Teddy Covers
Yankees/Twins Over
Matt Fargo
UAB +13
Wunderdog
5 Units - Texas Rangers +120
The Rangers will wheel out their August addition in Cliff Lee. He will be opposed by American League All-Star game starting pitcher in David Price. Price had a great season from start to finish, posting 19 wins, with a 2.72 ERA. But Cliff Lee hasn't been far behind. He's got a 3.18 ERA in 28 games and he's been on fire of late, posting a 2.25 ERA in his last three games, allowing only 5 earned runs and 3 walks with 19 K's. The Rays have limped into postseason play, losing five of their last eight games, averaging just 2 runs per game over that span. Their offense has underperformed at home all season (they score nearly a run per game better on the road). The past two seasons, the Rangers are 65-66 as an underdog including 23-20 this season. This game is in their sweet spot. On the road this season they are 17-11 as a road dog of up to +125. Cliff lee is 30-23 as a road dog. I like the Rangers to surprise and grab the win here.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Rangers / Rays Under 7
Scott Spreitzer
Blockbuster Blowout - Tampa Bay
Ultimate Knockout - Twins
David Banks
Central Florida
Under
Phillies
Rays
Twins
Dave Cokin
Silid Gold - UAB / C Florida Under 49.5
Reds
Power Play Wins
UAB/UCF Over 49
Jeff Benton
15 DIME - RAYS
5 DIME - UAB
RAYS
Anyone who watched the 2009 playoffs knows that Cliff Lee was an absolute beast for the Phillies, going 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five starts, including hurling two complete games. But anyone who watched Cliff Lee work over the final six weeks of this season or watched him in three games against the Rays in 2010 knows he was – at best – mediocre.
Although Lee finished with three quality stats (total of two earned runs allowed in 23 innings) in his last four trips to the mound, he still went just 2-4 with a 5.18 ERA in his final nine starts (with Texas going 3-6). Five of those nine starts came on the road, with Lee allowing 26 runs (23 earned) in 32 innings (a 6.45 ERA) and the Rangers going 1-4.
Lee’s road struagles began with a 6-4 loss in Tampa Bay on Aug. 16, with the southpaw allowing six runs on nine hits in 7 2/3 innings. He also faced the Rays twice in the span of 11 days when he was with Seattle in May, allowing a combined seven runs (six earned) on 15 hits over 16 innings, and he lost those two games as well. Add it all up and despite a 25-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Lee was 0-3 with a 4.56 ERA in 23 2/3 innings against the Rays this season (0-2, 4.60 ERA in two games at Tropicana Field).
Now, could Lee step up today and throw a complete-game gem? Of course he could – his stuff is that good. But here’s the thing: He probably will have to be nearly perfect because his mound counterpart is David Price. Price turned in a Cy Young-caliber performance this season, going 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA, including 9-2 with a ridiiculous 1.96 ERA in 16 home starts. Tampa Bay went 12-4 in those 16 home games and it won 23 of his 31 starts, including the last six in a row and nine of the last 10.
Take away one poor outing at Yankee Stadium in his first post-All-Star break start (he allowed seven runs in five innings), and Price went 7-1 with 2.55 ERA over the second half of the season. The Rays went 11-2 in back of Price down the stretch, with the lefty giving up three earned runs or fewer in 12 of those 13 starts (and two runs or fewer eight times).
Price outdueled Lee in that Aug. 16 contests in Tampa Bay, allowing two runs on five hits and five walks in six innings. In fact, the Rays swept that three-game series, outscoring Texas 24-11, and since the start of last season, the home team is on a 12-3 roll when these teams hook up. What’s more, the Rangers are 5-17 in their last 22 visits to the Trop (1-5 in the last six).
Texas has also lost 23 of 32 games on artificial turf (Tampa Bay and Toronto) and 13 of 18 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Rays closed the season on a 29-13 roll at home; they’re 33-16 in their last 49 games against left-handed starters; and with Price on the hill, Tampa is on impressive hot streaks of 37-16 overall, 21-7 at home, 22-6 as a favorite, 6-0 against A.L. West opponents and 10-2 when he starts a series.
Dirt cheap price to lay with the home team here, even if it is against a pitcher the caliber of Cliff Lee.
UAB
Way too many points for Central Florida to be laying, especially since the Golden Knights are so one-dimensional offensively – and that one dimension does not match up with UAB’s big weakness. See, UCF is averaging 184 rushing yards per game (as opposed to just 169 passing ypg), and while UAB’s defense is getting torched for 31 points and 405 yards per contest, the Blazers’ problem has been defending the pass, as they’re allowing 272.2 ypg through the air. Against than the run, UAB has been respeltable (133 ypg).
Three of UAB’s four games this season have been decided by a total of five points (including a 32-29 overtime loss at Tennessee on Sept. 25 – the same Tennessee that should’ve won at LSU this past Saturday). And if you take away a 28-7 loss at SMU on Sept. 11, the Blazers have been averaging 33.4 points in their last eight games dating to Halloween of last year (and they scored 27 or more in seven of those eight games).
Bottom line: There’s just no way a run-first team whose quarterbacks have combined for 676 passing yards, two TDs and four INTs through four games should be laying nearly two touchdowns against a conference rival that fields a balanced offense that nets 260 passing ypg and 182 rushing ypg (5.2 yards per carry).
One parting thought: UAB has cashed in two of the last three meetings with Central Florida, and the ‘dog is on a 4-2 ATS roll.
MTi Sports
4* Rays
4* Twins
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Texas (+120) over Tampa Bay
Cliff Lee has won 5 consecutive playoff games and he has also won 6 of the last 7 games when pitching in the month of October. Cliff Lee has won 12 of the last 15 road games when pitching on a Wednesday and he has an ERA of 2.87 vs. Tampa Bay over his career.
50* Play Cincinnati (+185) over Philadelphia
Edinson Volquez has won 16 of the last 20 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has also won 20 of the last 26 road games. Edinson Volquez has won 14 of the last 18 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 2-0 vs. Philadelphia over his career with an ERA of 0.73.
50* Play Minnesota (+130) over New York
Minnesota has won 50 of the last 69 home games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less and they have also won 25 of the last 33 games after having lost six or seven of the last eight games. Francisco Liriano has an ERA of 3.11 in home games this season and he also has an ERA of 3.33 vs. new York over his career.
Scott Delaney
60 Dime - TB Rays
Seabass
50* Tex
50* Tex Series
50* Cin
50* Cin Un 7
50* NY
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Cincy/ Phily Over 7
1 Unit Central Florida -13.5
1 Unit Texas +120
1 Unit Minnesota +135
1 Unit NY Yank/ Minny Under 7.5
Tony George
Tampa Bay