ATS Lock Club
3 Units UAB Blazers +12.5
4 Units Tampa Bay Rays -130
3 Units NY Yankees/Minnesota Twins Over 7.5
Mike Lineback
Phillies Team Total Over 4
NY Yankees
Lenny Del Genio
TB Rays
Ben Burns
Reds / Phillies Under 7
Larry Ness
ALDS GOY - NY Yankees
KELSO
5 Units UAB Blazers +12.5
10 Units NY Yankees -145
3 Units Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
2 Units Tampa Bay -130
Tim Trushel
20* Cin/Phil Under 7
Anthony Redd
40 Dime - Central Florida Under
10 Dime - Central Florida
10 Dime - Phillies Under
10 Dime - Tampa
Rich Green
3* UAB +13
3* Phillies
Sportsbook Guru
5 Units Minn/NY Under 7.5
2 Units Central Florida -12.5
Sam Clayton
2* Minnesota Twins +160
Think this is finally the year the Twinkies get over the hump against the Yanks after going 0-3 their last three ALDS rounds against NYY. However, for the first time, Minnesota has the ever important home field advantage and they just so happened to be the BEST squad at home in the ENTIRE American League. Huge revenge spot for the Twins, who come into this series with a chip on their shoulder and a definite edge from a motivational standpoint.
Anybody that thinks the Yankees are going to walk through this series is poorly mistaken because this years Minnesota squad is much improved from 2009. They were DOMINANT in the AL Central and played great baseball for 150+ games before shutting down some key players down the stretch. Ron Gardenhire did the right thing allowing Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young to get some much needed rest and recovery --- I expect a stronger, fresher Twins ball club coming into the series. And for all the talk about the dangerous Yankees offense, the Twins scored the most runs per game in all of baseball since July.
Still, this series will come down to the PITCHING staffs, a category where I feel the Twins have a superior edge. Liriano, Pavano and Brian Duensing get my vote of confidence over the Yankee rotation because after C.C. Sabathia, I don't trust Andy Pettitte (winless since July 8 and STILL ironing out kinks since returning from injury three weeks ago) or Phil Hughes. Also, if C.C. struggles Game 1, which could very well happen given the line, the entire series could shift toward Minnesota right away. Lastly, the Twins win the important bullpen matchup running away. Shoring up their already awesome bullpen with Brian Fuentes and Matt Capps before the deadline was a direct plan for the postseason. In fact, I would argue that outside of San Francisco, the Twinkies have the best bullpen in the 2010 Playoffs. The Yankees on the other hand are still struggling to find that bridge between the starters and Mariano Rivera.
If Minnesota continues to grind out wins and play the type of situational baseball that has gotten them 'W's all season long, they will be fine. There's definite VALUE at +155 and with home field advantage PLUS the revenge and motivational aspirations against the Yankees, I'm diggin' this dog!
Evan Altemus
4 Units - UAB +13
Andy Iskoe
Reds at Phillies
Pick: Phillies -1.5
Roy Halladay has been brilliant for the Phillies this season and finally gets to pitch in the Playoffs. He is clearly capable of pitching deep into this game as he averaged averaged 7.6 innings per start, tied for tops in the majors with Texas' Cliff Lee. He faced the Reds twice in 2010 putting forth a decent effort on the road but a brilliant effort at home, pitching 9 innings of shutout ball, allowing just 5 hits in a game won by the Phils 1-0 in 11 innings. The Reds' Edinson Volquez has solid stuff but fashioned a rather ordinary season. Though he did fare well against lefties the pressure of the post season and the experience of the Phillies likely causes problems in the middle innings. The Phillies are too high priced to play straight but laying a run and a half at roughly even money is a solid alternative.
Marc Lawrence
NY Yankees
Ben Burns
10* Reds / Phillies Under 7
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the number. The Reds have played here at Philadelphia a dozen times since the beginning of the 2008 season. Nine of those 12 games, including three of four this season, stayed below the total. With a pair of highly capable pitchers taking the mound, I won't be surprised if Game 1 of their playoff series also proves low-scoring.
Halladay gets the call and he's had yet another superb campaign. For the season, he was 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 250 2/3 innings. That includes a 12-5 mark with a 2.21 ERA here at home, with four complete games.
Not only is he coming off a great season, Ha‡lladay is a fierce competitor, one who values and understands his spot in the history books. He made one home start against the Reds this season. You may remember that one. Cincinnati's Travis Wood dominated Philadelphia's lineup, which was depleted by injuries at the time, and took a perfect game into the 9th inning. Yet, Halladay didn't blink. Rather, he tossed nine shutout innings of his own, keeping the game scoreless. The Phillies would eventually win 1-0 in the bottom of the 11th.
While I expect Halladay to "do his thing," run support may well be again prove to be an issue. Since returning from elbow surgery, Volquez's overall numbers are fairly mediocre and his road stats are poor. However, it just took some time for him to get going and, after a brief stint in the minors to work on his mechanics, he's been putting it all together of late.
All four of his September starts were of the "quality" variety and ALL four of them finished UNDER the total. Overall, Volquez allowed just six earned runs through 27 1/3 innings. That translates to an ERA of less than two. Note that he had 27 K's in those 27 innings and that he didn't give up a home run in any of them. His last road start was at Milwaukee on 9/21. He tossed eight complete innings and allowed only three hits and a single earned run.
Volquez knows how important this game is and knows his team is relying on him. While it will be awfully difficult to outpitch Halladay, I do expect him to pitch well. He was quote as saying: "It's an honor for me," Volquez said. "For me it's big because I was out for one year and came back from Tommy John surgery. This is the first game of the playoffs, it's big-time."
Volquez's lone start here at Philadelphia came in June of 2008. He three eight shutout innings with 8 K's and only two walks. The Reds won that game by a score of 2-0.
Looking at some O/U stats and we find that the Phillies have seen the UNDER go 14-4-5 the last 19 times that they played a game with an O/U line of seven or less and that includes a 4-1 mark at home. As for the Reds, they've seen the UNDER go 17-7 their last 24 games played in October and 14-5-1 the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs in the +175 to +200 range. I expect another well-pitched affair.