Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, September 30,2009

ANTONY DINEROFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii at LA Tech
Pick: Under 55
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Louisiana Tech is expecting to control the ball on the ground and keep Greg Alexander and the Hawaii offense off the field, but has been inconsistent moving the ball on the ground. The Warriors' defense hasn't fared badly against the run, which means that if they can manage to tackle well and keep Phillip Livas from burning them on the return game, they should be able to contain LaTech's offense. It's a conference opener, too, so playcalling could be significantly more conservative. Back the under and Alexander's ability to potentially pull this road upset.

Doc’s Sports
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4-Unit Play Take Minnesota Twins -115 over Detroit Tigers
The Twins season comes down to this game. We feel that they will rise to the occasion. They have won 12 of their last 15 games. Today’s starter, Carl Pavano, has won his last four starts. The Tigers counter with rookie Eddie Bonine. The twins beat him 7-0 at the Metrodome on July 2. This will be a good one, and it is on ESPN.
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3-Unit Play Take Cincinnati Reds -110 over St. Louis Cardinals
Bronson Arroyo has a 1.58 ERA in his last nine starts. The Reds have won 7 of their last 8, while the Cards have lost 4 of 5. They have scored just 12 runs in those last 5.
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3-Unit Play Take Kansas City Royals +180 over New York Yankees
The Yankees continue to look invincible right now. They have already claimed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Today we look for them to put out a makeshift lineup. We also don’t believe that Joba Chamberlain is completely out of the woods either. Also looking for the Royals to show some ML pride and bring home a victory.They send out Robinson Tejeda who is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 5.

Brandon Lang

10 Dime: Hawaii

WAYNE ROOT

Football Upset Club

3*Louisiana Tech -4½ over Hawaii

Ben Burns

Annihilator

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Its been a depressing year for the Nationals, as they've got more than 100 (103) losses and have the worst record in baseball. However, they've got a chance to close out their final homestand of the season on a high. In fact, they're in position to earn a rare sweep. With Lannan on the mound, I believe that they they've got an excellent chance to get it done.

While he's had some trouble on the road, Lannan has been a bright spot at home all season. In 16 starts here, he's gone 5-3 with a superb 2.62 ERA, averaging 6 2/3 innings per outing. That's pretty impressive, when considering Washington's overall record. Lannan is off back to back losses - however, he pitched very well in both games and he's got an outstanding 1.89 ERA his last three starts.

Redding has had some success against the Nationals and he beat Lannan two starts ago. However, that was at New York and as already mentioned Lannan has been much better at home.

For the season, Redding has a 5.20 ERA overall and a 5.07 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road. The Mets are 6-10 in his starts. It should also be noted that Redding has an awful 7.57 ERA when pitching during the afternoon this season.

With this being their final home game of the year, the Nationals should have a little more to play for than do the Mets. The Nats should also be motivated to provide Lannan with some support, in return for all the solid work he's given them. I expect Lannan to get the better of Redding in this rematch and for the Nats to send the fans home happy. *7 Annihilator

Run Line GOY Detroit

Tony Salinas

24* Twins (-110) over Tigers
Clear. Winds blowing out to center field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.

23* Brewers (+180) over Rockies
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 20-25 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60

Dave Malinsky

Top of the Ticket - Night

3* TORONTO over BOSTON

The oddsmakers were forced to swing at a knuckleball in this one, perhaps appropriate on a night in which Tim Wakefield takes the mound, and they whiffed badly. That gives us the chance to back one of the best pitchers in the game, and one of the hottest teams in the Majors down the stretch, at a more than fair price against an opponent that will likely field a make-shift lineup. That gets us in the game. Roy Halladay has worked through trade rumors and some physical issues to have another Roy Hallday season. His 16-10/2.90 only tells part of the story ? of the 104 pitchers that have worked at least 120 innings he rates #3 in difficulty of batters faced, which makes those numbers even more impressive. His last nine starts have all come against teams with winning records, yet he has held up brilliantly, including a 1.80 ERA over five September starts in which he has worked three complete games. His pride will show here in a chance to close the season in style, even if it will be a nondescript lineup that he will be facing, and we can count on him to get plenty of support ? in a current 8-1 run the Blue Jays have only lost to Felix Hernandez, scoring 60 runs in the process. That Toronto offensive form is unlikely to be stopped by Tim Wakefield. Wakefield has only worked three times since the All Star break, and only once in that last three weeks, that being a laborious five innings at Kansas City in which he allowed five runs (four earned), and needed 102 pitches to merely get that far. He did not have any control of his knuckler that night, with seven walks vs. only two strikeouts, and that was vs. a young lineup that has rarely seen his stuff. Tonight Toronto can counter with seven starters that have at least 12 career at-bats against him, and with 19 runs on 25 hits already in the series, despite only coming to the plate in 16 innings, there is plenty of momentum to work with. We expect Terry Francona to treat this like an exhibition, especially since his Red Sox have a four-game series vs. Cleveland before going to the playoffs. That makes this at least a 2:1 game in our books, but because of the uniforms involved the oddsmakers can not take it to that level.

Robert Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 Florida at Atlanta

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Milwaukee at Colorado

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 L.A. Dodgers at San Diego

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Houston at Philadelphia

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Minnesota at Detroit

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 St. Louis at Cincinnati

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘over’ 8.5 Oakland at Seattle

Jerrad HendriksonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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G2 Chicago White Sox
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Boston Red Sox +1.5
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Orioles / Rays Over 9

Anthony Redd

15 Dime Louisiana Tech

Sammy Jankus

Reverse Barometer

I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.

4* ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -102

They don't get much easier than this! With the pressure off after clinching the NL Central, St. Louis went through the motions last night and got scalded 7-2 by an inferior Cincinnati team. Why should tonight be any different? The Cards sent a better pitcher to the mound yesterday with Pineiro compared to tonight's starter, a washed-up John Smoltz, while the Reds counter with the ol' pill-popper himself, Bronson "better living through chemistry" Arroyo. With Arroyo fortified by an array of performance-enhancing substances and the Redbirds looking ahead to the playoffs, I'm convinced Cincinnati will take a second straight game from the Cardinals – so your play is on ST. LOUIS.

Chris Jordan

100 Hawaii +4.5

Freddy Wills

Take Hawaii +4.5 (3-Dime National Stage Showdon)(1-5 scale)

I understand it may be hard to over look how much traveling Hawaii has had to do so far this season with their third road game in 4. However, it appears Hawaii is back to their old tricks with their passing game returning to what it was under Colt Brenan, but this time it's under Greg Alexander.

Alexander leads the nation in passing offense with 423 yards per game and they are also first in pass efficiency. They will face a LA Tech secondary that has a lot of question marks. Even their head coach, Derek Dooley, is doubting their abilities "I'm still concerned about our secondary, especially the corner." They are moving a few guys around, from safety to corner, but overall it will be the pass rush that will have to make the difference in this one. However, LA Tech that does feature a stronger pass rush than it has statistically (2 sacks this season), should not be able to get to Alexander mainly because this is an offense that splits 4 WR out and is designed to make quick decisions before a rush can get to Alexander. LA Tech should have it's hands full after allowing 287 yards through air per game in 2008. Granted they have only given up 156/game this year, but that is definitely a mirage as LA Tech has faced two teams that only run in Nichols State, and Navy followed by Auburn who is a run first team as well.

So how else can LA Tech limit the passing game from Hawaii? Well they can definitely run the ball and occupy the time of possession. However, RB Daniel Porter has not been effective only averaging 44.7 yards rushing a game. He will likely have a little more success here against Hawaii than he did against Navy and Auburn, but Hawaii has a solid front 7 that does not allow big running plays and on the season is allowing 126.7 rushing yards per game. Hawaii should be able to do both running and passing on LA Tech and I do not think La Tech can keep up with Hawaii's offense in the end. If Hawaii can keep the ball away from LA Tech's Phil Livas on special teams, who is ranked 7th in punt returns last season and returned one for 85 yards against Navy, then they should win this game outright!

BEN BURNS

Run Line GOY

I'm playing DETROIT ON THE RUNLINE (+1.5 Runs). With the Twins being favored for the game, we're getting a very reasonable price on the Tigers at +1.5 runs. While I expect the Tigers to win, I also believe that this game will likely be close and that having an extra run to work with could prove valuable. Note that both of yesterday's games were decided by a single run, a sign of how close and important this series is. Including yesterday's results, the Tigers are 49-27 at home. The Twins are 37-42 on the road. As their overall records are close, clearly both teams prefer their "home cooking." Note that the Tigers are 6-4 (vs. the moneyline) as home underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. Bonine gets the call for the Tigers and he's been solid as a starter. In three starts, he's got a 3.06 ERA and 1.245 WHIP. He took a loss last time out. However, that was on the road (Tigers are 2-0 in his home starts) and he only allowed two unearned runs and two hits through 6 2/3 innings. Note that all three of his starts have been decided by two runs or less, two of them by a single run. Additionally, note that he'll have the advantage of starting against the Twins for the first time this season. Pavano goes for the Twins and he's admittedly got some great numbers against Detroit. However, this will be the fourth time that the Tigers have faced him since the beginning of August and they just saw him on 9/19, only two starts ago. That should give the hitters an advantage. Actually, Pavano was fortunate to give up only two runs vs. Detroit in that game as he also gave up 11 hits. He was also quite hittable in his most recent start as the lowly Royals got eight hits (two of them HR's) and scored four runs off him in six innings. Overall, he's got a 4.86 ERA incl. a 4.84 ERA on the road. As Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said, "This is playoff baseball - we just got started a little early this year..." With this being "playoff baseball," I expect another close and hard-fought affair and considering the Tigers overall home record, I feel that getting them at +1.5 runs for this price provides us with excellent value. *10 Top Run Line