Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 15

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

San Diego at Seattle
The Seahawks return home following last week's 21-16 loss at Denver as they host San Diego on Friday night. Seattle is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5 1/2).

Game 403-404: Philadelphia at New England (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 119.426; New England 124.915
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over

Game 405-406: Tennessee at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 122.570; New Orleans 124.246
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: Detroit at Oakland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.242; Oakland 119.979
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: San Diego at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 123.140; Seattle 131.958
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5 1/2); Under

SATURDAY, AUGUST 16

Game 411-412: Green Bay at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 117.284; St. Louis 121.856
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.028; Indianapolis 119.488
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Baltimore at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.112; Dallas 119.132
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under

Game 417-418: NY Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 118.838; Cincinnati 125.989
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 117.315; Pittsburgh 121.786
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.514; Tampa Bay 117.249
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Under

Game 423-424: Atlanta at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.476; Houston 119.042
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 120.519; Minnesota 124.930
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over

SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

WNBA

Minnesota at San Antonio
The Lynx head to San Antonio carrying a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Minnesota is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3).

Game 601-602: Washington at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.609; Connecticut 109.322
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 146
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4); Under

Game 603-604: Tulsa at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 108.655; Atlanta 111.449
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 165
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+6); Under

Game 605-606: Minnesota at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 117.302; San Antonio 110.119
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 157
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over

Game 607-608: Seattle at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 106.444; Los Angeles 114.302
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 8; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 6 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-6 1/2); Over

Sleepyj

Eagles / Patriots Under 46

I want to get this out there now. I think this 46 is way to high here for preseason. Philly will play the starting defense much more in this game. They really have stepped up and the run defense has impressed. Nick Foles looked ok but i think he will struggle to find some rhythm on the road in NE this week. Chip Kelly will not show the entire playbook and will go for a more vanilla look with his starters..NE 2nd string defense looked bad last week i'm sure that unit will step up this week. To many mistakes last week cost Philly a win at the end with the 2nd and 3rd string defense..That unit as well will step up to make themselves noticed to the coaching staff...I think this line is way to high for two 2nd and 3rd units defenses that will need to step up..NE qb Mallet looked rather lost last week i don't think he will have much success this week again either. Gronk and Brady will both play..Brady did not start last week and i think he will be rusty going against a Philly defense that has some extra game reps..I think this one stays under..line is at 46 and 45.5..right now as they just dropped..Just a brief play as i think this line goes down.

Wunderdog

San Diego @ Seattle
Pick: Seattle -5.5

Seattle comes home for its opener, and this team is an absolute beast at Century Link Field in the postseason, regular season and preseason - especially for hard-driving coach Pete Carroll, who is 22-11 ATS in August. This team has loads of depth and talent, especially on defense, and even in losing to the high-powered Broncos last week, they only allowed 274 yards. On offense, their preseason QB rotation is loaded with three players who have a lot of NFL regular season starting experience in Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson and Terrelle Pryor. Coach Carroll demands physical play - and gets it. San Diego is in town for their first road game with nothing to prove after a 27-7 rout of Dallas. A year ago in week two in their first road game, the Chargers turned it over four times in a loss at Chicago, surrendering 33 points. These teams met early last August too, and the Seahawks won in San Diego 31-10, as part of a 4-1 SU/ATS Seattle preseason run. Go with the defending champs at home.

Tony Stoffo

Eagles vs. Patriots
Play: Over 46.5

Last preseason in game #1 the Eagles and Patriots played to a 31-22 final. This year they meet again and I look for another higher scoring game and a solid release on the over - as these two teams have scrimmaged this week again each other - so I look for to very sharp offenses heading into Friday night's game. Plus lets not forget these two teams in last years preseason saw the over go a combined 7-1.

Joe D'Amico

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams are 0-1 SU and ATS this pre-season. Both are touted to take their Divisions. Last Year the Eagles finished 10-6 then lost to the Saints in the Playoffs. The Pats went 12-4 in the regular season, beat the Colts in the post-season, only to get ousted by the Broncos a week later. They beat Philly in LY's pre-season. This year they got shellacked by Washington in Week 1 as Philadelphia posted 28 points in a tough loss to Chicago. The Eagles had a difficult time rushing the ball LW but all four QB's, Kinne, Barkley, Sanchez, and Foles threw with success against the Bears "D". The Patriots managed a mere 15 FD's and couldn't run the ball at all vs. a weak Redskins defense. With the helm in the hands of backups, Mallett and Garappolo, I don't see much more success this week, especially with no ground game to pass off of. I feel Philly has a superior QB, RB, WR, and CB situation. And knowing the Eagles coaching staff, no way do they allow as many points as they did last week. They know, that they have the leg up in the NFC East and need to go into the regular season in sync. New England is set for another Division Title and won't put their star's in harm's way. I lean on the Eagles here.

Joe D'Amico's Featured Package

Marc Lawrence

Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Edges - Diamondbacks: Cahill 2-0 with 1.00 ERA last two team starts in this series, and 5-1 last six team starts during August. Marlins Hand 3-8 career home team starts, including 1-3 with 5.32 ERA this season, and 5-13 last eighteen overall team starts. With Cahill in solid KW form with 20 strikeouts and 3 walks his last four starts, and the Snakes 8-2 their last eight games in Miami, we recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

Art Aronson

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Kansas City Royals -135

The visiting Royals will send Danny Duffy (7-10, 2.57 ERA) to the hill; Duffy has won two straight starts and has been solid on the road this season despite receiving less than fantastic run support. Note that Duffy has a very respectable 2.19 ERA in 61 innings away from friendly confines thus far and is 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA in five games started against the Twins lifetime. In fact, Duffy's .192 mark since the beginning of June is fourth-best in baseball and his 2.13 ERA in that span is sixth among AL starters. The Twins will counter with Ricky Nolasco (5-7, 5.90 ERA); note that the right-hander is making his first start since July 6th. Nolasco has struggled this year and we should expect him to be a little rusty in his first game back. Kansas City is on absolute fire right now as it has won 18 of 22 coming into this game and just took three of four from the Athletics. While Minnesota is coming off a nice series win over the Astros, Houston isn’t in the same ball park with KC when it comes to the talent department. I think the Royals continue to roll.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Mike Lundin

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Kansas City Royals -135

The Royals just keeps on rumbling and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. They have a good road record going 33-26, and I like their chances to improve on those numbers as they'll open a four game set at Minnesota tonight.

Danny Duffy (7-10, 2.57 ERA) will toe the slab for the Royals, and he must be full of confidence right now. The southpaw just keeps on delivering the goods, and he's undefeated going 2-0 in his last four starts. He's been hurling the ball well on the road all season, posting a 2.19 ERA over 13 outings. The Twins have Joe Mauer back, but he's 0-4 versus Duffy and the Minnesota line-up is batting .200 over 67 at bats against the 25 year old.

Ricky Nolasco (5-7, 5.90 ERA) will take the mound for the Twins coming off a horrible outing as he conceded six runs on seven hits over just two innings in a loss versus the Yankees his last time out. He's 3-3 with a 4.28 ERA over eight starts home at Target Field this season.

With an obvious pitching mismatch and a Royals in top shape there can only be one play here.

Jimmy Adams

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -134

Arizona is clearly a terrible team right now. With Paul Goldschmidt sidelined with a broken hand and some other key pieces getting traded away, this squad basically struggles to put up 2 runs on a nightly basis. They’ve lost 8 of their last 12 behind a .232 batting average. The Snakes have also put in a ton of innings recently, so they’ll be tired tonight in Miami.

Trevor Cahill has been a “bet against” pitcher all season. This guy was once a solid pitcher with the A’s, but those days are long gone. His career hit a huge low when he was sent down to AAA Reno earlier this year to work on his command issues. He never really got things fixed down in the minors, so it’s no surprise that he’s struggled since coming back up from the farm. Cahill did have a quality outing his last time out, but this guy has serious command issues and is lacking in confidence.

The D’Backs can’t really hit anyone, but they definitely don’t have anyone in the lineup that can hit lefties. Brad Hand takes the mound looking to bounce back from a poor start. Prior to his last outing, Hand had gone 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his previous 4 outings. The Marlins are right around .500, but they are light years away from this terrible D’Backs squad.

Jack Jones

Tampa Bay Rays -135

After winning six of their last eight games overall, the Tampa Bay Rays (60-61) have pulled within one win of getting back to .500 on the season. They still believe they have a shot to win a wild card spot, and they are certainly playing like it here of late. The Yankees, meanwhile, have lost four in a row while scoring a combined seven runs in the process.

Tampa Bay has the clear advantage on the mound in this one. Alex Cobb has gone 7-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in his last three. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts.

What has been most impressive is Cobb's dominance of the Yankees. He has gone 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in seven career starts against them. He'll be opposed by Brandon McCarthy, who is 7-11 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in 24 starts this season between Arizona and New York.

New York is 2-12 (-11.5 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for four or more runs this season. The Yankees are 8-27 in their last 35 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Tampa Bay is 9-2 in its last 11 vs. AL East opponents. The Rays are 14-6 in their last 20 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay is 18-8 in its last 26 home meetings with New York.

Will Rogers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -148

The Nats are coming off a 3-0 sweep at New York Mets, and are 6-2 in their last eight games. They'll face a Pirates team that has lost its last two games and has a poor road record for the season going 25-33. It is well worth the price to play the home team who is 34-24 at Nationals Park for the season.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to right-hander Charlie Morton (5-11, 3.62 ERA) who was torched his last time out. Morton surrendered five hits on five runs over five innings in a 8-2 loss versus the Padres. He's pitched poorly on the road this season, going 2-7 with a 4.52 ERA over 11 starts. The Nats will counter with Tanner Roark (11-7, 2.86 ERA), who contrary to Morton is coming off a quality start as he surrendered one run on six hits over seven innings in a 4-1 win at Atlanta. The 27 year old has been solid at home this season, going 5-5 with a 2.40 ERA.

2. Trends - The Pirates have lost all of Morton's last four starts. Washington on the other hand is 5-1 in Roark's last six starts.

3. X-factor - Andrew McCutchen is still on the DL for the Pirates, leaving them a little light on offensive firepower.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Cincinnati Reds -142

Cincinnati has outscored opponents by almost 30 runs this season, so they have talent. The Reds are 39-14 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Ace Johnny Cueto (14-6, 2.05 ERA) goes here, with the team 6-1 his last seven starts. Cueto got to 14 wins Sunday against the Marlins, holding them to two runs over eight innings, striking out nine and allowing five hits and two walks. He did this despite taking a bouncer off his rib cage in the third inning. The Reds are 11-3 in Cuetos last 14 starts vs. the National League West and 46-22 in Cueto's last 68 starts vs. a team with a losing record. By contrast, Colorado has been outscored by almost 80 runs with an awful pitching staff. The Rockies are 6-13 at home games against a right-handed starter. Starter Franklin Morales (4.97 ERA, 5-6) is wild, walking 51 in 112 innings along with 125 hits allowed. The Rockies are 12-43 in their last 55 games vs. a right-handed starter, plus 2-6 in Morales' last 8 starts.

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +1½ -195

The Giants ended a five game losing skid with an emphatic 7-1 home win over the White Sox Wednesday, but they'll face Philadelphia's ace in Game 1 of this home series versus Philly tonight.

Cole Hamels has been brilliant for the Phillies, coming off four consecutive starts limiting the opposition to one run or less. Unfortunately a lack of run support has prevented him from picking up wins in each of his last two appearances. This looks like a good spot for the southpaw, who held the Giants to one run on six hits through eight innings, winning the only previous meeting this season. He also boasts an incredible 1.55 ERA in 11 starts on the road this year.

The Giants hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who has not pitched well in San Francisco this year. Bumgarner (13-9, 3.22 ERA) gave up four runs on seven hits over eight innings in a loss to Kansas City his last time out. He's 4-6 with a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts at home.

The visitors appear to be a good bet as underdogs here.

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -138

The Giants fit a Powerful system that has not lost in the history of the database going 12-0. While we don't believe they will win big toniight, we do think they will take down the Phillies. We are playing on home favorites off a home favored win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs and had 5+ hits. The Phillies are 0-3 on the road off a 1 run road loss. Bumgarner and Hamels are on the mound tonight. Hamels has not been bad but has been victimized by a lack of run support and that should be the case again tonight as the Phillies will be on the road vs Bumgarner who has won 5 of his last 6 home August starts an shut down the Phillies going 8 scoreless against them last month. Look for the Giants to take the opener.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package