SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +133 over PITTSBURGH
The heat is on for the Pirates, who remain very much in the race but are beginning to falter. They’ve lost four of seven and two of three against the D-Backs in a crucial, just completed home series. Meanwhile, the Padres are hot with four wins in a row and five wins in their past six.
Edison Volquez has wicked stuff. He has 125 K’s in 135 innings but his control has prevented him from being among the elite. Volquez has walked 80 batters this season. However it’s getting better and his outstanding 52% groundball rate and 18% line-drive rate rank him among the best in the league in those two important categories. You must get to him early because no pitcher in the league has put up better numbers than Volquez when making it through the order a second and third time.
James McDonald has enjoyed a 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP breakout so far this season but he has hit a wall during the last month. Prior to last year’s 171 innings pitched, MacDonald had never pitched more than 72 innings in a season in his career. With 171 last year and 137 this season, fatigue and durability concerns are arising. MacDonald has been hit hard over his last five starts, surrendering 4, 6, 5, 5 and 3 runs respectively. His BAA over that stretch was .345. The Pirates have lost four of his last five starts and in no way can he be trusted in this range over a very undervalued and talented Edison Volquez.
MINNESOTA +104 over Tampa Bay
The Rays are coming off a sweep of the Blue Jays but Toronto’s offense has been the AL’s worst since the break. Tampa will have no such luck against the Twins. Minnesota has scored the second most runs since the all-star break and owns the AL’s third best OPS at .796.
Cole De Vries has come out of nowhere to post a 3.81 ERA and 1.12 WHIP after his first 59 innings with the Twins. He has relied upon his four-pitch mix and pinpoint control, attributes that were also his calling card in Triple-A. In his last start at Fenway, he went seven full and allowed just four hits and two runs. De Vries will now face a Rays’ club averaging just 2.7 runs per game with an awful .576 OPS over their last 12 games.
Jeremy Hellickson has been on our fade list all season long and for good reason. He’s always outpitched his skills since arriving here and this year is no different. He has a below average groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 39%/21%/40%. His strikeout and walk rates are also below average at 44 BB’s and 76 K’s in 115 frames. His strikeout rate and control ineptitude have been masked by a low hit rate and high strand rate. Hellickson has lived a charmed life for too long and it will eventually catch up to him. He should not be favored on the road pitching for an offense that can’t score runs.
Jimmy Boyd
Seattle Mariners +107
The Mariners are showing value in the underdog role given the advantage they have on the mound with ace Felix Hernandez. The former Cy Young winner has been lights out of late, and the Mariners are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a result. He has allowed 2 runs or less in each of those 5 victories. LA's Ervin Santana hasn't been nearly as sharp. The Angels have lost 5 of his last 7 starts, and he gave up at least 4 runs in 4 of those losses. The Angels are 7-18 in Santana's last 25 starts, 2-9 in his last 11 home starts and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. The Angels are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a favorite. Take Seattle.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -115
The Braves get the nod as our free play Friday. They'll showing value in the small chalk as they have won 12 of their last 15. The Mets have dropped 8 of their last 27. I also love the way Maholm is pitching. He is 6-1 on the money line in his last 7 starts, giving up 1 or no runs in each of those 6 wins. It's also worth mentioning that Atlanta is 14-2 in Friday games this season. Bet the Braves.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
MIAMI -3 over Tampa Bay: Google News Play Both teams are breaking in new coaches and both team have new schemes on both sides of the ball to learn, but i feel that depth at the QB spot clearly goes to the Dolphins. Tampa Bay has a clear cut starter for opening week and that's Josh Freeman. He won't be in there long and behind him is Dan Orlovsky and Brett Ratliff. Not very good QB's, even against 2nd and 3rd team defenses. On the other side of the field we have a Miami team that will be having one of the most heated QB battles in the league. Matt Moore had a solid 12 game performance last year and he was believed to be the front runner, but FA David Garrad may have passed him in camp.Also squarely in the mix is rookie Ryan Tannehill, Miami's first-round selection in April's draft who played under new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman as a collegian at Texas A&M. The talented youngster impressed by going 8-for-10 for 77 yards in Saturday's team scrimmage, and could make one of the two veterans expendable if he proves ready for at least a backup role. Miami has 3 QB's that will be giving 110% in this one and that should prove to be the difference here, especially looking at who the Bucs will sent to the field once Freman is out of there. Miami by a TD here.
Cleveland +3 over DETROIT: The Cleveland Brown are an improved team, but during the course of the regular season they may not get a ton of wins so you can bet they will try for some in the preseason. Detroit on the other hand will have a solid year this year and would like nothing more than to come out of this game and the preseason healthy, so I expect very limited time from their starters. Cleveland has two very young, but talented QB's in Weedon and McCoy that are really looking to display their talents and they should get plenty of chances (Especially McCoy) vs Detroit's 2nd and 3rd team defenses. Last year the Browns were 28th in rushing, but they got a huge upgrade when they signed Trent Richardson and he will be taking on a Detroit team that was 23 vs the nun and 30th vs rush per attempt. Despite their upgrades last year the Tigers were still below average on defense ranking in the bottom 3rd in all major categories, si I expect them to have a hard time stopping Cleveland and have a hard time scoring much with their 2nd and third team offenses in this one as well. Lets also note that Detroit is just 4-9-3 in their last 16 games in opening week of preseason. Cleveland should win this one outright.
Jeff Alexander
LA Dodgers -152
The Dodgers are showing value even a hair over -150 with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound. First off, the Dodgers are 37-14 in their last 51 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 7-3 in their last 10 road games. Secondly, they are 41-18 in Kershaw's last 59 starts and 21-5 in his last 26 starts series-opening starts. LA has won 4 of his last 5 starts, and he has allowed 1 run or fewer in those wins. Miami, meanwhile, is 0-4 in Mark Buehrle's last 4 starts, and he has given up 4 runs or more in 3 of those. Take LA.
Ian Cameron
Saskatchewan at Edmonton
Play: Under 46
I cashed an Under ticket in the first meeting earlier this season between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Edmonton Eskimos in a low scoring 17-1 win for Saskatchewan and I see a similar game unfolding here in the Week 7 rematch tonight.
You could easily say that Saskatchewan has played 18 out of 20 quarters of stellar defense in its first five games. They allowed just 16, 1, and 20 points in their first three games of the season. In their last two games, they had allowed just 14 points to Hamilton and 18 to Calgary after three quarters before the roof caved in defensively in the 4th quarter of both games. It led to consecutive blown double-digit leads and the Roughriders dropped from 3-0 to 3-2. Head coach Cory Chamblin preached to his team throughout their bye week how they needed to learn how to finish games particularly on the defensive side of the football and I would expect the Roughriders to give a tremendous effort on defense for the full 60 minutes against an anemic offense that they already have shut down.
The Edmonton offense needs work…lots of work and it starts with the inadequate production from the quarterback position. Stephen Jyles has struggled all season with accuracy, consistently overthrowing his receivers, and has still yet to develop any sort of chemistry with any of his receivers most notably top option Fred Stamps. I need more than two hands to count the number of plays already this season where Jyles either missed Stamps on an easy throw or they have miscommunication in terms of route running which caused an incomplete pass. Jyles ranks dead last in passing yards with 998 and dead last in touchdowns with just three along with three picks in five games this season. The Eskimos have played five games this season and they haven’t figured things out offensively yet and I’m not sure they will here despite coming off a bye.
It’s also fair to surmise that Saskatchewan won’t be putting up points in bunches here either. They only scored 17 in the previous meeting against Edmonton this season and the Eskimos have been a terrific defense all season. They’ve held their previous opponents to 15, 17, 14 and 23 points this season. It’s worth noting the game in which they allowed 23 points which was a game at Winnipeg was their second straight road game on a short week in tough scheduling spot with their bye week looming. I would expect the bye week to recharge the batteries so to speak of this Edmonton team and it all starts with their defense. The Eskimos know that with all their struggles on offense that it is their stop unit which must carry the mail for them. The Edmonton defensive unit ranks #1 in the CFL for points allowed on the season. They are fueled by a stellar red zone defense that forces teams into kicking field goals as oppose to scoring touchdowns. That strength often makes the difference in cashing any Under bet especially in the CFL where opportunities to score points present themselves more often.
Saskatchewan and Edmonton have seen their last three head-to-head meetings going back to 2011 cruise Under the total. The total has climbed slightly from the opener of 45 to 46. That is a lower total for a league like the CFL but having said that, it's warranted and I think we have enough room to work with here to recommend the Under.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +110 over CHICAGO
In an important series against the reeling Royals at U.S. Cellular Field, the White Sox dropped two of three. Against the league’s worst pitching staff, the South Side managed seven runs in the three game-set. At the same time, the A’s just took two of three from the Angels while scoring 19 times over the past two games.
It’s not uncommon for Gavin Floyd to surrender five runs in a game, especially at home where his ERA is 4.43. Floyd has allowed five runs or more in nine of his 20 starts this year. His strikeout rate is down, his BAA is up and his xERA over the past month covering four starts is 5.99. Floyd is quite possibly suffering the dreaded “dead arm” syndrome.
Brandon McCarthy comes off the DL to make this start, his first since June 19. He had no issues whatsoever in his 25-pitch bullpen session yesterday and is ready to go. Prior to his DL stint, McCarthy two-hit the Dodgers in seven frames and three-hit the Rangers, also covering seven frames. McCarthy has been rock solid with wins over Texas twice, the Red Sox in Boston, the Tigers, the Royals twice and others. He has allowed just two jacks over his last eight starts and the A’s have won his last seven starts. He has outstanding control (19 walks in 78 innings), a groundball bias profile and offers up much value pitching for the hotter team against a faltering Gavin Floyd.
Chuck O'Brien
Scored a free winner on the Baltimore Ravens last night, winning outright in Atlanta over the Falcons. My run is now at 89-55-2, and tonight I look to up that mark with a huge underdog in the Colorado Rockies catching +185 over the San Francisco Giants, and make note I want you listing Tyler Chatwood and Tim Lincecum in this game.
This is a rematch from an earlier-season showdown, as Lincecum got the best of Chatwood and the Rockies. I'm expecting the same revenge Chatwood is with this game.
The young right-hander was effective with a live fastball and above-average breaking ball when he found the strike zone Sunday. He didn't do enough to stick around, as he walked four and allowed three runs (one earned) in 3-1/3 innings before hitting Colorado's 75-pitch target.
Tonight, though, I think he's going to be thinking about that previous loss to the Giants, and will be looking to beat Lincecum on his own field.
San Fran's ace has had an up and down season, with a 6-11 mark and 5.43 ERA. He comes in after allowing two earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts. Prior to his last two outings, however, Lincecum was 1-3 in his previous five with an ERA of 6.84.
This one may shock you boys, but I do like the Rockies.
2♦ COLORADO
Matt Rivers
7-3 free play run after the Nationals-Astros game held Under last night.
I have another free play total tonight, as I like the Over in the Detroit-Texas game to come through.
Max Scherzer and Scott Feldman have the unlikely chore of holding the big bats at bay tonight, and while Feldman has gone 3-0 over his last three starts with an ERA just over one, I have a feeling the Tigers bats will get a few runs off of him this Friday night.
Scherzer has been serving them up of late, allowing 9 runs to score over his last 11-plus innings worked, and sports a 4.72 ERA for the season.
Detroit has played Overs in 6 of their last 8 games, while Texas has been Over the total in 3 of their last 4 games and 5 of their past 8 overall.
Series meetings show the Over having come in 7 of the last 10 meetings - including last year's ALCS.
Have to look for the runs to pile up here.
Go Over in Detroit and Texas tonight in Arlington.
2♦ DETROIT-TEXAS OVER
Dom Chambers
For today’s free play, let’s go with the Washington Nationals on the road to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Stephen Strasburg starts for the Nationals. He has been outstanding this season.
Overall, he is 12-5 with a 2.97 ERA and 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA on the road.
Two starts ago, Strasburg had a tough outing giving up six runs to the Philadelphia Phillies. But he bounced back with a six-inning performance againstMiami where he did not give up a run.
Trevor Cahill starts for the D-Backs. He is 9-9 with a 3.76 ERA. At home, he is 4-5 with a 4.87 ERA.
The Nationals have been hot, winning seven straight and look to tad to that streak.
The D-Backs have been struggling, losing four of their last six games.
The Nationals are getting it done and finding the way to win games.
Take the Nationals.
3♦ NATIONALS
Craig Davis
My free play runs stands at 56-38.
Friday's free play is the Atlanta Braves.
New York starter Matt Harvey will be making his first home start since being called up from Triple A. That's right... all three of his previous starts have been on the road... and the results haven't been too bad. Granted, when you pitch in New York, sometimes you'd rather pitch on the road. At least there they cheer you when you fail.
The Mets have at least two things going against them right off the bat. For starters, they won just one home game over the last 31 days. Secondly, they have dropped five straight to Atlanta and 10 of their last 14.
And since July 24, the Braves, as a team, are hitting almost .300 (.299) with runners in scoring position in winning 12 of 15 games. That's impressive. And considering they're facing a young, inexperienced pitcher like Harvey, who has struggled in his last two starts despite dominating his first one, I like my chances for the Braves bats to jump on him early.
Paul Maholm starts for the Braves tonight after being dealt from the Cubs right before the deadline. Despite losing his one-and-only start in a Braves uniform (in a game where he was quite good but didn't get any support), he's still 5-1 with a 1.41 ERA over his last seven starts. I'll take it.
This one could get ugly in a hurry. Take the Braves as your free play of the day.
2♦ ATLANTA
Chuck O'Brien
Scored a free winner on the Baltimore Ravens last night, winning outright in Atlanta over the Falcons. My run is now at 89-55-2, and tonight I look to up that mark with a huge underdog in the Colorado Rockies catching +185 over the San Francisco Giants, and make note I want you listing Tyler Chatwood and Tim Lincecum in this game.
This is a rematch from an earlier-season showdown, as Lincecum got the best of Chatwood and the Rockies. I'm expecting the same revenge Chatwood is with this game.
The young right-hander was effective with a live fastball and above-average breaking ball when he found the strike zone Sunday. He didn't do enough to stick around, as he walked four and allowed three runs (one earned) in 3-1/3 innings before hitting Colorado's 75-pitch target.
Tonight, though, I think he's going to be thinking about that previous loss to the Giants, and will be looking to beat Lincecum on his own field.
San Fran's ace has had an up and down season, with a 6-11 mark and 5.43 ERA. He comes in after allowing two earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts. Prior to his last two outings, however, Lincecum was 1-3 in his previous five with an ERA of 6.84.
This one may shock you boys, but I do like the Rockies.
2♦ COLORADO
Chris Jordan
Free pick run is at 33-18 after scoring with the Chicago Cubs yesterday, getting it done over the Cincinnati Reds. Today I am putting my money on another underdog, as I like the Cleveland Indians to get it done over the Boston Red Sox.
Not sure what has taken place with the Beantown boys, but they come into this one on a three-game slide. Just the same, I'm not sure what has gotten into the Tribe, but suddenly after an 11-game losing skid, it'll try to win its third straight - something it hasn't done since July 3-5.
Now I realize Boston starter Clay Buchholz is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA over his last four starts, but his team is not playing up to par, plus, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.32 ERA in four career starts against the Indians. Back on May 11, he allowed four runs and eight hits in 6-1/3 innings of a 7-5 victory... but with that win, came the runs and hits from Cleveland.
I can't hurt to take a shot with young Chris Seddon, who might be 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA as a starter for three different teams, but did take the mound against Boston thrice as a reliever in 2010 while playing with Seattle, pitching 4-2/3 hitless innings.
I'm taking a shot here with Cleveland.
3♦ CLEVELAND