Steve Janus
Atlanta Braves -114
As bad as the Braves have been playing, this is a great spot to jump on Atlanta at home, as they catch the A's in a rare slump. Oakland has dropped 4 of 5 and there's reason to believe their struggles will continue with Jason Hammel taking the mound. While Hammel has been dominant at home, he's a mere 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA over 13 road starts. Hard to not like your chances with Atlanta given how well Alex Wood has been throwing the ball. Wood comes in with a strong 2.74 ERA and 1.176 WHIP over 8 home starts and has an impressive 1.33 ERA over his last 3 starts.
Key Trends - Oakland is 2-14 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season, 5-11 in their last 16 interleague road games against a left-handed starter and 2-6 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record.
System - Home teams (ATLANTA) - after having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 35-10 (78%) against the money line since 1997.
Sam Martin
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
Much more faith in Tanner Roark and the Nationals at home tonight than we do in a struggling Charlie Morton and a Pirates squad that has lost two straight and four of their last six games overall. Morton has lost each of his last four team starts - allowing 18 earned runs over 24 innings pitched in those four games. That includes his last outing, where he gave up 5 ER's in 5 IP against a weak-hitting San Diego team.
Roark has been just the opposite, winning five of his last six team starts overall and he's been the model of consistency going exactly seven innings and giving up exactly one run in all five of those Nationals victories. Pittsburgh is 8 games under .500 on the road while Washington is a full 10 games over .500 at home, and given this pitching matchup the host team is the only way we can go tonight!
SPORTS WAGERS
SEATTLE -6 over San Diego
6 points is highly unusual for any team to be favored in the preseason and it’s for that reason, among others, that this number should be taken seriously. It’s an attempt by the oddsmakers to entice people into taking the points. If it were a regular season game, Seattle would likely only be about 2 points higher at -8 or thereabouts. San Diego is coming off a 7-point win over Dallas in its preseason opener, where they moved the ball very well but this isn’t Dallas. The Seahawks lost their preseason opener in Denver and will now play its first game at home since their Super Bowl victory last February. The fans will pack the joint like they always do and make life difficult for the opposition like they always do but let’s forget all that for a second.
This one is all about backing a Pete Carroll coached team coming off a loss. Pete Carroll is a freak that hates to lose at any time and it doesn’t matter if it’s a game against a local high school team or a playoff game in January. He drills it into his players’ heads over and over that the only thing that matters is winning. When his team scores in the preseason he celebrates like a madman before congratulating his players like they just completed a drive in the final minute of the fourth quarter to win it. In the first preseason game against Denver last week, there were several interviews with players and coaches throughout the game and the only thing any of them wanted to talk about was the scoreboard. When asked about the upcoming season, Seahawks players and coaches responded with these beauties: “We need to score here” and “we have the lead right now so that’s a good thing”. In his NFL coaching career, Pete Carroll is 8-1 over his past nine preseason games with his only loss occurring last week. The Seahawks also lost to San Diego in late September of last year during the regular season, in Seattle no less, and there is no fu**king way in hell that Carroll has dismissed that. Nobody has ever put more emphasis on winning in preseason than this freak and you can triple those sentiments after a loss and against a team he lost to last time out. Yeah, -6 is a ridiculous number in preseason but this isn’t some ordinary preseason team or coach. Pete Carroll is the reason you spot -6 in the preseason and the oddsmakers know it.
Pass CFL
SPORTS WAGERS
Philly +145 over SAN FRAN (1st 5 inn)
Make no mistake, Madison Bumgarner is a quality starter that could crack the rotation on any team in the majors. He has 158 K’s in 162 innings, an xERA of 3.17, which is lower than his actual 3.22 ERA. Throw in exceptional control and a groundball bias profile and you have a starting pitcher that has been dealing it all season. Bumgarner’s 5.60 ERA at home is a mirage because his peripherals at AT&T Park mirror his peripherals on the road. The difference has been bad luck at home, where Bumgarner’s strand rate of 64% is far below the league average. That said, his 4-6 home record and 5.60 ERA is still there and there are a couple of other factors that could hurt him here. Bumgarner has thrown 17 innings over his last two starts. In his last start, he threw 123 pitches, which was his highest output of the year. We’re not asking the Phillies to put up a crooked number here either. If Philadelphia can score one or two runs, this ticket has an outstanding chance of cashing.
Enter Cole Hamels, a true ace that takes a backseat to nobody in this league. Hamels has put up truly sick numbers and that’s after pitching half his games at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. The fact that he has just six wins in 21 starts is almost a crime but it makes him the most undervalued starter that you will see this entire weekend. Hamels has been almost untouchable over the past month with a 0.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. He’s been at his best on the road, with a 1.55 ERA compared to 3.28 at home. Over his last five starts his swing and miss rate of 15% is the highest in the majors (his last start it was 19%). In his lone start against the Giants this season, he allowed 1 ER in 8 IP and last season he held the Giants scoreless over 8 IP in their only meeting. San Francisco's .664 home OPS is next to last in the NL, leading only San Diego. Cole Hamels should never be this price against anyone. If Clayton Kershaw was traded at the deadline to Philadelphia and was making this start, Kershaw would be favored. Cole Hamels has been just as good as Kershaw. We’re not leaving this one to the pen, as it is solely based on Cole Hamels getting through five innings and dominating like he always does.
Baltimore +145 over CLEVELAND
Corey Kluber has been one of the league’s best starters and we’re not just talking about this year. He’s been great since May of last year and it’s no fluke. He has 187 K’s and just 36 walks issued over 172 frames with an ERA of 2.46. ERA stands for earned run average so the Indians brutal defense does not hurt that number and that’s a key factor here.
There is no defense for the Indians’ defense. It’s hideous and unwatchable. You win with pitching and defense. You can lose without one of the two, you will lose without both. The Indians are the worst of both worlds. They have one dependable starting pitcher, Corey Kluber, and one dependable defensive player, Michael Brantley. The Indians have the highest error total and lowest fielding percentage in the major leagues. They are the worst defensive team in the majors and it’s not even close. Their 89 errors are 12 more than any other team in the American League. The other 14 teams in the league have an average of 64 errors. The Indians have 25 more errors than that. The Indians are on a pace for 125 errors, the same number made last year by the Astros, which lost 111 games. Thanks to all those errors, the Indians have given up 56 unearned runs. The average of the other 14 teams in the league is 36. The Orioles have given up 22. There’s a defensive statistic called “Defensive Runs Saved Above Average” which computes, using a variety of defensive metrics, how many runs a team’s defense has saved above zero. The Orioles are first in this category with 37 runs saved. The Indians are a distant last with minus 79 runs saved. The next-worst team is at minus 41. If you dig deeper into the numbers, it’s the Indians’ infield defense that is the open wound — especially the left side of the infield. American League teams’ third basemen are averaging 13 errors and have a .956 fielding percentage. Indians third baseman have a staggering 24 errors and a .915 fielding percentage. AL teams’ shortstops have an average of 13 errors and a .973 fielding percentage. Indians’ shortstops have 15 errors and a .970 fielding percentage. At first base, the AL average is seven errors and a .993 fielding percentage. The Indians are at 12 errors and a .989 fielding percentage. At catcher, the AL is at six errors and .994 and the Indians are at 12 errors and .989. We’re not even mentioning all the plays the Indians’ defense doesn’t make which are not counted as errors, but have the same effect, because they are plays that should result in outs, but don’t.
You get the picture here. That horrible defense makes the Indians a huge risk as the chalk against an opportunistic Orioles team that finds ways to win. Incidentally, Baltimore’s .292 team batting average over the past 15 games leads the majors while Cleveland’s .243 batting average against southpaws this season is second last in the AL.
ATLANTA -1½ +187 over Oakland
Spotting 1½-runs with Atlanta is risky but the reward is worth the risk and there’s a very good chance of Atlanta’s offense going off against Jason Hammel. Looking at Jason Hammel’s performance over the years, it’s not surprising that he earned a “C” consistency grade. His home parks from 2009-2013 didn’t help; between Coors Field (+33% LH HR) and Camden Yards (+29% LH HR), it’s kind of a miracle that he survived at all. Things have been much more favorable in 2014, where he started the year in Wrigley Field and now finds himself in the pitcher’s paradise of O.Co Coliseum (-26% LH HR). Hammel is coming off back-to-back quality starts in which he allowed just one run combined over 12 innings. However, both games were at home. In his last road start, Hammel was tagged for eight runs in 4.1 innings at Houston. In his three road starts since being traded to Oakland, Hammel is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.80. Over his last 24 innings, he’s walked 13 batters while whiffing 16. Since coming over from Chicago, Hammel’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball of 37%24%/39% is weak at best. If you evaluate him in terms of ERA, 2012 (really his only good year at this level) now looks like a blind squirrel finding a nut. Current Braves have 25 hits against Hammel in 81 career AB’s for a BA of .309.
The A’s .242 batting average against southpaws is dead last in the AL and third last in the league. Alex Wood is a southpaw and he’s also one of the best in the business. Over his last five starts covering 31 frames, Wood has struck out 37 batters. Over that same stretch, his line-drive rate of just 13% is the lowest in the majors. Alex Wood has been one of the game's most dominant pitchers during his home starts in 2014 with an xERA of 2.41 a 1.19 WHIP, 10.3 K’s/9, 1.9 BB/9, and a 47% groundball rate. The best news is that the A’s have never faced Wood and they’re coming off a stretch of games in which they scored 1, 2, 0 and 3 runs in four of their last five games.
Nelly
Cubs / Mets Under 7½
The Cubs have only reached as many as four runs once in the last seven games but yesterday's loss was the first time in eight games that Chicago has allowed more than four runs. In the last 10 games Chicago is batting just .222 as a team with 3.0 runs scored per game but they face a Mets team with even worse scoring numbers in that span. New York has also greatly struggled of late against left-handed pitching, batting .219 with just 2.4 runs per game in the last 10 games. New York scored just four runs in getting swept in three games at home against Washington this week and Citi Field remains a very low scoring park with the 'under' going 29-25 and fewer than 7.3 runs scored per game on average. Zack Wheeler is having a solid season for the Mets and he has had eight consecutive quality starts. He allowed three runs in his last start for the first time in that eight-game run but the three runs came on just three hits. A few bad starts have elevated the ERA for Travis Wood up to 4.86 but he is coming off back-to-back quality starts in tough matchups against Tampa Bay and at Colorado. Wood pitched well against the Mets earlier this season and the Mets have just 12 wins vs. left-handed starters in 25 tries this season. Both teams have good bullpens and lower numbers should be expected in the opener of this series.
River City Sharps
Baltimore Orioles +135
Wish I could tell you some fancy story on why this one has popped up on our radar, but to be honest...this is a complete value play. We get one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Orioles travelling to Cleveland to take on Corey Kluber and the Indians. While we will acknowledge that Kluber has been tremendous, this price is way too high for us and when you consider that the Orioles are giving the ball to W.Y. Chen tonight, it makes the road puppy all that much more appealing. Chen has been really solid for the O's, other than his last start, and have won five of his last six outings. We fully know that Kluber can be dominant, but a little "regression to the mean" is in order and we think the hot bats from Baltimore may be able to get to the Cleveland ace. The Orioles are an impressive 10-1 in the last 11 game one of a series and 39-19 in their last 58 games following an off day. The Tribe hasn't been a real profitable home favorite as of late, dropping five of their last six games in that spot. We are recommending the value play here tonight with the Orioles.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Tampa Bay Rays at home against the New York Yankees. Last night my comp winner was on the Rays, in Texas, so why not play Tampa Bay a second-straight night?
I wouldn't worry too much about the pitching matchup of Brandon McCarthy and Alex Cobb, this one has me more intrigued as the Yankees are mired in a four-game slide and now have to travel to take on a feisty Rays team that needs one last surge to have a chance at the postseason.
Tonight's contest opens up a six-game homestand for the Rays, who will play 29 of their next 32 against American League East opponents, not to mention 28 of their next 32 against teams currently over .500.
Tampa Bay is on a 19-10 tear in their 29 games against teams over .500, it has won seven of 11 at home and is 11-9 since June 25 after a dismal 16-23 start at Tropicana Field.
Take the Rays here.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Craig Davis
My free play winner this Friday night will be the Eagles plus the points against the Patriots.
Yep, I started the NFL pre-season selections just how I always do... with a win. The pre-season isn't always the easiest to handicap, but it's been my bread and butter over the past five years and it was no surprise to me that the Jags got the easy cover last night.
Today's free play is the Philly Eagles plus the points mainly because I have no faith in the Patriots in the pre-season.
These two teams have been holding joint practices with each other this week so there won't be a ton of surprises and it wouldn't surprise me if it's low scoring in the first half. And since this game doesn't mean much, I expect the Patriots to show even less than the Eagles.
The Pats lost their first pre-season game of the year, 23-6, to Washington... and if that game score doesn't indicate just how unimportant the pre-season is to Bill Belichick and the Pats, nothing will.
The Eagles, on the other hand, feel like they have a lot to prove and will work to make sure they have an ample replacement for DeSean Jackson in the receiving corps. Expect a lot of guys to get a lot of work.
I like Philly to not only cover the number, but get the SU win.
Take the Eagles as your free play of the day.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Lions and Raiders to hold Under the total in preseason football.
Last night we saw yet another exhibition Under as the Jags and bears combined for 39 points, but fell shy of heading Over the total. That puts the preseason Under run at 14-4 through 18 games played.
Included in that stretch is both the Lions and the Raiders first games last week, as Detroit edged Cleveland, 13-12, while Oakland was on the short side of a 10-6 final at Minnesota.
Based on the lack of offense we saw from these teams last weekend, and based on the Overall Under preseason trend, stick with the percentages and play the Lions and Raiders to play Under the total this Friday night in Oaktown.
4♦ DETROIT-OAKLAND UNDER
Gabriel Dupont
Now on to my free play for today: Houston at BOSTON (-145)
I like the Boston Red Sox in tonight's game, as they'll continue their win streak with an easy win over the Houston Astros.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Red Sox - Pride. These are the defending World Series champions, and the fact they're in last place in the American League East and still trying to make a run even after depleting their rotation, it's admirable.
The SMART INTANGIBLE against the Astros - Losing, again. After last nigt's 9-4 thumping - which Houston led early on - the Astros have lost four of five and seven of 10 overall. They've also dropped eight straight in Beantown and 16 of 20 in this clash.
In conclusion, why BOSTON is my SMART PLAY in this game - Boston is too good of a sprint right now, having visited St. Louis, Anaheim and Cincinnati and completing its road trip 5-3. Now back home, and opening this four-game set with a 5-run rout against one of the worst teams in baseball, I'd say there's a good chance the Sox will keep their momentum alive.
The Astros have the second-worst road mark (21-36) in the bigs, while the Red Sox are simply playing for pride on their own field. Play the Red Sox in this one and forget about the pitchers - not worth wasting our time, i the event of a scratch.
1♦ BOSTON
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the San Francisco Giants over the Philadelphia Phillies, as I love the home chalk.
Good spot here for the Giants, as the Phils arrive on a three-game losing streak, after droppping a season finale at home, to the Mets, then losing two in Anaheim to the Angels on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Overall, the Phils have lost five of six since Aug. 8, when their four-game set with the Mets began. They've been outscored by a combined 23-13 in the five losses.
San Fran is just 5-1/2 back of the frontrunning Los Angeles Dodgers, in the National League West, but more importantly to the Giants has to be the fact they're a half-game back in the wild-card race. Wins are of the urgency right now, and San Francisco will be looking for the sweep here.
1♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Brad Wilton
Free play for tonight is the Chargers in the underdog role at Seattle.
Look, I am not going to blow smoke up yer ass y'all, preseason football is a crapshoot from the word "go", but there is one thing I have learned in my years doing this, and that is that I do not feel comfortable laying this many points in what amounts to a practice game.
Seattle is the defending NFL champs, but they lost at Denver last Thursday night. That same night, the Chargers looked pretty sharp in their 27-7 home win and cover as the field goal favorite over the Cowboys.
I am sure Pete Carroll would like to win this one in front of the home crowd, but let's not kid ourselves. this game means more to the Bolts and second year coach Mike McCoy.
I will grab the generous points and look for San Diego to find the back door late in this late night game.
1♦ SAN DIEGO
Larry Ness
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
I played against the poor-traveling Reds last night and ON Jorge Del La Rosa, who has just a terrific record when pitching at Coors Fields. That combination provided a 7-3 win but tonight, I will play the Reds. Cincinnati has an “ace in the hole” tonight, despite having dropped 12 of their last 16 road games and 15 of their last 20 in Denver. Bottom line is, the Reds have been able to count on Johnny Cueto, who can take over the major league lead with his 15th victory Friday night. He’s 14-6 with a 2.05 ERA on the season. He leads the NL with a 0.91 WHIP, is second to Washington's Stephen Strasburg in the league with 181 strikeouts and has allowed opponents to bat just .182 against him. Cueto is 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in his last seven starts, matching the longest single-season winning streak of his career from April 30-June 12, 2010.
The Rockies won’t have De La Rosa tonight but instead, will go with Franklin Morales (5-6, 4.97 ERA. He's 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA in six starts since re-joining the rotation July 3, which is a dramatic improvement from when he went 3-4 with a 6.13 ERA in 11 starts in the season's first two months before he was demoted to the bullpen. However, he’s NO match for Cueto. Take the Reds.
Ross Benjamin
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -138
The Mets starter Blake Wheeler has been in superb form over his last 8-starts as evidenced by a terrific 1.93 ERA in those outings. The Cubs starter Travis Wood has been terrible in 12-starts on the road in 2014 posting a very lofty 6.10 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. The Cubs are actually 3-games above the .500 mark when facing left-handed starters this season. However, they will be facing a right-hander tonight and they've gone a miserable 37-56 in the role in 2014.
Any money line favorite of -110 or more that's hitting .250 or less on the season, and they have an on-base-percentage of .300 or less over their last 15-games, versus a National League starting pitch with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20, has gone 107-45 (70.4%) during the last 5-seasons.
Jeff Alexander
Los Angeles Dodgers -169
The Brewers hit Greinke pretty good Saturday, but I expect him to have his revenge inside Chavez Ravine tonight. Greinke has a 2.66 home ERA on the season, and the Dodgers are 20-5 in his last 25 home starts, 12-3 in his last 15 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 7-1 in his last 8 home starts versus winning teams. Kershaw outdueled Jimmy Nelson Sunday, and I like Greinke's chances of doing the same. The Brewers have dropped 11 of 16 in the underdog role and 5 of 7 in the road dog role.