Dr Bob
Opinion
Hawaii is averaging a healthy 32 points per game, but the Warriors are a much better offensive team than that figure indicates, as they've averaged 517 total yards per game at an incredible 8.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team. Hawaii has had trouble scoring in the red zone (just 3.4 points per opportunity inside the opponent's 20 yard line), but a lot of that is just random variance and I expect Hawaii to be better in that category going forward. Quarterback Greg Alexander, averaging an incredible 9.8 yards per pass play, and the Hawaii offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a bad Louisiana Tech pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass play to 3 teams that would combine to average only 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team. Hawaii's defense hasn't been too much worse than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl) and the Bulldogs' attack has been limited to just 5.5 yppl by teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. In two games against Division 1A teams the Bulldogs have averaged just 3.7 yppl (against Auburn and Navy), so they're struggling offensively. Unfortunately, Hawaii applies to a very negative 66-156-2 ATS situation and a 109-198-6 ATS situation that combine to go 1-12 ATS when both apply to the same team. Still, it's clear to me that Hawaii is the much better team and should be favored in this game. I'll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more based on the line value, but the situational analysis will keep me from making the Warriors a Best Bet.
Mean Green Profit Machine
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Marlins +1.5
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Rangers
Power Play WinsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HAWAII / LOUISIANA TECH OVER 55.5
Rob HomyakFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii vs. La Tech
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Hawaii covered 5 of last 7 as road dog. Tech is 1-3 as a home favorite under Dooley. Since 2002, Tech is 8-26-1 vs. spread in the game following a win. The Warriors lead the all-time series with the Bulldogs by a count of 6-1. Louisiana Tech is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games in September.
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5 Units Hawaii
Tony GeorgeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. Detroit
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Carl Pavano a better pitcher and AGAIN the Twins bullpen available for tonight has an ERA average of 1.95 in their last 3 games as compared to the Tigers which is 5.95! Bullpens win big games this time of the year, and this is more or less a playoff game.
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Play 1 Unit on Minnesota
Mike LinebackFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Red Sox
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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9* NCAAF "SPECIAL PUNI$HER"
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Hawaii vs. La Tech
Play: Hawaii
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For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on Hawaii as it will look to bombard Louisiana Tech with its big guns in its passing game: Both these teams could challenge for the league title, or qualify for a bowl-spot-heading into WAC play, but I believe the Warriors efficient offense will simply be too much for the Bulldogs to handle. Hawaii is having to deal with an extended road trip to start its year, and with big games against Fresno State, Boise State and Nevada upcoming, Wednesdays game vs. Louisiana Tech is crucial to its season. Hawaii has dominated this series since Louisiana Tech joined the WAC in 2001 and the Warriors lead the nation in pass offense at 423.3 yards per game and are first in pass efficiency and sixth in total offense overall. We know the Warriors can score, but Hawaii will have to improve on the defensive side of the ball if they want to win this one; the key will be to stop the run and force the Bulldogs to make mistakes in the air. There are some recent strong ATS trends in favor of the Warriors in this one; Hawaii is 5-1 ATS its last six on the road and 5-2 ATS its last seven when playing Louisiana Tech. It appears on the surface that the Bulldogs have improved their much maligned pass defense from a year ago, but when delving deeper into the stats we see that their 156 yards allowed per game this season is more a mirage than a miraculous turn-around; the reality is the Bulldogs have played three run-dominated teams in Auburn, Navy and Nicholls State. Hawaii will also be looking to establish its run game against Louisiana Tech which is allowing 251.7 yards per and their two sacks on the season rank last in the WAC. It's interesting to note that Louisiana Tech is 0-3 ATS the last two seasons as a 3 1/2 to 10 point favorite. Hawaii is already 1-0 ATS as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points this year, and when we look back further we see that its 3-1 ATS in the same position over the last two seasons. The Warriors 423 passing yards per game will simply be too much for the Bulldogs suspect secondary to handle, and while I won't be shocked to see them win this game outright, let's take the points.
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Hawaii vs. La Tech
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This total is relatively low for this series considering that just two years ago and before the total was set in the 70’s. The biggest for the significant change is the theory that Hawaii doesn’t have an explosive offense anymore. Last season the total was set at 48 when these two teams met, and that game easily went under. However, the Warriors offense is vastly improved this season. Quarterback Greg Alexander is much more comfortable in the offense, and he is one of the nation’s best statistical quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech will look to get their offense going after it sputtered in losses to Auburn and Navy. They should have no problem moving the ball in this game, as the Warriors defense, specifically their pass defense, has struggled this season. They allowed UNLV and Washington State to move the ball rather easily against them, even though most of the Cougars offensive success came after the game was a blowout. Hawaii also has a few injuries on defense which will make things easier for Louisiana Tech to move the ball. I expect this game to be back and forth throughout, with each team matching the other score for score. Even if either team falls behind a significant margin, they both have an offense capable of putting points on the board in bunches. Look for this game to fly over the total.
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3 UNIT SELECTION OVER
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La Tech
Lenny Del GenioFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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15* MLB Underdog of the Week
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Florida vs. Atlanta
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We cashed the Marlins last night, as they snapped the Braves seven-game win streak. Fact is that this is just the wrong opponent for a desperate Atlanta team. Florida excels in the role of spoiler, owning a 6-1 record as an underdog of +175 to +250, yielding a tremendous profit. We have been playing against Atlanta all year long here at Turner Field vs. righties as they continue to set fire to their backers’ money, dropping $1365 for the season. Braves starter Vazquez has been terrible against the Marlins this year, giving up 10 runs in his last 12 innings pitched against them (both team losses). Florida counters with Ricky Nolasco, who not only has given up just five earned runs in his last 14 IP, but he owns a 9-3 TSR in road night games this season. Nolasco also has seen his team win 20 of his 33 starts in the road underdog role, including 15 of 24 on the road. Florida is our 15* MLB Underdog of the Week.
Gamblers Ally
1* La Tech
LT Profits
White Sox/Indians UNDER 9 -120 (GAME #2)
Twins/Tigers UNDER 9.5 -120
Marlins/Braves UNDER 7.5 -110
Maddux Sports
5 units on Hawaii & LA Tech Over 55
3 units on LA Tech -4.5
Eric Degarde
3* Cincinnati -110
2* Minnesota -111
Seabass
50* La Tech -4