BIG AL
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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There hasn't been much good news for the boys from Anaheim in 2010, but one very positive thing happened recently when lefthander Scott Kazmir came back from almost a month on the shelf to rest his fatigued arm, and the former ace had one of his best starts of the season as the Angels crushed the Tigers last Saturday and Kazmir allowed no runs on just three hits in five innings, and perhaps best of all, he only thew 76 pitches in that one. If Kazmir can get back to the form of a few years ago (or even just close to it), the Angels just might be able make a run at the division lead before all is said and done. This will be Kazmir's first home start since the end of June, and it comes against a team he's had a moderate amount of success against in his career as despite a 4-4 record against the Jays, Kazmir has a 3.86 ERA and 93 strikeouts and 84 innings. He will face another lefthander in Marc Rzepczynksi who will be recalled from the minors to make this start in Anaheim tonight. Rzepczynski was demoted after just four appearances (two starts) and an ugly 7.15 ERA and unfortunately for Toronto, the man with the toughest last name in baseball didn't do a whole lot to instill confidence while he was down at Triple-A ball, surrendering nine earned runs in just 18 1/3 innings while pitching for Las Vegas. Take the Angels.
JR O'Donnell
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JAC (+165) vs PHI
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We are based near Philly and we have spent a lot of time @ Lehigh Eagles camp. RZ has sliced and diced the Eagles camp so far and the pure fact is that Andy Reid is a terrible 1st game coach in his long tenure here at the Lincoln Financial field. Jacksonville wants to win and instill a wining attitude and we feel the Jags will be more focused tonight. Our camp has the line @ pickem tonight as the Jags will show some real effort. Coach Jack Del Rio was impressed with the squads effort @ Atlanta. He will to look to shore up the offensive line and play some key O Line men deep into the game. The key to winning preseason is picking spots and we will fade the Birds tonight. Jax baby wins outright
SPORTS WAGERS
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Seattle +1.46 over CLEVELAND
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The Indians simply cannot be trusted as a significant favorite and betting them as such is a big risk that should be avoided. The Tribe scratch and claw for every run they push across and they lose way more games than they win. They’re hitting a combined .232 over its last 15 games and that’s after playing all 15 games at hitter’s parks. The Mariners haven’t been much better, however, they play at a much more difficult park and they’re not laying –1.55. David Pauley is 0-4 and that’s one of the reason’s the M’s are such a big dog. Apart from 2008, which was likely affected by the fact that Pauley worked more as a reliever than a starter, he has demonstrated remarkable consistency in his skills. Pauley has a very respectable 3.38 ERA and a just as respectable BAA of .252. Pauley has worked exclusively as a starter in the minors, but he's been a swingman in the majors, with eight career starts and seven career relief appearances. The Cliff Lee trade opened up a spot in the rotation for him, and given that two of his competitors (Luke French and Ryan Rowland-Smith) are sporting ERAs and xERAs over 6.00, he may be able to hang in there for a while. At 27, Pauley offers no real upside beyond what we're seeing right now, but he's at least worthy of consideration in the right spot and at this price against this team, this is one of those spots. Fausto Carmona has been tagged for 28 hits in his last 17 innings. At home he’s walked 34 batters and struck out 44. Carmona has had one good year in the majors and that came in ’07 when he posted an ERA of 3.06. In his other three seasons in the majors his ERA was over 5.00 each time. Of course the Indians can win this game, as the Mariners are a bad baseball team. However, in terms of value, one has to consider that the M’s chances of winning this one are equally as good as the Indians chances, thus creating the big overlay. Play: Seattle +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
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Arizona +1.05 over WASHINGTON
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The Nats were just swept by the Marlins and were outscored 22-7 in the three-game set. Washington has now lost five in a row and six of seven and they’ll play to another tiny crowd tonight. This is a team that is playing out the string and a team with no value whatsoever with John Lannan on the hill. Arizona has a league-high .801 OPS against LHP this season, which is notable considering that Lannan is a southpaw. Lannan has more walks (38) than strikeouts (29), he has an off-the-charts WHIP of 1.79, a BAA of .321 and things get even worse when he pitches at RFK. In fact, Lannan has a BAA of .355 at home after allowing 55 hits in 35 frames. Meanwhile, the D-Backs are coming off a series in Milwaukee in which they took three of four and scored 21 runs in the four-game set. Arizona has won six of its last eight games and seem to be responding under the tutelage of its new manager, Kirk Gibson, a guy who always hated to lose. Joe Saunders has allowed two runs or less in five of his last eight starts. That includes a seven hit, one run, seven-inning gem at Texas. He threw a complete game, five-hitter against these same Nats just 10 days ago and while he may not duplicate that here, he’s still has way more value as a dog than Lannan has as the chalk. Play: Arizona +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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HOUSTON –1½ +1.35 over Pittsburgh
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The first thing to note here is that the Pirates are an incredible 7-33 on the road against righties. That’s a number that should not be ignored and they’ll face a beauty here. Through 23 starts Brett Myers has a 3.21 ERA, 119 K’s and a 1.22 WHIP. Myers has pitched at least six full innings in all 23 of his starts and is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA over his last three. The Astros are 7-0 at home this year vs the Pirates and have outscored them 33-13. Houston leads the NL in runs scored in August and they’ll face a guy they’ve absolutely crushed. Russ Ohlendorf is 0-6 with a 7.49 ERA in seven starts against Houston, including 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in two starts this season. The Pirates have dropped seven straight on the road and there’s no reason to believe that skid ends here. Play: Houston –1½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
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Toronto +1.15 over L.A. ANGELS
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Scott Kazmir returned to the rotation this past week with a decent start in Detroit. Big deal. Kazmir's season has been a disastrous one and he has yet to show any consistent skills this year that could indicate he will turn the remainder of his season around. Prior to that start against the Tigers, Kazmir allowed 30 ER in 18 IP and at home this season he’s sporting a 7.28 ERA and a BAA of .313. Current Jays hitter’s have seen him plenty of times over the years and that’s when he was good. Those days are gone. The Jays are coming off series against the Yanks, Rays and Red Sox in which they won six of nine including a dramatic win yesterday. In terms of offense, they’re as good as any team in the business and than some. Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion and Travis Snyder are all hot and they join a few other hot bats in this potent line-up. The Angels are not much of a threat against lefties and will face a slew of them here beginning tonight with Marc Rzepczynski. Pay no attention to Rzepczynski’s 7.15 ERA. This guy is an elite groundball pitcher and was impressive last season with a 50% ground ball rate and a 3.67 ERA in 61.1 innings. The Jays chances of winning are actually better than the Angels based on everything and the fact that we can take a tag on them here seals the deal. Definite overlay. Play: Toronto +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Bryan Leonard
Florida Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Florida Marlins
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The Reds really made a big deal about the St Louis series and they fell flat on their faces dropping all three games. We're not sure this team with a very young pitching staff will be able to bounce back quickly. Tonight they face perhaps the Cy Young frontrunner as Josh Johnson takes the hill for Florida. The big man has a 2.81 ERA on the road this year and the Marlins have won both of his career starts against the Reds. In those two games he permitted just 3 earned runs in 13.1 innings.
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Cincinnati will counter with Edison Volquez who makes his sixth start since coming off the DL. He's had just two quality starts on the season and his control numbers are alarming. After his initial start against Colorado he has posted a 15 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio in his last five starts.
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Florida comes into this game having won their last four decisions and they own the superior pitcher. Look for Cincinnati to still feel the effects of the Cardinals series as the Marlins continue their solid recent play.
Rocketman
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Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
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Detroit is 55-59 overall on the season while Chicago White Sox come in with a 64-51 overall record this year and sitting a game behind Minnesota in the AL Central race. Detroit is 83-104 against division opponents the past 3 years. Detroit is 9-33 last 3 years and 2-9 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +150. Detroit is 4-15 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Detroit has lost 9 of their last 12 games overall. Detroit is only 17-35 overall on the road this year where they are scoring only 3.8 runs per game. Jeremy Bonderman is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA on the road this year. Mark Buehrle owns a 5-2 record at home this year. Chicago White Sox has won 6 of 8 games overall vs Detroit this season. Buehrle is 15-8 with a 2.95 ERA overall vs Detroit since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago White Sox tonight!
Tony George
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CWS (-150) vs DET
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Detroit in a funk, Sox pissed after getting waxed by Minny last night, and they are at home. Bonderman for Detroit has a 6.11 ERA on the road this year. Have no doubts, Detroit has fallen from grace HUGE.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -105
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The Brewers have not had much luck with the Rockies. In fact, they have lost 9 of the last 12 overall meetings, and 22 of the last 30 meetings in Colorado. I don't expect Milwaukee's luck to change with Gallardo on the hill. The Brewers' righty is 0-3 (0-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 7.40 in 4 career starts against the Rockies. Meanwhile, the Rockies are an impressive 15-3 in the lefty De La Rosa's last 18 home starts. You also have to like the fact that the Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Rockies at home tonight.
Teddy Covers
Yankees @ Royals
Pick: Yankees -1.5
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When Kyle Davies faced the Yankees last month, he was in trouble in every inning. Davies allowed three home runs and ten baserunners before getting knocked out of the box after 5.1 innings of work, but he managed to avoid disaster and actually came away with the victory in that game. Davies has struggled against the Bronx Bombers potent lineup before, with a career ERA of 6.00 against New York. Facing the Yanks in a second look, short turnaround situation, expect Davies to get lit up again tonight. Behind him, the Royals tired, ineffective bullpen is not primed to shut New York down in the latter stages of the game.
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Kansas City isn’t hitting these days after dismantling their lineup at the trading deadline once again this year. They’ve scored 0, 3, 3, 1, 2, 2, 4, 1, 1 and 3 runs in their last ten games; an average of just two runs per contest. Don’t expect much offensive success here against Dustin Moseley. Moseley shut down the Red Sox in his last outing; his second quality start in three tries since joining the rotation. He faced KC in a long relief situation last month, holding the Royals to a single hit in 4.2 innings of work. Derek Jeter, talking about Moseley: “He throws a lot of strikes, works quick. He’s going to make you hit his pitch and he’s not going to walk too many guys. He challenges guys. He knows how to pitch.” That’s a recipe for beating KC by margin. 2* Take the Yankees (Run Line).
Sean Murphy
Bills @ Redskins
PICK: Over 32.5
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This is a rare opening week preseason tilt where both teams are determined to get into the win column.
Both are ushering in new eras, with the Bills turning to Chan Gailey to lead them back to prominence, and the Redskins handing the reins over to a proven winner in Mike Shanahan.
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I expect to see both sides play more aggressively than we've come to expect in a preseason game, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, where both are hoping to make major strides this season.
Both teams possess plenty of depth at the quarterback position. The Bills will start Trent Edwards and follow with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, and Levi Brown. Brohm and Brown certainly aren't household names, but the former got his feet wet in the Packers organization, and actually started a game for the Bills last season. Levi Brown has a strong arm, and could challenge Brohm for a position on the team in his rookie year out of Troy.
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The Redskins made one of the biggest moves of the off-season, acquiring Donovan McNabb. He'll only make a cameo appearance in this one, but will certainly want to get off on the right foot with his new team. After McNabb, Rex Grossman will see significant time. For all of his struggles, he has had some success in previous preseasons. Not surprisingly, he's done a good job against second-string defenses. The second half should belong to John Beck and Richard Bartel. Both have had significant preseason experience with the Dolphins and Cowboys respectively, and should be able to move the ball consistently against back lines of the Bills defensive depth chart.
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Most are expecting a dull affair in Washington on Friday, but I think we'll see just the opposite, as both squads go on the attack in this non-conference matchup. Take the over.
LARRY NESS
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Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
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The Red Sox and Rangers open a three-game series in Arlington with both teams coming off 'stinging' losses. Boston was three outs away from a three-game sweep in Toronto but saw the Jays score four times in the bottom of the ninth inning on Thursday afternoon, as closer Jonathan Papelbon suffered his AL-worst sixth blown save in a 6-5 loss. The Red Sox now trail Tampa Bay by four games for the wild card spot. The Rangers led the Yankees 6-1 on Wednesday night in the sixth inning with ace Cliff Lee on the mound but lost 7-6 when the Yanks scored twice in the top of the ninth. However, Texas is in much better "postseason shape" than Boston, as the Rangers own MLB's biggest division lead, 7 1/2 games up on the Angels. Boston has been a playoff regular this past decade (won World Series titles in 2004 and 2007) but Texas last made the postseason back in 1999. The Rangers have struggled vs the AL East in 2010 (10-17) but Texas is 37-22 at home this year, averaging 5.44 RPG. On the mound will be Tommy Hunter, who is 9-1 with a 3.01 ERA in 12 starts (team is 10-2), including 6-0 with a 2.53 ERA in seven home starts (team is 6-1). Since joining the Red Sox prior to the 2006 season, Boston is 88-55 (.615) in all of Josh Beckett's starts (including the postseason) but 2010 has not been a good one for Beckett. He's 3-2 with a 6.21 ERA in 12 starts this season (spent about two months on the DL) and after going 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in his first three starts since getting off the DL (team was 3-0), allowed seven ERs and a season-high 11 hits over 4.2 innings of a 7-2 road loss to the Yankees last Sunday. Beckett owns a 6.23 ERA in seven road starts this season and Texas has won 11 of 16 meetings against Boston since the beginning of last season, including a 5-1 mark here in Arlington last season vs the Red Sox. Take Texas.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
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When Arizona sends Joe Saunders to the hill against John Lannan in the nation's capitol this evening he will do so knowing he owns a 3.67 career ERA in his eight career road team starts during the month of August. better yet, Saunders' road number are superior to his home numbers this season (3.45 ERA as opposed to 5.18 at home) while Lannan's home numbers are inferior to his road numbers (5.80 ERA with a sky-high 1.934 WHIP). With that look for Lannan to slip to 6-11 during the month of August while Saunders improves to 2-0 in his career starts against the Nats here tonight. We recommend a play on Arizona.
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Play on: Arizona Diamondbacks
Stan Lisowski
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Atlanta Falcons
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Kansas City has dropped 9 of their last 10 as a preseason underdog. Last year, Haley’s Chiefs went 0-4 straight up and ATS. Atlanta has looked sharp in camp and scrimmages so far.
Sac Lawson
PHI (-123) vs NYM
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Philly has seen R.A. Dickey a few times now this year, and that alone is a huge advantage. They got to him just five days ago for a handful of runs, and if there is one thing we know it's that the more you see a Knuckler, the easier it gets to hit. Every knuckle-baller is different, so specifically the fact that the Phillies just faced Dickey a few days back is key.
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On the other side, Hamels has had a solid summer, and has been the victim of some extremely tough luck in his starts against the Mets. He's got an ERA of around 2.0, yet hasn't won against the Mets this season. Simply not getting run support.
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I do think the Phills will give Hamels run support tonight, because I do think that their increased familiarity with Dickey will really change their approach at the plate. On top of that, I expect Hamels to continue being Hamels. Take the Phillies for a unit.
DWAYNE BRYANT
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ANGELS -118
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Backing Kazmir is pretty scary, but like I said, this is just a small wager. I was encouraged by his performance last time out. Kaz returned to the rotation six days ago and held the Tigers to an unearned run in and three hits in five innings of work. The Jays have trouble hitting lefties (.220 BA, 3.2 rpg on the road), and I expect Kaz to keep his positive momentum going at home tonight. Rzepczynski has been hit hard in his two starts this season, so I expect the Angels to give Kaz plenty of run support. The Jays are 1-6 in Rzepczynski's last 7 road starts, the Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a day off, and the Angels have won five of six meetings this season. Definitely worth a small wager on the Angels & Kazmir tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
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WINNIPEG –4½ over Hamilton
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This will be the fourth time in seven weeks that these two have hooked up. Each team has won its home games, including last week’s 29-22 victory by the Ti-Cats. That was the closest one of the trio with Hamilton being quite fortunate to not only win but to cover. They outscored Winnipeg 9-0 in the fourth quarter and the game ended with Winnipeg on the Hamilton two-yard line. The Bombers are the only team the Cats have been able to defeat this season and both occurred at Ivor Wynn. Hamilton has yet to win away from its own venue. Winnipeg outplayed them, outgained them, out-rushed them and has more offensive weapons to defeat them. The Tiger-Cats are one-dimensional. They have a weak running game and that allows the Bombers to focus upon containing Arland Bruce, as he shredded Winnipeg’s defense for 197 yds. The Bombers can run the ball with Fred Reid. Reid is fourth in the CFL in yards but has carried the ball less times than the three backs in front of him. The Ti-Cats defense is a susceptible group. They give up a ton of big plays and a ton of yards after the catch. This is an area the Bombers can exploit. They did so last week and they can do it again with an explosive Terrence Edwards, et al. A moderate Stephen Jyles went 24-35 last week in Hamilton for 349 yards but Winnipeg gets its best pivot back as Buck Pierce returns to captain the host squad. Under Pierce, the Bombers have scored 49, 34 and 47 points respectively in its three home games this year. Expect more of the same here. Play: Winnipeg –4½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2)