Bob Balfe
UTEP +7.5 over Tulsa
UTEP won a huge game a few weeks ago against Houston and then had a let down against Memphis the next week. The Miners had 15 days to prepare for this game which was circled on the calendar at the beginning of the season. Tulsa crushed UTEP last year after scoring the final 35 points in a blowout embarrassing the Miners. Last week Tulsa looked horrible against Boise in a huge game at home that they did not show up for. This line is set high based on last years result. Tulsa has a good defense, but on the road UTEP should keep this game close. Take the Miners.
Phillies -135 over Dodgers
Hamels/Padilla
Tony Weston
15 Dime Tulsa
5 Dime Phillies
Tulsa at UTEP
TULSA - Last week at home against Boise State, Tulsa looked impressive in nearly pulling off the outright win as a 9-point underdog, losing 28-21 and covering.
So far this season TUlsa is 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS, with the lone SU losses coming to Top 25 teams Oklahoma and the aforementioned Boise State Broncos.
Now the Golden Hurricane gets to do battle with a UTEP team that has had its share of struggles this year and will struggle once again against its Conference USA rival.
So far this season in six games UTEP has only managed two wins SU and ATS and going back to last season the Miners have gone just 2-5 their last 7 games ATS.
Consider, too, UTEP has gone just 3-7 its last 10 games ATS and is just 2-5 ATS its last 7 games coming off a bye week.
The Golden Hurricane, on the other hand, has covered in 8 of its last 9 games coming off a bye and has not lost ATS its last 5 games when installed as a favorite.
But most important is what these two have done against each other. Tulsa has covered in 5 of the last 7 meetings overall against UTEP and is 5-2 ATS the last 7 games in UTEP.
Tulsa will do it again tonight and cruise to an easy victory over the Miners.
Dodgers at Phillies
PHILLIES - The Philadelphia Phillies are an absolute mission right now and have demoralized the Los Angeles Dodgers and all of their fans.
Whether its cruising to an easy 11-0 win like in Game 3 or coming from behind to steal a game like in Game 4, the Phillies are doing everything right and will close out this series and move onto the World Series tonight.
So far the Phils have taken 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two, including 3 of 4 so far in this NLCS.
Including their wins in the NLCS, the Phillies have won 7 of their last 9 games overall and are 17-5 their last 22 playoff games. At home, Philadelphia has won 10 of its last 11 postseason affairs and is 10-1 its last 11 games when installed as a playoff favorite.
Overall, not just in the postseason, the Phillies have gone 33-12 their last 45 games when installed as a home favorite and the team is 35-16 its last its last 51 home games overall. Against the NL West, the team has taken 35 of its last 51.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, have had their share of struggles, especially against the Phils. Los Angeles has lost 25 of its last 35 meetings in Philadelphia and is just 1-5 its last 6 games against Phillies scheduled starter Cole Hamels.
Consider, too, the Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff road games and are just 1-5 their last 6 games in the NLCS. The team has also failed to a win a game in 4 straight NLCS road games.
Things won’t get any better tonight as the Dodgers season comes to an end.
Take the Phillies in this one tonight.
Street Rosenthal
*200 Tulsa -7
I am posting this pick early so you may take advantage of a lower line. It would take UTEP playing near perfect football to cover this spread. This means pefect redzone execution, no costly penalties, winning the turnover margin and stopping Tulsa's explosive offense. Tulsa is 4-2 ATS already this year and continues to be getting favorable lines. It will difficult for UTEP to cover this number even at home especially with Tulsa coming in off a loss. Here are a couple of the trends I have pointing to a Tulsa cover. UTEP is 3-13 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since October 20, 2001 at home after a loss on the road. If the line is less than 12 they UTEP is a sad 0-9. Take Tulsa for the cover on Wednesday night.
RAS
Tulsa/UTEP Over 58.5
Savanah Sports
2* Philadelphia Under 8.5
Eric Degarde
2* Chicago Over 5.5
LT Profits
Tulsa/UTEP OVER 29.5 (First Half)
Freddy Wills
Tulsa -7 -120 buy 1/2 point (3-Dime play) (1-5 scale)
I'm going with Tulsa in this spot and I'll tell you why. For one everyone is making a huge deal about this game because UTEP beat Houston at home here in convincing fashion. Well there is a few things different here and I'm not buying into the hype on UTEP nor on Houston. Houston does not play defense they are ranked 111th overall, but more importantly they are ranked 115th against the run. Donald Buckram was amazing that day rushing for 262 yards making up for 42% of his rushing yards on the season. Actually 78% of his rushing yards have come in 3 games this year, Buffalo, Houston, and New Mexico State. The average rush defense from those three teams respectfully is 98th in the nation.
On Wednesday night they will face a rush defense ranked 32nd in the nation. Now for fairness they have only faced an average 75th rushing offense, but still against Boise State, and Oklahoma you have to be impressed with what this team has done on defense this year to stay in games. It does not stop there as they have an answer for the pass with the 42nd ranked passing defense. It has been proven in UTEP's losses that if they don't get out to a lead early they give up on the run. Against Memphis, Texas, and Kansas they fell behind early which led to Buckram's total 36 carries in the game. Why were these teams able to get out to the leads because their defense stopped the offense and it started with containing Buckram who was held to 135 yards rushing. I believe Tulsa can do this and with their offense I expect them to get a lead which could mean bad news for UTEP.
Tulsa will be going up against a defense that ranks 119th in the nation. Although they are much better than that as they have faced an average 43rd ranked offense you won't know it on Wednesday. Last year's meeting Tulsa was tied 28-28 against UTEP I remember this game because I had Tulsa. After that Tulsa started blitzing UTEP and they had no answer. It proves that Tulsa also has the better coach in Graham and despite UTEP having 4 extra days to prepare I'm still comfortable laying the TD. Tulsa is ranked 47th in total offense, but in my opinion has much to prove as they are much better than this facing two top 25 ranked defenses on their schedule thus far. They put up 77 points on this team last year and although I don't see quite a number Tulsa will be able to do much more with G.J. Kinne off his back as UTEP barel
Doc's Sports
3-Unit Play Take Philadelphia (1.5RL +150) over LA Dodgers
The last thing the Philadelphia Phillies want is to get on a plane and fly across the country.So we expect them to be fully motivated in this game. Their post-season ace, Cole Hamels, is on the hill. In seven career starts against the Dodgers, his ERA is 2.19. He is capable of going out and shutting out the Dodgers. For the Phillies, facing Vin Padilla the second time around, should be a much simpler experience. Expecting the Phillies to repeat in a big way.
ROBERT FERRINGO
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia
That's it for today. I'm sorry, but I don't see much value in these playoff lines at the moment. I admit that I have been missing out with the Yankees. However, right now I don't feel like most bettors are handicapping games as much as they are kind of guessing. With such a limited amount of games and matchups available things this time of year strike me as particularly "fluky". We win so much during the season because we play the systems. No systems remain here in these LCS series (I have already used them) so I'm lying in wait for the World Series.
Scott Rickenbach
9* (TOP PLAY) Buffalo Sabres Money Line (-) @ Florida
Buffalo is 4-1-1 this season and coming off their first loss in regulation time this season. Florida is just 2-4 this season and they’re coming off of their first win in regulation time this season. This is offering huge value to the Sabres in this match-up because they’re on the road and laying a small price while also being perfectly position for a bounce back game. Buffalo’s forwards are healthy again and, with Thomas Vanek back they’ll be able to roll out the same four lines that produced solidly for them early this season. Even though they lost 4 to 2 to Atlanta on Saturday, the Sabres did finish up that game outshooting the Thrashers by a 41-15 margin. After getting down early, Buffalo certainly responded but the fact that they still came up short insures that they are still hungry here and they will carry momentum from Saturday’s effort right into Wednesday’s game. Keep in mind, the Sabres were playing the second of a back to back situation when they lost to Atlanta Saturday and they seemed to come out flat in that game. You certainly won’t see a repeat of that here.
Buffalo has been one of the league’s best so far this season in terms of generating shots on goal while also limiting their opponents’ shots on goal. They also will have Ryan Miller back in goal tonight and he’s off to a stellar start this season. Miller is 5-1 with a 1.65 GAA in his last six starts against Florida. He also has a 1.50 GAA in winning each of his last four starts. Also, the Sabres could take advantage of seeing Panthers back-up netminder Scott Clemmensen in this one. Or, if Florida does decide to go with their #1 netminder, note that Tomas Vokoun is off to a very rough start for the Panthers this season and he’s just 1-4-1 in six starts against Buffalo. While the Sabres are outshooting their opponents by 12 shots per game the Panthers are being outshot by about 11 shots per game. With the extra hunger the Sabres bring here (off of a home loss), as well as their improved health up front with the forwards, this one should quickly turn into a road rout! Play Buffalo on the money line as a 9* TOP PLAY selection.
Executive
200 Philadelphia
Lenny Del Genio
Dodgers vs. Philadelphia
Look for the Phillies to end the Dodgers season for a second straight year. Once again, Cole Hamels, last year's World Series MVP, pitches the close out game. Hamels has yet to lose to the Dodgers in seven starts, including nine innings of shutout ball back in June. Vicente Padilla has posted some great numbers both recently and overall in the underdog role, but history suggests that it is a fluke. Padilla was on the hill for LA's only win this series, but an 11-0 loss on Sunday all but signaled the end for Dodger blue. If that wasn't bad enough, they come off that crushing defeat on Monday in the bottom of the ninth. That was the final nail in the Dodgers coffin. Lost in all this is the fact that the Phillies have won 17 of 22 playoff games during their two year run. We brought up this system in the LDS and will reiterate that teams leading in a playoff series win 70% of the time (63-27) over the past five seasons. Philadelphia is our 25* NL Playoff Game of the Year.
Tony George
Tulsa vs. UTEP
Easy winner here. Think about UTEP’s last 3 games. They have allowed 99 first downs, over 590 yards per game, against a Tulsa offense that in this conference and scenario is virtually unstoppable with their attack. Mike Price is losing grasp of this program and Tulsa clearly 10 points better on offense. UTEP runs the ball well, but Tulsa ranked 20th nationally against the run and that hampers UTEP and their ability to trade punches here. Tulsa by 12.
Play 1 Unit on Tulsa
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Tulsa vs. UTEP
I was on Tulsa last Wednesday, and they did just enough to come away with the ATS victory; this week, for a number of different reasons, I feel Tulsa is going to lay the hammer down on UTEP: Coach Todd Grahams words about his teams performance vs. Boise State; “No, our boys battled hard,” Graham said. “This is the highest ranked team we’ve played. They are a great team, and they have one of the best offenses in the nation, they are really explosive. We fought and battled hard.” Tulsa has not allowed a rushing TD in six games but gave up a season-high 193 yards on the ground to Boise State. It was the first game this season an opponent gained more yards rushing than passing; I expect Tulsa's defense to come out firing on all cylinders this week though against its weaker opponent. QB G.J. Kinne completed more than 50 % of his passes for 154 yards and two TD's and has thrown for seven TD's with no INT's in the past three games. Although they lost last Wednesday, Tulsa is 16-5 SU its last 21 overall, 4-1 SU its last five on the road and 5-2 ATS its last seven vs. Texas El Paso on the road.
On the other side of the field: Dropped passes, giving up big plays and overall inconsistency on both sides of the ball have plagued UTEP this year. QB Trevor Vittatoe has shown improvement, however his receivers continue to struggle. And to say UTEP on the whole has struggled would be an understatement; not only is Texas El Paso just 2-5 ATS its last seven overall, its also a poor 3-7 ATS its last ten at home. UTEP will be in tough this week at Tulsa has just seven giveaways all season!
Bottom line: This Golden Hurricane squad averages 30.8 points and 394.3 yards of total offense a game, and gives up just 18.2 points per contest; this is going to be a nightmare for UTEP! Tulsa's main weakness right now is its offensive line, however I look for it to answer the call against the inconsistent Miners! Off last week's impressive showing against Boise State, I look for TULSA to dictate the play in this game from start to finish and move to 3-0 ATS when playing the roll of favorite, 3-0 ATS as a road favorite and 2-0 ATS against conference opponents, as UTEP falls to 1-3 ATS as a dog this year and 1-3 ATS in front of the hometown crowd! *9 TULSA.
Rocketman
Carolina vs. Islanders
Carolina is 2-5 SU on the season while the NY Islanders come in with an 0-6 overall record this year. Carolina is 9-4 the past 3 years after 3 or more consecutive losses. Carolina is 6-2 SU and ATS overall vs NY Islanders the past 3 years including 4-0 SU and ATS at NY Islanders. Islanders are 17-43 in their last 60 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Islanders are 16-48 in their last 64 overall. Islanders are 13-40 in their last 53 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Islanders are 7-22 in their last 29 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Islanders are 12-39 in their last 51 vs. Eastern Conference. Islanders are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Islanders are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. Southeast. Islanders are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. Islanders are 0-5 in their last 5 Wednesday games. Islanders are 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Islanders are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Road team is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. We'll play Carolina for 3 units tonight!