Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 13,2010

Tony Stoffo
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Atlanta Falcons -3
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Mike Smith in his two years as head coach of the Falcons has sure had his team ready to play in the preseason with 2 ATS wins in their opener. Well tonight one of the worst preseason teams in the Kansas City Chiefs pays a visit to Atlanta. Even with a total management change last season the Chiefs went 0-4 in the preseason which continued a run that has seen Kansas City go 1-11 ATS the last three years. Until we see a major change we will again have to fade the Chiefs in every game they play this preseason. So let's lay the number here as the Falcons roll to the convincing win here tonight.

Marc Lawrence
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
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When Arizona sends Joe Saunders to the hill against John Lannan in the nation's capitol this evening he will do so knowing he owns a 3.67 career ERA in his eight career road team starts during the month of August. better yet, Saunders' road number are superior to his home numbers this season (3.45 ERA as opposed to 5.18 at home) while Lannan's home numbers are inferior to his road numbers (5.80 ERA with a sky-high 1.934 WHIP). With that look for Lannan to slip to 6-11 during the month of August while Saunders improves to 2-0 in his career starts against the Nats here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

Tom Freese
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Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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St. Louis starter Jake Westbrook has pitched well in his two starts with the Cardinals allowing 5 runs total. The Cardinals are 35-16 their last 51 home games and they are 23-9 their last 32 games vs. righty starters. The Redbirds are 7-2 following a day off and they are 5-1 their last 6 home games with a Cubs. Chicago starter Thomas Diamond has allowed 8 runs in 9.1 innings of work in his two starts this year. The Cubs are 3-14 their last 17 games overall and they are 1-8 their last 9 road games vs. righty starters and they are 0-11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their last game.

Steve Merril

Orioles @ Rays
PICK: Over 8.5
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The suddenly hot Orioles continue their road trip as they take on the Rays in Tampa. Jeremy Guthrie gets the start for Baltimore. He's 6-11 with a 4.04 ERA in 23 starts this season. On the road, Guthrie has just one win in 11 starts. The righty is 2-7 with a 4.52 ERA in 11 starts against the Rays in his career. Guthrie made two April starts against them and gave up six runs and 16 hits in 13.3 innings of work. Carl Crawford (12-35), BJ Upton (9-26), Ben Zobrist (4-12), Reid Brignac (5-9), Willy Aybar (3-8), and Matt Joyce (2-6) have had success against the Orioles starter. The Baltimore bullpen has an ERA around 4.50 on the road and they have a losing record as well. Tampa Bay is averaging 4.9 runs per game over their last seven games.
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Tampa Bay’s James Shields is 2-1 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts. The righty has given up 10 runs and 22 hits over his last 18 innings pitched. This includes a terrible outing in Toronto where he gave up eight runs and nine hits in four innings of work. Shields has faced the Orioles twice giving up seven runs and 17 hits in 12.3 innings pitched. Nick Markakis (15-49), Luke Scott (9-27), Adam Jones (10-22), Ty Wigginton (3-6), and Matt Wieters (2-6) all hit Shields well. Baltimore has suddenly discovered an offense as they are hitting .300 over their last eight games, and we expect that continue here so we’ll recommend playing the Over tonight between the Orioles and Rays.

Carlo Campanella
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Buffalo vs. Washington
Play: Washington -3
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Washington opens their preseason on Friday night hosting Buffalo, as the Redskins look to rebuild after a disappointing 4-12 SU record during the 2009 season. Owner Dan Snyder brings in former Broncos Head Coach Mike Shannahan to revamp the team. You can tell the organization is a "win now" mode as they have finally given up on the underachieving QB Jason Campbell while opting to sign veteran Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb. Along with the signing of QB McNabb, the Redskins made 16 other roster additions, including RBs Larry Johnson and Willie Parker and WRs Bobby Wade and Joey Galloway. The Redskins' defense was a solid unit that ranked 10th overall in yards allowed last season and they bolstered that unit with 6 new players to add to the acquisition of DT Albert Haynesworth last year. Expect Buffalo, who was just 3-5 SU on the road last season, to have a hard time moving the ball on this Redskins defensive unit. Not only has Buffalo fired their fourth coach since the 2000 season, they'll try and revamp the offense with new Head Coach Chan Gailey's offensive system. Last year's offense averaged only 16 points per game and ranked 30th in passing yards as they rotated between QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. The passing game will only get worse as they lost leading WR Terrell Owens to the Bengals and now these 2 young QBs, who both threw more interceptions than touchdowns, must play their first game in a new system. Both teams in the rebuilding stages, but Washington is starting from a much better place.

Rob Vinciletti
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Padres vs. Giants
Play: Over 7½
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This game fits a nice system here tonight that plays to the over for home teams with a total of 8 or less that are off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs and the opponent is off a home win and scored 4 or less runs. The pitching matchup also suggests an over as J. Sanchez for the Giants has played to the over in 11 of 13 night games and has a 5.06 era over his past 3 starts, going over in his last 4 starts. SD has C. Richard to counter. O ver his last 3 Richard has struggled to a 6.00 era. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.

James Patrick Sports
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Mariners vs. Tribe
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The Seattle Mariners draw a tough assignment as they face Cleveland's Fausto Carmona in Friday Major League Baseball action. The Mariners are just (15-42) on the road their past (57) contests and (1-5) in their past (6) games with the Tribe. Big Game James Patrick's Friday complimentary selection in Big League action is Cleveland Indians.

EZWINNERS
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Atlanta Braves -155
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Its hard to find a anyone pitching better right now than Atlanta's starting pitcher Tim Hudson. The veteran right hander is having an outstanding season for the Braves posting a 13-5 record with an ERA of just 2.24. Over his last four starts Hudson has even improved on his season numbers posting a 4-0 with a sparkling 0.63 ERA! Hudson is showing the baseball world that he can still be a dominant pitcher at age 35. The Dodgers starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda has had an up and down season and over his last three starts Kuroda is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.76. Los Angeles is struggling to score runs so I do not expect the Dodgers to provide Kuroda with much run support espically with Tim Hudson as the opposing pitcher. Kuroda has only won once in his last seven starts and I don't see that trend changing today. The Dodgers are 2-5 in the last seven meetings in Atlanta and only 1-6 in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record. The Braves have been red hot at home posting a 37-14 record in their last fifty one home games. Play on Atlanta.

CAJUN SPORTS
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Florida Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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The Florida Marlins head west from Washington for a weekend series in the Queen City versus the host Cincinnati Reds. The Marlins are 29-27 on the highway this season and 35-44 versus right-handed starters. When facing right-handed starters the Marlins average 4.6 runs per game with a batting average of .254. Florida will send Josh Johnson to the bump knowing they are only 3-6 (-4.6 units) when he takes the hill on the road. Over his last three outings, they are 1-2 and his ERA is 4.35 in those games. Cincinnati is 33-26 in the Queen City and 45-34 facing right-handed starters. Their numbers are better than the Marlins as they average 4.9 runs per game and have a batting average of .275 versus right-handers. Edison Volquez takes the mound for Cincinnati he is 1-0 his last three starts with an ERA of 3.52 and the Reds are 3-0 in those games. Volquez has also proven to be a tough out for the Marlins going 3-0 against them with an ERA of 1.80. We look for the Reds to capture a victory on Friday night in the Queen City.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Cincinnati Reds 5 Florida Marlins 4

Gill Alexander
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PHI -3 vs JAC
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We had the Ravens last night as a preseason winner over the Panthers and tonight, I like this line even better. The Eagles are a 3 point favorite in a typically lazy preseason line in Philly. Besides the fact that the Jags typically don't perform well in the exhibition season (5-11 ATS the last 4 seasons) they're coming into a stadium of Philly fans who are about to witness Part 1 of God knows how many chapters in what I believe will be a massive quarterback controversy this season. As far as the preseason, though, and especially in a home opener, that lines up brilliantly for Philadelphia backers tonight. Expect Kevin Kolb in his first appearance as the bonafide Eagles starter to perform admirably on that stage and for Michael Vick to get an extended amount of snaps in the backup role. Andy Reid will be eager to prove to fans that all will be well in Philly this season, without Donovan McNabb or Brian Westbrook, and he'll definitely look to make it with the first impression in this preseason opener, playing to win. Let's try to make it two NFL preseason wins in a row.

John Ryan
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New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
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5* graded play on Kansas City as they take on the Yankees set to start at 8:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a significant probability that the Royals can win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 156-177 making 80.7 units since 2004. Play against all favorites with a money line of -150 or more averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season and after a win by 2 runs or less. The Yankees won 4-3 last night in game one of this series against the Royals. Kyle Davies has done his best pitching against the best teams like the Yankees. He has posted a 9-1 (+12.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team winning more than 62% of their games in any one season since 1997; 11-4 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 12-6 (+12.2 Units) against the money line against AL East opponents since 1997. Take the Royals.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -154
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First off, the Athletics are just 3-7 in their last 10 meetings in Minnesota. Secondly, the Twins have the edge on the hill with Pavano, who is 14-7 with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.083 on the season. His low WHIP is significant because Oakland is 0-15 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 3 seasons, losing in these situations by an average score of 1.9 to 6.5. The Twins are also 6-1 in Pavano's last 7 starts. Plus, they'll gladly welcome the lefty Gonzalez to the hill when you consider that they are 5-1 in their last 6 versus a lefty starter and 43-17 in their last 60 home games vs. a southpaw starter. Take the Twins.

Lenny Del Genio
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Mariners at Indians
Prediction: Under
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Two of the worst hitting teams in baseball meet tonight in Cleveland when the Indians host the M's. Seattle comes into this game hitting .235 and scoring 3.2 runs per game while the Indians are at .247 and scoring 4.0 runs per contest. Carmona starts for Cleveland tonight and he's been a bit shaky in his last three starts, but those were against Minnesota, Boston and the Yankees. Despite a 6.88 ERA in those last three outings he still has an impressive 3.90 ERA on the season. The Cleveland righty has pitched very well against this weak hitting Seattle team posting a 2.18 ERA in his three starts. Pauley gets the start for Seattle and it will be his sixth start of the season. In his first five he's pitched ok, not great, with a 4.01 ERA. This will the Indians first time facing Pauley so we believe he'll hold the Indians in check. Seattle has gone under five straight and seven of the last nine, and we see another low scoring game tonight. Play Cleveland and Seattle under.

LEE KOSTROSKI

Florida Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
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Cincinnati just endured a depressing three-game series at home against the Cardinals in which the Reds were swept and knocked out of the NL Central lead. An off day Thursday should prepare the team with great motivation for the opening match-up in the next series. The Reds are still a strong home performer with a 33-26 record and a .277 team average at home. Cincinnati?s record this season has been built on beating up on bad teams like the Cubs and the Astros but the series loss to the Cardinals was the first series loss at home in the past six series. Cincinnati is also still 15-10 since the All Star break.
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Josh Johnson presents a challenging match-up as the Marlins ace owns one of the top ERAs in baseball. Johnson has just ten wins on the season however and his ERA is nearly double in road games. Florida is just 3-6 in his nine road starts and he owns just one road win in the past two months. Johnson went just six innings in his lone start against the Reds this season and Cincinnati has gone 45-34 against right-handed starters for the year.
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The Reds have out-scored foes by 77 runs on the season compared to just an eleven run edge for the Marlins. Florida is a much better team against left-handed pitching for the season, going just 35-44 for the year versus right-handed starters. The Marlins are hitting just .233 in the past ten games despite going 5-5 and Florida is hitting just .218 in that span against right-handed pitching. The Marlins also did not enjoy the off day that Cincinnati had, playing a night game in Washington Thursday night.
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Edinson Volquez could be a key piece for the Reds in their stretch run. Back from major surgery after missing most of 2009, the Reds have gone 4-1 in the five Volquez starts this season. In three of his five starts he has allowed just one run and he has not allowed more than six hits in any start. His minor league numbers were outstanding and while it has taken some time to find his command, Volquez appears to be close to form coming off back-to-back excellent outings. Volquez pitched eight innings of shutout ball the last time he faced the Marlins and the Cincinnati bullpen owns a 2.53 ERA over the last ten games.