Brandon Shively
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Washington Nationals -148
I like the Nationals here with Scherzer on the mound. When laying money on the road we need a pitcher that we can rely on and Scherzer is that guy as he has a 1.87 ERA/ 0.82 WHIP. With Storen and Papelbon in line for the late innings, I see this game being dominated by the Nationals pitching rotation. The Giants will have Matt Cain on the mound and he has been terrible since returning to the rotation. Cain has a 5.59 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. In 5 of his 7 starts he has allowed 4 ER or more. Cain does not have the strikeout power anymore and is often making too many mistakes and opposing hitters are tearing him up. The Nationals have now slid into 2nd place in the division as they are chasing the Mets. Manager Matt Williams said he might tweak the lineup tonight to look for an increase in offense. Look for the Nationals to be aggressive when Cain is throwing his fastball in this game. I think the Nationals score at least 4 runs in this game and that will be enough to protect Scherzer. The Giants are only scoring 2.7 runs a game over their L7 games so their offense is not a threat right now. Pagan and Aoki (2 starters are on the DL). In 6 road starts this season when Scherzer has been a -140 + road favorite, the Nationals are 5-1. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in these 6 starts either.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Under in the weekend opener between the Yanks and the Jays.
As Yogi said, "it's deja vu all over again", as New York was blanked in 2 of 3 meetings last weekend in the Bronx, all 3 of those games holding Under the total.
It is Ivan Nova and David Price in a rematch of Toronto's 6-0 win last week. Price going the distance in blanking the Yanks, while Nova made one big mistake on a salami he served up to Justin Smoak.
Both hurlers have seen 2 of their last 3 starts hold Under the total, and the teams have now played Unders in each of the last 4 series meetings, and 5 of the last 6 overall.
I don't expect too many runs tonight.
Yanks-Jays pick up where they left off, with another series Under.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-TORONTO UNDER
Jeff Saad
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Washington Nationals
San Francisco is trying to get Matt Cain back in the rotation after surgery but he is throwing badly at 2-3 with a 5.59 ERA. Cain took the loss Saturday, 8-6, giving up five runs on six hits and five walks over four-plus innings while striking out only two. He now has a 5.59 ERA in seven starts since coming off the DL, mixing two quality starts with five outings in which he allowed four or more runs. The Giants are 8-19 in Cain's last 27 starts, 5-14 at home. Washington is in town with ace Max Scherzer *2.44 ERA) on the hill. The Nationals are 8-3 in Scherzer's last 11 starts with 4 days of rest, plus 7-3 in his last 10 road starts. The Nationals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, 5-2 in San Francisco.
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the San Francisco Giants, as I like the defending World Series champs to get it done over the visiting Washington Nationals, who continue their west coast junket after a series in Los Angeles, with the Dodgers. Last night the Giants beat the Nats in the series-opener, and I expect nothing less tonight.
The Giants are 2.5 games back of the Dodgers in the National League West, and have lost seven of 11. But they've also caught a team playing out of its realm, across the country and in a three-game slump. The Nationals have lost seven of 11 and are now 4.5 games back in the N.L. East.
Washington hasn't necessarily traveled well, sporting a 27-33 road mark. And the Nats' offense has fell off considerably, as they're hitting just .248 overall, and .250 on the road.
The Giants come in on winning streaks of 6-1 against N.L. East teams, 10-2 at home and 12-3 as a home pup.
Take the Giants tonight, and don't bother listing starters.
1* SAN FRANCISCO
Kyle Hunter
Padres at Rockies
Play: Padres
The San Diego Padres have Tyson Ross on the mound for this one. Ross is a rare pitcher who has fared well at Coors Field. He has a career 3.75 ERA at Coors. Ross is a guy who gets a ton of ground balls, and that helps a lot in Colorado. The Rockies lineup is still solid, but it's certainly not what it was at the beginning of the year. Yohan Flande starts for the Rockies and I'm not very high on him. San Diego catches the Rockies after a long road trip here, and the Rockies are likely to be the more tired team. Colorado looks listless of late, and I truly believe the Padres should be the clear favorite in this one. San Diego is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in Ross' last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. They are 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL West. The Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. They are 0-5 in their past five games against San Diego. A 27-0 angle.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +210 over TORONTO
We usually don’t like to bet against a team that is as hot as the Blue Jays are right now but we can’t worry about that when offered a price like this on the Yankees. Toronto is flying just a little too high right now. Additionally, the Blue Jays offense isn’t going as good as one might think. In fact, since picking up Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere and David Price, Toronto is batting just .242 over 12 games. That ranks 17th in MLB out of the 30 teams over that span. After scoring 10 runs on Aaron Brooks in the first two innings on Wednesday, the Jays failed to score again the rest of the way. On Monday against Oakland, two of the four runs they scored were unearned. Yesterday, they scored just four more in the first two innings and didn’t score again. In New York last weekend, they weren’t hitting at all but it was masked because the Yanks were worse. We’re not discounting the Jays winning streak or the confidence and swagger that surround them but they were hitting WAY better before the trade. With all that hype and winning comes an inflated price to pay when backing Toronto. Regular readers know our position on paying a premium to back popular teams.
David Price mowed down the Yanks last weekend in New York and we can’t overstate how difficult it is to do that twice within a week of one another. This home start against the Yankees may not be as successful. Price has been pitching exceptionally well with 14 dominant starts in his last 15 games along with his stellar 83%/4% dominant start/disaster start split. However, Price is 1-1 against New York with a 7.71 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP when facing them the second time within a week in three tries over the past two seasons, including one other time this year. The Yankees have hit 43 HRs vs. LHP (tied for second in MLB) with a .770 OPS (third in MLB) and the best news is that they snapped their losing streak last night while scoring eight runs in the process.
Ivan Nova is another starter that was bitten by an early 2014 TJS (Tommy John surgery) bug. Concurrent xERA, and swing and miss rate improvements heading into year made him a solid mid-3s ERA arm with strikeout upside. Nova’s 2014 blowup was a result of a very unfortunate strand rate so ignore it. Nova has made eight starts since returning in Late June. He’s allowed two runs or less in five of those and he’s getting stronger with each passing start. That includes allowing two runs in Texas, one run at U.S. Cellular Field and two runs at home against the Orioles in three of his last four starts. Aside from surrendering a grand slam to Justin Smoak last weekend, he was very good against the Jays too. Ivan Nova can pitch but more than that is the ludicrous price being offered here to the Yanks. New York is itching to get another crack at the Blue Jays after being swept last week and after Jose Bautista opened his mouth about it. You never give the opposition more motivation but Bautista can’t help it. Yanks will be ready and they’re not going to be silent this weekend. Huge overlay.
Philadelphia +150 over MILWAUKEE
Wanting to do some damage to the Cubbies hopes of making the playoffs, the Crew went into Wrigley and were promptly swept in three games while being outscored 18-7. That was an intense series (for Chicago) in front of a packed house every night and now the Brewers will play the less interesting Phillies. State of mind plays a role in the outcome of these games and one has to question Milwaukee’s coming into this letdown series. Besides that, the Brewers 24 home wins is the worst mark in MLB and they are also dead last against southpaws with a team BA of .218. They’ll face a lefty here in Adam Morgan.
Morgan is a junk pitcher that attempts to keep hitter’s off balance. He has a strong 11% swing and miss rate but has just 25 K’s in 44 innings. That 11% swing and miss rate says more K’s are coming. Overall, Morgan is 4-4 with a 4.04 ERA. The Phillies have won four of his last five starts, including a 3-2 victory in Toronto in which he held the Jays to two runs in six frames. The Phillies are one of the hottest teams in the league since the All-Star break (17-7) but the market isn’t buying it. We are in this spot against the disinterested Brewers.
Interestingly enough, Wily Peralta has the exact same 25 K’s in 44 innings as Adam Morgan. The difference is that those numbers apply to Peralta at home only. Peralta is 1-4 at Miller Park with an ERA/xERA split of 4.67/4.81. Over his last three starts covering just 16 frames, Peralta has walked six and struck out seven with a swing and miss rate of just 5%. Over that same stretch he has posted an ERA of 6.06 with a xERA of 5.77. Peralta is a big risk as the favorite. Ditto for the Brewers, especially at home. Combine the two and the equation isn’t difficult to figure out. Win or lose here, it’s a must play based on value.
Cincinnati +155 over LOS ANGELES
We may as well start this one out the same way we started out yesterday’s fade against the Dodgers by saying that the Dodgers have three wins in their past 10 games. Those wins occurred with Zack Greinke starting twice and Clayton Kershaw starting once. When one of those two guys does not start, L.A.’s win expectation drops significantly because without one of those guys starting, this is a very average ball club. Last night, the Dodgers were whacked with Mat Latos starting and it doesn’t get much better with Alex Wood. Since joining the Dodgers, Wood is winless with one no decision in two starts. The Dodgers are 0-2 in his two starts against Philly and Pittsburgh. Wood is a guy that can barely make it through five innings because his pitch count is always high. He threw 109 pitches in six innings in his first start and followed that up with 91 pitches in five innings against Pittsburgh. That’s significant here because the Dodgers bullpen is a complete and utter mess. Manager Don Mattingly is so reluctant to go to the next guy that he is almost forced to keep the starter in longer than he should. We can’t blame Mattingly one bit. It’s also worth noting that the Reds lead the NL in stolen bases and that puts even more stress on the opposing pitching staff. Wood is a former 7th round draft pick that the Braves were happy to trade to the Dodgers and now he’s priced like an upper tier starter pitching for a struggling team.
John Lamb makes his first MLB start here and that brings risk. That risk is reflected in the price here and we'll look to take advantage. Lamb was originally a high-ranked prospect for K.C. in 2011 but Tommy John surgery and subsequent rehab complications had him with diminished velocity and enduring a long, slow road back. The 6’4”, 205-pound Lamb originally worked with a mid-90s fastball, a mid-to-high 70s curveball, and a high 70s changeup, with the change flashing plus at times. After dropping to the mid-80’s in 2013 and rumors that he might flunk out of baseball altogether, the fastball velocity finally returned, alongside the addition of a fourth pitch, a slider, to Lamb’s repertoire. Everything finally has come together for Lamb this season, as he led all Storm Chaser starters in W's, ERA, K and WHIP. In fact, Lamb went a combined 10-2 in 20 starts with a 2.66 ERA for Omaha (Triple-A) of the extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and Louisville of the International League. However, 17 of those 20 starts were for Omaha of the PCL. Combined, Lamb struck out 117 batters in 111 innings and was dominating. Reds manager Bryan Price has indicated that Lamb is being called up as a reward for his outstanding performance. Long term, the skills that underwrote his great rating in 2011 are still there and if he can maintain his focus and health, there could be much more upside in the tank. This kid is so talented and is absolutely worth backing here
DAVE COKIN
RAYS VS. RANGERS
PLAY: RAYS +105
A fairly important weekend series gets started tonight in Arlington as the Rangers play host to the Rays. Each team remains in wild card contention. The Rays are only two games behind the Angels, and Texas trails the Halos by only 3.5 games, so these two teams are very much alive and there’s plenty on the line here.
Tampa Bay is yet again doing its best to hang tough in spite of the most constricting financial restraints of just about any big league team. The pitching continues to be the plus factor for the Rays, and if they manage to get to October again, it’s going to be thanks to the arms. But there are some signs of life in the batting order and if the Tampa offense can just be respectable the rest of the way, they have a real shot to slip into one of the wild card slots.
The Rangers are a dicier proposition from where I stand. I just don’t trust their staff to be able to get it done at crunch time. Certainly the acquisition of Cole Hamels helps in a very big way. But the remainder of the rotation is shaky. It might well be that the key guy could be tonight’s starter, Martin Perez. Someone beyond Hamels has to stand up in these final weeks. Yovani Gallardo is not trending in a positive way, Colby Lewis isn’t consistent and the fifth starter spot has been yikes material for some time now.
As for this evening, I give Karns an edge over Perez, and the Rays bullpen owns a fairly substantial advantage over their Texas counterparts. Overall offense numbers favor the Rangers, but no so the more recent data. It’s also worth noting that the Rays are fielding a lineup that looks okay when the platoons get the righty hitters into action. Rookie Richie Shaffer has added a bit of power to the Tampa lineup, and the Rays should also get Desmond Jennings back tonight. Jennings has never lived up to billing overall but he’s much better against lefties that righties and I would guess he’ll be patrolling left field tonight.
Let’s also note a simple stat, which is that Tampa Bay has been better on the road than the Rangers have been at home. I made the Rays a small favorite when working my numbers on this game. Barring any negative late info, that means the Rays at plus money a take tonight.