to cover in three straight and four of five overall, as well as four straight league games.
KIKI SPORTS
1 Unit Marshall +6.5
Jim Feist
NHL Bailout Game of the Month
Canucks.
KELSO
10 Units UCF -6