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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, October 21,2009

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Brandon Lang

20 DIME - UTEP MINERS - Dangerous home dog tonight.

UTEP has perhaps one of the more impressive wins of the year in college football and the general sports fan probably knows nothing about it.

Playing at home, which is where they are tonight, they shredded a Houston team 58-41 as a 14 1/2 point home underdog.

A Houston team that was coming off a huge win at Oklahoma State out of the Big 12.

Now I also understand this UTEP team lost at home to Kansas, and went on the road and lost to Memphis but is Tulsa really that good to be laying more than a touchdown here?

I look at Tulsa on the road at Rice, a game they won 27-10 against a Rice team that gave up 63 at home to Navy and just had a 49-spot put on them by East Carolina.

It was an inspired effort by Tulsa at home last Wednesday against Boise State but if weren't for Boise head coach Chris Petersen kicking a field goal on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line instead of punching it in with 3 minutes to go 3rd quarter, they don't cover that game.

UTEP can play folks, and like I said, you don't start hanging a 58-spot on Houston at home unless you have some talent to get it done in this spot here.

I will gladly grab the touchdown and a hook with UTEP and just like Tulsa last week, look for this home dog to hunt and figure out a way to stay within the number.

 
Posted : October 20, 2009 2:33 pm
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igz1 sports

3* Buffalo -130

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 8:01 am
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Jim Feist

5* ESPN Conference USA Showdown

TULSA VS UTEP
TAKE: TULSA

Tulsa and SMU are the only two unbeatens (2-0) in Conference USA West. Tulsa (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) plays its 5th game out of 7 on the road. That hasn’t slowed down this wide-open offensive attack, though, under second-year coach Todd Graham. Sophomore QB G.J. Kinne (10 TDs, 2 INTs) and dynamic soph WR Damaris Johnson lead the way, averaging 31 points, 154 yards rushing and 239 yards passing. "This is a great offense, the coaches do a great job game planning, that's one of the reasons I came," Kinne said. The Tulsa defense leads Conference USA and is 21st nationally in scoring defense, giving up just 16.2 points per game and a league-best 299.2 yards pg. "(The UTEP game) is big for us because it's the next conference game and the third step in our goal of being conference champions," HC Todd Graham said. "We also have 10 days off after this one and then have the next three games at home." UTEP (2-4 SU/ATS) has a decent offense, but they’ve been turnover prone with a terrible defense. The defense is terrible, giving up 34.5 ppg, and that was the problem the last game in a 35-20 loss at Memphis (as a favorite), giving up 486 yards (270 rushing). Tulsa won 77-35 a year ago! Play Tulsa.

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 8:17 am
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Mike Lineback

4* Philadlelphia Phillies -136

I'm going to ride the Phillies at home again. Bottom line: Philly look more prepared and poised to win this series... Team is playing at high level; LA Not?? Dodgers start Padilla has been on his game lately but can be hit hard, especially if he's rattled & he has a history of coming unraveled at times. No bigger stage than tonight. Will he choke it vs. Philly power bats?? Especially, lefty power bats Howard (playing at a high level), Utley (due for big game; gamer), Ibanez, Rollins & Stairs of the bench. Hamels, has struggled some lately but can be dominating when his change up is working. He won in LA last start & historically has pitched well vs. LA. Hamels has won 5 of L6 starts vs. the Dodgers, including a 9 inning shutout earlier this season. Strongly believe he steps up tonight, in front of jacked up home crowd, with a chance to pitch his team to another World Series. So going to give slight edge to Hamels over Padilla tonight, mainly because Padilla doesn't matchup as well vs. Philly left-handed power & can see him choking this opportunity. Would give Dodgers edge in bullpen but hey have struggled in this series. On flip side, Philly manager Manuels has set up his relief core, really nice, for Playoffs. Big difference tonight will be the home field advantage in Citizens Bank Park (electric energy). Philly 10-1 their L11 home playoff games. Philadelphia playing better baseball and are ready to advance to the World Series.

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 10:58 am
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Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Tulsa (-7.5) over UTEP

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 10:59 am
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Ben Burns

10* UTEP

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 11:00 am
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Ben Burns

10* UTEP

I'm taking the points with UTEP. The Miners came through for me in a big way a few weeks ago. Listed as double-digit underdogs, they blew out Houston by a score of 58-41. That victory showed what this team is capable of, when "clicking on all cylinders." However, the Miners had a letdown in their next game (I didn't play them in that one) suffering a disappointing 35-20 loss at Memphis. That result has helped to provide us with a very generous line to work with this week. Note that further value has been provided by the fact that the line has climbed from its opener. While I have a lot of respect for Tulsa, I expect the Miners to bounce back here and for them to look a lot more like the team which defeated Houston than the one which lost at Memphis.

Note that the Houston victory was here at home while the Memphis loss was on the road. Speaking of the Memphis loss, it should ensure that the UTEP players are focused on practicing and improving and keep them from becoming over-confident. (Off the big win over Houston, if they'd also beaten Memphis, they might have started to pat themselves on the back a little.)

The Miners have the schedule in their favor here. Tulsa is coming off a hard-fought loss on National TV (vs. Boise State) last Wednesday. Everyone saw Tu‡lsa hold its own and get the cover, further helping us in terms of line value. UTEP, on the other hand, is coming off a bye, having last played on Oct. 10. That gives them plenty of time to prepare.

The Miners should also have a motivational edge. In addition to playing a nationally televised game in front of their home fans, they were destroyed at Tulsa last season. In fact, "destroyed" may not even be a strong enough word. Indeed, the Golden Hurricane scored 77 points (77-35) and racked up nearly 800 (791) total yards of offense. With 55 returning lettermen (most in CUSA) and 15 returning starters, it's safe to say that the Miners haven't forgotten that game and that they've had this year's matchup circled ever since.

The home team has dominated this series recently, having won five straight. I'll grab the points but I believe that the Miners are more than capable of keeping that streak alive with an outright victory.

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 11:58 am
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WAYNE ROOT

Football Upset Club

3* Texas El Paso (+8) over Tulsa

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 1:30 pm
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Chris Jordan

200♦ TULSA

100♦ PHILLIES

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 1:32 pm
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Anthony Redd

10-Dime UTEP

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 1:32 pm
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The Duke's Sports

Tulsa (-8) 1.5 Units

Can't pull the trigger on revenge minded UTEP which got blasted 77-35 last year at Tulsa. Defensive flaws in the Miners' run stop unit (allow 5.3 ypc / 215 ypg) create big play opportunities for opponents. And Tulsa has big play potential with a solid supporting cast around well disciplined QB G.J. Kinne (62% completion / 12 TD/2 INT). On the other hand, the Golden Hurricane's defense is well disciplined enough to limit the UTEP offense that has a tendency to get sloppy w/ penalties. UTEP is just 1-9 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games, 2-5 ATS with extra rest, and 2-7 ATS after allowing 200+ rushing yards. Tulsa has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series and we'll lay some wood with them tonight

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 1:44 pm
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ANTONY DINERO

Tulsa at UTEP
Pick:Tulsa -7.5

Preseason C-USA favorite Tulsa fell at UTEP, hence the danger of Tulsa going into potentially raucous El Paso and suffering a letdown after the home cover against Boise. The problem with that logic is the Golden Hurricane are a much sounder defensive unit, having not surrendered a single rushing TD all season. If Donald Buckram can't get the ground game going, the Miners offense struggles as it has in being held under 20 in four of their six games. Tulsa leads C-USA in scoring defense, is capable of keeping drives alive thanks to the legs and arm of G.J. Kinne and will prevail on the road by 2 TDs. Lay the 7.5.

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 1:46 pm
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Vernon Croy

Wednesday Night College Football Smash

3* Take Tulsa ATS

This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and the Golden Hurricanes are the superior overall team here Wednesday night. The Golden Hurricanes are 5-2 in their last 7 road games against UTEP and they are a lot stronger defensively. Tulsa has allowed just an average of 312.7 ypg this season compared the the Miners defense that has allowed an average of 493 ypg this season. The Miners are just 7-17 in their last 24 games after a bye week and Tulsa has out scored their opponents by an average of 11.5 ppg on the road this season. Take Tulsa as my Wednesday Night College Football Smash.

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 2:49 pm
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Bobby Maxwell

300-Unit College Midweek Cruiser - TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE

This game should certainly be entertaining as both teams are capable of putting up points and moving the ball. The problem I see with UTEP is the Miners just give up way too much yardage per game. And with Tulsa?s quick strike capability, this game could get out of hand just like last year?s 77-35 blowout.

Tulsa trailed 28-21 in last year?s game at home as a 20.5-point favorite, but turned on the jets and got the offense in gear and wound up with the 77-35 victory and a huge 791 total yards of offense. It was the most yards in a Division 1-A game last season.

And it doesn?t look like things have gotten much better for UTEP?s defense, as it gave up 486 yards in a 35-20 loss at Memphis as a 1.5-point road favorite on October 10. Another problem for the Miners is turnovers as they coughed it up three times in their loss to Memphis and fell to 2-6 SU in their last eight overall.

UTEP is giving up 46.7 points and 596 yards per game in its last three overall, while Tulsa has allowed just 13.7 and 270.7 in its last three.

Tulsa fought Boise State a week ago but fell 28-21, cashing as a nine-point home ?dog, but the Golden Hurricane thought they were winning that thing. They had a 14-8 advantage after the first quarter but managed just 88 yards rushing as the offense stalled. Remember, this team?s only losses this year are to Oklahoma and Boise State, both teams ranked in the Top 12 in the country when they faced off.

UTEP is on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 3-7 at home and 3-11 on artificial turf. Meanwhile, Tulsa is on ATS runs of 4-1-1 overall and 3-0-1 as a chalk.

Play Tulsa to put up a lot of points and cover this number tonight!

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 2:50 pm
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Payne Sports

8 Units UTEP +8

Many may ask why you even look at UTEP and want to play them, but my friend I am hear to tell you there are not too many teams from CUSA that would be much better than 2-4 with their schedule. Houston, Kansas, and Texas are 3 ranked teams and would destroy about every team in CUSA and these Miners beat Houston not only beating them but destroyed them. Similar to Texas is OU who destroyed Tulsa. The defense for UTEP is suspect but only allowed an average of 380 total yards against Buffalo, NewMex St, and Memphis, so the number be more because of the other 3 opponents. I believe this will be a shoot out and Tulsa will score, but I believe UTEP will stay right with them.UTEP is coming a bye week which gives them more adequate time to prepare and I look for Vittatoe to get back to his normal self from last year where he eclipsed 3300 yards of offense with 33 tds and 9 ints. Their schedule is very favorable the rest of the way as this is their hardest game the rest of the season so if they can win this they should be favored in 4 of their last 5 games only one being a dog is at SMU. You will see a lot of Tulsa love and rightfully so, but if you watched the Boise game they had to run trick plays and long completions to get in the end zone as they really only had one sustained drive. UTEP has a taste in its mouth from last year where Tulsa ran the score up amounting 790 yards of total offense and most of the team from last year is back and that doesn't site right. The Sun Bowl will be hopping and loud as UTEP plays this game close as they establish the run, which will open up Vittatoe and you will see him have a big game tonight as UTEP stays within the number with a possible outright victory.

 
Posted : October 21, 2009 3:07 pm
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