Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/ Seattle Under 38.5: First let's note that these teams play each other in week two of the regular season and that should mean a very vanilla offensive game plan for this game as they don't want to show a whole lot here. Neither team was really explosive in game 1 on offense. The Chargers were better than Seattle, but San Diego also went up against a very poor Dallas defense. Seattle had their struggles on offense vs Denver and I look for then to have their struggles here vs a better San Diego defense. The Seattle defense looked in top form last week vs the Broncos, holding them to just 158 yards passing. They were run on for 116 yards and this could be a game where the Bolts will look to run a bit more. I see Seattle also running the ball plenty here. The Seahawks are 7-1 to the OVER in week two of the preseason, but with the teams playing each other in week two of the regular season, This calls for a scaled down offense from both teams and that should keep the scoring around 31 points or less.
BEST OF THE REST
Philadelphia/ New England Over 46.5: Surprise, I will be going with the Over in this one. The Pats looked horrible on offense last week and should do better vs a weaker Philadelphia defense. Also I would expect that Brady will be in there for this one to get some reps. Even if not Garrapolo did look good last week and will be going up against the Philadelphia 2nd or 3rd string defense, which should mean some late points. Ryan Mallet has had much better preseason games in the past then he did in game 1 and I look for him to bounceback in this one. The Pats defense also struggled in the game and should do so again vs a Philadelphia team that put 28 points on the board last week and will again look to push tempo. I will also look for Nick Foles to have a better game after tossing 2 INTs in the opener, which was the same amount of INTs he threw all of last year. This one should be a shootout and it should be fum. 31-28 sounds about right.
Oakland -2.5 over Detroit: Have a feeling the Raiders will put forth a solid effort tonight, plus we note that when the Lions are at .500 or better as road dogs in the preseason vs an opponent off a SU loss they are just 2-14 ATS.
Raphael Esparza
Detroit at Oakland
Play: Under 39
Can somebody please tell me why this total is 39? The Oakland Raiders scored six points last week against the Vikings and those six points were late in the 4th quarter. Raiders QB’s Schaub, and Carr both struggled last week and I don’t see much improvement this week from the Detroit Lions. The Lions offense was no better last week as Detroit was only able to produce 13 points against Cleveland and granted the Lions had some key players sitting but still it was against the Browns defense. I thought this total would be around 35.5 or 36 but 39 points – I just don’t see it. Take the ‘under’ here
Mike Davis
Washington -1.5 +125
This is a great opportunity for Tanner Roark and the Washington Nationals to jumpstart their 10 game home stand with a victory. On a staff that has Strasburg and Zimmerman, you can certainly make an argument that Roark and Fister have been the two best starters on the staff. Roark is 11-7 with a 2.86 era. He had a bad outing two starts ago vs. Baltimore. If you throw that game out, he has only allowed 1 earned run in each of his last 5 starts and he went 7 innings in each of those outings. “That” is getting it done. In those 5 starts, the Nationals were 5-0 and only one game was a one-run game.
Pittsburgh sends Charlie Morton to the mound to begin this three game series. Morton is a guy that I really like but he has been scuffling over the past month or so. The Pirates are 0-4 in his past 4 starts and Charlie has allowed 14 earned runs and 27 hits in 23 innings. Those 4 games were against SD, Miami, at SF and at Colorado. Colorado is a good hitting team, especially at home, but the other three teams have struggled on offense most of the season. In those four losses, the Pirates were outscored 29-11 and none of the games were one-run games. I like the Nationals here.
DAVE COKIN
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT MIAMI MARLINS
PLAY: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +125
Let’s get the bad news out of the way right at the top. The Diamondbacks are a lousy team, three of the four best hitters they had against lefties are either injured or traded and this team has logged a load if innings the last couple of days. So I can completely understand how lots of bettors are going to look at the Marlins as the side to play tonight.
But one of my deals is that I like to jump on pitchers who suddenly seem to find their rhythm after struggling, and we’ve got one such hurler going tonight as Trevor Cahill will get the start for the Snakes. Cahill was once a very highly regarded young pitcher, but he has fallen upon hard times since leaving Oakland. Things bottomed out for Cahill earlier this season as he found himself back in the minors attempting to relocate his stuff. It’s small sample to be sure, but Cahill has gotten things together of late. His last couple of starts have been reminiscent of what he used to be with the Athletics.
The general consensus with Cahill’s problems have been that it’s mechanical. I can’t disagree with that, as it really wasn’t difficult to spot how much trouble he was having repeating his release point. That was leading to poor command and it was pretty much a domino effect from there. But from what I’m now hearing and reading, the bigger problem for Cahill was between the ears. He just lost his confidence and everything seemed to spiral out of control from there.
It at least appears as though Cahill might be getting it back together. He’s looked really good in his last couple of outings, and he’s once more pounding the strike zone with a hard two-seam fastball that when it’s right, will generate lots of ground balls as well as a decent number of strikeouts.
Cahill will be opposed by lefty Brad Hand, who has been sort of a pleasant surprise for Miami, but is off a very rough start. I’m not really bullish on Hand as anything more than a fifth starter or a bullpen resident. What I’m banking on here is that the most recent outing suggests a return to what I consider his normal form, which isn’t anything special.
Obviously, there’s some gamble here. The team I’m looking to play is pretty terrible and it’s not an ideal scheduling spot by any stretch. But I got that buy signal on Cahilla couple starts back. If he has indeed rediscovered his stuff, Cahill could be a very nice bargain until the numbers catch up. I think he’s worth a follow here at decent enough plus money, so my side here is with the Diamondbacks.
LT Profits
Oakland Vs Atlanta
Pick: Under 7
When the Oakland Athletics first acquired Jason Hammel from the Cubs, he had some difficulty adjusting to life in the American League and was roughed up in his first starts for the A’s. However, he has regained his Chicago form by allowing a total of one run in 12 innings over his last two starts and he is now facing a National League opponent in the Atlanta Braves that he limited to two runs in seven innings earlier in the season. Atlanta’s starter Alex Wood should be able to keep pace though as he has a 3.08 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 117 innings vs. 33 walks despite his 8-9 record, and he comes off of a great outing vs. Washington where he allowed one run on five hits with 12 strikeouts in 7.1 innings. The ‘under’ is 7-3-2 in Wood’s last 12 home starts.
Frank Jordan
San Diego Padres vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -127
San Diego is 57-63, but they do have a bright spot in pitcher Tyson Ross who is 11-10 with a 2.63 ERA and San Diego is 5-0 in his last five starts. Ross has a start against St. Louis this season going six inning allowing just a run picking up the victory. With that being said Ross has had his struggles on the road where he is 5-5 with an ERA nearly at 3.50. Lance Lynn is 12-8 on the season also with an ERA under three. Lynn was opposing Ross in that start and also allowed only one earned run, but also one unearned run as he picked up the loss. In this rematch with it in St. Louis where Lynn is 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA look for Lynn to get his revenge as he shuts down the Padres and gets some early offensive help from Holliday and compnay.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Rays -133
The Rays come into this one having won two straight and 6 of their last 8 overall. Even though there chances of securing one of the two Wild Card spots is slim (6 games back), they still believe they clearly haven't given up hope. Hard to not like them at home given their recent play against the slumping Yankees. New York has dropped 4 straight and are in a serious funk offensively having scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 9 games.
Not only is Tampa Bay playing the better baseball of the two teams, I believe the Rays have a big edge on the mound with Alex Cobb going up against Brandon McCarthy. Cobb has a strong 3.62 ERA and 1.188 WHIP over 8 home starts and comes in with a red-hot 1.83 ERA and 1.118 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Not to mention he's 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.851 WHIP over 7 career starts against the Yankees. McCarthy has been a pleasant surprise for New York, but he's not been great on the road, where he has a 4.30 ERA and 1.449 WHIP over 10 starts.
We also find a massive long-term system in favor of Tampa Bay. Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings are 174-73 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Rays.
Chip Chirimbes
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians -157
The 'hottest' pitcher in the AL has got to be Kluber (13-6, 2.46 ERA) of the Cleveland Indians as the hard throwing right-hander is 4-0 in his last five starts with an ERA of 0.68 with 45 strikeouts in 40 innings.
Andrew Lange
Seattle at Detroit
Play: Under 8.5
When healthy, Seattle's James Paxton has all of the tools to succeed at the MLB level. Coming from the left side, Paxton has showcased the ability to miss bats (22 Ks) and command his pitches (5 BBs) throughout his four starts. Yes, the sample is small (24 IP) but lefties who throw in the mid-90's and get ground balls don't grow on trees. Detroit's Rick Porcello was forced into an extra inning affair last Sunday (2 IP) so should be rested and ready to face the Mariners. He's been very consistent this season and despite not posting big strikeout numbers, his very respectable xFIP (3.70) speaks to his ability to go out and produce quality starts on a consistent basis. I also like the fact that he's really improved his splits vs. lefties -- which the Mariners have a lot of. Lefties are hitting only .244 BA/.299 OBP/.363 SLG vs. the veteran right-hander. With both teams fighting for postseason berths, I project a playoff atmosphere throughout the series. We'll look to play Game 1 under the total.
Bob Balfe
New England Patriots -3
The Patriots did not look sharp in their opener and neither did this Eagles first team offense. Philly does not want to give anything away with their system. The Patriots need to get going here with Brady and their starters. Tom Brady didn't play last week and again tonight he is not 100 percent certain to play. I think they need to get him reps as he gets older. Ryan Mallett is capable of being a starter right now as Brady's backup. With the knowledge he gets from Brady this guy is going to be a top 5 QB in a few years. The Eagles Defense in my opinion is the reason why this team might miss the playoffs. Take the Patriots
San Diego Chargers +6
Seattle did not look hot at all against Denver and in fact their first team offense looked pretty weak in that first quarter. This is a team that could be guilty of being a little lazy after winning the super bowl, its human nature. San Diego has great skilled backups for preseason play. There is no reason for Seattle to be favored like its a regular season game when its the preseason. Take the Chargers.
Red Sox / Astros Over 8.5
Clay Buchholz has been awful this year. When he starts the Redsoxs usually lose and they get pounded. Keuchel is a great pitcher and I hope he gets a chance to pitch on a playoff bound team because he could be a household name. This Astros Bullpen however stinks. Look for a lot of runs just like last night. Take the OVER.
Stephen Nover
Mariners at Tigers
Play: Mariners
I'll take price with a hot Mariners team that is 8-1 in their last nine. The Tigers have a losing mark during their last nine games. Seattle has the superior bullpen and a now healthy James Paxton pitching. He is 5-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last five starts dating back to last season. Rick Porcello is a solid pitcher, but his rhythm could be out of whack after appearing last Sunday during the Tigers' 19-inning marathon against Toronto.
King Creole
Eagles / Patriots Over 46.5
6-1 O/U since 2005: All NFL pre-season games with an OU line of > 44 pts (PHIL @ NENG).
17-3 O/U last 3 years: All NFL pre-season Game Two teams who scored 10 pts on the road the previous week (EAGLES).
EAGLES / PATRIOTS series tendencies: 4-0 O/U last 4 meetings (48.3 ppg).
EAGLES: 4-0 O/U in Game 2 of the pre-season (48.6 ppg).
PATRIOTS: 4-0 O/U in Game 2 of the pre-season (43.3 ppg).
David Banks
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Two teams that held joint practices sessions with each other on Tuesday and Wednesday will square off in their second NFL preseason game of the year Friday night on NFL Network when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium at 7:30 ET. The Patriots also held joint practices with the Washington Redskins before their preseason opener last week, and that did not end well with the Patriots losing the actual game 23-6. The Eagles also come off of a loss 34-28 to the Bears in Chicago, and what was significant about that game was the Philadelphia offensive reserves outplayed the starters after the Eagles were shut out in the first quarter.
Coach Chip Kelly has intimated this week that he may play his starters into the second period in Week 2 and that he also plans to work on some different formations, thus not being as "vanilla" with the play-calling as he was in the opener. In other words, into the second quarter at least, expect to see Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy in more or less regular season form in Kelly's hurry-up offense before the back-ups get summoned and the vanilla schemes of last week return. And how the Eagles perform in that first quarter and a half or so could ultimately determine the outcome of this game, although if the second and third stringers match last week's performance, Philadelphia may not stop scoring. Also expect to see more of Darren Sproles with the first team after he did not catch a pass last week, although he did carry the ball three times for 11 yards. The one setback for Philadelphia is that Jeremy Maclin, who is expected to take over as the primary receiver this season with DeSean Jackson departed, is again doubtful with a knee injury. That may not necessarily be a bad thing though as the Eagles can take a longer look at their second round draft pick Jordan Matthews who seemed nervous while dropping three passes in he opener but has excelled in training camp.
As for the Patriots, Tom Brady is expected to make his 2014 debut while major free agent signee Darrelle Revis is expected to make his New England debut. The difference though is that the Patriot starters do not figure to play more than one quarter and maybe even just a couple of series. The Patriots want to continue to take extended looks at Ryan Mallet, who was terrible in the opener in what was rumored to be a trade audition, and rookie Jimmy Garoppolo as that duo is still competing for the back-up quarterback job behind Brady (assuming Mallet is still with the team). Mallet started last week and was lousy completing 5-of-12 passes for just 55 yards with several of the incompletions falling at the feet of his receivers. There have been rumors of Mallet possibly going to the Houston Texans since before the NFL Draft, which may have been a reason Houston did not select a quarterback in the draft, but his opening performance looks like cause for concern.
The Patriots are just 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games as preseason favorites. NFL preseason Week 2 underdogs coming off of a loss (Eagles) are a mind-boggling 72-33-2, 68.6 percent ATS since 2000.
Bruno Bets
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -125
In the simplest of terms, Alex Cobb has made life miserable on LHBs all season-long. He has held them to a mere .209 BA and just an OB% of .266.
While the "first back home" is generally not an ideal situational spot, the Rays' pitching has been solid and I don't expect it'll be Cobb who drops the ball.
In McCarthy and in my opinion, we still have a starter who's numbers have prospered since returning to the AL, but seems to be garnering more than his fair share of good fortune and run support. I do expect that Cobb may throw a wrench into the works here. Although he suffered badly from a lack of support at The Trop earlier in the season, Tampa Bay has scored a few runs in his last couple of home starts and should get him enough tonight. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his last eight starts (2 or fewer in his last six) and has the stuff to do so again.
Although the Under appears to be a solid play, I am not sold on McCarthy yet and expect that he may get lit up before long. The Yankees have not fared well at The Tropicana recently and I don't expect their fortunes change in this spot. Alex has owned the Bombers' line-up in the past and I can find no reason to think he won't again.
Bruce Marshall
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5
Texas is on the way to 100 losses, a staggering downturn for a franchise that has been a playoff fixture for several years. It has all collapsed in Arlington, an the efforts of tonight's starting pitcher Nick Martinez (12.91 ERA during a four-start home losing streak) are indicative of the Rangers' plight. The Angels are now dominating this series, winnign seven straight, and Garrett Richards has been even better by compiling a 1.89 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 19 innings while winning his last three starts vs. Texas. Laying a bit of a price with the Halos on the Run Line seems to be a worthwhile risk.